AAR - Astral Resources

ideaforlife said:

Hi Guys, can we summarize the behaviours of these large buys and sells here today, after all, there must be some psychological activities and desires behind each trading, be it proft taking, panicking selling or "herd instint". If we can understand this then sure we have a better chance of knowing what's happening next?

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Go to this web site and put in aar and the story unfolds on the sales today, nearly haf the trade was between 9.9 cents - 10.5 cents, with big volumes the rest of the day was a lot of small investers stop losses being triggered, as follows:

http://stocknessmonster.com/stock-trades?S=ADY&E=ASX



400 - 411 4:10:58 pm 9.3 659,000 0.1 $61,287 12
387 - 399 3:58:55 pm 9.2 1,570,000 0.1 $144,440 13
384 - 386 3:52:50 pm 9.3 130,000 0.1 $12,090 3
383 3:48:34 pm 9.2 36,180 0.1 $3,329 1
378 - 382 3:48:34 pm 9.3 135,500 0.1 $12,602 5
375 - 377 3:46:05 pm 9.2 100,000 0.1 $9,200 3
372 - 374 3:44:56 pm 9.3 87,000 0.1 $8,091 3
364 - 371 3:44:10 pm 9.2 384,595 0.1 $35,383 8
357 - 363 3:42:08 pm 9.1 405,000 0.1 $36,855 7
352 - 356 3:38:24 pm 9.2 229,021 0.1 $21,070 5
348 - 351 3:37:53 pm 9.3 351,320 0.1 $32,673 4
335 - 347 3:35:19 pm 9.4 757,384 0.1 $71,194 13
331 - 334 3:19:00 pm 9.5 215,000 0.1 $20,425 4
328 - 330 3:05:58 pm 9.4 248,250 0.1 $23,335 3
323 - 327 3:04:42 pm 9.3 446,216 0.1 $41,498 5
322 2:49:54 pm 9.4 12,000 0.2 $1,128 1
319 - 321 2:49:16 pm 9.2 1,086,540 0.1 $99,962 3
307 - 318 2:48:24 pm 9.1 848,676 0.1 $77,230 12
300 - 306 2:43:39 pm 9.2 763,460 0.1 $70,238 7
279 - 299 2:43:34 pm 9.3 1,469,134 0.1 $136,629 21
276 - 278 2:29:00 pm 9.4 94,190 0.1 $8,854 3
271 - 275 2:24:00 pm 9.5 250,000 0.1 $23,750 5
267 - 270 2:10:18 pm 9.4 500,000 0.1 $47,000 4
266 2:08:46 pm 9.5 40,000 0.2 $3,800 1
263 - 265 2:02:13 pm 9.3 108,077 0.1 $10,051 3
257 - 262 2:02:13 pm 9.4 650,000 0.1 $61,100 6
251 - 256 2:00:37 pm 9.5 422,150 0.1 $40,104 6
250 1:51:27 pm 9.6 50,000 0.1 $4,800 1
244 - 249 1:48:24 pm 9.5 408,850 0.2 $38,841 6
242 - 243 1:39:35 pm 9.3 94,875 0.1 $8,823 2
239 - 241 1:39:35 pm 9.4 164,417 0.3 $15,455 3
237 - 238 1:38:37 pm 9.7 40,150 0.3 $3,895 2
227 - 236 1:37:48 pm 9.4 1,900,000 0.1 $178,600 10
226 1:31:38 pm 9.5 8,000 0.1 $760 1
222 - 225 1:29:41 pm 9.4 82,369 0.1 $7,743 4
221 1:28:16 pm 9.5 50,000 0.1 $4,750 1
216 - 220 1:28:10 pm 9.4 300,000 0.1 $28,200 5
208 - 215 1:28:00 pm 9.5 1,028,700 0.1 $97,727 8
206 - 207 1:21:16 pm 9.4 350,976 0.1 $32,992 2
204 - 205 1:20:44 pm 9.5 100,000 0.2 $9,500 2
203 1:19:04 pm 9.7 2,631 0.2 $255 1
198 - 202 1:19:04 pm 9.5 1,000,000 0.2 $95,000 5
196 - 197 1:18:02 pm 9.7 115,000 0.2 $11,155 2
189 - 195 1:15:45 pm 9.5 1,410,000 0.1 $133,950 7
188 1:12:51 pm 9.6 90,000 0.1 $8,640 1
187 1:12:51 pm 9.7 500,000 0.1 $48,500 1
183 - 186 1:11:19 pm 9.8 270,000 0.4 $26,460 4
174 - 182 1:05:43 pm 9.4 558,576 0.1 $52,506 9
168 - 173 1:05:36 pm 9.5 440,000 0.1 $41,800 6
166 - 167 1:05:32 pm 9.6 56,429 0.2 $5,417 2
164 - 165 1:05:32 pm 9.8 60,000 0.2 $5,880 2
159 - 163 1:04:49 pm 9.6 303,571 0.1 $29,143 5
155 - 158 1:04:46 pm 9.7 250,000 0.1 $24,250 4
150 - 154 1:03:01 pm 9.8 250,000 0.1 $24,500 5
141 - 149 12:54:14 pm 9.9 1,102,661 0.1 $109,163 9
138 - 140 12:39:30 pm 10 73,700 0.1 $7,370 3
133 - 137 12:25:12 pm 9.9 209,000 0.1 $20,691 5
116 - 132 12:23:48 pm 10 3,024,132 0.5 $302,413 17
109 - 115 11:19:41 am 10.5 446,333 0.5 $46,865 7
30 - 108 10:48:10 am 10 7,649,606 0.5 $764,961 79
1 - 29 10:05:54 am 10.5 1,205,600 $126,588 29

hey ang
what a day hey...
i saw between 12:05 and 12:20 no transactions the only thing that i could see was that the buyvolume gradually dipt from +4mil till about 2
was that buyers redrawing their buyoffer or does that happen when big volumes are getting transferred before dispaying the accual sale of the 3 milj

do i make any sence here???
cheers

Bull121 said:

Wow current price seems a bargain

Anyone know when the next announcement is expected and what its reporting on?

Thanks guys

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Hmmmmm, long time follower of the stock hey?

I'm assuming it was traders taking their profits today (this arv'y) as a hedge against negative sentiment across the board.

Interesting times, alot can happen by Fri

Bull121 said:

Wow current price seems a bargain

Anyone know when the next announcement is expected and what its reporting on?

Thanks guys

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You should ask Buy Sell he seems tohave a direct line to the Managing Director LOL
I feel we have the results of the gold grade coming out first which may or may not be the same good grade as the mine next door. This should be in the next week or so early July, as that is when the quaterly report is due, then we have the final end of year report late July and some where in between we should see what they are doing with Uranium. So plenty of upside, just don't listen to reports that peaple think they know what the reports say as this will be only known days before they are announced, once you see the volume starting to move again.
kind reg
ang

What can I say.Nothings changed but the price.Fundamentals have not altered.Picked up a heap today and will get more tomorrow.Its hard to find a quality cheap stock and I think this will go.PMRO that price went south but it doesnt worry me.Tomorrow average down then wait for rebound.For me a buy in point.Cheers.Keep the faith.

drasicjazz said:

hey ang
what a day hey...
i saw between 12:05 and 12:20 no transactions the only thing that i could see was that the buyvolume gradually dipt from +4mil till about 2
was that buyers redrawing their buyoffer or does that happen when big volumes are getting transferred before dispaying the accual sale of the 3 milj

do i make any sence here???
cheers

Click to expand...

It looked like there was going to be resistance below 10 cents, however as lunch time came and this is generally when prices are lower as the brokers go to lunch, the stop losses started trigering off. I would say that most had their stop losses at 10 cents and the ones that were not auto, would have panniced and sold. We just need to be patient on this on know as what we have experienced on the past three to four days and especially today is two months woth of selling at the last week of the end of financial year. Look at the all ordinary graph. Normally Go away in May and sell in June did not happen this year, however it is happening this week. I will give my example I am offloading in the next two days about $10,000 in losses to ease my capital gain for the year, however there is one stock I won't be selling and that is "AAR"
kind reg
ang

For some one who is very new to the markets, its really quite a reassurance to see all of you very positive for AAR, In my mind I beleive it all as well, but its good to see that all of you have alot of faith in AAR too.

Quite interesting to check out the trades today, It def looks like in the 9s is a bargain then, since the main sell off to the los 9's was for the most part involuntary, indeed the sell side isnt too big till 10c.

Well im first to admit that my Elliot Wave analysis was screwed.. haha no other way to put it. With the Elliot Wave some stocks seem to have alot of points for the wave points, all that it means was that the point ive put were wrong, and thats some thing that you cant really predict. all this means is i have to go back and re define the waves, and re check that i can still produce an elliot wave analysis from it.

Ang, what does this mean to your darvas box theory ? are you able to discount anomalies, if this turns out to be one ?

But yeah, a great stock and ill be putting in a buy order tomo morning b4 i go to work most probably. and looking forward to the ann's.

Aaron.

Just to put things in prospective, AAR is a gold producer when I have a good gold stock like this one I always comapre it to the Gold bulion graph. For thos of you that are not aware there is a stock called Gold as attached, this stock moves in the exact way as the price of gold bulion does on the market. the stock does not mine or anythong it is a cheaper way fo buying the gold bullion. 5 days ago this was at $78 it has gone to $75.92 today. This was as high as $80 in early June, so AAR has out performed the Gold price and is now down like Gold is down. We need to also keep an eye on the gold price as that may have a bearing fact on this stock, especially if it starts going back to $80-$90 or $700/oz
kind reg
Ang

aaronphetamine said:

For some one who is very new to the markets, its really quite a reassurance to see all of you very positive for AAR, In my mind I beleive it all as well, but its good to see that all of you have alot of faith in AAR too.

Quite interesting to check out the trades today, It def looks like in the 9s is a bargain then, since the main sell off to the los 9's was for the most part involuntary, indeed the sell side isnt too big till 10c.

Well im first to admit that my Elliot Wave analysis was screwed.. haha no other way to put it. With the Elliot Wave some stocks seem to have alot of points for the wave points, all that it means was that the point ive put were wrong, and thats some thing that you cant really predict. all this means is i have to go back and re define the waves, and re check that i can still produce an elliot wave analysis from it.


Ang, what does this mean to your darvas box theory ? are you able to discount anomalies, if this turns out to be one ?

But yeah, a great stock and ill be putting in a buy order tomo morning b4 i go to work most probably. and looking forward to the ann's.

Aaron.

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Darvas would have been stopped out at 10 cents today, so there is no darvas box anymore, part from a 13.5 cent resistance. As I have not followed the Darvas stop loss at 10 cents I am following it with a 8,21 moving average. I wouldn't mind you having a go at the elliot wave as this could be the down ward wave ready for the large up side. As I am no expert at the elliot wave wouldn;t mind some thoughts if any experienced elliot wave people are out here.

kind reg
ang

Well I just had a go at the new elliot wave, and I was able to find one very easily within AAR.

Ok so the first thing is that, all the price action we have seen since the start of AAR's run has only been Wave 1, within wave 1, we can see a whole elliot wave set, as numbered in roman numerals. wave one maxed at 13c, and since then has been back tracking as it makes wave 2, wave 2 is a corrective wave, and generally in a corrective wave, you see 3 waves within, which are labelled a,b and c. Some times there are 5 corrective waves, but most times its just 3.. Im not familiar with 5 carrective waves, im only new to this

Anyway so from the close today, it can be seen that we are at the bottom of wave 2, or we are still heading to the bottom of wave two, generally if i can remember of the top of my head correctly, the corrective wave 2, reaches about 66% back to the start of wave 1, now thats just a general number, not always the case. But basically as long as it doesnt go below the start of wave one, then the elliot set up is still correct. About 66% is around 8c, now dont panic, that 66% is just a general rule, chances are we could have seen the bottom of wave 2 already.

Now if this is the bottom of wave 2, and only time will tell, then we are in for great times ahead for AAR becuase wave 3 is a progressive wave and the strongest of all the waves, wave 3 is also usually the longest of the waves but can NEVER be the shortest, so chances are it will be longer than wave 1, meaning that the price could be at least 17c, if it does match the same length as wave 1, let alone go longer than it.

In my mind, im thinking that this could happen since ann's could be out in July.



Aaron.

BUY&SELL said:

OK - todays news is that I have spoken to Angus Pilmer, director of AAR. I asked if the commencement of drilling at Mandilla was in responce to the Ramelius find? he said no it was just a coincidence. I asked if they where expecting a Ramelius grade find? he said no, they have NOT found results at that level and they never expected to, but a good result nonetheless with 50,000 oz at a grade he would not tell me, but gave the suggestion of a similar result to grades already found and reported at Mandilla. He said results will come out soon, ie. we will not have to wait as long as the quartaly report in June/july. So should be out soon.

For me the most interesting thing was his excitment about the Dalgaranga project in WA and some news pending on Uranium???? It's no secret about uranium in the area but I got the impression that major good news was coming from this project.

So if we get a result on 50,000oz of gold at Mandilla at an ok grade, what next for the sp?

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Hi ANG,
just got back from Hols and would like to stick too what I said 100%. I DON'T RAMP. If Mr Pilmer said something diferent to you , then that's his business.
Good luck with aar, For the record I still hold with 1.2 million shares at an average of 6.9c and I'm not phased with this weeks down turn.

aaronphetamine said:

Well I just had a go at the new elliot wave, and I was able to find one very easily within AAR.

Ok so the first thing is that, all the price action we have seen since the start of AAR's run has only been Wave 1, within wave 1, we can see a whole elliot wave set, as numbered in roman numerals. wave one maxed at 13c, and since then has been back tracking as it makes wave 2, wave 2 is a corrective wave, and generally in a corrective wave, you see 3 waves within, which are labelled a,b and c. Some times there are 5 corrective waves, but most times its just 3.. Im not familiar with 5 carrective waves, im only new to this

Anyway so from the close today, it can be seen that we are at the bottom of wave 2, or we are still heading to the bottom of wave two, generally if i can remember of the top of my head correctly, the corrective wave 2, reaches about 66% back to the start of wave 1, now thats just a general number, not always the case. But basically as long as it doesnt go below the start of wave one, then the elliot set up is still correct. About 66% is around 8c, now dont panic, that 66% is just a general rule, chances are we could have seen the bottom of wave 2 already.

Now if this is the bottom of wave 2, and only time will tell, then we are in for great times ahead for AAR becuase wave 3 is a progressive wave and the strongest of all the waves, wave 3 is also usually the longest of the waves but can NEVER be the shortest, so chances are it will be longer than wave 1, meaning that the price could be at least 17c, if it does match the same length as wave 1, let alone go longer than it.

In my mind, im thinking that this could happen since ann's could be out in July.



Aaron.

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Well done Aaron looks good to me. Just to put todays move in prospective, the stock GOLD opened at $78.2 had a high of $78.60 and closed at $78.28.
AAR Opened at 9.7 cnts had a high of 10 cents and closed at 9.4 cents. I was disappointed with a lower close from the open howeve it reacted close to the Gold stock.
Kind reg
ang

aaronphetamine said:

Well I just had a go at the new elliot wave, and I was able to find one very easily within AAR.

Ok so the first thing is that, all the price action we have seen since the start of AAR's run has only been Wave 1, within wave 1, we can see a whole elliot wave set, as numbered in roman numerals. wave one maxed at 13c, and since then has been back tracking as it makes wave 2, wave 2 is a corrective wave, and generally in a corrective wave, you see 3 waves within, which are labelled a,b and c. Some times there are 5 corrective waves, but most times its just 3.. Im not familiar with 5 carrective waves, im only new to this

Anyway so from the close today, it can be seen that we are at the bottom of wave 2, or we are still heading to the bottom of wave two, generally if i can remember of the top of my head correctly, the corrective wave 2, reaches about 66% back to the start of wave 1, now thats just a general number, not always the case. But basically as long as it doesnt go below the start of wave one, then the elliot set up is still correct. About 66% is around 8c, now dont panic, that 66% is just a general rule, chances are we could have seen the bottom of wave 2 already.

Now if this is the bottom of wave 2, and only time will tell, then we are in for great times ahead for AAR becuase wave 3 is a progressive wave and the strongest of all the waves, wave 3 is also usually the longest of the waves but can NEVER be the shortest, so chances are it will be longer than wave 1, meaning that the price could be at least 17c, if it does match the same length as wave 1, let alone go longer than it.

In my mind, im thinking that this could happen since ann's could be out in July.



Aaron.

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hey nice work aaronphetamine, I am just starting out in TA so correct me if I am wrong, but from my calculations

wave A have a (sp price) length of .03cent, while wave C have a (sp price) length of .033cents, so this would put wave C down to a price of about .077cent. but this would put wave C below Wave 1, from the rules below it doesn’t say anything about if this is allowed or not??
I realise sp isn’t the best way to calculation the length, but my maths is a bit rusty, but I also measured the distance by hand still seems accurate.

Rules for Wave Count
Based on the market pattern, we can identify ' where we are' in term of wave count. Nevertheless, as the market pattern is relatively simplistic, there are several rules for valid counts:
1. Wave 2 should not break below the beginning of Wave 1;
2. Wave 3 should not be the shortest wave among Wave 1, 3 and 5;
3. Wave 4 should not overlap with Wave 1, except for wave 1, 5, a or c of a higher degree.
4. Rule of Alternation : Wave 2 and 4 should unfold in two different wave forms.

quote"Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everybody realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or larger." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

Thoughts on this?

The great thing about T/A is: you can use it to prove just about anything that you want to happen. So the first T/A used pointed to a high probability of something happening and it didn't happen. No worries: we'll do another one and all is looking rosy again. I don't know what will happen with this, but please don't forget to look at the price and how it compares to your entry...

Haha yeah thats right rub92me, I know exactly what your saying. But I think we all beleive the fundamentals of this company are really good as well.

And Fool, yeah about your end of wave c being 0.077c,thats what I got as well, but I just rounded it up to 8c

I dont think it will go down that low anyway. I would like to think that 9.3c was the bottom of wave 2 corrective wave.

Also, looking at the candlestick produced yesterday was a white inverted hammer, and coming of the back of a downtrend, a white inverted hammer, is a sign of a reversal.

here is my chart with fib lines on it. if C is expected to be around 1.618 of A then that is around 0.0865 which is also 61.8 of larger wave 1 and is still above minor wave 1 (i)

currently the sp is touching ema 40 which is something i use, in theory i like to see it bounce of here and should with an anouncement sooon.

i dont know the rules yet but am endevering to learn as i go along, tech/a or some others might be able to enlighten us more with knowledge on wave analysis.

im still holding and trying to find more funds to get more at these levels, probably the last time we will see the sp here.

i dont see a white candle hammer aaron?

Very Nice graph vert, and sorry about the white hammer, It isnt really a hammer at all, the tail is way too short, and its not even white!

I just assumed that from looking at the days trading range on comsec last night, but forget what Ive said.

I think your graph is spot on vert. Im also putting some funds together to buy some more as well.

also looking back at a longer chart the last high back in sept was 0.087 perhaps this could provide support and a reversal......

So what kind of week can we expect from AAR this week?
Im doubling up tomorrow so hope to see some upward action this week.
But it still might go down too lol, see what happens.

It was a good day today with good volume, looks like theres a bit of resistance at 10.5c and higher, will be good if it closes at 10c or higher tomorrow.

Just look at DIO after its had some announcements, which really havent said that much... I wish I had jumped on DIO.

AAR hasnt had any announccments since april, so it has been a while, should be gearin up for one soon hopefully.