2008 - The 2nd great depression since 1929?

[aussietanker]

This is a great thread ... i have really enjoyed reading thru it .... but have realized that i don't understand as much as i thought about world trade etc ....

The US controls over half the worlds oil. It doesn't matter that china has a massive amount of cheap labour the US has even bigger amounts of even cheaper labour. The US will come out of this and I bet they start taking control of more oil resources around the world. They are pushing China out of Africa, they are working on Venezula, Iran's oil is looking mighty tasty.

He who controls the oil controls the world it's as simple as that. The US is going nowhere and I wouldn't be surprised if this whole thing was somewhat planned by the administration. It could be seen as economic war against rising powers Russia and China. They will have to re-evaluate the Yuan, and now Kosovo is independant the divid and conquer stratagy looks to be going the US way. They know the only way to take down Russia and China is from the inside out.

i'm a bit confused by this statement ...... but then again, i'm easily confused at the best of times ......

so can someone please explain what this means .... i realize that there is (some) oil in australia, the north sea, south america and texas .... but i thought that the majority of the worlds oil is owned and controlled by the arabian countries such as kuwait etc ...... and that they are the ones that "set the prices" etc .....

also, i dont think that it's too hard to see that there is a huge change occuring with a "balance of (trade) power" changing from the west to the east .....

however.... i wouldn't give up on the USA too early .....

and while i might get shot down in huge flames for suggesting this .... i also suspect that the current mindset in/of the usa is quite a bit different from the mindset of the british during the "collapse" of the british empire .... i think that many in the usa are very aware of this "transition" ... and are poised to take full economic advantage of it ... i suspect that for a number of reasons, at the time of the collapse of the "empire" the brits saw their economic and political influence as almost "god given" .... and just didn't see the rest of the world - esp the "colonies" as capable of "taking over the baton" .....

just a thought .... Ok ... shoot me now :

great thread - love it

regards
A|T

 

[wavepicker]

Yes Great thread.

My 2c worth: ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME

 

[chatty]

just want to have some discussion about this thread i posted few months ago. I still incline to believe that the world is heading the 2nd great depression and this time will be a lot worst than that in 1929.

I am wondering what type of investment should be moste secure under this environment and how do we survive under this situation.

My first guess would be gold.

 

[dhukka]

just want to have some discussion about this thread i posted few months ago. I still incline to believe that the world is heading the 2nd great depression and this time will be a lot worst than that in 1929.

I am wondering what type of investment should be moste secure under this environment and how do we survive under this situation.

My first guess would be gold.

In what sense do you think it will be worse than the great depression. Unemployment in excess of 25%? Bread lines and soup kitchens on every city street corner?

 

[nioka]

just want to have some discussion about this thread i posted few months ago. I still incline to believe that the world is heading the 2nd great depression and this time will be a lot worst than that in 1929.

I am wondering what type of investment should be moste secure under this environment and how do we survive under this situation.

My first guess would be gold.

Depression? what depression? I can't see a depression. What I see is a lot of people with mental depression because the value of their shares are falling. It is the money system that got out of control by reckless borrowers that is depressed.
There are no swaggies walking the roads, there has been nobody knock on my door and offer to chop wood for a bit of flour and a few tea leaves. There are no long queues outside factories full of people wanting a job, any sort of job. The banks are still open, the pay cheques are arriving on time, inflation is at a reasonable rate, and money has much the same value, related to hours of work and the cost of living today as it had yesterday.
Anyone who thinks this is a depression will be hard put to survive if we ever get another. It is all in the mind.

 

[chatty]

For me I don't see the diffrence between the situation today and what happended in 1929.

This is just the beginning and the world is so much integrated. US has been consuming the world resources for years by printing out money.

The world will need to write-this off.

Commodity price will start to fall. Australian Banks also rely on off-shore funding. With this financial crisis, no one wants to lend money and they also do not have the capacity to do so with every $1 you loss on bad debt it means you are squeeze and can't lend $10 out to the borrower. What will happen when all off-shore creditors start to call their loans back from Australia? Because they need funds deperately to fix the issue in their countries.


Unemployment in AUstralia will increase eventually --->http://www.tldm.org/News11/GreatDepressionOf2008.htm

 

[chatty]

you may want to read this.

http://www.brookesnews.com/081509ausrecession.html

Well if there is no depression that would be good.
I just want to prepare for the worse case scenario.
some kind of risk management.

 

[ozambersand]

There are no swaggies walking the roads, there has been nobody knock on my door and offer to chop wood for a bit of flour and a few tea leaves. There are no long queues outside factories full of people wanting a job, any sort of job. The banks are still open, the pay cheques are arriving on time, inflation is at a reasonable rate, and money has much the same value, related to hours of work and the cost of living today as it had yesterday.

Yet............
While it may not get as bad, can you state with utter conviction that what has happened to date won't lead to at least a scaled down version of the above happening in the next couple of years?
It's not an immediate process. First there is the speculator building company that goes broke because they can't sell all the new houses that they started and has borrowed too much in the first place. Then the tradesmen who go broke because they didn't get paid for all the goods they supplied to the houses that did get built. Then it's the turn of the retail stores that previously supplied goods to all the tradespeople. Then the workers who worked in these stores who now don't have a job and the process goes on.
Unfortunately, the ones who are most affected in the downturns aren't the ones who used excess credit in the first place who caused the problem.

 

[nioka]

Yet............
While it may not get as bad, can you state with utter conviction that what has happened to date won't lead to at least a scaled down version of the above happening in the next couple of years?

YES.

 

[wayneL]

YES.

Delusional.

While not predicting it will, or even probable, but... definitely possible.

 

[Glen48]

The next lot of retail sales figures for this month will be a disaster, last month was worse than the RBA thought the Stats we get are about 6 weeks old. MQG is on the brink as Allan Moss has sold most of his shares, houses prices are the highest in the World per income about 9 time PA earnings were it should be 2-3 . IF MQG go down and when you look at how soon these things happen eg USA one day there are rumours the next night the no longer exist... who knows your guess is as good as any expert.
all this is driven by Greed nothing else and commonsense goes out the window just like the last depressions eg the Tulips, South Seas etc.
Keep an eye on Patrick.net to see what is going down.
But there are buys out there the money just floats on to the next bubble.

 

[wayneL]

Yet............
While it may not get as bad, can you state with utter conviction that what has happened to date won't lead to at least a scaled down version of the above happening in the next couple of years?

YES.

I wouldn't be so sure.

Tent cities in LA:

 

[wayneL]

Yet............
While it may not get as bad, can you state with utter conviction that what has happened to date won't lead to at least a scaled down version of the above happening in the next couple of years?

YES.

I wouldn't be so sure.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...es-of-homeless-on-the-rise-across-the-US.html

 

[Aussiejeff]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...es-of-homeless-on-the-rise-across-the-US.html

WOW!! I'd love to profit from this. Which US companies make, distribute and/or sell these tents? Looks like a great growth industry to me. I WANT IN!!!


aj

 

[Glen48]

The next retail sales figures will show a drop in sales.. the last lot they expected .5% growth and got-.2%
How do we know the figures are correct and how many have a 9 to 5 job?

 

[nioka]

WOW!! I'd love to profit from this. Which US companies make, distribute and/or sell these tents? Looks like a great growth industry to me. I WANT IN!!!


aj

They'll be made in china and be retailed by Big W.????????????????? (Then used once, handed to a charity and handed out to the homeless)

 

[chatty]

It's been a while since I first started this thread. I still have an idea that the world is going to have the 2nd great depression since 1929.

Te governments aorund the world have been printing money like crazy and this does not seem to work.

Deflation period at the moment and it will continue for sometimes. Job loss will kee rising due the the contraction in th demand for goods and services.

Things will get worse before it gets better. Then, after this deflationary period when people feel more comfortable and start spending, business start new investments, the bank start to lend more money. All this printing money will come back to bite us with high inflation.

I am starting to think I should grow my fruit and veg and have some chooks in the backyard. I don't have any gardening skill though Don't know where to learn how to grow my veg and fruit from.