AAR - Astral Resources

[UPKA]

It was a good day today with good volume, looks like theres a bit of resistance at 10.5c and higher, will be good if it closes at 10c or higher tomorrow.

Just look at DIO after its had some announcements, which really havent said that much... I wish I had jumped on DIO.

AAR hasnt had any announccments since april, so it has been a while, should be gearin up for one soon hopefully.

I got back into AAR after the recent slump, looks like we'll stay below the 10.5c mark for a while, untill some sort of annoucement comes which, which i believe shouldn't be far away, as the quaterly report should be out in 3-4 weeks time.

 

[aaronphetamine]

A nice strong start to AAR today, already 1.4mill trades in less than 10mins and up to 10.5c.. Good start ! and buyers are buiulding up at the moment as well. Will it maintain today ...and in my wild dreams shoot up to 13c again !

 

[Lucky_Country]

AAR getting the new staff they require add for geologist in Thursdays West Australian for gold and zinc projects page 45 quite a big add as well not in the classified section but business section interesting !

 

[hangseng]

I remain perplexed as to why anyone would be concerned with short term daily fluctuations (unless day trading, which is fine). I refer all to my previous postings and analysis of AAR, the (additional) Geo is merely confirmation of the continuing progress of this wonderful company.

Tortoise and Hare, requires patience and we know who gets there 1st.

 

[Bluesky]

Anglo's quarterly report is due on 30th July according to Etrade. You guys think they may leave it till then to announce the rest of the details?
Any other analysis done on current charts? Charts dont look good at the moment.

 

[aaronphetamine]

Well I put the recent SP of AAR down to no announcements... There hasnt been an announcement since April, thats quite a while!

The SP jumped the gun reaching up to 13.5c, expeting an announcement soon.. but still there isnt one.

If there is one thing we can be sure of, and that is that the longer we go without an announcement, the closer we come to getting one !

Like Hangseng says, this company still has the goods, and if the SP is down for a little bit, it doesnt really matter!

Ang, you have been quiet around AAR thread recently? you still holding AAR mate ?

 

[jtb]

Anglo's quarterly report is due on 30th July according to Etrade. You guys think they may leave it till then to announce the rest of the details?
Any other analysis done on current charts? Charts dont look good at the moment.

Any of you descending triangle dudes care to comment on this?

I bought back into HLX recently @ 16c which was textbook and scalped CUL today from a buy yesterday due to the funny looking pennant-as per kennas post too I think (you blokes are a bad influence)

Piked up some more AAR today purely on T/A (and I'm in for fundamentals anyway)

 

[ideaforlife]

can anyone help me with this long term dillema in stock trading as I'm new to both fundametal and technical analysis. but it seems that before any announcement, the market has already reacted to the good/bad news for a while. This is understandable as before lodging any documents with ASX, lawyers, auditors....have all been involved in the process apart from other closer affiliates of the company. Therefore they have all executed their buy/sell decision based on the "inside" information they've got (referring to yesterday's front page article on Australian Financial Review).

So, why don't we simply follow the trends instead of waiting for n aann?

then here comes again for trend trading - take Guppy's techniques for example, basially the techniques provide a probability based on market behaviour, then again, if all of us use the same technique, then it collapses.

Sorry. if it sounds too pedantic, just a confused newbie.....

 

[Ang]

Well I put the recent SP of AAR down to no announcements... There hasnt been an announcement since April, thats quite a while!

The SP jumped the gun reaching up to 13.5c, expeting an announcement soon.. but still there isnt one.

If there is one thing we can be sure of, and that is that the longer we go without an announcement, the closer we come to getting one !

Like Hangseng says, this company still has the goods, and if the SP is down for a little bit, it doesnt really matter!

Ang, you have been quiet around AAR thread recently? you still holding AAR mate ?

Still have 400,000 shares and haven't sold one. I am not worried about the Graph as there are reports out in the market place about Gold going above $700 ++ and once thes guys announce their results which according to the MD are going to be excellent, I am sure they will be in the high teens before long. hang in there mate, I am
Kind reg
ang

 

[jtb]

Hey Ang,

Was crunching some figures last night after reading a 'Stockanalysis' corporate review on another base metal play and he (Peter) obliging compared a number of zinc plays and in-situ resource values.
What caught my eye was his resource calc's varied between $800 p/ton for a juicy 11% Zn + 3% Cu down to $160 p/ton for a bland 3.3% Zn (with no other companion metals).

So with KP's already delineated resource grading 7% Zn + Ag + Pb + Cu I figure we can probably get away with using the $800 p/t value.Even if we shave 25% off that and use $600 p/t than that gives us a reasonable in-situ EV of $3 billion
If we apply a billion to CAPEX that still leaves a $2 billion value - pending possible resource extension?

As mentioned a while back regarding the TNG comparison I think our >$100M MC should be just around the corner.

Cheers

 

[cuttlefish]

1 tonne = 2204 lb.
Zn=$US 1.59/lb
Cu=$US 3.59/lb

1 tonne of 11% Zn + 3% Cu

2204*.11*1.59 + 2204*.03*3.59 = $US 623

AUD/US = .87

1 tonne @ 11% Zn + 3% Cu = $715 AUD.

Do the same calcs for 7% Zn

1 tonne @ 7% Zn = 2204*.07*1.59/.87 = $282 AUD.

 

[Ang]

1 tonne = 2204 lb.
Zn=$US 1.59/lb
Cu=$US 3.59/lb

1 tonne of 11% Zn + 3% Cu

2204*.11*1.59 + 2204*.03*3.59 = $US 623

AUD/US = .87

1 tonne @ 11% Zn + 3% Cu = $715 AUD.

Do the same calcs for 7% Zn

1 tonne @ 7% Zn = 2204*.07*1.59/.87 = $282 AUD.

Hey Cuttel fish and JTB, what are you actually trying to say. I am not sure what the differences are in both your valuations.
Is JTB saying due to the grade of AAR's gold it is only worth $282/ tonne and using Cuttel fishes estimate what does that mean in gold value.

All I can say look at the 23 April 2007 announcment as per the extract below, in aug 06 and nov o6 they sold gold at $775 and $850 / oz respectivley:

Gold sales to date:
Campaign 1 (August 2006) 4,750 oz at an average price of $A775 for $3,685,448
Campaign 2 (November 2006) 7,200 oz at an average price of $A850 for $6,125,346
Total 11,950 oz at an average price of $A821 for $9,810,794

My prediction is an income for the financial year of about
$20M, coupled with some posotive announcments of gold Grades will see this baby fly back into the high teens.
Kind reg
Ang

 

[cuttlefish]

I'm not saying anything about valuations in my post, just showing nominally how to calculate in-ground value of a tonne of ore for a given grade (based on jul 11 metal prices and exchange rates).

 

[Bluesky]

Cuttel Fish and JTB, are these good numbers for AAR?
Have you got some numbers for Gold, i see Zinc and Copper only.
I reckon these calculations might come in handy Ang, i should learn this.

Thanks Guys

 

[jtb]

Cuttel Fish and JTB, are these good numbers for AAR?
Have you got some numbers for Gold, i see Zinc and Copper only.
I reckon these calculations might come in handy Ang, i should learn this.

Thanks Guys

G'day mate,

No thats ignoring the cash and gold entirely.

The pending income of the Au reserve has been well discussed however until we get the latest results nobody knows what sort of extension we may have (if any).
As I've mentioned previously though I would be very surprised if we don't get at least a couple of juicy intersections. How thick and over what area is the crucial point.
Gold in the fresh rock (that was the focus of the RC holes) will be extremely positive as it indicates a source for the transported product already mined.

Concerning the KP project I was just interested to see the values that a financial analyst was applying to Zn, Cu projects when figuring in-situ value.

Thanks cuttlefish, yes your figures were more what I had thought ($250 p/t = $1.25 billion).

I'm assuming the value range I discussed was allowing for exploration potential on top of JORC reserves (although the company discussed in the report was still proving up).

 

[cuttlefish]

Either way it looks pretty likely there's an economically mineable resource at koongie and firming zinc prices and falling zinc stockpiles certainly won't hurt the situation.

Gold prices firming up again won't be hurting their cashflow situation from the current gold mining operations either.

 

[Old monkey]

I am a novice as far as shares goes. Therefore would like to know more.
Can anyone please tell me what is the total in ground value of AAR for all its resources, be it gold, zinc or copper? How many shares have AAR issued so far?
What is the likely time frame for production to commence for the zinc and copper projects.

 

[jtb]

Either way it looks pretty likely there's an economically mineable resource at koongie and firming zinc prices and falling zinc stockpiles certainly won't hurt the situation.

Gold prices firming up again won't be hurting their cashflow situation from the current gold mining operations either.

Again focusing strictly on Koongie Park if we go off spot prices-

Ag $13 Oz
Zn $1.60 lb
Cu $3.58 lb
Pb $1.35 lb

Existing indicated resource is-

5.0 M Oz or 65 Mil
770 M lb or 1.2 Bil
220M lb or 790 Mil
111M lb or 150 Mil

Or approx $2.25 Billion

 

[vert]

looks like AAR is having another crack at the teens,
at 0.105 and slowly eating into it

hang on while im typing 0.105 just got smashed

maybe results are up sooon,

 

[UPKA]

looks like AAR is having another crack at the teens,
at 0.105 and slowly eating into it

hang on while im typing 0.105 just got smashed

maybe results are up sooon,

i think its related to RMS' trading halt... like last time when AAR shot up with RMS, prob the same reason.