Resisting Climate Hysteria

[basilio]

Noco the trouble with you is that you take Andrew Bolts lying, selective dribble as a basis for information regarding CC.

I read his blog. As usual a mixture of selected half truths. If you actually want something factual check out out the Bureau Of Met report on Vanuatu. Key points are
1) Increases in temp due to global warming
2) Increases in extreme rainfall events (Overall rainfall seems to be roughly the same just bigger downpours.)
3) High confidence in future ocean rises
4) Very High confidence of coral reef destruction because of warming oceans
5) Very High confidence in increasing ocean acidification (again because of excess CO2)

Not surprisingly Mr Bolt didn't comment on these aspects of global warming.

http://www.pacificclimatechangescie...CountryReports2014_Ch16Vanuatu_WEB_140710.pdf

 

[noco]

Noco the trouble with you is that you take Andrew Bolts lying, selective dribble as a basis for information regarding CC.

I read his blog. As usual a mixture of selected half truths. If you actually want something factual check out out the Bureau Of Met report on Vanuatu. Key points are
1) Increases in temp due to global warming
2) Increases in extreme rainfall events (Overall rainfall seems to be roughly the same just bigger downpours.)
3) High confidence in future ocean rises
4) Very High confidence of coral reef destruction because of warming oceans
5) Very High confidence in increasing ocean acidification (again because of excess CO2)

Not surprisingly Mr Bolt didn't comment on these aspects of global warming.

http://www.pacificclimatechangescie...CountryReports2014_Ch16Vanuatu_WEB_140710.pdf

And the trouble with you is you believe in fictitious data and projections out to 2090 and no doubt
"PEER REVIEWED"????....it is so very easy to come up with that sort of data and the naive believe it....The IPPC used to come up with similar data and then confessed they may have been wrong........That idiot Professor Tim Flannery told all the Labor Governments in 2007 that Brisbane , Sydney and Melbourne would run out of water by 2010 and they never see rains again to fill the dams......And those same stupid Labor Party Governments believed him so they all spent $billions on desalinization plants which are now in rusted moth balls.....that same idiot tried to get everyone to believe seas would rise to the height of 8 story buildings but the hypocrite bought a block of land on the Hawksbury river just 2 metres above high water mark.

I traveled to Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, PNG and Fiji on business over an 18 year period......The water was encroaching on some of those island back in the 80's and 90's.......and it was a well known fact in those days, the ocean was not rising but the islands were in fact sinking.......many of those island are volcanic and many are coral cays that sink over a long period of time. Ah yes they say, the seas are rising, it must be Global Warming.

When cyclone Yasi hit North Queensland 4 years ago that Greenie Bob Brown shouts from the highest roof , "you see what man made Global warning is doing and we will see more and more intense weather"....But then comes the latest prediction the number of cyclones are decreasing....That other Greenie Christine Milne now states that is because of Global Warming......So it does not matter whether it is drought, floods, fire or sinking islands, we must blame it on man made Global Warming so we must close all the coal mines and coal fired power stations.

What a heap of cods waddle.

Believe a quarter of what you hear and a half of what you see and you will be some where near the truth.

If you have lived as long as I have my friend you would understand that nothing has changed since the 1930's.

If you want some observed history over that time I can give you plenty.

 

[Bintang]

.....that same idiot tried to get everyone to believe seas would rise to the height of 8 story buildings but the hypocrite bought a block of land on the Hawksbury river just 2 metres above high water mark.

Naaa... he's probably just dumb. If he was really smart he would have bought land in a place that is guaranteed to be future, prime sea-front. Probably somewhere West of Kurrajong Hills.

 

[Logique]

Thanks to The Age,
we know that the global warming halt doesn't disprove climate change, it's actually because of climate change!

It seems that global temps have remained constant for 17 years because.. the Atlantic Ocean has warmed. Who'd have thought!

The Age Headlines - 2 days ago
http://omnyapp.com/shows/the-age-headlines/warming-halt-due-to-climate-change
Warming halt due to climate change
A mysterious surge in the trade winds that blow across the Pacific Ocean – one of the causes of a recent slow down in global temperature rises – is actually the result of the warming of the Atlantic Ocean, Australian-led research has found.

 

[Knobby22]

Not the Age, Nature, the number one scientific journal.
I've been following this for awhile and its old news. Being published by Nature adds a lot of credence though.

To summarise:
Research published earlier this year suggested the intensified trade winds were trapping heat from the air in the ocean, slowing the warming of global surface temperature.

This pressure difference between the two ocean basins isn't expected to last. And as previous research reported, when it does end, a sudden acceleration of average temperature around the globe would likely occur.

"It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end," says co-author Matthew England, also from the University of New South Wales.

"However, a large El Niño event is one candidate that has the potential to drive the system back to a more synchronised Atlantic/Pacific warming situation."

 

[wayneL]

Not the Age, Nature, the number one scientific journal.
I've been following this for awhile and its old news. Being published by Nature adds a lot of credence though.

To summarise:
Research published earlier this year suggested the intensified trade winds were trapping heat from the air in the ocean, slowing the warming of global surface temperature.

This pressure difference between the two ocean basins isn't expected to last. And as previous research reported, when it does end, a sudden acceleration of average temperature around the globe would likely occur.

"It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end," says co-author Matthew England, also from the University of New South Wales.

"However, a large El Niño event is one candidate that has the potential to drive the system back to a more synchronised Atlantic/Pacific warming situation."

Interesting hypothesis, one of many I have read regarding the hiatus. It (or any of the other hypotheses) shouldn't be regarded as deterministic analysis however.

Time will tell

 

[SirRumpole]

Agricultural giant Olam International says climate change is 'absolutely a reality'
\

The head of one the world's largest agricultural commodity trading companies is warning Australian primary producers to take climate change seriously.

Olam International chief executive Sunny Verghese has told Landline that agricultural producers and processors need to take action now.

"It is absolutely a reality that climate change is going to significantly impact agriculture," he said.

"It impacts it both from the nexus it has with water, and the nexus it has with micro-climate as well, so it is probably the most important driver to future agricultural production, productivity and therefore price."

Mr Vergese was on the Gold Coast this week to address the 2014 Australian Cotton Conference.

His Singapore-based company has operations in 65 countries, and is the world's biggest trader in cashews, and the second biggest trader in coffee and cotton.

Olam International has had a presence in Australian since 2007; it owns Queensland cotton, manages 12,000 hectares of almond orchards in Victoria and has investments in the grain, wool and pulse industries.

Mr Verghese said one of Olam's initiatives to tackle the impacts of climate change was to reduce water consumption.

"We have a target that in our tier one manufacturing and processing facilities we will reduce water usage per tonne of product that we supply by 10 per cent by 2015, and in our farms by 10 per cent by 2020," he said.

"Similarly we can track the carbon dioxide emission that we generate across all our commodities in each country.

"Again we have put some hard targets of how we are going to reduce that carbon emission footprint for every tonne that we supply by 2015 and 2020."

"My view is that there is no point if I say I've generated half-a-billion after tax earnings, but I've depleted $200 million of natural capital from the environment.

"Because then I've got to question myself, what is the point of all this overwhelming effort if at the end of the day you've really depleted the natural capital and left a huge bill to pay for future generations?"
China at the cutting edge

Mr Verghese said China in particular faced huge environmental challenges, with 90 per cent if its water polluted. But he is encouraged by the Chinese government's response.

"I don't think there's any other government in any other part of the world that is investing as much money now in research to solve this problem – China is at the cutting edge now," he said.

The Olam CEO says both India and China have little chance of being able to feed their populations, and that opens new opportunities for Australia.

But Mr Verghese downplays talk of developing the food bowl of Asia.

"It would not be the right view to say Australia would be the food basket of the world," he said.

"But Australia will be the most competitive producer, Australia will set the standards on water usage efficiency, on agronomic practices, on breeding better varieties, and therefore Australia will always be very competitive.

"At the end of the day Australia will be part of the solution, but will not be the solution. It cannot be the solution because it also has constraints on how much it can produce and how much it can export."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-10/agricultural-giant-says-climate-change-absolutely-real/5659058

 

[explod]

Thanks for posting SirRumpol.

You can have all the scientific cross argument you like, but it is "the vibe your Worship"

The farmers, the gardeners and men of the land will tell you.

90 percent of Australia continues to be in drought.

 

[SirRumpole]

Thanks for posting SirRumpol.

You can have all the scientific cross argument you like, but it is "the vibe your Worship"

The farmers, the gardeners and men of the land will tell you.

90 percent of Australia continues to be in drought.

Are you arguing for or against the proposition that climate change is a problem ?

 

[Smurf1976]

Interesting hypothesis, one of many I have read regarding the hiatus. It (or any of the other hypotheses) shouldn't be regarded as deterministic analysis however.

Time will tell

A risk is that, if the theory is found correct and we see a rapid resumption of warming, then we may end up having to take extremely rapid action. Rapid as in simply scale back coal, oil and gas production at a rapid pace and just accept whatever consequences that brings knowing full well that it's quite literally a "lights out" scenario.

It's like any disaster. The longer it's left, the more drastic the measures required to deal with it. And when it can no longer be postponed, the "unthinkable" does indeed happen and it happens extremely fast.

So far as climate change is concerned, we're basically taking a gamble that avoiding a modest cost today won't result in a very much higher cost tomorrow. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but it's definitely a gamble.

 

[sydboy007]

http://www.scientificamerican.com/a...oles-possibly-found/?&WT.mc_id=SA_WR_20140806

has got me worried that we're close to the tipping point to a new equilibrium which wont be so hospitable for humans

From the photo of the Yamal crater, "it's obvious that some material was ejected from the hole," Romanovsky said. His Russian colleagues who visited the site told him the dirt was piled more than 3 feet (1 m) high around the hole's edges.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...berian-crater-mystery-and-the-news-isnt-good/

There’s now a substantiated theory about what created the crater. And the news isn’t so good.

It may be methane gas, released by the thawing of frozen ground. According to a recent Nature article, “air near the bottom of the crater contained unusually high concentrations of methane ”” up to 9.6% ”” in tests conducted at the site on 16 July, says Andrei Plekhanov, an archaeologist at the Scientific Centre of Arctic Studies in Salekhard, Russia. Plekhanov, who led an expedition to the crater, says that air normally contains just 0.000179% methane.”

The scientist said the methane release may be related to Yamal’s unusually hot summers in 2012 and 2013, which were warmer by an average of 5 degrees Celsius. “As temperatures rose, the researchers suggest, permafrost thawed and collapsed, releasing methane that had been trapped in the icy ground,” the report stated.

“Gas pressure increased until it was high enough to push away the overlaying layers in a powerful injection, forming the crater,” explained geochemist Hans-Wolfgang Hubberten of Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute, adding that he’s never seen anything like the crater.

Researchers with Stockholm University’s Department of Applied Environmental Science recently witnessed methane releases in the East Siberian Arctic Ocean. They found that “elevated methane levels [were] about ten times higher than in background seawater,” wrote scientist Orjan Gustafsson on his blog last week. He added: “This was somewhat of a surprise … This is information that is crucial if we are to be able to provide scientific estimations of how these methane reeases may develop in the future.”

 

[explod]

Are you arguing for or against the proposition that climate change is a problem ?

That the anecdotal evidence shows that warming is a growing problem to farming in particular.

And as just pointed out by Sydboy, we should be acting on the possibility or we may (I think we have) have passed the tipping point.

Some scientists have indicated that at a certain point the deterioration, or it you like, warming will accelerate exponentially.

 

[SirRumpole]

That the anecdotal evidence shows that warming is a growing problem to farming in particular.

And as just pointed out by Sydboy, we should be acting on the possibility or we may (I think we have) have passed the tipping point.

Some scientists have indicated that at a certain point the deterioration, or it you like, warming will accelerate exponentially.

It makes decisions like the below, even more inane

Fury free-flowing at bore project’s closure



FARMERS are furious about the State and federal governments’ decision to discontinue funding for the Cap and Pipe Bore Program.

Funding for the 15-year-old project, hailed the most beneficial ever provided to Australian agriculture, dries up in June and farmers say the fact the future of the Great Artesian Basin (GAB) rehabilitation work is not secure is “totally, completely insane”.

Across three phases of joint Australian and NSW government funding totalling close to $90 million, plus the equivalent contributed by farmers, 398 free-flowing bores have been controlled in NSW with more than 10,000 kilometres of bore drains removed and 18,000km of pipe installed.

That adds up to a saving of 78,500 megalitres of water every year, according to NSW Office of Water figures, and about 4.2m hectares of country supplied with permanent, reliable, efficient and strategically located watering points.

Before the capping and piping, up to 95 per cent of artesian water was being wasted through evaporation and seepage in free-flowing drains since commercial exploitation of the basin’s water and pressure resources began in 1878.

There are still as many as 240 free-flowing bores in NSW to be capped and piped, or about a third of the GAB in NSW.

Nationwide, there are still about 650 to be done.

The GAB is the largest underground freshwater resource in the world and lies below 12 per cent of NSW.

Agriculture groups want $100m invested immediately to see the GAB project to fruition, plus low interest rates to help farmers fund their side.

Many farmers would need to cough up several hundred thousand dollars for their share of reticulation systems (which has ranged from 20pc of the cost of capping and 30pc to 60pc of the cost of replacing drains with pipes).

Farming lobby groups say, given current drought conditions, that would be impossible.

President of the NSW Artesian Bore Users Association and GAB Protection Group Anne Kennedy, “Yuma”, Coonamble, said farmers were gobsmacked governments were sending money to overseas water projects while ignoring this single greatest resource Australia has.

“Science is telling us the GAB is recharging at 0.5 to 10 millimetres a year,”Ms Kennedy said.

“It’s a finite resource – the equivalent of Sydney Harbour every year is being wasted, going down uncapped free-flowing drains.

“Not only do we need to see this project through, we need to crank up the rate at which bores are capped and piped to stop this atrocious wastage.”

Farmers who have already capped and piped their artesian bores say they wouldn’t exist today without it.

Wool and lamb producer Ranald Warby, “Barrakee”, Mungindi, is now in the second year of drought with no effective rain since last January and has for some time been entirely dependant on piped groundwater.

He says he would be out of business were it not for the supply of reliable clean water to 36 tanks and troughs the project provided.

“We have the ability to spread stock out to all paddocks and use any available feed,” he said.

Mr Warby said there were bores that had not flowed for many years now flowing again and others that had been capped and piped no longer needed pumps due to the increase in pressure.

“But with the rise in the pressure of the basin, the remaining uncapped bores are flowing at a greater rate which is why the work has to continue and move at speed,” he said.

Farmers say enormous water usage by the mining and coal seam gas industries is putting increased stress on the basin.

The federal government says it is assessing the benefit of further investment in the rehabilitation of the GAB, with the outcome expected before June.

NSW Minister for Primary Industries Katrina Hodgkinson said her government considered the rehabilitation works to be a vital initiative for landholders in the basin and was continuing its negotiations with the Commonwealth to extend funding beyond June 30, 2014.

http://www.theland.com.au/news/agri...ore-projects-closure/2691292.aspx?storypage=1

 

[sydboy007]

It makes decisions like the below, even more inane

Halve federal elite sports funding for a year, and maybe kill off the ballerina funding of $1M in the budget too, and I'd say the NSW Govt and farmers should be able to make up the shortfall.

 

[sydboy007]

[video=youtube_share;l2myKgJFbuo]http://youtu.be/l2myKgJFbuo[/video]

 

[Logique]

That '97% of scientists' is looking shakier by the week.

The tide is running out for the new Aristotelians of AGW.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...e-iceman-cometh/story-e6frg6zo-1227023489894#
..What if the warmth the world has enjoyed for the past 50 years is the result of solar activity, not man made CO2?..

..They found that over the last 3,000 years the modern Grand maxima which occurred between 1959 and 2009, was a rare event both in magnitude and duration. This research adds to growing evidence that climate change is determined by the sun not humans.

 

[Knobby22]

But solar activity has been dropping logique.

 

[noco]

But solar activity has been dropping logique.

I have been saying this for years now on how Earth traverses around the Sun, the activities of the Sun and the distance Earth is from the Sun at a given time.

So I would say that those 97% of scientist who still preach man made Global Warming are a selected few from 100 scientist.....there are perhaps another 10,000 scientist out there who have a different view but their opinions very often get suppressed.....Scientist like Peter Rid and Bob Carter from JCU Townsville, whom I have met in person on more than one occasions, have that far different view.

Having lived in North Queensland for some 43 years, I only remarked a day or two ago that we have just experienced the longest winter in that time period.....not extremely cold but a longer period.

Yet during the past 20 years the US alone has poured about $US80 billion into climate change research on the presumption that humans are the primary cause. The effect has been to largely preordain scientific conclusions. It set in train a virtuous cycle where the more scientists pointed to human causes, the more governments funded their research.

At the same time, like primitive civilisations offering up sacrifices to appease the gods, many governments, including Australia’s former Labor government, used the biased research to pursue “green” gesture politics. This has inflicted serious damage on economies and diminished the West’s standing and effectiveness in world *affair



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...he-iceman-cometh/story-e6frg6zo-1227023489894

 

[trainspotter]

But solar activity has been dropping logique.

It's cyclical

While you didn’t see it, feel it, or even read about it in the newspapers, Earth was almost knocked back to the Stone Age on July 23, 2012. It wasn’t some crazed dictator with his finger on the thermonuclear button or a giant asteroid that came close to wiping out civilization as we know it, though ”” no, what nearly ended us was a massive solar storm. Almost two years ago to the day, our most bounteous and fantastical celestial body ”” the Sun ”” kicked out one of the largest solar flares and coronal mass ejections ever recorded. And it missed Earth by a whisker. “If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” says Daniel Baker, who led the research into the massive solar storm.

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...-sent-us-back-to-a-post-apocalyptic-stone-age

 

[SirRumpole]

he Sun ”” kicked out one of the largest solar flares and coronal mass ejections ever recorded.

I didn't see it...