ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

as the sugarkane at kunde is a proven play, they can get away with it.. the Kunde 3 well is a wildcat, and to label the kennendy 1H a development well is interesting..

just checked the RRC permit for kennedy 1H,, yes indeed, it says sugarkane (creatacious) ... so they are not wildcatting the well, its on a proven play as such and cant be a wildcat therefor..

i guess the market is missing the importance of the Kunde discovery,, the fact the JVP's cant name it, and the conocophillips connection means the opportunity to get in while the shares are cheap is still there..

I think next weeks oil forum will add more to the share as information will no doubt come out there as well..

exciting weeks ahead in spite of the delays!! interesting days hey!!

 

[chance fate]

yeah agentm.. it's not an exploration well.. from aut's/tcei point of view with interests across longhorn, sugarloaf and ipanema, it would seem kennedy-1h would look like a development well .... from adi/eka point of view there's still uncertainty over sugarloaf commerciality..... or is there??!

 

[Agentm]

its been an interesting few weeks, even though on outside appearances nothing much has happened..

Firstly there was the Kunde 3 well announcements, it remained unmentioned for days then the JVP's decided the Kudne news was significant and relates to the sugarloaf well. so we finally get a late announcement days later to tell the markets here that something nice is happening in the conocophillips leases..

Then last week the 800 acres went through 2.5 miles south of the Kunde wells.. and we notice that the AUT announcement did not include these acres in their report.. what can you conclude from that?? why is ourJVP disinterested in 800 acres 2.5 miles south of a horizontal well that had 600 feet of continuos flares, and 65 foot flares and 40 foot flares and flares flares flares????

you have to wonder why.. surely the jvp would love such acreages...???

i have my own ideas about the TCEI boys and conocophillips alliance.. i tend to think the 20,000 acres we have is as much as we will get in the sugarkane proper... perhaps the rest is allocated elsewhere

I have the view we are indeed fortunate here to be on a potentially massive project with conocophillips with the possible existence of permeable natural fracture systems in this productive formation

i looked at the terms the last acreage was leased out at last week,, lets just say its as good as it gets for a landowner.. and i think our JVP has been single minded in pointing out the importance of the "neighbours well"
If this whole show for all these years, with a worlds top 10 corporation conocophillips on board, with 2 wells shut in (one being pioneers meeks 1), one on production, one lost, and one drilled horizontally, and one sugarloaf 1 well just itching to be tested... that sure makes it tough for me to find any reason to sell right now,, i am holding here!!

with the conference about to start in WA,,, i think this week has potential to be an important week for holders...

also pointed out by JJF in the UK,, conocophillips exploration executive is giving a speech this week in the USA,, besides me, i think a lot of interested ears will be listening,, maybe something will be announced on their thoughts about the live oak play..

http://www.conocophillips.com/newsroom/news_releases/2007+News+Releases/083007.htm


last week we saw the AUT and EKA stock make substantial gains yet our share is doing the reverse,, it will be interesting to see if we will continue to fall throughout the next few weeks or not..

great buying opportunities are around as many understand the conocophillips wells are not allowed to be named, nor the multinational named by the jvp's.. but it will have to change soon and maybe this week there are opportunities for CP and the JVP's to announce some startling news,, i can see two forums where it would easy for them to do it.. lets see if anything comes out of it!!

my view is that CP wouldnt be wasting 5 years of its resources, time and effort on a 170 bcf play!! any oil & gas exploration executive making decisions to do that would be terminated,, i think CP only look at the largest plays left around the place.. a oil & gas giant thats also a top 10 corporation on this globe wouldnt be in on a 170bcf play in my view, i think these chalks are holding something else.. Cp in my view only would spend over 6 years and the vast sums of millions of dollars that they have on multi tcf targets..

all imho dyor

 

[crab4t]

Agentm Is there going to be a live video or audio broadcast from the conference in Perth this week? If so where can I see details please? Regards Crabby.

 

[Agentm]

http://www.riuconferences.com.au/conferences/rec/

no high tech from what i can see..

just a bunch of explorers putting out their info, and a great time and opportunity to talk up some exciting projects..


just to keep you up to speed, its worth noting that our region has seen a spate of drilling into the chalks recently..

Keep a close watch on the HUGHES, DAN A. COMPANY, L.P well 45-055-33509

i have been watching this well for a while now, they started it with a permit to wildcat the 12300 region, they call the well the AUSTIN BROWN, they have drilled it vertical.. i have been scouting it for a month or two now, and on friday they announced a change and put in a permit to go directional off the same well as a wildcat to the same 12300 foot target..

Now these are not the first to go for the chalks,, in Bee county there are numerous, and all in the last 6 months i see frequently permits in all counties chasing the chalks, in live oak Pioneer did it with Meeks 1 and did it with another, and shut them in as they found the suagrkane..

The Austin Brown well, and the sudden change on the permit shows me that 12 miles south, the 12300 region is very very interesting to an operator.. you normally dont go directional unless you get some good shows on the vertical..

For me its an indication that the 12300 region is being closely examined by every operator,, enduring, pioneer, dan hughes, amoungst others..

i remain very very excited about whats in our 20,000 acres,, interesting days ahead IMHO!!

DYOR

 

[wallave]

Nice little rises accross all eka/aut/adi today. Half decent volumne also.

With testing suppossibly starting next week more people getting themselves set.

Not long to go now. Getting close.

 

[tomcat]

Guys,

Have a look at the AUT presentation:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/PriceResults.jsp?method=get&template=F1001&ASXCodes=aut

I particularly like pg 11. Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (Upper sone of 3 - the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) is more than 3TCF and approx 5000MMBC

Here we go:

Imagine if they find another play in the lower zones

 

[Agentm]

so its multi tcf in just one zone alone,, and we had the best shows in the lowest zone.. no wonder they are putting sugarloaf 1 on long test, that well is critical now, imagine deciding to drill to 21000 feet and risking the well with all that sitting there..

So how correct was couchy?? 100% right... bless that texan!! he is going to make my fortune.

well then who is going to sell today???

how do you value a share thats got potentially 3 zones that could all be multi tcf??

Blue sky here we come!!

 

[tomcat]

Guys,

Have a look at the AUT presentation:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/PriceResults.jsp?method=get&template=F1001&ASXCodes=aut

I particularly like pg 11. Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (Upper sone of 3 - the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation) is more than 3TCF and approx 5000MMBC

Here we go:

Imagine if they find another play in the lower zones

Just a further heads up, the reserves above are for the whole 200,000 acres...but its still exciting

 

[ricey]

Tom,

3TCf is just from 1 zone!

I have little doubt that we will get some amazing stuff from the other zones, especially zone 3 looks to be interesting.

Also don't rule out the Edwards!

I also believe that we could be close to the sweet spot with our acreage!

Which ever way I cut it I just don't see how ADI won't be a $5+ stock for those who can figure it all out and who are prepared to wait!

roll on the SL-1 testing!

 

[Lucky_Country]

Must be mad to sell out now ADI is in such a strong position with testing just days away the news is coming out this is a company maker.
$5 an almost certainty companies usually are conserveative with there estimates as well.
Blue sky here we come

 

[nioka]

Must be mad to sell out now ADI is in such a strong position with testing just days away the news is coming out this is a company maker.
$5 an almost certainty companies usually are conserveative with there estimates as well.
Blue sky here we come

GROUNDHOG DAY again. Seems I've heard this song before. Let's hope this time it opens up as I have a lot to gain too. After hearing the same tune for a long time there will be a lot of timid investors in ADI who will settle for a lot less than $5.

 

[Agentm]

just thought i would post the stuff that i could gather up...
remember we test zone 3 at SL1 which gave very strong shows and is very exciting in my view..
sugarkane is a proven play, so the Zone 3 and then zone 2 results just add more to the equation!!




Major Upside!"Sugarkane"
Regional Play

Production, well log analysis and seismic has defined a trap in the Austin Chalk Total trap area ~ 200,000 acres

Major companies hold a significant proportion of the balance of the trap area

Austin Chalk has produced 5TCF and 700MMBO from vertically fractured chalk in Giddings and Pearsall fields​

1930 –1970 vertical wells, mostly no stimulation​

1970 –1990 complete field coverage with vertical wells and fracs ​

1990’s –horizontal re-development of the vertical drilled areas, high economic success based on better productivity and reserves​

Conventional Austin Chalk​

Has virtually no matrix porosity (~2%) –requires fracture permeability for productivity​

Is normally pressured and has low porosity​

In the vertical drilling phases only 20% of wells were successful due to the difficulty of hitting vertical fractures in vertical wells​

The economics of third stage conventional Austin Chalk wells are
better than for the Barnett Shale which is currently the major US producing formation. ​

[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Background to Austin Chalk[/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]

Background to Sugarkane Discovery​

The discovery well was drilled by Burlington 4 miles to the west of Sugarloaf and has been producing gas and condensate for the past year​

​

​

Both wells are central in a 50km x 20km+ trap where early structure on the Fashing Arch, formed by drape over the deeper Hosston structure drilled in the Sugarloaf-1), allowed migration of oil into the structure and preserved porosity​

Tight chalk forms the lateral seal all around the Sugarkane trap. ​

[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Sugarkane gas-condensate discovery in the Austin Chalk has high porosity (6%+) and is overpressured[/FONT]​

[FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]Production, well log analysis and seismic has defined areas of interest in the Austin Chalk[/FONT][FONT=Trebuchet MS,Trebuchet MS]​

Sugarloaf-1 logs and shows identical to the Sugarkane discovery well​

Reserve Potential -Sugarkane

Additional information from expanded operations will be requiredin order to make firm estimates of reserves and economics

Potential reserves have been estimated for the 200,000 acre "Sugarkane"field by TCEI.

The field is expected to be developed with horizontal wells

Total Sugarkane reserve potential in the Austin Chalk (upper zone of 3 –the 2 lower zones assumed as nothing for this calculation)
is more than 3TCF and approx. 500MMBC

Based on these reserve and production assumptions, Sugarkane has better economics than conventional horizontal developed Austin Chalk and the Barnett Shale.

[/FONT][/FONT]

 

[chance fate]

hey agent.. check out the adi corp presentation if you haven't already... they've got 1 TCF potential for sugarloaf JV area... 600 bcfe out of the upper zone... very good!!

 

[Lucky_Country]

Just read ADI presentation and smile with satisfaction AgentM its all coming out now 1 tcf !
The news is out hold on for the ride

 

[Agentm]

Just read ADI presentation and smile with satisfaction AgentM its all coming out now 1 tcf !
The news is out hold on for the ride

no big ride yet,, not even $30k traded

market doesnt get it... 1tcf gives the share massive upside, but no one wants to be in on it.. pity.. i thought the announcements were brilliant..

 

[chance fate]

agent, you're right the market doesn't get it... reckon we've got to wait for the test next week to confirm the theory... or wiat til the end of the day when there's the usual rush...

 

[ricey]

Interesting that in the diagram zone 2 looks slightly larget than 1 & 3!

At the end of the day it matters not what the SP does today!

We have an amazing discovery, in time the market will work it all out!

regards

 

[chance fate]

Agree with you ricey... reckon there's some punters out there today betting there'll be more delays to the tests...which is fine for technical traders.. good luck... but reckon these latest presentations show a strong indication that the JV's are working with fundamentals as opposed to uncertain variables... so even betting on a delay could be more risky than it looks....

 

[Agentm]

just wanted to see for myself what number of wells and were involved with Pearsall and Giddings.

Pearsall i found 3361 wells in all the counties that have produced from the pearsall Austin chalks.

Giddings, I found 7828 wells that have produced from the Giddings Austin chalks..

remembering that those fields were not purchased outright by one player, here we have TCEI taking out the lions share of the play, in those counties you have countless oil companies over the decades producing from the chalks..

I dont think any had 20,000 acres of the giddings on their own! so we have done extremely well

this is a brand new discovery, with many decades of production to come, and a few players taking the whole show over!!

i know the market isnt excited about it at all, but when i see the JVP's comparing the play to these fields, and understanding that we have only one zone on production with three in total that are capable of producing, with 3 tcf on the agenda just for the upper sugarkane zone on its own!!

its exciting in my books...

This is one heck of a find, and TCEI has snapped up all the acreages.. so our jvp is happily sitting on the prime acreages of the eastern section of the suagrkane!

its a real shame the market doesnt get it,, but all we can hope for is that the sp doesnt tank too much on the 1tcf announcement.. fingers crossed!!