Resisting Climate Hysteria

[ghotib]

For your interest:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/...manipulating-temperature-records/#more-114854

Comments please.

1. Whack-a-mole.

2. If Dr Marohasy wants to attack the BOM datasets, at the very least she has to show that she understands them and how they are used. This stuff is like me claiming expertise in options trading because I was once given employee stock options in a company that never IPOed, and then accusing you of fraud because you talk about <sneer>CALLs</sneer> and even so-called <snark>options traders</snark> don't claim that their <rolleyes>derivatives</rolleyes> have ears.

The BOM publishes its data and its analyses and subjects both to continuing review and refinement, by multiple methods. It also publishes lengthy discussions of problems with the data and how they are addressed, For example, the technical paper, "On the sensitivity of Australian temperature trends and variability to analysis methods and observation networks", is available from the BOM website at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/#tabs=Methods. From the abstract:

This report presents an exploration of Australian temperature trends and variability using the new Australian Climate Observations Reference Network (ACORN) Surface Air Temperature (SAT) dataset. We compare changes in nationally and annually averaged daily-maximum, daily- minimum and daily-mean temperature variability to a range of alternative Australian temperature analyses over the last 100 years (1911-2010).

"For this purpose, we use raw unhomogenised data, as well as a range of high-quality homogenised sub-network and whole-network analysis grids, to explore the sensitivity of the temperature changes over time to the choice of analysis method, selection of sites used in the observational network, and homogenisation techniques.

There many days more of reading, plus masses of data, up there for anyone who'll take the time and trouble to use them. Sadly, most people don't have the knowledge or skill to use them well, same as most people don't have the knowledge or skill to trade options profitably.

3. JoNova has published the BOM's response to the Oz article. I'm sure you can find that for yourself. Other responses are at:

thttp://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...conspiracy-in-australias-record-breaking-heat
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/08/weather-in-rutherglen-with-wuwt.html

4. Whack-a-mole.

 

[dutchie]

Oops another prediction hits the dust.


Myth of arctic meltdown: Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometres

MORE than 2 years ago...despite Al Gore's prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now

Seven years after former US Vice-President Al Gore's warning, Arctic ice cap has expanded for second year in row
An area twice the size of Alaska - America's biggest state - was open water two years ago and is now covered in ice



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-s-prediction-ICE-FREE-now.html#ixzz3Bw8sRXNU

 

[wayneL]

Right, where did the mole whacker go?:

 

[burglar]

Right, where did the mole whacker go?:

How many moles did the mole whacker, whack?

Better question, what the h3ll is a mole whacker?

 

[explod]

Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise in most countries. Figures out this week show Australia's largest contributor - the power sector - had its fastest growth of emissions in the last two months since the end of the carbon price in almost eight years.

The researchers' model included other potential causes of unusual temperatures - solar radiation, volcanic activity, El Niño Southern Oscillation weather patterns in the Pacific - to test out human contribution.

The paper said periods of slowing growth or even drops in temperature had been taken up by climate sceptics to raise doubts about the link between rising concentrations of greenhouse gases and warming.

In fact, the model found "one would expect a far greater number of short periods of falling temperatures (as observed since 1998) if climate change was not occurring.

"the question is not that we have 11 (such periods of cooling in the surveyed period) but why don't we have more of them," Dr Howden said. "If it wasn't for human influence of greenhouse gas emissions, we'd actually have a lot more."

Page 3 of The Age, 5/09/2014

 

[noco]

Page 3 of The Age, 5/09/2014

So if that report were true then the Antarctic ice should be melting resulting in sea rises.

But according to the latest reports, it indicates the sea ice around Antarctica is expanding to record levels.

The Alarmist have all gone into hiding lately.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...imate-scientists/story-e6frg6xf-1227058298989

 

[Smurf1976]

Regardless of whether or not CO2 is warming the planet, this just can't be good.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/world...should-worry-you/story-e6frfqc9-1227063846222

It's a somewhat sobering example of just how badly man is messing with the planet. Reminds me of those images of smokers and their blackened lungs - except this is on a far greater scale. It can't be good.

 

[explod]

So if that report were true then the Antarctic ice should be melting resulting in sea rises.

But according to the latest reports, it indicates the sea ice around Antarctica is expanding to record levels.

The Alarmist have all gone into hiding lately.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...imate-scientists/story-e6frg6xf-1227058298989

The link would not allow me access noco so perhaps you can explain.

The increase in ice is about a metre thick and seasonally comes and goes. What we are losing and of mounting concern is the permanent ice pack. The other is its braking up underneath which in turn is allowing increased amounts of methane to escape.

Yes there is not much happening yet on sea rising but when one looks at what is happening collectively an acceleration and warming can be reasonably expected to occur soon. But the bigger issue in my mind is that at that stage it will be far too late to correct.

 

[Ijustnewit]

So if that report were true then the Antarctic ice should be melting resulting in sea rises.

But according to the latest reports, it indicates the sea ice around Antarctica is expanding to record levels.

The Alarmist have all gone into hiding lately.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...imate-scientists/story-e6frg6xf-1227058298989

The Alarmist won't be to far away. Perth has just smashed it's September record by nearly 3 degrees. Darwin is also breaking record territory for September , near 40 degrees up there. The South East is about to cop it big time next week , Adelaide , Melbourne and Hobart are set to cook . I know here in Hobart we are in for 4 days of 23c and 24c degree temps. Considering the January / Feb max is normally around 22c , I'd say that copping that sort of heat in September is a bit of a concern come bushfire season. Hobart is also currently on track to break it's hottest September max average since written records began. Apparently all this melting ice is drawing cooler waters north causing the currents to draw in the High pressure systems. Thus blocking our usual ( back in the old days) Cold Fronts , thus heating up the land mass . Seems logical to me ? What's causing the melting , who really can say ? Underwater Volcano ? Are we getting closer to the Sun ? Gremlims in the Atmosphere? Anyway's hope wherever you are , your watering system is in place and have an air con in every room. It's going to be a long stinker of Summer heat.

 

[noco]

The link would not allow me access noco so perhaps you can explain.

The increase in ice is about a metre thick and seasonally comes and goes. What we are losing and of mounting concern is the permanent ice pack. The other is its braking up underneath which in turn is allowing increased amounts of methane to escape.

Yes there is not much happening yet on sea rising but when one looks at what is happening collectively an acceleration and warming can be reasonably expected to occur soon. But the bigger issue in my mind is that at that stage it will be far too late to correct.

Record expansion sees Antarctic sea ice confound climate scientists

The Australian
September 15, 2014 12:00AM

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Rick Morton
Social Affairs Reporter
Sydney
https://plus.google.com/110856017971235962847
Floe growth.

Floe growth. Source: TheAustralian

ANTARCTIC sea ice has expan*ded to its greatest coverage since records began in 1978, continuing to confound climate scien*tists and proving even more hazardous than usual for shipping in the Southern Ocean.

The three-year, record-breaking run continued as the sea ice cover in the region hit 19.619 million square kilometres on Friday, more than two weeks ahead of last year’s October 1 record of 19.607 million. The coverage is roughly 2 ½ times the size of the Australian continent.

The data, which is kept by the US Nation**al Snow and Ice Data Centre and analysed by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-oper*ative Research Centre in Hobart, shows the ice has been growing at an average of 1.5 per cent each decade.

“It is telling us we need to know much more about sea ice than we think we know already,” Hobart research centre marine glaciologist Jan Lieser told The Australian.

“I suspect the record reached on Friday will not even be the record for 2014, it has some growing to do in the next couple of weeks.”

Dr Lieser said the “growth and decay” of the Antarctic was one of the biggest, potentially the biggest, naturally occurring events in the world. It has long been considered a climate paradox because, as it grows, sea ice in the Arctic has been shrinking.

The prevailing hypothesis is that winds in the Antarctic have strengthened as a result of global temperature gradients changing. Winds play a major role in the formation of sea ice.

“Sea ice is very much a product of its local environment and is not just driven by temperature but (also) ocean currents and winds,” Dr Lieser said. “We know the wind speed and storminess of the Antarctic has increased as a result of a changing climate.

“Crucially, while sea ice is *expanding in the Southern Ocean we know the Antarctic continent itself is losing ice mass at a rapid pace. Whether that loss is contributing to the extra sea ice we do not know but it is something we must look at.”

Although submarines were able during the Cold War to collect useful surveys of the thickness of Arctic ice, no such record of volume exists for Antarctic sea ice. The coverage may have spread but it may also be thinning.

The Australian understands the growing ice mass will pose a significant challenge to shipping in the coming Antarctic summer, even to resupply missions conducted by the Aurora Australia.

Last year, scientists were trapped in sea ice for more than a week aboard Russian research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy. They were finally helicoptered to safety aboard the Aurora Australis, which was unable to break through the ice to reach the boat.

The Aurora Australis is due to leave Hobart on October 22 to resupply scientists at the Davis research station. A spokeswoman for the Australian Antarctic Division said the season was yet to begin and she did not have any comment about “potential impacts on the Auroraresupply”.

 

[explod]

The situation in both arctic regions is very complex and requires a lot to get the head around. This very problem is what is also exploited to continue confusion on this issue.

The increased temperature though minute is creating increased clod cover, among other things which in turn is causing more Ice to form. Over the artic the air is so cold that there is very little moister in it. A slight drop in temperature, moister increases then we see more snow and ice. And it is spreading out.

And though it is a huge sheet, happening in the arctic too, it is gone by the end of summer. Like the increased storms it is all just becoming more volatile.

Now my sources, a lot of reading on the subject over a number of years. You can find plenty to back it up or to ridicule it on google if you wish.

And anyway, the little bit we say is going to make zilch difference in my view, we have passed the point of no return and all will soon know it.

 

[sydboy007]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...at_record_world_on_pace_for_warmest_year.html

New data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that Earth’s oceans reached a level last month not seen since humans have been keeping comprehensive records. Global ocean temperatures in August 2014 warmed to “the largest departure from average for any month on record” according to a NOAA statement. The previous record was set just two months ago, in June 2014.

Additionally, the combined temperature of June, July, and August was also unprecedented in historical records. According to the JMA, four of the last five months have now been record-breaking for that particular month. (July was No. 2, just a hair behind the super-charged El Niño year of 1998.) The eastern United States is among the only land areas on Earth still running below normal for 2014, a legacy of the polar vortex outbreaks of earlier this year.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...d_levels_what_does_that_say_about_global.html

For four days in a row this week, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has broken all-time records. But””get this””the ice is expanding, not shrinking.

First, let’s distinguish between sea ice and land ice. Since sea ice floats in the ocean, its growth or melt doesn’t affect global sea levels. Antarctic land ice, on the other hand, does contribute to sea level rise, and it’s losing volume at a record pace. In fact, a frightening study earlier this year found that a key glacier in West Antarctica has entered an inevitable, slow-motion collapse phase, with dire consequences for the world’s coastal cities. A follow-up study last month for the first time put an upper bounds on the impacts of melting Antarctic glaciers in our children’s lifetimes.

Even though there's been more ice, the Southern Ocean is warming, not cooling.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business...-to-dramatically-reinvent-the-economy/380429/

For more than a decade, Naomi Klein has been calling attention to the invisible, abstract concerns that hide in the shadows of global trade: the exploitation of far-off workers, the environmental destruction, the corruption that contorts political systems. In her latest book, This Changes Everything, Klein tackles the unintended but inevitable consequence of fueling GDP with oil and gas and coal: a destabilized climate.

These days, the prevailing mood in response to climate change seems to be one of despair. It's too late. The problem is too massive. But Klein sees something else. She sees a possibility: that a more humane economy can be shaped by aggressively combating climate change. I spoke with her about the opportunity to transform society at the precipice of calamity. A lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows.

 

[Smurf1976]

Anyway's hope wherever you are , your watering system is in place and have an air con in every room. It's going to be a long stinker of Summer heat.

Well I've got a garden hose and a portable fan. Does that count?

As for the rain, well that's just not happening really. Some rain yes, but not as much as would be considered normal and we're almost at the end of the season so far as runoff and ground moisture is concerned.

Assuming no major fires etc, the biggest weather-related problem we're facing in Tas going forward is financial. Not good.

 

[noco]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...at_record_world_on_pace_for_warmest_year.html




http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...d_levels_what_does_that_say_about_global.html




http://www.theatlantic.com/business...-to-dramatically-reinvent-the-economy/380429/

Naomi Klein does not appear to have any credentials relating to Climate Change......she is the Grand Daughter of communists......she is anti Israel.......and anti Capitalism.

She is a devout writer for the socialist Guardian News Paper.

Is it any wonder she is an alarmist...her profile tells it all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naomi_Klein

And here is the profile of Eric Holthaus.


http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/news/meet-eric-holthaus-the-rebel-nerd-of-meteorology-20140212

And herewith are the first two comments on Eric Holthaus.


windy2 • 7 months ago

Holthaus seems to be embracing a fanaticism for some sort of climate apocalypse. This 'cult' lifestyle that he is gravitating to is not being seen in any other scientists who know far more about paleoclimate and atmospheric science than the young and inexperienced Holthaus displays. The scientific evidence for any sort of climate apocalypse is eroding and such thinking also suffers from the same tunnel vision that led past apocalyptic messenger Paul Ehrlich and his 'Population Bomb' astray. I recall being concerned with Ehrlich's research as I was at university at the time and it was a hot topic in the science department. I've seen hundreds of Holthaus apocalyptic types and so I dismiss him as an anomaly like those young students at university who were susceptible to the cult apocalyptic message of Paul Ehrlich.

There are people who study why people are attracted to apocalyptic fanaticism and among them is one of the 21st centuries most brilliant philosophers Pascal Bruckner. I understand people like Holthaus much better after reading Bruckner's books and listening to a few of his lectures.

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ClimateLearner • 7 months ago

The usual false dichotomy between those who do and those who don't believe in man-made climate change. This provides a convenient straw man for climate alarm campaigners to make smart-alec comments around. The reality is that there is no real dispute over whether or not humans have an impact on climate. Of course they do. The question worthy of attention is whether a given impact is appreciable or not. The impact of rising CO2 level, for example, so far has had no clear effect on climate, and as for it being alarming, I'd be more inclined to say the opposite is more plausible,I.e. that it is and will be beneficial.

So I really cannot place any credence on the opinion of these two people whatsoever.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Well I've got a garden hose and a portable fan. Does that count?

As for the rain, well that's just not happening really. Some rain yes, but not as much as would be considered normal and we're almost at the end of the season so far as runoff and ground moisture is concerned.

Assuming no major fires etc, the biggest weather-related problem we're facing in Tas going forward is financial. Not good.

Do you have a reverse cycle heat pump over there Smurf ? Originally coming from Qld the first thing I did to this house was install ceiling fans and air cons in every room. It's just not cool being not able to sleep through hot summer nights and getting up grumpy. I was down the Tas peninsular this afternoon and it's already bone dry over there and the paddocks are dead. Not good this early into Spring. I'm not going to bother trying any tomatoes this year , last 2 years have been a disaster and this years looking worse. Some really hot days coming up now , they just keep increasing the forecast by 2 degrees . Chasing down the 1972 record average now for sure , good Pale Ale weather though.

 

[sydboy007]

Naomi Klein does not appear to have any credentials relating to Climate Change......she is the Grand Daughter of communists......she is anti Israel.......and anti Capitalism.

She is a devout writer for the socialist Guardian News Paper.

Is it any wonder she is an alarmist...her profile tells it all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naomi_Klein

And here is the profile of Eric Holthaus.

So when 3 different Government organisations, from 2 very different countries, all say that the records they have collected and reviewed are showing ocean temperature at their highest levels in recorded history, you outright reject this as some fabian socialist communist plot against humanity? Next you'll be telling me some big man in the sky controls everything and it's all just intelligent design.

Then you latch onto an increase in sea ice as some proof against global warming, when the actual ice melt from antarctica has continued to increase and waters have continued to warm. Are they making the figures up? Are you just choosing to believe what The Australian tells you above all else?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/19/o...eap-and-free.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&_r=0

On the other side, it turns out that putting a price on carbon would have large “co-benefits” — positive effects over and above the reduction in climate risks — and that these benefits would come fairly quickly. The most important of these co-benefits, according to the I.M.F. paper, would involve public health: burning coal causes many respiratory ailments, which drive up medical costs and reduce productivity.

And thanks to these co-benefits, the paper argues, one argument often made against carbon pricing — that it’s not worth doing unless we can get a global agreement — is wrong. Even without an international agreement, there are ample reasons to take action against the climate threat.

So here’s what you need to know: Climate despair is all wrong. The idea that economic growth and climate action are incompatible may sound hardheaded and realistic, but it’s actually a fuzzy-minded misconception. If we ever get past the special interests and ideology that have blocked action to save the planet, we’ll find that it’s cheaper and easier than almost anyone imagines.

 

[noco]

So when 3 different Government organisations, from 2 very different countries, all say that the records they have collected and reviewed are showing ocean temperature at their highest levels in recorded history, you outright reject this as some fabian socialist communist plot against humanity? Next you'll be telling me some big man in the sky controls everything and it's all just intelligent design.

Then you latch onto an increase in sea ice as some proof against global warming, when the actual ice melt from antarctica has continued to increase and waters have continued to warm. Are they making the figures up? Are you just choosing to believe what The Australian tells you above all else?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/19/o...eap-and-free.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&_r=0

Paul Krugman is a Professor of economics and has no climate change credentials.

He is a Social Democrat who believes in Keynesian economics.

One could not credence in what he states.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman

Martin Wolf has written that Krugman is both the "most hated and most admired columnist in the US".[106] Economist J. Peter Neary has noted that Krugman "has written on a wide range of topics, always combining one of the best prose styles in the profession with an ability to construct elegant, insightful and useful models."[107] Neary added that "no discussion of his work could fail to mention his transition from Academic Superstar to Public Intellectual. Through his extensive writings, including a regular column for The New York Times, monographs and textbooks at every level, and books on economics and current affairs for the general public ... he has probably done more than any other writer to explain economic principles to a wide audience."[107] Krugman has been described as the most controversial economist in his generation[108][109] and according to Michael Tomasky since 1992 he has moved "from being a center-left scholar to being a liberal polemicist."[99]

 

[overhang]

Paul Krugman is a Professor of economics and has no climate change credentials.

He is a Social Democrat who believes in Keynesian economics.

One could not credence in what he states.

So you reject these articles based on the lack of climate change credentials from the author, fair enough I say. But at the same time you posted today a piece by Rick Morton from The Australian who is just a social affairs journalist and has no such climate change credentials. You in this very thread have posted Andrew Bolt who is as extreme right as the crazy tea party from America, as though he is some Nobel prize winning climate scientist when he is just a racist media commentator.

So while it's very noble of you to proclaim you only accept evidence from experts it would appear you need to have a complete revamp on where you choose your sources as evidence to continue your climate denial.

 

[pixel]

Martin Luther King jr was a pastor, not a sleep therapist.
So how did he dare "have a dream".

Methinks that the argument isn't really about truth, but about character assassination of anybody, whose opinions diverge from what their opponents consider "RIGHT". Regardless how ludicrous, any argument is better than the truth when it comes to rejecting an inconvenient realisation.

PS: I have only a degree in Mathematics, so I'm only allowed to comment on 2 times 2 = 4. Feel free to ignore everything else I write.

 

[noco]

So you reject these articles based on the lack of climate change credentials from the author, fair enough I say. But at the same time you posted today a piece by Rick Morton from The Australian who is just a social affairs journalist and has no such climate change credentials. You in this very thread have posted Andrew Bolt who is as extreme right as the crazy tea party from America, as though he is some Nobel prize winning climate scientist when he is just a racist media commentator.

So while it's very noble of you to proclaim you only accept evidence from experts it would appear you need to have a complete revamp on where you choose your sources as evidence to continue your climate denial.

Perhaps you should be a bit more astute and read the article in more depth.

You see Rick Morton was reporting on information he received from the US Nation**al Snow and Ice Data Centre and analysed by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-oper*ative Research Centre in Hobart,



The data, which is kept by the US Nation**al Snow and Ice Data Centre and analysed by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-oper*ative Research Centre in Hobart, shows the ice has been growing at an average of 1.5 per cent each decade.

“It is telling us we need to know much more about sea ice than we think we know already,” Hobart research centre marine glaciologist Jan Lieser told The Australian.

“I suspect the record reached on Friday will not even be the record for 2014, it has some growing to do in the next couple of weeks.”