i think aar should have broken by now but it hasn't so here is a quick rundown of what i see.
the shareprice should run because it has a pretty impetuous chart with several attempted breakouts ending in higher support bases, cash equal to around half its market cap, further gold potential on site with a bullish gold market, solid future projects on the cards which can be comfortably funded, and a kinda blue sky trading range within reach. i say kinda because it has 10 year old baggage and i'm not sure how to factor that in. so i look around and see stocks with nothing but licenses, numbers and promises breaking out so why not aar? a few things -
management. aar has recently made a $7 million dollar profit, the first in 20 years. while this is a sign of optimism it also begs the question why did it take 20 years to make a profit??? they are also lousy communicators, wait ages between updates and a have a crappy website that hasn't been updated since the beginning of the year. the market moves to news ("buy the rumour sell the fact" etc.) and they don't have any. roadshows, regular announcements, being a squeaky wheel attracts attention and therefore money, but this mob are largely mute so theres no favours there.
commodities. while gold and silver prices are good, zinc and lead are pretty bad at the moment and looking at the
chart for those metals its looking pretty lousy short term. so any value to the shareprice coming from KP potential is pretty depressed.
america. these people are tanking because their bankers got greedy and went insane so they are dragging us down with them. this is bad news for the short term but i'm going to put a positive spin on it and hope it provides impetus for our market to decouple itself from america and become more independent and regional. but in the meantime money is bailing out of the speccies which includes aar.
liquidity. there are half a billion shares sloshing around out there so theres a lot of weight to move if you want things to happen. since the august cleanup there have been 430 odd million shares with plenty of low volume days just slowly chipping away at the pile. i'd like to see a top 20, and i pray for the day ASIC pins HIN's or broker ID's on share transactions so we can track who is doing what, but thats probably wishful thinking. a lot of volume appears after the price breakouts to beat the price down (eg. 3 weeks of 1-2 million shares traded then quick frenzies of 20-30 million), and this volume has to come from somewhere, so i assume the accumulation floors. other ideas here are welcome.
the chart. looking at the chart we see low volume support bases forming with the odd high volume breakout being contemptuously slapped down. the blue A, B and C are the bases which form at higher plateaus suggesting a strong support pushing the price up. but we see at red 1,2 and 3 how the price is hammered down with much higher volume when it makes a serious break into the .5c / tick range. even an awful day on the market like we had today its floor is still closing higher than the last accumulation base so interest is there, and like us there is money out there that thinks this company is currently worth buying. it's just being a bitch.
market depth. this stock has had a wall up for ages, originally at 10 and now at 11.5. i think its a psychological thing, like when you are playing risk and you pile armies into a border territory to discourage people from venturing there. in the game sense it makes it expensive in armies to take it out, and in this case it means it will cost about 1.2 million to break the 11.5 - 12 wall which is a reasonable committment for speccie players. yes a whale could swallow it up but they are generally playing with bigger fish so its tailored for the size of the playing field.
my feeling is a reasonable range for aar would be 12ish cents, 13 is blue sky but that price has the irrational exuberance hangover from august, so that may be a bit optimistic. however i think that this is what we are shooting for shortish term. it would require decent news to break that, and better base metal prices to maintain above that level. but that is just a feeling based on the whole greed / fear thing.
tl;dr version -
aar has good fundamentals and it should be worth more than it is. we know that, thats why we put a lot of money into it, but the market isn't playing so just hold on, resist the attempts by bigger money to shake you out and if you are a believer in rationality (though the market isn't at all rational) then accumulate more.
i'm not a financial advisor, just sharing ideas.