Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Smurf1976]

Do you have a reverse cycle heat pump over there Smurf ? Originally coming from Qld the first thing I did to this house was install ceiling fans and air cons in every room. It's just not cool being not able to sleep through hot summer nights and getting up grumpy. I was down the Tas peninsular this afternoon and it's already bone dry over there and the paddocks are dead. Not good this early into Spring.

No heat pump but I do have a wood fire and 13kW of electric heating..... I don't mind the heat though, not even when sleeping.

As for the rain, well 350 people turned up at Gordon power station yesterday for a trip underground and a look inside. That's a lot more than than expected and it ended up with a two hour long queue outside in order to get everyone in the vans, down the tunnel, give them a tour of the underground station then back up to the surface. But suffice to say that a two hour wait in the sun with not much to look at apart from Lake Gordon gave everyone plenty of time to observe that there's not a lot of water in there right now. It's 35.5m down from full (measured as a straight vertical drop). Quite a few people a bit shocked by that I think, plenty of comments to that effect.

Climate change? I won't make any claims about that. But the warmer than usual weather in Tas has been going on long enough now to at least be considered as a "significant" weather event I'd think. Looking at the past few years data for Hobart:

2014 - every month in 2014 thus far has been warmer than average.

2013 - every month except November was warmer than average.

2012 - every month was warmer than average.

2011 - every month except February and March were warmer than average.

2010 - every month except December (which was equal to the average) and September were warmer than average.

So whilst it is NOT proof of any CO2-induced climate change, it's been warmer than average for long enough now to consider it a "significant" weather event I'd think. I haven't checked the data for anywhere else so I'm not sure if this is a local phenomenon or a more widespread one. This is based on official BOM data.

 

[burglar]

Scientists can now view the sun with infra red filters!

 

[noco]

No heat pump but I do have a wood fire and 13kW of electric heating..... I don't mind the heat though, not even when sleeping.

As for the rain, well 350 people turned up at Gordon power station yesterday for a trip underground and a look inside. That's a lot more than than expected and it ended up with a two hour long queue outside in order to get everyone in the vans, down the tunnel, give them a tour of the underground station then back up to the surface. But suffice to say that a two hour wait in the sun with not much to look at apart from Lake Gordon gave everyone plenty of time to observe that there's not a lot of water in there right now. It's 35.5m down from full (measured as a straight vertical drop). Quite a few people a bit shocked by that I think, plenty of comments to that effect.

Climate change? I won't make any claims about that. But the warmer than usual weather in Tas has been going on long enough now to at least be considered as a "significant" weather event I'd think. Looking at the past few years data for Hobart:

2014 - every month in 2014 thus far has been warmer than average.

2013 - every month except November was warmer than average.

2012 - every month was warmer than average.

2011 - every month except February and March were warmer than average.

2010 - every month except December (which was equal to the average) and September were warmer than average.

So whilst it is NOT proof of any CO2-induced climate change, it's been warmer than average for long enough now to consider it a "significant" weather event I'd think. I haven't checked the data for anywhere else so I'm not sure if this is a local phenomenon or a more widespread one. This is based on official BOM data.

In North Queensland, we have experience the longest winter here in 43 years......We still need a blanket on at night although the days are warming up but still under 30 c.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Great information an such an informative post again Smurf.
I'd read somewhere that the two places that are being affected by Climate Change the most are , Tasmania and Greenland. I also was told by a local tourist operator down on the Derwent , that most of the water in the Derwent now runs warmer than Sydney harbour. Again the evidence is there with many species of fish and shell fish from warmer climes showing up on our East Coast in recent years. Lots of algae bloom outbreaks also affecting our oysters and other shellfish. Some of this was put down to illegal dumping of waste , but some of it is climate related. The warmer the water the more the algae will grow. I will firstly say I'm not a marine biologist's underpants however I can see the day that those warm waters will start affecting our salmon and ocean trout industries. Maybe they will have to send the pens further south in the ocean ? eventually. That certainly would affect probably one of our most successful industries. I have personally seen the change in the ten years since moving from QLD. I love the cold with a passion !! and when we start to get week after week of weather more like a Brisbane Spring , something is not well. I'm trying to research a booklet put out by the BOM , it's about Hobart's snowfalls from the beginning of written records. The decline from 1950 onwards is apparently very dramatic. I follow the weather like mad and I drive my wife nuts : I'm constantly looking at our above monthly averages compared to the rest of the capitals. Yes overall they are mostly warmer , however Hobart is always nearly 2,3, 4 degrees above . The other capitals by the end of the month average out to about 0.8 degrees or so.
This month being a classic example , we are almost certain to break the 1972 average of 17.4 given the temps for the rest of the month. Thanks for the info on the Lake Gordon , I must get over there one day. Lets hope the rain situation changes rapidly , I took a drive on Sunday over through the Tas peninsular through the bush fire affected towns. The paddocks are already dead and it's awfully dry for this time of year. Not good news at all. I also do a fair bit of hiking up the fire trails over this side , even in mid Winter they were not boggy underfoot and pretty dry.
I'm like you and have an open mind on what's causing all this , perhaps it's fifty year cycle ? or such . Only the future will tell. Take care and looking forward to your Xmas lights again this year.

 

[bellenuit]

Looking at the past few years data for Hobart:

2014 - every month in 2014 thus far has been warmer than average.

2013 - every month except November was warmer than average.

2012 - every month was warmer than average.

2011 - every month except February and March were warmer than average.

2010 - every month except December (which was equal to the average) and September were warmer than average.

So whilst it is NOT proof of any CO2-induced climate change, it's been warmer than average for long enough now to consider it a "significant" weather event I'd think. I haven't checked the data for anywhere else so I'm not sure if this is a local phenomenon or a more widespread one. This is based on official BOM data.

Smurf, although I agree that the earth is probably warming in the long run and may end up being catastrophic for mankind, I don't think the "warmer than average" argument is in itself that significant. Just assume for a moment that the sceptics are correct and the earth has been cooling for the last 7 or so years (and may continue to do so). Then looking at the graphs of global temperatures, we seemed to have passed the peak in temperatures (at least those of the last two centuries) and are starting a slow descent. Because average temperatures are probably about halfway between the recent peak and the lowest trough of the last 200 years, then it goes without saying that current temperatures (as we are just down from the recent peak) are going to be above the average. This will continue to be the case (if the sceptics are correct) until we cross over the average on the way down and from then on temperatures will tend to be lower than average. Should they reach a bottom and then start to rise again, temperatures will tend to remain below average for an extended period, even though rising yearly, until the average is again exceeded.

This is just a characteristic of any cyclical phenomenon and being above or below average on its own is not indicative of the direction of the current trend.

 

[drsmith]

No heat pump but I do have a wood fire and 13kW of electric heating..... I don't mind the heat though, not even when sleeping.

Don't tell the Greens about the wood fire.

http://archive-act.greens.org.au/category/free-tagging/wood-heaters

 

[sydboy007]

In North Queensland, we have experience the longest winter here in 43 years......We still need a blanket on at night although the days are warming up but still under 30 c.

you must be feeling the cold more because the BOM is showing average to above average over most of the state

The australian daily extreme chart shows just how exceptional this year has been so far. Even the winter months seeing up over 20% of temperature readings in the top 3% of highs in over 100 years, but hey the climate isn't changing.

 

[sydboy007]

Don't tell the Greens about the wood fire.

http://archive-act.greens.org.au/category/free-tagging/wood-heaters

I'd argue wood heaters in winter in suburban areas are a health hazard.

In a more rural setting I doubt most would have issue using a resource that would otherwise go to waste.

I've been in places with a lot of wood heating and on a cool still morning it's rather unpleasant.

Thermal coal is cheap these days. A ton would be cheaper than a ton of firewood. maybe we should head back to using it for heating in our homes?

 

[Smurf1976]

I also was told by a local tourist operator down on the Derwent , that most of the water in the Derwent now runs warmer than Sydney harbour.

The exact point varies depending on flow, but it's tidal below around New Norfolk and a fresh water river above that point. I'm not sure which you are referring to though? The sea or the river as such? There are different drivers for temperature change there.

Snow - last major dump in Hobart itself was back in 1986 but it was a freak event by historical standards. Would be good to see that again though.

Lake Gordon - it's a nice trip down to the SW from a purely scenic aspect with the mountains etc along the way. Lots of spots worth taking photos of the mountains etc (best to go on a clear day for that reason). Public access inside the power station was definitely a one-off not planned to be repeated however.

Tasmania and Greenland - that's an interesting comment. Any particular reasoning? Presumably it relates to land mass, geographic location etc?

 

[Julia]

Climate change? I won't make any claims about that. But the warmer than usual weather in Tas has been going on long enough now to at least be considered as a "significant" weather event I'd think.

Meantime, in SE Qld it's like mid June rather than mid September. Cold, overcast, showery, strong winds. Usually it would be warm, sunny and entirely pleasant.

 

[Knobby22]

I know its just one story so doesn't mean much but a peaches farmer in Shepparton has decided to scrap his 50 year old farm with 10,000 peach trees and change crops. He said the reason was a change in weather over the last 10 years, namely increased evaporation and the worst drought he has seen followed with increasing storms in Summer that destroy his crops.

He said the CSIRO were developing new varieties and they were using technologies developed in Australia to combat the increased problems but in his opinion the climate in that area was now no longer suitable for peach trees. He wants Australia to pump more money into research into fruit varieties but it seems to be going the other way.

Refer today's Age for more.

Meanwhile in Melbourne we are having a beautiful sunny day and have been advised it will be 26 today. Very, very warm for mid September.

 

[drsmith]

I've been in places with a lot of wood heating and on a cool still morning it's rather unpleasant.

Thermal coal is cheap these days. A ton would be cheaper than a ton of firewood. maybe we should head back to using it for heating in our homes?

How would it then be if they couldn't use wood or non-renewables in some form for heating ?

Somewhat worse I suspect.

 

[Smurf1976]

Wood heaters and Gordon power station are both very good examples of the dilemma we all face.

Wood - a renewable energy source that would otherwise be left to rot (producing methane) or burnt in the open to get rid of it. Using it for heating at home avoids the use of some other energy source (mostly fossil fuels) and thus has some positives to it. But then it also pollutes the air with particulates etc and that's not a good thing in itself. It gets even more complicated when the non-CO2 emissions of wood heaters versus natural decomposition or open burning are considered. Methane, soot and so on. It's not at all straightforward.

Gordon PS - still the single largest source of renewable energy in Australia and it's firm, dispatchable power at that not something intermittent like wind. But there's a very well known downside, it being the most controversial hydro scheme that was actually built. Attitudes have shifted somewhat over the years, many environmentalists (including some actual Green MP's by the way) have publicly acknowledged that there's a definite positive side, "clean green hydro" as they call it. Meanwhile there's a permanent sign at Lake Pedder acknowledging the past conflict and that it probably wouldn't be built today - and yes it was the Hydro itself which installed that sign. So a definite shift in attitudes toward the center and an acceptance of the alternative side of the debate by both sides, but it doesn't change the underlying reality. Lots of renewable energy, capable of reliably meeting peak or base load when required, at the expense of flooding the wilderness.

There's a lot more issues like that which arise with efforts to cut CO2 emissions since, if you exclude the actual CO2, fossil fuels don't stack up too badly compared to many of the alternatives. Hence there's a flaw in the "cut emissions just in case" argument. Sure, we could do that, but at the expense of many other environmental impacts - not a good outcome if CO2 turned out to be a non-issue. Therein lies the problem - uncertainty.

 

[So_Cynical]

Leo DiCaprio addressing the UN.
~
[video=youtube_share;ka6_3TJcCkA]http://youtu.be/ka6_3TJcCkA[/video]

 

[sydboy007]

How would it then be if they couldn't use wood or non-renewables in some form for heating ?

Somewhat worse I suspect.

Obviously you missed the sarcasm of that comment

electric heat pumps are probably the most efficient ways to heat and cool housing.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Hobart is going to break a 132 year record for it's hottest September. Year after year month after month Hobart continues to outstrip and other place in the country for extraordinary warming. We are the canary in the mineshaft for sure.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/hot-in-hobart/147834

 

[noco]

Leo DiCaprio addressing the UN.
~
[video=youtube_share;ka6_3TJcCkA]http://youtu.be/ka6_3TJcCkA[/video]

Di Caprio is most likely up to his eye balls with investment in Al Gore's racket.

I have just posted these links on the Abbott Government thread but they are really more suited to this thread.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/06...y-man-made-co2-does-not-drive-climate-change/

http://www.manhattan-institute.org/energymyths/myth10.htm

 

[Smurf1976]

electric heat pumps are probably the most efficient ways to heat and cool housing.

Efficient certainly. Depending on where the electricity comes from, a modern system is 100% to 350% efficient at turning the primary resource into heat inside the building. Typically, it's around 130% in the Australian context.

But efficiency isn't necessarily the goal as such.

Wood > wood heater > heat = roughly 60% efficient from the energy in wood to heat inside the house.

Coal > boiler > steam turbine > alternator > transformers > transmission > transformers > distribution > compressor > heat moved from outside to inside = 130% efficient from coal to heat inside the house.

But so far as actual CO2 is concerned, if we're comparing waste wood that would otherwise be left to rot, or wood that is cut but replaced with new trees, then there's very little net CO2 emission beyond the minor amount used by the chainsaw and truck. So we end up with 0.06 kg CO2 / kWh for wood versus about 0.22 kg CO2 / kWh using coal-fired electricity and a heat pump. Wood still wins, despite the efficiency.

If you want a really inefficient means of generating electricity then solar wins hands down. It's by far the least efficient use of the resource. But the sun is free, we're not running out of it, it doesn't emit CO2 and so on such that efficiency is completely irrelevant in any situation where physical space isn't a limitation on the size of panels installed. That's most situations.

 

[Smurf1976]

A pro-renewable energy protest in Tas. Note that the state Liberal government supports the Renewable Energy Target, seemingly at odds with their federal counterparts.

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/t...le-energy-target/story-fnj4f7k1-1227071802214

 

[noco]

This is not very good news for the Alarmists here and around the world but no doubt someone will try to poohoo their peer reviewed consensus.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...o-carbon-dioxide/story-e6frg6xf-1227072070917