Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

A-REIT valuation model

A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 15 September 2017

To much conflicting news for me lately. One moment we are in a bull market then someone else says we are in a holding market with little prospects for growth. One moment we are reportedly in a prolonged period of no wages growth, the next moment we are supposed riding a surge of national income. One moment there are reportedly more jobs than before but the next breath is that unemployment went up. Consumer saving is up, consumer spending is down, consumer confidence is high, Amazon is eventually going to start up, Christmas is coming, and Myer's report was less than analists wanted but in line with year two of the managements five year plan. Maybe Trump is right, the market is a flood with fake news making it hard to really know what is going on. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-09-15.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 15 September 2017 follows:

2017-09-15 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-09-15 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

B]Disclaimer:[/B] These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 22 September 2017

Not a good week for the A-REIT Sector, down almost 2%. Apart from an impending nuclear war the negatives impacting out market seem to be linked to the tenure and plans of Janet Yeldon. Whether or not Trump will re-appoint her, whether or not she will serve out her term of appointment and the direction the Fed is going to take in respect of further interest rate rises. On the back of this our Reserve Bank hinted at the prospect of interest rates in (wait for it) 2018. This prompted the local big banks to have a "me too" competition trying to second guess as to how many interest rate rises there could be. Then the A-REIT Sector went all wobbly at the knees on the basis that interest rate rises would impact on housing property values, residential mortgage defaults, oh and by the way, retail spending will be down. Maybe sometime in 2018??? Smoke and mirrors, any excuse to organise a short. Meanwhile The A-REIT Sector is struggling along at February 2015 level. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-09-22 3yr.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 22 September 2017 follows:

2017-09-22 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-09-22 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 29 September 2017

Seemingly a better week for the A-REIT Sector, recovering almost 1%. However if you take ABP, IOF and WFD out of the equation then it was a fairly mediocre week for the sector. Westfield jumped 4.12% seemingly on the back of the improved prospects of President Donald Trump being able to push through his tax reductions. You have to wonder at what stage the U.S. is going to reduce its debt? Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-09-29.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 29 September 2017 follows:

2017-09-29 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-09-29 b.jpg

Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 06 October 2017

The A-REIT Sector started the week pretty much in line with last week then started to give up any prospects of lifting on the back of local data regarding a slight slowing in consumer spending (down .6 of one percent instead of being up .3 of one percent). Attributed to the rising cost of power bills reducing available funds for consumer spending. Everyone must have got their electricity and gas bills at the same time.

Also contributing was the Aud$ falling against the U.S$ because the Reserve Bank kept interest rates at their current level. Damned if you do and damned if you don't there. The inflation rate doesn't warrant a rate increase but low interest rates prop up domestic property values etc etc. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-10-06.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 06 October 2017 follows:

2017-10-06 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-10-06 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 13 October 2017

The All-Ords chart for this week looks fantastic and our market is once again edging toward 5900. However the A-REIT Sector is still languishing by comparison, struggling under the negativity surrounding our domestic property market. This negativity has been around now for several years however the implosion is yet to happen. In fact if anything we continue to have strong auction clearances, relatively steady property prices, and minimal mortgage defaults. A-REIT Retail earnings are still strong in the face of tightening consumer spending. Business confidence is high reflecting good occupancy rates in the A-REIT Office sector and incentives are fairly stable to encourage lease holders to sign on. Yet the end of the world is near....one day. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-10-13.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 13 October 2017 follows:

2017-10-13 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-10-13 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 20 October 2017

The All-Ords chart continues to shoot up like a cheap skyrocket on cracker night but like a cheap skyrocket it looks like it is fizzling out before the 6000 mark. The A-REIT Sector made gains this week also but continues to struggle to break above the 1346 point level. Trading since early July appears to be range bound, support coming in around the 1300 point level but not strong enough to lift the sector past the 1346 point level. Opportunities to trade if you are prepared to sift through the shares in the sector and work the small price differences. Otherwise a good time to soak up good yielding shares on the lows. Good luck. :).

xao 2017-10-21.png

xpj 2017-10-20.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 20 October 2017 follows:

2017-10-20 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-10-20 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 27 October 2017

The All-Ords skyrocket hit the 6000 mark early on Friday then the Australian High Court handed down their decision in respect of the 7 politicians under a dual citizen cloud. Five were given the all clear but Barnaby Joyce wasn't one of them. Who would have thought Mr Joyce (formerly "The Honorable Mr Joyce MP") would have such an impact on our markets. Within minutes of the announcement the All-Ords dropped 70 or so points before beginning a slow recovery through the afternoon to finish the week barely above last weeks finish. The A-REIT Sector also made gains this week, breaking above the 1346 point level but was unable to escape the Barnaby Joyce factor, finishing the week less than half of one percentage point higher than last week. Opportunities to trade the sector continue to present if you are prepared to sift through the shares in the sector and work the small price differences. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-10-27.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 27 October 2017 follows:

2017-10-27 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-10-27 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 03 November 2017

The All-Ords managed to close above 6000. WOW!!!! No US Property Market collapse on the horizon and minimal leveraging compared to 2007 and minimal margin loans compared to 2007, can our market push into new highs after languishing in the swamp for nine years? The A-REIT Sector also made gains this week, moving further above the 1346 point level, be careful though. Christmas is coming and it is possible there will be a rally in the lead up to these shares going exdiv on what, in some cases, is a very attractive yield rate. Opportunities to trade the sector continue to present if you are prepared to sift through the shares in the sector and work the small price differences. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-11-03.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 03 November 2017 follows:

2017-11-03 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-11-03 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
XPJ is making a serious move Nulla - if it can hold above 1350 it would be a positive sign
XPJ_9Nov2017_mark.PNG
 
Be careful though. Most of them will go exdiv at the end of December. There will likely be some sort of build up before then followed by a sell off just before the exdiv dates as overseas investors lock in their profits before coming back in when the shares drop by the div amount. Good to see the retail shares get dragged along with the non-retail property trusts.
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 10 November 2017

The All-Ords gained a further 1.23% this week powering up to 6104 and the A-REIT Sector played catch-up banging on a hefty 4.2% to close out the week on 1413.29 points, a gain of near enough 58 points. I suspect some shorters may have elected to close out or reduce their positions to be on the safe side. The Dow took a minor retrace on Thursday/Friday so we may have a bit of a retrace on Monday. Who knows. Good luck. :).

For comparison 30 October 2015.

xpj 2025-10-30.png

10 November 2017.

xpj 2017-11-10.png


The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 10 November 2017 follows:

2017-11-10 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-11-10 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 17 November 2017

The roller coaster ride continues. Malcolm is in a muddle as the gap between him and Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister narrows and his approval rating is now well below that of Tony Abbot when Malcolm Rolled him for the top job. Malcolm's majority has evaporated as the citizenship debacle continues to eliminate Senators and MPs on the basis of where their mummy and daddy came from.

The Same Sex Marriage plebiscite got the nod from the Australian populace despite some intense campaigning by the "Vote No" camp. Oddly enough, after the result, the "Vote No" section of the Liberal/National Party Coalition want to have a hand in drawing up the legislation to change John Howards Marriage Act.

Global investors seem, once again, to have lost confidence in the Australian political process with all its indecisiveness, lack of direction and a willingness to get embroiled in mundane arguments about minor issues while failing to address major issues. This is, once again, having a negative impact on our financial markets. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-11-17.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 17 November 2017 follows:

2017-11-17 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-11-17 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 24 November 2017

Amazon opened in Australia on Friday and I bought a washing machine from Bing Lee. The A-REIT sector took a battering early on Friday but finished the day and the week higher. We will have to wait and see if the world ends next week or the market comes to realize that Amazon, in Australia, is probably going to face the same setup and competition problems that Masters faced trying to compete with Bunnings. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-11-24.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 24 November 2017 follows:

2017-11-24 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:


2017-11-24 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 01 December 2017

This week the world had it spelt out to them as to who actually runs Australia. It is the heads (Chairmen and CEO's) of the big four banks. Collectively these eight people told Malcolm to stop stuffing around, posturing about not having a Royal Commission into the Banks and for him to hold an inquiry to restore global confidence in the strength and integrity of Australian Banks. Additionally they would help him with the parameters of the investigation and co-operate fully with their nominated commissioner. Malcolm promptly moved a motion to hold a Royal Commission into the Banks and the Superannuation Industry, particularly those Industry/employee Funds with Union representative on their boards. You have to give it to him. Malcom has surpassed Tony in the Back Flip Olympics by introducing a section for "Smoke and Mirrors and Sleight of Hand". The market dipped then rebounded as everyone had a good laugh. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-12-01.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 01 December 2017 follows:

2017-12-01 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-12-01 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 08 December 2017

The chart for this week shows that the A-REIT Sector appears to be hitting a point of resistance. With two weeks to go before most of the shares in the sector go ex-div it will be interesting to see if the xmas rally can muster another surge or if the sector is doomed to retrace once again. Good luck. :).

xpj 2017-12-08.png

The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 08 December 2017 follows:

2017-12-08 a.jpg

The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

2017-12-08 b.jpg


Comments:

1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 13 October 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 13 October 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
 
Unless I'm leaping to conclusions on this, but the Westfield announcement seems to have provided a fillip to the Australian sector. The Lowy's selling offshore but retaining domestic assets.
XPJ_13Dec2017_mark.PNG
 
I think that the Westfield Group take over initiated two things in the A-REIT Sector.
The first was the recognition by indexes that the Retail shares in the sector are oversold and represent excellent value for potential acquisitions, mergers and takeovers. This review, on the back of the over hype of Amazon commencing in Australia, has encouraged a spurt of buying (most evident in Scentre Group and Vicinity).
The second thing is a flow on effect from the first, in that shorters would have had to scramble to close out their shorts to lock in their profits driving even more buying.
I suspect that there could be some profit taking by those punters that bought into the sector on the lows but once they have been cleared out, the potential for quick returns by way of dividends could prop up the share prices up to close to month end when they go ex-div. I'm not holding any WFD but am holding a boat load of SCG and VCX. :cool:
 
I think that the Westfield Group take over initiated two things in the A-REIT Sector.
The first was the recognition by indexes that the Retail shares in the sector are oversold and represent excellent value for potential acquisitions, mergers and takeovers. This review, on the back of the over hype of Amazon commencing in Australia, has encouraged a spurt of buying (most evident in Scentre Group and Vicinity).
The second thing is a flow on effect from the first, in that shorters would have had to scramble to close out their shorts to lock in their profits driving even more buying.
I suspect that there could be some profit taking by those punters that bought into the sector on the lows but once they have been cleared out, the potential for quick returns by way of dividends could prop up the share prices up to close to month end when they go ex-div. I'm not holding any WFD but am holding a boat load of SCG and VCX. :cool:
My mistake on the ticker, Westfield of course is WFD. Price action on SCG and VCX, both doing well.
 
My mistake on the ticker, Westfield of course is WFD. Price action on SCG and VCX, both doing well.

SCG and VCX both retraced from Wednesdays highs. Today will be interesting. I managed to lock in a profit in both parcels (Tuesday & Wednesday ) and will likely re-enter if they drop much further today.
 
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