Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[barney]

The wager was always on, because I stood by what I said about the POG. I was calling another top, and got the normal bashing, of which we spoke, from the normal culprits. Well not all of them, I think a few thought better of it, this time around.

There are going to be solid levels of resistance to a rise I am thinking,

I was always expecting a retracement from the August Highs but not quite this deep, however, now that it is on its current cycle I wont be surprised to see it test $1120 early next year. I still think if it gets down to $1070 you will see a Bull stampede for an extended period.

Re the resistance to a future rise, i see it differently ... Last 2 months the fall has been sharp with minimal consolidation areas so the resistance on the return journey should be equally as "easy". The quicker it goes lower the more Bullish I'll get on the next leg up.

PS My wager debt has been paid to Joe. Anyone who wishes to confirm that may ask him with my blessing I am poorer for the experience but happy that I have donated to a good cause ... I intend to win next months tipping comp anyway so nothing lost really:

 

[Ann]

Hi Ann
Point taken. However I am a person who sees things and feels when metal comes but naive to read the charts.
But charts only based on past and then extrapolates. It important but can not work alone without fundamentals.
So let us see what your chart predicts today on gold price in next 6 months and see what the real price.
I will do the same to see how my fundamental analysis works. Of course environment changes and quoting 1971 is too far a shot.
Personally my four gold stocks are going south so I will be happier if your charts foretell better gold prices for sure

Hi Miner, we all need to work with what feels right for each of us, we will always do better working that way.

Here is where you and I disagree, The past influences the future with patterns of behavior worked into a chart. This is what I endeavor to read. If I tried to add fundamentals to the mix, it would make me second guess what I was seeing, and take away my pure view of a chart.

From now on it is wait and see. All I can offer is an opinion that higher prices are unlikely and there are a number of supports along the way which may send it up for a rise every-so-often. More likely to be a slow zigzag ride, down that falling channel.

Money may move out of gold at various levels along the way, depending on points reached by other things, such as the $US, Euro, the DOW. Even bonds may offer appeal to some as the interest rates rise. It is not simply gold all on its own. There is a gold quarterly chart I will revisit which also tells me a story. That will happen in December.

 

[Ann]

I was always expecting a retracement from the August Highs but not quite this deep, however, now that it is on its current cycle I wont be surprised to see it test $1120 early next year. I still think if it gets down to $1070 you will see a Bull stampede for an extended period.

I thought if it broke through that rising support it was going to be a hot knife falling. I had no doubt it would fall eventually. It could get down to a long term support from 2010 of $1058. That looks like a really strong level. If that is breached it may be ugly. Chasing down to the bottom support of the falling channel.

Re the resistance to a future rise, i see it differently ... Last 2 months the fall has been sharp with minimal consolidation areas so the resistance on the return journey should be equally as "easy". The quicker it goes lower the more Bullish I'll get on the next leg up.

Trouble as I see it, there are points where overhead resistance has been caused by past rises during its fall. These will all be offering resistance points. $1220 being an important level. Then 1300. Plus not forgetting that massive overhead falling resistance line coming from 2011. Three times that has smashed the price down really conclusively. The $US POG is really under pressure IMO. The POG in $A may be a different call.

PS My wager debt has been paid to Joe. Anyone who wishes to confirm that may ask him with my blessing I am poorer for the experience but happy that I have donated to a good cause ... I intend to win next months tipping comp anyway so nothing lost really:

I had no doubt you would give that to Joe, you are a really good sport and he is the quiet, awesome one. I would be happy to lose a bet with Joe as the recipient. Just not with those tipping contests, I am crap with those! So good luck!

 

[So_Cynical]

G'day So Cynical,
With those wee charts they have on Kitco, they are in Log scale and squished up small making them slightly distorted. Good for a quick overview, just hard to draw reliable lines on them. I have drawn a quick 10 year chart in Log for you, without the distortion of a minimized chart. You will see a bit of a different story, without the distortion.

Well that bottom trend line is/was broken, i would think a revisit of the 1050 level is likely, a potential double bottom, i really think that a good shake out would help, a proper bust like coal and nickel had, something under a thousand.

Thanks for the chart Ann

 

[Quant]

i think lows in gold are only days away , i rarely trade gold but i think opportunity is about to knock , will get back here when the day is nigh with some charts .

 

[barney]

. It could get down to a long term support from 2010 of $1058. That looks like a really strong level. If that is breached it may be ugly.

Agree although I have the Uncle point at $1046 ... (potential Sell Level just below that on chart)

Trouble as I see it, there are points where overhead resistance has been caused by past rises during its fall. These will all be offering resistance points. $1220 being an important level. Then 1300. Plus not forgetting that massive overhead falling resistance line coming from 2011.

The $1200-1250 does look a good "indicator" level. I think there will be a fair bit more pushing and shoving before we get a definitive move ...... My bet is a test of the lows followed by a sustained rise above the 2016 highs. Thats my preference anyway

I had no doubt you would give that to Joe, you are a really good sport and he is the quiet, awesome one. I would be happy to lose a bet with Joe as the recipient. Just not with those tipping contests, I am crap with those! So good luck!

I've had a good run on the Tipping over the last few months so I owed Joe a few bucks anyway!

 

[Joules MM1]

Barney :cup:

the Cayman Island long-nosed gator pattern .....i knew you'd ask ..

 

[barney]

Barney :cup:

the Cayman Island long-nosed gator pattern .....i knew you'd ask ..

Damn it Joules ... There are a lot of Gold Bears in the woods at present and if you are one of them I am genuinely concerned ..... More input from you please Sir as I don't wish to turn into Goldilocks

 

[Joules MM1]

Damn it Joules ... There are a lot of Gold Bears in the woods at present and if you are one of them I am genuinely concerned ..... More input from you please Sir as I don't wish to turn into Goldilocks

the ideal level i was/am expecting a reverse swing or at least an attempt to feign a reverse of "some" magnitude (as my technique has a requisit of ratios/symmetry I have to wait to see a low established and the construct of that)
is in the 1139 -1116 zone of the front month cfd (my measures say 1116's is a 'better' fit)
the 78.6% retrace of the whole upmove todate is also in the 1116's zone (metals adhere to .786's and .886's recurrently than say the usual .618's %'s etc) .....traders should be careful of using end-point to end-point measures like lucas/gann/fibonacci simply because they do not and cannot relate to anything other than two end points, so, in that regard they are merely random numbers ...the point of highlighting the .786% is that it is within a cluster of other ratios that are part of the larger construct (the bear trend)...woops, writing a book....

the structure thus far down hill has begun to essentially trend with all the usual abcxabc type lifts followed by GTFO levels where momo gets added and you know sellers are intentionally leaning....all the lifts dry up very quickly with rarely more than 6-7 points, the construct immediately becomes choppy and overlapping, so the bounce signals (with more downside to come) become clear very quickly...much of my trading consists of about 6 hours hey-hey sunshine followed by about 60 hours of choppy nuggets..sounds like a trend to me....

the one anecdote that is obviously clear, to people who can get out of the way of their own bias, is the extreme bullish sentiment at the swing high and obverse to that the extreme contracts of the commercials......so, yeah, the commercials probably need to close out more than they have.... participation is generally, in the current price range, low now, which to me adds to background of weaker longs not necessarily aggressive bears

so going back to the bullish extreme sentiment, it needs to be clear that after 5 years of bear market the rampant desire to own PM's is completely at odds with the % of the weekly decline(s) and the relatively minute amount of time taken in the current bounce....it just doesnt fit the picture of a new bull phase and yet fits the picture perfectly of a bounce that small traders (and trend following managers) want desperately to be an uptrend

the $DX is on a rip yer face off uptrend.....so, there's that......

my guess is we've almost completed A (up) and B (down) with C (up) to come ......but first we need to get a little palpable fear into the print......the kind of fear that makes the anti gold nuts come out confidence and wave the toldya-so flag around

i placed the symmetry boxes on the previous chart to show a little idea that price and time are playing out as they usually do, that the first interruption (the 2007-2009 bear for equities) is matched in the opposite direction currently.....these things of themselves are merely roadsigns and my experience is that when they unfurl in the same direction (price direction) they tend to have an expectancy of repetition, these are relative to size and of course the context needs to be taken into account, that means what type of moves (progressive or pro-regressive) .......i'm trying to avoid writing a small novel here, suffice to say; we know bear markets are excruciatingly long for bulls..... these bounces should carry a lot of mistrust and they don't !!

stepping much further back in the view, the weekly overhead downtrend line has printed neatly as the roof, so, from that perspective it is not surprising that the bounce has needed to take a big step back wards to regain strength to get thru that overhead and as can be clearly shown in this chart next chart
(hat tip @rvm for the find) the tap on the roof saw a big GTFO series of trades, the deep pockets getting out while the managers and small species were filling their boots, again, with current participation so quiet it is hard to see gold/silver heading north until we get to the level where every donkey is calling for much much lower levels



when all retailers start using emotive logic to describe outlandish lower numbers and it becomes normal type then we can expect that to play into the bid side

....i run out of texaco chances at 1116's for deep pocket bids to come play, even tho ratios are a guide and offer risk levels theyre secondary to the auction, the auction just agrees more of the same the levels can be immediately disregarded and with them taken out a re-profiling of the likely action to come
...much like vpoc's n waps etc, ratios are subjective requiring understanding of the relative size and context

where were we....oh yeah....predicting......hmmmm....



"small species" is correct, chortle ......

 

[barney]

the ideal level i was/am expecting a reverse swing or at least an attempt to feign a reverse of "some" magnitude (as my technique has a requisit of ratios/symmetry I have to wait to see a low established and the construct of that) is in the 1139 -1116 zone of the front month cfd (my measures say 1116's is a 'better' fit).. the 78.6% retrace of the whole upmove todate is also in the 1116's zone

..... so going back to the bullish extreme sentiment, it needs to be clear that after 5 years of bear market the rampant desire to own PM's is completely at odds with the % of the weekly decline(s) and the relatively minute amount of time taken in the current bounce....it just doesnt fit the picture of a new bull phase and yet fits the picture perfectly of a bounce that small traders (and trend following managers) want desperately to be an uptrend

.... my guess is we've almost completed A (up) and B (down) with C (up) to come ......but first we need to get a little palpable fear into the print......the kind of fear that makes the anti gold nuts come out confidence and wave the toldya-so flag around

these are relative to size and of course the context needs to be taken into account, that means what type of moves (progressive or pro-regressive) .......

....stepping much further back in the view, the weekly overhead downtrend line has printed neatly as the roof

....it is hard to see gold/silver heading north until we get to the level where every donkey is calling for much much lower levels

.... when all retailers start using emotive logic to describe outlandish lower numbers and it becomes normal type then we can expect that to play into the bid side

.... i run out of texaco chances at 1116's for deep pocket bids to come play,

What scares me is that after I read your response for the third time (and I stopped drinking beer)..
....... I felt I was speaking fluent "Joules"

Thanks for your input Sir J .... anything you say on Gold I have much respect for!!

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but to translate for those that don't speak "Joules" ...... 2016 has seen an expected bounce in the long downtrend but the current return to the downtrend is as expected. We could well see a possible Bull bounce from the current downtrend around your predicted 1116 levels depending on price action etc etc but without some sustained commitment from the Bull side, the downtrend remains the trend. I hope I have done your long reply justice?

Interestingly, if I have the above translation relatively correct, i agree very closely with your analysis, with the exception that if Gold actually dips under your 1116 level and reaches 1069 (almost to the pip) then reverses to the upside with some gusto, I have it pegged as the bottom of the Bear. I agree if it bounces off a level higher than that and doesn't test 1069, there will likely be a lot less steam in the pipes and all bets are off ... If it breaks the December 2015 lows I expect some personal pain with my Gold stocks!! ... I've had pain before however and will likely survive

PS Just noticed on that other thread of your reference to "Guitars" ...... If you are also a guitarist, speaking "Joules" just made more sense lol ....

 

[Joules MM1]

What scares me is that after I read your response for the third time (and I stopped drinking beer)..
....... I felt I was speaking fluent "Joules"

Thanks for your input Sir J .... anything you say on Gold I have much respect for!!

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but to translate for those that don't speak "Joules" ...... 2016 has seen an expected bounce in the long downtrend but the current return to the downtrend is as expected. We could well see a possible Bull bounce from the current downtrend around your predicted 1116 levels depending on price action etc etc but without some sustained commitment from the Bull side, the downtrend remains the trend. I hope I have done your long reply justice?

Interestingly, if I have the above translation relatively correct, i agree very closely with your analysis, with the exception that if Gold actually dips under your 1116 level and reaches 1069 (almost to the pip) then reverses to the upside with some gusto, I have it pegged as the bottom of the Bear. I agree if it bounces off a level higher than that and doesn't test 1069, there will likely be a lot less steam in the pipes and all bets are off ... If it breaks the December 2015 lows I expect some personal pain with my Gold stocks!! ... I've had pain before however and will likely survive

PS Just noticed on that other thread of your reference to "Guitars" ...... If you are also a guitarist, speaking "Joules" just made more sense lol ....

yeah, pretty much, minus the "predicting" word ....some techniques work fine on some instruments, but, lesser so on others, some techniques can be refined on some instruments and it's in this area of nuances that requires a keen eye for the different phases each instrument is going thru wile applying a technique honed for that phase on that instrument....

there's nothing that says gold cannot now go below the weekly downtrend low, shave off a hunj and then make like it's begun a real new uptrend, in some respects that would fit the weekly downtrend to a T......in that respect it first kills off a lot weak longs and then goes about creating a new set of weak longs, what Elliotticians call a B, a fake-out lower low, only for price to come back inside the previous range and make a slight new higher high above the previous swing high, low conviction in volume but mass belief for bargain hunters (retail and managers who are forced to trend follow) ....the auction does it's job very effectively, liquidity transfer......

also i did not mention that www.timingcharts.com COT shows commercials were at a significantly reduced STO positions this weeks report at -167K versus the swing low in late May 31st report at -214k
and on friday one of my ratios was hit on a marginal hourly lower low pog ..so relatively speaking and with context of the swing-sizes in mind (and the bull leg in $DX) we'd have to say there's a good evidence some commercials have unwound but not aggressively seeking cheap supply in the area we're in now, again, adding to the idea we have lower to range, that the contract size is extremely large compared to the weekly bear trend low, again, this favours more lower prices and it is precisely because of this anecdotal i wont be sticking to any predictive levels i'll be looking for signature moves that say there's an intent to rotate price north or an intent to force rebalancing of longs, as frankly, if gold was back on its bear leg we'd already be much much lower and i'm saying with regard to commercials make trend when they decide to make trend without me having to sit years of masters in economics, the gorilla in the dinghy




so i thought, let's take a gander at something diff, a diff pov ...
i'm fairly rusty in the du pique EW but this....

keep in mind it's a sunday study for things that make ya go yeah-maybe and monday i'll have a completely different perspective (levels levels levels, know your levels)

 

[Joules MM1]

cheers, Barney

 

[Joules MM1]

cheers, Barney

https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat
free to follow the timeline .....you'll need a 1 min cfd front month contract chart real time

 

[barney]

there's a good evidence some commercials have unwound but not aggressively seeking cheap supply in the area we're in now, again, adding to the idea we have lower to range,

i'll be looking for signature moves that say there's an intent to rotate price north or an intent to force rebalancing of longs, as frankly, if gold was back on its bear leg we'd already be much much lower

I know you've spent a lot of time on Gold over the years Joules ... appreciate you sharing some of your little pearls ..... or perhaps that should be nuggets

https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat
free to follow the timeline .....you'll need a 1 min cfd front month contract chart real time

Cheers M8 i still have 3 live CFD accounts with varying degrees of depleted funds

 

[Joules MM1]

www.timingcharts.com COT shows commercials were at a significantly reduced STO positions this weeks report at -167K versus the swing low in late May 31st report at -214k
and on friday one of my ratios was hit on a marginal hourly lower low pog ..so relatively speaking and with context of the swing-sizes in mind (and the bull leg in $DX) we'd have to say there's a good evidence some commercials have unwound but not aggressively seeking cheap supply in the area we're in now, again, adding to the idea we have lower to

this weeks COT -154k commercials so we're def in the hitting zone ...but ...with every small surge in the 30 second bars recovering average 4-6 points there's a sell the rally tag attached

that 1140 ish level is looking v. attractive .....the surges def look like an attempt to bid up, to look for weakness in the selling and maybe some games (no, really?) but bottom line is the auction is trending but not cleanly which again lends itself to the idea we have a strong swing north coming ....
i think the reverse signal will be yelling its head off when the baby arrives ......

thus far every series (30 sec bars) of bids/fakes/lifts, whatever they are, they come with clear set of instructions on the box, choppy, overlapping, quickly stalled out, the rips run into a brick wall and easily triggering must-buy-the-bargain for retail "true believers" ...so just on a price action basis, the signal to stay short or sell the lifts is clear ....the brick walls i refer to come in the form of ratio lengths, in other words the pulls in both directions are not random most of the time, in fact they allude to price structure and keep the logic of larger degrees of trend south a clear signal and that's the basic tenet i am using to trade this phase

look for the puke trade and mind the gap

 

[barney]

look for the puke trade and mind the gap

LOL ... Appreciate your commentary Sir Joules ... Next leg down looks like it might be brewing as I type.

 

[daveM]

Today Gold has a Bullish Fibonacci pattern AB = CD. So there may be a chance of a revovery in near future.

 

[Wysiwyg]

i think lows in gold are only days away , i rarely trade gold but i think opportunity is about to knock , will get back here when the day is nigh with some charts .

Quant? Do you use quantitative analysis or just like the name? I am keen to see your chart analysis. Thanks.

 

[Joules MM1]

strong leap out of the small channel in the daily swing - beware the fakes

 

[notting]

It had a pretty strong crack at 1150 and got smacked down.
I'm thinking the Trump inauguration has plenty of scope for international tensions.
China Just sailed it's aircraft carrier through Taiwanese waters and has rewarded Duterte President of the Philippines for bowing to China on its terms. Beijing pledged $24 billion in investment and aid when Duterte visited Chinese leaders in October, a landmark event after competing maritime claims had strained relations since 2012.

An easing of maritime tension and Dutertes request for the US to get out of it's navel bases in the Philippines is setting up the biggest shift in global security the world has seen.
If China is breaking up the island chain that has contained it's sea born expansionist intentions then they are posturing for invasions.

To date China has only being able to invade the countries on it's land boarders like Tibet and East Turkistan where it continues to carry out it's genocide.
China is yet to finish building it's multiple air craft carries which it will need to invade beyond the Island Chain in the South China sea if it is to expand further.

But never the less the gold price could see some strength if China goes for Taiwan or becomes more aggressive with it's illegal weapons building up on the islands it has created the South China Sea.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said on a visit to the U.S. last year that "China does not intend to pursue militarization" of the area. Recent satellite images show that China has installed anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapons on its man-made islands in the strategically vital South China Sea, upping the stakes in what many see as Chinese aggression and expansionist maneuvers in Asia.



This is all rather alarming but potentially boosting for the Gold price.