Join the Search for Flight MH370

[McLovin]

I don't know. 777-200 is a big jet.



And to refuel?

http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/777family/pf/pf_200product.page



Where do you get 171k L of Jet A1 fuel?

Exactly. That's why the fly and store for use at a later date scenario isn't credible, imo. The actions of the crew look sinister, but they would also fit the profile of someone suffering from hypoxia.

If there's one thing this has done it's show just how outdated aircraft tracking is.

 

[McLovin]

Would I be correct in assuming that Australia has sufficient radar etc to be sure that it hasn't landed / crashed on land in Australia?

Yes. JORN can apparently see things in such detail that it would be aware of a Cessna taking off in Indonesia. It has an unofficial range as far as Singapore.

 

[McLovin]

Here's a map that shows the last ping from the aircraft, a fuel range and all airports by runway length...

http://i.imgur.com/Iwa6Ali.jpg

A 777 needs at least 5000ft.

 

[Smurf1976]

Where do you get 171k L of Jet A1 fuel?

If it was landed at a military base then it would all be pretty easy. Put a properly trained pilot on board as hijacker, hijack the plane, land it, put it in a hangar out of sight. And they already have access to the required fuel at such a location or could at least get hold of it.

But in that case we're saying that a national government has hijacked a plane, landed it, and kept both the plane and passengers who originate from numerous countries. Whilst not totally impossible, it seems an incredibly unlikely scenario.

If someone wants a plane for use in a later terrorist attack, and is doing so with the full support of a national government or at least its' military, then it would likely be easier to just get some money together and buy an old plane from an airline via a normal sale process that arouses no suspicion. That would be a lot easier than hijacking and having half the world out looking for it.

This all seems very unlikely to me.....

 

[bellenuit]

If it was landed at a military base then it would all be pretty easy. Put a properly trained pilot on board as hijacker, hijack the plane, land it, put it in a hangar out of sight. And they already have access to the required fuel at such a location or could at least get hold of it.

But in that case we're saying that a national government has hijacked a plane, landed it, and kept both the plane and passengers who originate from numerous countries. Whilst not totally impossible, it seems an incredibly unlikely scenario.

If someone wants a plane for use in a later terrorist attack, and is doing so with the full support of a national government or at least its' military, then it would likely be easier to just get some money together and buy an old plane from an airline via a normal sale process that arouses no suspicion. That would be a lot easier than hijacking and having half the world out looking for it.

This all seems very unlikely to me.....

I wasn't suggesting that the plan was to hide the plane or refuel at a hidden airfield. I thought they may have planned to refuel it at any accessible airfield and then, with the extra range available, fly it to some target that is strategically important to the US or its allies. Disclosing the target an hour or so before reaching the target but declaring their plan is just to land nearby would put the US/Allies in the intolerable position of choosing between their people/resources (as it would be apparent that they would planning a 9/11 style attack and not land) or the Chinese passengers. The implications for US/Chinese relations would be enormous, should they shoot the plane down.

What made me think along those lines was the apparent route westwards shown on the map in post #58. The second last turn put the plane on a direct NNE line to Phuket, which is capable of landing and refueling a 777. Phuket is also the source of the stolen passports, so they might have been planning on adding more people or something else at that location. There was obviously some change of plan or circumstance that caused them to again turn westwards before reaching Phuket.

 

[Bintang]

Apparently the Captain of MH370 Zahari Amad Shah was a political activist and die-hard supporter of the Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. If so he cannot have been happy about the recent jailing (for the second time) of Anwar Ibrahim on trumped up charges of sodomy.
This could have been a strong motive for Captain Shah to 'hijack' his own plane and would be highly, highly embarrassing to the Malaysian Government.
Perhaps behind the scenes 'demands' have already been made - such as for example - release Anwar Ibrahim.
The Malaysian authorities will not be in a hurry to make that sort of thing public.

 

[rumpole]

Apparently the Captain of MH370 Zahari Amad Shah was a political activist and die-hard supporter of the Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. If so he cannot have been happy about the recent jailing (for the second time) of Anwar Ibrahim on trumped up charges of sodomy.
This could have been a strong motive for Captain Shah to 'hijack' his own plane and would be highly, highly embarrassing to the Malaysian Government.
Perhaps behind the scenes 'demands' have already been made - such as for example - release Anwar Ibrahim.
The Malaysian authorities will not be in a hurry to make that sort of thing public.

If the pilot did that, he would broadcast his demands to a wider audience than just Malaysia, and the question still remains "where in the world are they" ?

 

[drsmith]

I would be curious to know what, if any information has been obtained from mobile phone usage, iPhone's 'find my phone feature' and triangulating call out's etc.

It is likely there were over 200 phones on this flight, which most likely should have been turned off, but it could be possible one or more could have been left on.

Surely the authorities (whichever one pulls the most strings) has contacted all relatives to those on board and used the latest tech, to try and locate a phone? Someone knows something more than they will let on.

I did see an article during the week saying that mobile phones of passengers could be rung and a ring tone obtained up to some hours after the flight disappeared from civilian radar, but not the next day.

 

[Bintang]

If the pilot did that, he would broadcast his demands to a wider audience than just Malaysia, and the question still remains "where in the world are they" ?

Possibly but I still have an inkling there might be a connection between the disappearance of MH370 and Anwar Ibrahim.
If Captain Shah is involved he would need support and co-operation from someone on the ground at whatever location he was taking the aircraft to and he would either need the co-operation of his co-pilot Fariq Hamid or else he would have to ‘disable’ the co-pilot.

Captain Shah has some interesting stuff on his facebook page. (He clearly doesn't like the 'establishment'). For example:


And the co-pilot's facebook page is interesting as well. It says that he works for Malaysia Airlines but lives in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.

 

[rumpole]

Possibly but I still have an inkling there might be a connection between the disappearance of MH370 and Anwar Ibrahim.
If Captain Shah is involved he would need support and co-operation from someone on the ground at whatever location he was taking the aircraft to and he would either need the co-operation of his co-pilot Fariq Hamid or else he would have to ‘disable’ the co-pilot.

Captain Shah has some interesting stuff on his facebook page. (He clearly doesn't like the 'establishment'). For example:
View attachment 57257

And the co-pilot's facebook page is interesting as well. It says that he works for Malaysia Airlines but lives in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.
View attachment 57258

I guess he's lucky he still has(had) a job after that.

Anyway, off to watch Air Crash Investigation; QF32 engine explosion, should be fascinating and thankfully no casualties.

 

[drsmith]

Possibly but I still have an inkling there might be a connection between the disappearance of MH370 and Anwar Ibrahim.

If that's the case, it won't do Anwar Ibrahim any favours.

 

[Bintang]

If that's the case, it won't do Anwar Ibrahim any favours.

Anwar Ibrahim has been 'out of favours' for a long time already.

 

[DB008]

I can reduce that search area slightly. It's not in my back yard.

Within the circle, there are apparently two flight path options. One northwest from Malaysia towards Turkey and the other southwest over the Indian Ocean.

Check again Doc.

Ocean Off Perth Called Diverted Malaysian Plane's Most Likely Last Position

The weeklong search for a missing passenger jet shifted toward the Indian Ocean as Malaysia’s prime minister agreed with investigators that the aircraft was intentionally diverted.

Satellite transmissions that weren’t turned off along with other systems showed Malaysian Airline Flight 370 operated for almost seven hours after last making contact with air traffic controllers on March 8, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said yesterday. That may have taken the Boeing Co. 777-200 near the limits of its fuel load if it was airborne the whole period.

The movements of the plane, which veered off its Kuala Lumpur-to-Beijing course and flew back across the Malaysian peninsula before disappearing, were “consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane,” Najib said.

“In view of this latest development, the Malaysian authorities have refocused their investigation into the crew and passengers on board,” he said.

Satellite transmission data analyzed by U.S. investigators showed that the Malaysian Airline (MAS) System Bhd. jetliner’s most likely last-known position was in a zone about 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) west of Perth, Australia, said two people in the U.S. government who are familiar with the readings. Najib was told that is the most promising lead on locating the plane, one of the people said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-15/malaysia-sets-new-search-zone-as-flight-deliberately-diverted.html

 

[skc]

There was either a hijacking or not a hijacking. It seems to me these are the most probable explanations under each scenario.

Hijacking...

So I'm thinking that it's plausible that the plane was hijacked by someone with enough knowledge to keep it flying but who either couldn't, or didn't want to, land it. Therefore just keep flying until the fuel runs out.

In that case it could have been part of a plot that went wrong. Eg they intended to fly it into something in a 9/11 style attack (building, bridge, whatever) but messed that part up so just kept flying and crashed once the fuel ran out.

May be the Petronas twin towers? Not sure about motive but it will be consistent with the sharp U-turn made so close to leaving KL. If they wanted to not be tracked, they'd takeover the plane closer to the middle of the South China Sea and further away from populated radar areas.

I can't really accept the stealing a plane theory. It doesn't make sense to plan an attack with this being the first part... it's high risk and completely unnecessary. Unless there's someone really important on the plane who's the actual target.


No hijacking...

Some fault happened with the aircraft, incapacitating the crew and resulting in the plane flying in a path that by shear chance looks like it was trying to avoid radar. I haven't seen anything released yet that supports a "conclusive" view of hijacking... but it wouldn't surprise me that Malaysian governments will release more information in the future.

The actions of the crew look sinister, but they would also fit the profile of someone suffering from hypoxia.

Agree. It's hard to be conclusive about the intent of the pilot by looking at his flight path. It's like reading share price chart and concluding what the CEO of the company is thinking...

Given the latest reports of its course, the only thing that makes sense to me at the moment is that they suffered a total loss of electronic systems, including navigation and radios, got lost and wandered around not knowing where they were until they ran out of fuel and crashed.

As they were flying at night it would be easy to lose their bearings.

Without being knowledgable in aircraft or flying, surely they can still gain some bearing with simple methods like a compass, stars and moon (apparantly it was a clear sky), or lights from major ports and highways and coastlines and cities etc. If they had any control of the aircraft at all, they shouldn't be completely lost and be so far away. A ghost flight is possible but will require something happening to the crew in addition to just system failure.

 

[rumpole]

Without being knowledgable in aircraft or flying, surely they can still gain some bearing with simple methods like a compass, stars and moon (apparantly it was a clear sky), or lights from major ports and highways and coastlines and cities etc. If they had any control of the aircraft at all, they shouldn't be completely lost and be so far away. A ghost flight is possible but will require something happening to the crew in addition to just system failure.

One would hope so, but pilots rely on electronics a lot these days. How often do they actually practise manual navigation ? If all the electronic systems went down, they would have had a difficult enough job just keeping the plane in the air.

 

[sptrawler]

It seems to keep going back to a pilot turning hijacker.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/world/a/22013958/last-words-from-jet-after-systems-shutdown/

 

[drsmith]

Check again Doc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-15/malaysia-sets-new-search-zone-as-flight-deliberately-diverted.html

It would be a very high tide indeed if the Indian Ocean was to reach my back yard.

I agree that a track to the southwest from Malaysia over the Indian Ocean could take it to the west of Perth.

 

[drsmith]

Terrain masking,

http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing...under-radar-investigators-20140317-hvjlf.html

 

[skc]

It seems to keep going back to a pilot turning hijacker.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/world/a/22013958/last-words-from-jet-after-systems-shutdown/

They couldn't even thell who's voice it was for those last words.

Can't they analyse the voices like they do on the crime shows? Filter out the static and here how many people are breathing in the cockpit at the time?

 

[McLovin]

Check again Doc.

Satellite transmission data analyzed by U.S. investigators showed that the Malaysian Airline (MAS) System Bhd. jetliner’s most likely last-known position was in a zone about 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) west of Perth, Australia, said two people in the U.S. government who are familiar with the readings. Najib was told that is the most promising lead on locating the plane, one of the people said.

I don't know how they reached that conclusion. The ping is sent to a geostationary satellite. The only information that can be garnered from the ping is the distance between the aircraft and the satellite. That's why there are arcs extending north and south (the two "corridors"). Essentially you could draw a huge circle around the Earth that could be a last location. Of course because the aircraft didn't have unlimited fuel they only had to draw a couple of arcs extending north and south. So, basically, it's no more likey to have gone south than to have gone north, based on the evidence at hand currently.