A-REIT valuation model

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 15 December 2017

Last weeks resistance level got smacked out the door as the A-REIT Sector rallied on Tuesday on the news of a big bid for the Westfield Group. Westfield's finished the week up 10% with CHC, GMG, SCG and VCX also beating the rest of the sector for a change. Although the surge ran out of steam on Thursday and Friday the gains out weighed the losses with the volumes suggesting that there is still plenty of interest in the sector. There will likely be some selling toward the end of this week as International holders lock in profits before their shares go Ex-Div and then pick them up again at the Ex-Div prices in the first few days of January 2018. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 15 December 2017 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 22 December 2017

The A-REIT Sector fell on it's arse this week, falling despite a Christmas rally on the All-Ords. In the absence of any horrible news the only thing I can think off that would cause this fall is an exodus of foreign investments. Interest rate are rising in the US but stagnant in Australia, A-REIT divs are useless to foreign investors so they typically dump the shares in the run-up to them going ex-div then buy back in at the ex-div price (effectively pocketing the div). Hopefully there will be a rally after 2 January 2018. Merry Xmas and Good luck. .

[insert property sector chart here]

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 22 December 2017 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:



Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 29 December 2017

Looking back on 2017 you would be forgiven for thinking that the A-REIT Sector traded relatively flat for the year finishing down 0.68 of 1% while the All-Ords managed to grow 7.84% for the year. However if you look at the day to day movement in the Sector you see that there were plenty of opportunities for the confident to back their judgment and trade the swings. The last week of 2017 saw most of the A-REIT Sector go Ex-div and, as expected, the closing prices fell accordingly. I look forward to 2018 and anticipate there will be plenty of trade opportunities. I also expect the Retail section of the A-REIT's to stage a recovery (of sorts) as the spectre of Amazon on-line trading in Australia diminishes. Have a happy and safe New Year. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 29 December 2017 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:



The comparison table of this years closing prices versus last years closing prices follows:



Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[UMike]

Good work again this year.
Still got my BWP parcel and hope to take advantage of another Peak (swing).

All the best for the new year and hope to keep reading your observations.

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 05 January 2018

The All-Ords managed to close the week at a 10 year high. The A-REIT Sector fell for the second consecutive week. The All-Ords looks like it can go further but I suspect there will be a fair bit of sideways movement to come this year. The A-REIT's will likely lift on the back of business confidence and office occupancy but retail will cause a lot of sideways movement as shopping centres rebalance their store makeup (food hall, specialty shops etc) to keep customers coming in the doors. I expect the rumor mongering about the impact of Amazon will ease but recovery for retail share will likely be a slow one. Lots of volatility and likely lots of opportunity for the quick, brave and insane. Good luck. .

All-ORDS



A-REIT Sector



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 05 January 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 12 January 2018

The shine might have come off the All-Ords last week, as our all knowing fund managers and index managers returned to work after their ski holidays in Aspen Colorado and resumed their sell down of Australian shares but the A-REIT Sector positively started to rust. The surge in this sector from November through December was certainly a Christmas Rally as most of the shares issued dividend announcements and prepared to go ex-div. The sell down from late December is obviously more than a post ex-div share price adjustment. Despite positive jobs reports, business and consumer confidence reports and on going demand in the building industry the A-REIT Sector appears to be being shunned in favour of the mining industry??? How that sector can be seen to have more opportunity for growth and returns on investment escapes me. Many of the shares in the A-REIT Sector are now close to 20% off their highs and trading at or close to their NTA values. Is now the a time to sharpen the pencil and start buying or should we be worried that this sector is going to test the July 2017 lows? Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 12 January 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 19 January 2018

I guess the small comfort this week is that the A-REIT Sector fell less than the All-Ords did. Also the Aud$ climbed slightly above US$0.80. Also the North Koreans and South Koreans are sending a joint team to the Winter Olympics. The only thing consistent at the moment is the twit on twitter with his finger poised above the trigger for the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 19 January 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Thursday 25 January 2018

With only four (4) days of trading leading up to Australia Day, the bears and the shorters must have taken the week off, letting the A-REIT market drift sideways for the week. No major ups or downs. President Donald is doing a balancing act between letting the world know that America is open for business while trying to side step the FBI investigation into the pre election activities of his campaign team and his post election activities trying to suppress any investigation. One year on and the U.S markets have reached new highs with anticipation of deregulation and tax cuts but no-one seems to be happy? The planned wall will now be a fence (mostly pre-existing), immigration from the Middle East continues, trigger happy Americans keep killing and any negative press is fake news. Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Australian market is bogged down still struggling to get back to 2007 levels. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Thursday 25 January 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 02 February 2018


A very chop and change week with opportunities for the confident day traders on Wednesday. However I find it hard to get enthusiastic while all the negativity continues about property prices and the overblown spectre of Amazon hangs over the Retail Shares. The dip in auction prices over December/January was 0.09%. This represents only nine thousand dollars ($9,000.00) per million dollars in a property price. Also who in their right mind is listing their property for auction or going to auctions over the Christmas New Year "holiday" period? Yet all the financial sprookers and news readers were clamoring about the "severe" downturn in Sydney property prices. Geez, talk about fake news. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 02 February 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[Logique]

Defensive qualities Nulla. Equities are in for a bumpy start to the week.

 

[nulla nulla]

Defensive qualities Nulla. Equities are in for a bumpy start to the week.

The Dow Jones was down 666 points on Friday. While our market is nowhere near as overheated as the US markets it is likely we will see a rout on the scale of the DAX as the fear-mongers and shorters try to capitalize on the nervous punters. It will be interesting today to see if there is a flight to the "safe" sectors or just a flight to cash.

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 09 February 2018

I spent this week in sunny down town Broadbeach, just south of the Gold Coast. The week was supposed to be wet to start off with then a heat wave to finish off. Well the weather was fantastic all week. Typically, when I arrived I set up my laptop with the additional "24" screen to monitor my watch lists and various sectors. However, unlike previous years, as soon as I saw what was going on with the Dow Jones and the subsequent panic on the All-Ords (or robots out of control) I switched every thing off, packed up all the gear and went to the beach. There is an old saying in business "I can go just as broke laying on the beach all day as I can throwing good money after bad." At least this week I will come away with a tan. Best holiday I have had in years. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 09 February 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

hahaha

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 16 February 2018

I'm not sure if this weeks fall in the A-REIT Sector can be attributed to the Annual Reports coming out being worse than analyst expectations, the prospects of interest rate rises in 2 years, the booming (?) U.S. economy, the winter Olympics in South Korea or the ructions in the Australian Parliament over Barnaby Joyce and his adventures. Whatever the cause, the A-REIT has taken a pounding hitting ridiculous lows and the push down seems relentless. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 16 February 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 23 February 2018

Some good reports, suggestions of potential for take-overs and mergers, some spirited buying and the relentless sell down took a break for the week. The tables have been updated to reflect the release of recent financials. The earnings, price earnings, dividends, yield and discounts on price to nta, bely belief for some of the shares. Hard to understand why the A-REIT Sector is trending down across the board when the All-Ords is breaching 6000+. Good luck. .





The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 23 February 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 23 February 2018, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Capital", "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 23 February 2018. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 02 March 2018



The week started well with strong buying in the A-REIT Sector on Monday and Tuesday them President Donald opened his mouth about putting tariffs on Steel & Aluminum imported into the U.S and Malcolm and some of his best mates returned from their jaunt to the U.S and started spruking the so called merit of tax cuts for big business. Well the market knows that protective tariffs are bad news for any economy and everyone knows that there is no trickle down effect from tax cuts to big business, they just pay themselves bigger bonuses. Australia (and probably the U.S) needs real wages growth. This puts more spending power in the hands of the consumers, drives demand and boosts economies. Naturally the Dow Jones dropped like a jet that has run out of fuel and dragged our markets down with it. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 02 March 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 23 February 2018, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Capital", "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 23 February 2018. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[peter2]

It's not ready yet to go up, but it's getting closer.
The sector has been stronger than the XAO in that it's hasn't gone down as much.
The volume indicator TMF is showing accumulation.

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 09 March 2018

Someone reminded President Donald that Australia was an Ally and bought a lot of expensive military equipment from the U.S which could be bought somewhere else if our economy was stuffed up by President Donald's tariffs. President Donald decided to exempt Australia from the tariffs after sharing a secret handshake with Prime Minister Malcolm. This made Malcolm very happy as he hopes it will improve his polling so he can tell Ex-Prime Minister Tony to "stuff off". Our markets initially dived then rebounded when everyone became friends again. Then President Kim decided he wanted to be friends as well and proposed a meeting with President Donald. The world likes this. I wonder if President Kim and President Donald will share a Nobel Prize for world peace?

The A-REIT sector is still down, some shares more so than others. It looks like there is a lot of accumulation happening (a few "substantial holding" notices) however I'm not convinced that we have experienced any capitulation yet. The price/earnings ratios are ridiculously low on the majority of shares. Additionally most of the shares have very low debt to equity levels. IMO there is no basis for the extent of the sell downs. However what would I know. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 09 March 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:



Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 23 February 2018, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Capital", "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 23 February 2018. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 16 March 2018

President Donald sacked his Secretary of State. Not face to face, or by memo, or by letter but let him find out from a news reporter that had read President Donalds tweet announcing the staff changes. SURPRISE!!!!!! This has to be one of the biggest WTF moments in the history of the U.S Presidencies. Is it even a legally recognised form of contractual communication?
Opposition leader Bill (foot in mouth) did his best to help Prime Minister Malcom's chances of staying in power (have to wait to see the results of the next poll) with his premature spurt on Franking credits and SMSF in pension mode. The Greens in Batman electorate couldn't believe their good fortune in the lead up to this weeks by-election.
The five year chart for the A-REIT Sector shows that the sector pretty much tracked sideways for the last three years, finding support around the 1250 - 1280 points area and enjoying the odd spike before being pushed back down. The present position could well be an accumulation stage as the hopeful gather up some good yield bearing shares in the run up to the June 2018 dividends. The next few weeks will be interesting. Good luck. .



The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 16 March 2018 follows:



The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:




Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 23 February 2018, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Capital", "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 23 February 2018. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck .

 

[peter2]

We have to be patient in this sector. I know of one short term trader that's on the edge of his seat for this reversal opportunity. Check out XPJ (short term chart).

Scrolling through the REIT list I notice they're all ready to burst higher.
A few have started early, CMW, GOZ, NSR, SCP.