Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[notting]

So now it's the election, if Trump looks like winning at any point that would be good for gold you would think amidst market and global chaos!

 

[explod]

Just watching ABC business news and they report gold down US$3 when in fact we know it rose more than $10.

Interesting that they only quote the US gold price and yet they do quote the Aussie dollar so why not the Aussie gold price.

Its clear the financial world hates gold but with Aussie gold miners doing so well this year it seems very unfair to Mum and Dad investors that our national broadcaster does not inform properly.

 

[notting]

Just watching ABC business news and they report gold down US$3 when in fact we know it rose more than $10.

You have to watch the live charts for gold and commods.
None of the news outlets are on the ball with it, it moves around too fast for them.
Most finished well off their highs today which aint that bullish.
It should have been and was largely priced in even though most have corrected fairly strongly.
Perhaps their already using the run up to offload for December.
Let's see.

 

[explod]

You have to watch the live charts for gold and commods.
None of the news outlets are on the ball with it, it moves around too fast for them.
Most finished well off their highs today which aint that bullish.
It should have been and was largely priced in even though most have corrected fairly strongly.
Perhaps their already using the run up to offload for December.
Let's see.

Agree and thank you.

I have been into gold and silver for fifteen years and have a fair knowledge.

I question that its not made clear on main street media and I do not think it is any accident.

 

[CanOz]

Agree and thank you.

I have been into gold and silver for fifteen years and have a fair knowledge.

I question that its not made clear on main street media and I do not think it is any accident.

Who cares what else gold is priced in except what the major contracts trade on? Gold and most major commodities are priced in USD. The USD is taking a bit of beating today so expect commodities to do well, including GC.

 

[notting]

The fed did everything that was expected so gold should not have reacted so positivly yesterday and the BOJ did not touch interest rates but just went for assets. That's hardly a bullish change that deserved a gold run up. (no 'more' negative interest rates making gold worth holding)
It was simply a muppet led relief rally, sold into by pros, which is following through today.
Most goldies down around 3%
Positives - Trump is on the cards and if the fed starts to errrrrr about December then that would be a big Moooooooo for gold.

 

[Porper]

It was simply a muppet led relief rally, sold into by pros, which is following through today.
Most goldies down around 3%

Well this muppet entered AQG yesterday so let's see how it goes.

 

[Ann]

Ahh dear I feel like I am about to get another flogging like the one I got back in March 2013 when I called an end to gold as it was about to fall below the support line of the rising megaphone shape on the quarterly chart.

I am now about to call an end to gold second phase, with the same quarterly chart I have been drawing for many, many years. It has been struggling to break above the resistance line of the current megaphone pattern in which it has been traveling over the last 13 quarters and now looks quite weak as it curves back from resistance.

I am expecting it to progress downwards over the next few months and then spill out of the megaphone shape on its way down.

I am also going to put up a second chart, a 15 year view of the daily chart with a swing trade calculation of a potential price outcome of US$200 if it falls below support out of its bearish descending triangle.

I know this is all going to be upsetting and sound ridiculous for the true believers so bash and abuse me if you wish, I do understand your pain and I would be just as happy calling it in the opposite direction if I could see that on the charts.

 

[Porper]

I am also going to put up a second chart, a 15 year view of the daily chart with a swing trade calculation of a potential price outcome of US$200 if it falls below support out of its bearish descending triangle.

It isn't a bearish triangle. There is only 1 swing and it's terminated two thirds of the way through, which is usually the breakout area. it has no relevance as a pattern i.m.o.

 

[barney]

Ahh dear I feel like I am about to get another flogging like the one I got back in March 2013

I suspect you are right Ann ... about the flogging I mean:

Just for the fun of it .... I'm happy to have a small wager that the POG will hit $1400 before it hits $1200 ... Loser donates $50 to Joe. PS If it does hit $1200 ... $50 is all I will be able to afford Cheers.

 

[explod]

If one were to draw a line along the bottom points of you last chart Anne, you can see the long term steady rise of gold that I like. And is why I gradually accumulate bullion in the hand.

Gold for me is a hedge against currency devaluation and is hoarded as a percentage of portfolios for that purpose primarily.

It is also seen as a political canary in the cage and therefore controlled (in my view) in order to ensure confidence in financial markets.

Almost every Monday morning without fail the gold price falls considerably, which is a time when there are few traders. It would not surprise if it did drop to US1300 or below tomorrow. However as the real financial horror of Deutcher Bank is further revealed by Tuesday (a holiday over there tomorrow) we may see gold rise again considerably.

I do take my hat off to those trying to chart gold short term, but for me financial fundamentals (including my take on manipulation) is the only real guide IMHO.

 

[Ann]

It isn't a bearish triangle.

With respect Porper, a descending triangle is a continuation pattern, a continuation of a downward price is regarded as being bearish by common definition. This is not to say that all descending triangles will resolve as bearish.

I suspect you are right Ann ... about the flogging I mean:

G'day Barney! I can handle it! Starting back in 2005, I used to be on the really early un-moderated old wild west forum which was Kitco, a really awesome place of amazing information and hilarious people, before it was modernized, sanitized and repackaged as a gold pumping station for Kitco! Also I had the pleasure of spending a lot of time on Goldismoney, lovely people, lovely forum. Learned a lot in both those places over the years. So I have a lot of first hand knowledge of the mind of goldbugs, spending so much time talking to them over the years.

Almost every Monday morning without fail the gold price falls considerably, which is a time when there are few traders.

I do take my hat off to those trying to chart gold short term, but for me financial fundamentals (including my take on manipulation) is the only real guide IMHO.

G'day Explod, please forgive me editing your comments, it is not meant to be a reflection on the content by any means!

I think this Monday will not be an exception to what you have said about a falling price. I have put up the five minute chart for the last trading day for gold and there are a couple of overheads it needs to push through at the start of the next trading.

I prefer charting to fundamentals. Fundamentals always feel like manipulation, propaganda and old news whereas charts are a trail of exactly what has been going on without the noise up to the last trading moment. If I can follow the trail well enough and look at what is really going on without firing up my imagination with conspiracy theories then I can look at it all dispassionately without any particular bias other than the impression the chart is giving me.

The second chart is a two month chart showing a couple of indicators and how the price has been traveling each day and where it might be in the next two or three days, enjoy!

PS. A note about the bottom chart. Momentum went into the holding position on 6th September when MACD did its first cross above below 0 on the 6th of September. (Just saying!

 

[Porper]

With respect Porper, a descending triangle is a continuation pattern, a continuation of a downward price is regarded as being bearish by common definition. This is not to say that all descending triangles will resolve as bearish.

You misunderstood. It isn't a triangle. You only have 1 swing in it. Take a look at Bulkowski's chart pattern site, he is very good at defining most patterns.

 

[tech/a]

You misunderstood. It isn't a triangle. You only have 1 swing in it. Take a look at Bulkowski's chart pattern site, he is very good at defining most patterns.

Charting is in the eye of the author.
Which is certainly the case with the analysis presented here.

Selective definition.Unfortunately this is detrimental to serious
Analysis ----- disappointing.

Short term the downtrend has stalled.
As economies stabilize so money moves away from gold.

See what the US elections bring!

 

[Quant]

If you looking at Gold medium term all i can suggest is chart AUDUSD as they are siamese twins , joined at the hip . i think there are decent reasons to get bullish AUD longer term ...

 

[Ina amran]

Gold should be on the downside going forward
It should eventually test $1260 level per ounce
With the US having an election year and positive sentiments in the US market, the Dollar should be on the high side and FED towards the end of the year hopefully increasing their interest rates, will definitely impact gold.

Wait and watch gold carefully and see it fall to $1260 -70 levels to begin with.

 

[barney]

G'day Barney! I can handle it! Starting back in 2005, I used to be on the really early un-moderated old wild west forum which was Kitco, a really awesome place of amazing information and hilarious people, before it was modernized, sanitized and repackaged as a gold pumping station for Kitco! Also I had the pleasure of spending a lot of time on Goldismoney, lovely people, lovely forum. Learned a lot in both those places over the years. So I have a lot of first hand knowledge of the mind of goldbugs, spending so much time talking to them over the years.

The way Gold is behaving tonight I may to stump up that $50 a lot quicker than I expected

 

[notting]

Well this muppet entered AQG yesterday so let's see how it goes.

A little green at breakfast one suspects, but a lot of green on screen for shorts positions however.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

A little green at breakfast one suspects, but a lot of green on screen for shorts positions however.

I think gold and silver set to bounce up into next week.

I like a good kermit tea-sipping meme. Seen them?

 

[Porper]

View attachment 68335

A little green at breakfast one suspects

Only if you hold and hope... Losers all part of the process (50.0%) presently.