Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Smurf1976]

Check out WA dam inflow page 10:

The same pattern applies in Tasmania although not as severe.

Same as in the high runoff years basically just stopped, not a gradual decline but a sudden end to them, and occurring at the same time as in WA.

It is publicly disclosed that for planning purposes Hydro Tas is working on the assumption that future inflows will be approximately 85% of the previously accepted long term average.

An interesting point is that, thus far at least, inflows to the total system (Hydro Tas) haven't gone outside their historic bounds of 64% - 137% of the long term average in any individual year. What has changed however is that the frequency of high inflow years has dramatically reduced, such that the average has reduced even though the extremes haven't changed.

That said, if we look at it on the basis of individual catchments then the extremes have been broken certainly, with inflows to Great Lake being well outside of historic bounds during one year last decade. Well outside as in practically nothing for a whole year.

Something I've noticed is that when any of these records are broken it is generally by a significant amount. We don't go from a maximum recorded temperature of 40.8 up to 40.9, instead we go all the way to 42.2 just like that. Same with the inflow to Great Lake, the record wasn't breached slightly, the new all time low inflow is radically different to the past (although inflows have been within the normal range in subsequent years, actually quite high at times).

 

[explod]

I 100% stand by my comments.

You need to be more tolerant and understanding.

Loosen up Champ.

By overpopulation, deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels "we have a problem Ralf" and to not see or acknowlege that is unbelievable to this kid.

 

[wayneL]

You need to be more tolerant and understanding.

Loosen up Champ.

Tell that to the girl's parents.

Yes we have a problem. One of my clients today is a consultant environmentalist.

Her words - purported climate change is a distraction, many more issues we need to, and have the ability to deal with today.

This has been my consistent point and it was gratifying to hear the same thing from a professional in the field.

 

[explod]

Tell that to the girl's parents.

Yes we have a problem. One of my clients today is a consultant environmentalist.

Her words - purported climate change is a distraction, many more issues we need to, and have the ability to deal with today.

This has been my consistent point and it was gratifying to hear the same thing from a professional in the field.

Yes, an inconvenient distraction, but we have to face the issue and err on the side of caution.

It appears (is, in my take), a problem, so putting the head in the sand is not going to help the distressed younger generation.

They need us to care and bloody well see us do something about it.

 

[wayneL]

Yes, an inconvenient distraction, but we have to face the issue and err on the side of caution.

It appears (is, in my take), a problem, so putting the head in the sand is not going to help the distressed younger generation.

They need us to care and bloody well see us do something about it.

Plod I believe you are one of the few who does.

The worst form of.... err.... denial, is to crow about climate change yet live your life as if you don't believe it.

eg Al Gore
David Suzuki
The thousands of delegates meeting at exotic locations every year, living high on the hog.
The stupid bitch that lectures me for buying a bottle of water, from her Range Rover and trolley full of overpackaged junk food, about to go home to an energy hungry house

 

[luutzu]

Plod I believe you are one of the few who does.

The worst form of.... err.... denial, is to crow about climate change yet live your life as if you don't believe it.

eg Al Gore
David Suzuki
The thousands of delegates meeting at exotic locations every year, living high on the hog.
The stupid bitch that lectures me for buying a bottle of water, from her Range Rover and trolley full of overpackaged junk food, about to go home to an energy hungry house

Ey Wayne, sorry for the lost.

But Tisme and others are right though, you can't take that tragedy out on those who are trying to save lives too - not theirs because these are old farts who'll be long gone before the real bad stuff (might) happen.

And while those "leaders" are hypocrites, can't say the same for the good folks here and the others out there.

And why do you buy bottled water? We all know that if you're to spend money on any drink, something have to be added to the water to make it worthwhile. Why pay $2 for a bottle when you can spend $2 and have a tub of it at home?

 

[SirRumpole]

Sorry Wayne, but sticking your head in the sand doesn't work

Antarctic ice shelf collapse and unstoppable sea level rise 'very likely' without tough climate action, say scientists

Warming of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above current levels could lead to "unstoppable" sea level rise that would last for thousands of years, according to a new model of Antarctic ice sheets.

The new model, published today in Nature, shows that such temperatures would result in 80 to 85 per cent loss of major Antarctic ice shelves, something that is possible by the end of the century under existing IPCC scenarios.

Collapse of the ice shelves would trigger a rapid melt of the Antarctic ice sheets, releasing vast amounts of Earth's freshwater stores into the ocean, said the researchers.

The IPCC reports have said the collapse of the ice shelves was unlikely whereas we're showing it's actually a very likely scenario.
Dr Chris Fogwill, University of New South Wales

By 2100 this would add up to 40 centimetres to sea levels, melt rate would continue to accelerate until 2300, and sea levels would continue to rise after that for thousands of years.

The good news, said the scientists, is that their research suggests it's not too late to stop this, if we're prepared to take tough action to reduce greenhouse emissions.

"A lot of people are out there saying there's no point -- we're in that world now where it's all going to happen," said researcher Dr Chris Fogwill of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales.

"But actually, what this modelling shows is there is still an opportunity, even now, to keep below these thresholds, where we avoid that long-term commitment."
What do you think of the findings? Have your say in the comments below.

Antarctic contribution to sea level rise underestimated

The Earth is currently experiencing one of the highest rates of sea level rise for thousands of years, linked to global warming.

According to the IPCC global sea levels could rise over current levels by about 30 to 100 centimetres by 2100, depending on emission scenarios, with the main contributors being expansion of the warming oceans and melting of the Greenland icesheet and other land glaciers.
YouTube: Animation of Antarctic melt model with a high emission scenario (Courtesy Golledge et al.)

IPCC emission scenarios
The IPCC gives four scenarios, called RCPs, of how the planet will heat by 2100, according to the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere.

RCP 2.6 - Low emissions
Emissions peak at 2020; are halved by 2050 and are zero by 2100. Temperatures do not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

RCP 4.5 - Intermediate emissions
Emissions peak 2040. Temperatures reach 2.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

RCP 6 - Intermediate emissions
Emissions peak in 2060. Temperatures reach 3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

RCP 8.5 - High emissions
Business as usual - emissions continue to increase. Temperatures reach 4.3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

To date it has been thought that melting of Antarctic ice sheet would contribute very little to future sea-level rise -- just 4 to 5 centimetres at most.

But, said Dr Fogwill, these conclusions were reached using models that were not sophisticated enough to show major ice shelf collapse.

Dr Fogwill and a team led, by Dr Nicholas Golledge, from Victoria University in New Zealand, have developed the best model yet of the response of Antarctica to different scenarios of global warming. They have found the IPCC has been underestimating the contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise.

"The IPCC reports have said the collapse of the ice shelves was unlikely whereas we're showing it's actually a very likely scenario."

Unlike most climate models, which are run over centuries at most, the new model was run over 5,000 years to estimate the full impact of global warming on ice sheets.

The model showed that Antarctic ice would remain "incredibly stable" over 5,000 years at the lowest IPCC emission scenario, but ice shelves would collapse under all the other scenarios.

"In those higher concentration pathways we destabilise those ice shelves," said Dr Fogwill.

Collapse of the ice shelves under such scenarios would lead to Antarctic ice sheets contributing around 40 centimetres rather than 4 centimetres to sea level by 2100, said Dr Fogwill.

But, he said, it would not be until 2300 that the Antarctic ice melt rate would peak. By that stage the not-so-frozen continent would be contributing as much as 3 metres to sea level rise.
Unstoppable sea-level rise under high emission scenarios

Due to the very slow response of the massive Antarctic ice sheets to global warming, Antarctic contribution to sea level rise would be "unstoppable" for thousands of years, and could be as much as 10 metres by 5000, according to the model.

These estimates are most conservative, said Dr Fogwill, not taking into account "polar amplification", which is the extra warming occurring at the poles.

The last time Earth experienced CO2 levels similar to today's was 3 million years ago and at that time sea levels at that time were a staggering 20 metres higher, said the researchers.

The emission controls required to prevent Antarctic ice shelf collapse are tougher than most are willing to consider, said Dr Fogwill.

But he and colleagues point to socioeconomic and ethical implications for future generations given the number of people who live within metres of sea level.

The findings will inform discussions at the upcoming Paris climate negotiations.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-15/antarctic-ice-shelf-sea-level-rise-warning/6853780

 

[basilio]

Yes we have a problem. One of my clients today is a consultant environmentalist.

Her words - purported climate change is a distraction, many more issues we need to, and have the ability to deal with today. Wayne

My observations. If a counsellor is helping a person with depression and a range of anxieties then its absolutely true that one needs to put aside the climate change issues as things they cannot deal with personally. The other issues are the ones to tackle as far as one can.

The use of the words "purported climate change" interest me. I can imagine that the word "purported" was inserted to soften the impact of CC. Just makes it easier to put it aside in terms of tackling other issues.

________________________________________________________________________

But outside this situation reality still bites.

 

[Logique]

Many are too hasty to portray AGW as a political and moral issue. Too many opportunists. When a moderate like Bjorn Lomborg is hounded out of the country, that tells you all you need to know.

Blind to obvious facts - Catallaxy Files - October 17, 2015 by Steve Kates
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2015/10/17/blind-to-obvious-facts/

Climate change, he tells us, “is not a scientific mystery but a human mystery. How does it happen that a whole generation of scientific experts is blind to obvious facts?”..

Carbon Dioxide: The Good News - Indur M. Goklany, with a foreword by Freeman Dyson
Copyright 2015 The Global Warming Policy Foundation
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2015/10/benefits1.pdf

8. Compared with the benefits from carbon dioxide on crop and biosphere productivity, the adverse impacts of carbon dioxide – on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, on sea level, vector-borne disease prevalence and human health – have been too small to measure or have been swamped by other factors..

 

[Knobby22]

.Carbon Dioxide: The Good News - Indur M. Goklany, with a foreword by Freeman Dyson
Copyright 2015 The Global Warming Policy Foundation
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploa.../benefits1.pdf

Instead of saying its not happening, this sponsored paper now says what is happening is good.

We get the advantages of plants growing better due to higher CO2 levels (for some reason Cotton is 50% more productive under the present levels while all the other plants are between 5-15%). They do admit that adding nitrogen to the soil might have something to do with this also, which is good to see as they are being honest here.
They do say climate change has effected the weather.

The argument is not without merit.
I also believe mankind can and will adapt.
An increase in CO2 levels is good for plants and oceans which helps us.

Somehow though I feel a bit cynical. As temperature records are going to be broken the next few years, I can't but help think this is just a new form of resistance in the face of undeniable evidence.We don't know the effects of a 4 degree increase in global temperature.

It is good to see a change in emphasis. When we started this thread it was quite different.

 

[noco]

Instead of saying its not happening, this sponsored paper now says what is happening is good.

We get the advantages of plants growing better due to higher CO2 levels (for some reason Cotton is 50% more productive under the present levels while all the other plants are between 5-15%). They do admit that adding nitrogen to the soil might have something to do with this also, which is good to see as they are being honest here.
They do say climate change has effected the weather.

The argument is not without merit.
I also believe mankind can and will adapt.
An increase in CO2 levels is good for plants and oceans which helps us.

Somehow though I feel a bit cynical. As temperature records are going to be broken the next few years, I can't but help think this is just a new form of resistance in the face of undeniable evidence.We don't know the effects of a 4 degree increase in global temperature.

It is good to see a change in emphasis. When we started this thread it was quite different.

Global Warming?????......What Global Warming?

"Tis the 18th October and still need a blanket on at night in Townsville.....Never known it in 44 years living here.....By this time of the year we needed our aircons on.

I say jail those bloody deniers.

 

[SirRumpole]

Global Warming?????......What Global Warming?

"Tis the 18th October and still need a blanket on at night in Townsville.....Never known it in 44 years living here.....By this time of the year we needed our aircons on.

I say jail those bloody deniers.

OK, so ignore all the record breaking high temperatures around the world. It's the trend that matters, not what happens to you on a few days of the year.

 

[Smurf1976]

OK, so ignore all the record breaking high temperatures around the world. It's the trend that matters, not what happens to you on a few days of the year.

If 175 of the ASX200 stocks fall over the next year, 5 close at an unchanged price and 20 go up then it's fair to say that the market trend is down. That all my holdings happened to be in the 20 stocks which went up doesn't change the overall trend of the market.

All these weather events, record temperatures and so on, are just individual data points just like individual stock prices. Put them all together and you get the overall picture which, in the climate change context, shows that the climate does appear to be changing relative to what was accepted as "normal" during the 20th Century.

Key point there being that most current infrastructure, agriculture and the like was developed based on the 20th Century understanding of what is normal weather. If that changes in a manner which renders the current infrastructure insufficient then there's a very real problem, potentially quite a major one.

 

[trainspotter]

OK, so ignore all the record breaking high temperatures around the world. It's the trend that matters, not what happens to you on a few days of the year.

OK, so we ignore the record breaking low temperatures around the world whilst we are at it.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/photos-fnlmwzlq-1227439575204

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/offbe...eaking-buffalo-storm-still-melting/ar-AAdCQYx

http://www.news.com.au/technology/e...uch-of-australia/story-e6frflp0-1227434649892

El Niño conditions were present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during August 2015. According to analysis by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, sea surface temperatures during August were near or greater than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above the 1981–2010 average in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201508

El Nino I think they call it ??

In 1660 it was the middle of the little ice age only 350 years ago. Interesting to note that the "previous" records for high temperatures were around the early 1900's ... was it man made then?

Temperatures in Death Valley (at Greenland Ranch, which is now known as Furnace Creek Ranch) soared to 134 F on July 10, 1913, the highest temperature ever recorded in the world. That date was actually one of five consecutive days when Death Valley recorded a high of 129 degrees or higher

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/death-valley-marks-anniversary/50027254


But bit bit we are talking about global warming and not "isolated" anomalies now aren't we? What a joke peeps.

 

[trainspotter]

My observations. If a counsellor is helping a person with depression and a range of anxieties then its absolutely true that one needs to put aside the climate change issues as things they cannot deal with personally. The other issues are the ones to tackle as far as one can.

The use of the words "purported climate change" interest me. I can imagine that the word "purported" was inserted to soften the impact of CC. Just makes it easier to put it aside in terms of tackling other issues.

________________________________________________________________________

But outside this situation reality still bites.

My observation ... you must be speaking from your own personal experiences and not projecting yourself onto others basilio. It is absolutely true that one needs to put aside their own agendas (think Al Gore) to fully comprehend as to how you are being manipulated by the media and vested interest governments.

"We can in the foreseeable future, develop macroscopic assessments of our social order, predict our future and put social processes under control. I am reasonably convinced that social technology can be developed so that it would be possible to gain considerable control over many societal processes. American social science has been, in large measure, geared to the needs of the ruling elites of our social institutions. The literature of social accounting can be thus viewed as an ideology which justifies the emergence of a new ruling class that will provide "objective", "scientific" and non-ideological advice to the "rulers" of society." - Michael Springer 1970,Social Indicators, Social Reports and Social Accounts: Toward the Management of Society

_____________________________________________________________________

But outside this situation the truth is out there if you are objective and not a follower.

P.S. Try and understand what Michael Springer has written

 

[Tisme]

I had an interesting conversation down the pub last night with a 76 year old cow cocky who still runs about 1000 head in around the Bay area.

I put it to him that the weather is very different to when I first came here in the 80's and he jumped down my throat declaring that the climate in Brisbane has always been unpredictable ... then went on to suggest things are really weird what with the two years of drenching a few years back, the mild summers, the intensity of the droughts out west, etc ...kinda debated himself out of his own trench with me just looking on.

It's old farts like him that got us into the mess we are supposedly him .... asset vandals who weren't content trying to turn the world into a wasteland in the 1940's, they spent the next two decades poisoning it with chemicals, clearing forest so returned servicemen with NFI how to farm could refocus shellshock, raising the water tables so salination killed of whatever trees escaped the dozers. No wonder the baby boomers rose up and demanded a voice independent of the brainswashed previous generation.

Silent gens should STFU and let Sarah Hansen Young fix the Liberal Party's 50's/60's mess.

 

[SirRumpole]

It's old farts like him that got us into the mess we are supposedly him .... asset vandals who weren't content trying to turn the world into a wasteland in the 1940's, they spent the next two decades poisoning it with chemicals, clearing forest so returned servicemen with NFI how to farm could refocus shellshock, raising the water tables so salination killed of whatever trees escaped the dozers. No wonder the baby boomers rose up and demanded a voice independent of the brainswashed previous generation.

Silent gens should STFU and let Sarah Hansen Young fix the Liberal Party's 50's/60's mess.

Yeah, I really shudder when I hear phrases like "Australia could become the food bowl of the world". Where ?

With decreasing rainfall, increasing urbanisation of our best farmland, more land clearing, erosion and salinity, the environmental lessons are being ignored when these National Party twits get $$$ signs in their eyes.

 

[Tisme]

Yeah, I really shudder when I hear phrases like "Australia could become the food bowl of the world". Where ?

With decreasing rainfall, increasing urbanisation of our best farmland, more land clearing, erosion and salinity, the environmental lessons are being ignored when these National Party twits get $$$ signs in their eyes.

You know when you're National Party territory in QLD...it's the place were the vast majority of locals live near or one the poverty line year round, the paddocks can't even support healthy growth of weeds due to depletion of soil stock, the trees and scrub look like they belong in the Mulga and the stands of gums left look like they have wilt ...... should sell it all off to the Chinese so they can invest money into sustainable agriculture.

 

[noco]

Yeah, I really shudder when I hear phrases like "Australia could become the food bowl of the world". Where ?

With decreasing rainfall, increasing urbanisation of our best farmland, more land clearing, erosion and salinity, the environmental lessons are being ignored when these National Party twits get $$$ signs in their eyes.

If those Labor Party twits had built dams instead of wasting billions of dollars on desal plants in Vic...NSW and Qld.we would be better off today...Those desal plants are rusting away in moth balls.

But no, they took the advice of another idiot called Tim Flannery.

 

[Tisme]

If those Labor Party twits had built dams instead of wasting billions of dollars on desal plants in Vic...NSW and Qld.we would be better off today...Those desal plants are rusting away in moth balls.

But no, they took the advice of another idiot called Tim Flannery.

In fairness the Tugan desal plant is currently providing water to Burleigh and around Mudgeeraba while the clapped out water treatment plant is getting repaired.

It's going to be cheaper for the desal plant to provide water to the extra 400k people on the Goldie in twenty years than run pipes from the dams to the new estates. 125 megalitres of water a day is a fair amount of water coming through rusty pipes.