Kevin Rudd for PM

[Garpal Gumnut]

This link may reinforce the chance of an early election. Just maybe March!!!!!!!!!!


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...race-of-her-life/story-e6frg7eo-1226551496738

+1

gg

 

[qldfrog]

wouldn't that whole set be interesting if this was not in the meantime bringing this country down the abyss.
Anyone but Gillard (or Abbott) is the general feeling.
However good/bright whatever Tony might be , he is not liked; he already lead the opposition to defeat once, could he please move on at least for the country and let liberals have a clear win instead of possibly another loss;
KR will come back: I disagree with a lot of his policies but he has at least some respect from me and is not a corrupt puppet in the hands of unions.
He might have a chance
More scared by Shorten actually, as his ego is bigger than JG and he is actually smart....

 

[Logique]

The race for Labor now is to move against Julia Gillard with either Kevin Rudd or Bill Shorten before she races the party to annihilation at an early election.

Not far wrong Doctor. Nervous backbenchers, especially in the marginals. It would be interesting to see who would be deputy leader under this scenario, i.e. would they make Shorten the deputy, or look to a (these days) more conventional approach, by making Roxon or Plibersek the deputy.

One thing I do know, Hawke is a patron of the current PM, and she'll go about as easily as he did. Paul Keating made repeated caucus challenges on the PM, until finally Hawke's PM'ship became untenable.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Kevin Rudd's shadow looms large over the ALP.

My contacts in "Brissie" tell me that the Little Emperor is none too happy that he has been outflanked by Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan and Bill Shorten in the announcement of an election.

Pundits tell me that destroying Rudd's chances of a return to leadership, is the only rational explanation for such a ****-eyed announcement.

His troops are rallying, with an important conference call underway as I post.

One needs to strike early and deep, if one feels aggrieved.

Watch this space.

For Kevin Rudd is a poisoned dwarf personified.

It is, as Julia Gillard famously says much too frequently, "on".

And the prize is victory for the ALP.

gg

 

[noco]

Has any one noticed how much weight our Kevin has added lately.

I think he has taken up what Joe has lost.

 

[MrBurns]

Has any one noticed how much weight our Kevin has added lately.

I think he has taken up what Joe has lost.

Living off the fat of the taxpayer.

 

[drsmith]

Kevin Rudd's shadow looms large over the ALP.

Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott have given his prospects a leg up.

He now looms large over the country, again.

 

[Whiskers]

Lots of comment and speculation about todays, or more particularly the last week or so's events, but I'll comment here where I think it's all going to end.

My judjement is most of the commentators can't see more than one step ahead at a time.

As I recall the ball got rolling by a couple of very experienced jurno's who wrote an article that copped heaps of scorn, but which they stood by. That lead to a degree of panic in the ALP and uncertainty about what was happening. Some believed Rudd was driving it all... maybe to some extent, but at a good arms length.

Crean's flip flopping and contradictions was evident of someone trying to jump to a winning ship again in a panic. Despite him saying he was acting in the best interests of the ALP by trying to settle the leadership issue, he was manipulated or more precisely panicked into changing allegiances again, and his credability is now shot.

Rudd on the other hand played a clever hand not contesting the leadership... ie standing by his earlier announcement not to challenge unless the leadership became vacant and he had the overwhelming support of caucus. Caucus is still paralyised by faction fighting, the last gasp of the remnents of the old guard who have been tossed out of NSW in particular, but also Vic, Qld and now WA.

I think Rudd, once stung (by being encouraged to challenge once before) is twice wise... and took the high moral ground, sticking firmly to his word and not being goaded into a challenge. Rudd came out with credability stronger at the expense of the 'faceless men' and Gillard who surcombe to the pressure to call a spill.

The polls will get worse and the cracks will widen again before the election. That's when Rudd will get what he demands... that enough rational heads in the ALP will tap Gillard on the shoulder. The faction bosses wont. They are blinded by their own ego and self interests and will lead the federal ALP to the same oblivion as has happened in the states.

It's a long shot for Rudd, but I believe he has figured this is the only way he and Labor can win the next election... to demonstrate to the public that he is no ones puppet and he can beat the 'faceless men'.

Stage one accumplished... he has come up shiney (despite some short sighted commentry) and Gillard is further dented. She is tough as old boots, but an old boot none the less.

Stage two... wait for a few weeks of more bad polls, despite some new attempted vote winning lures.

 

[Logique]

Good analysis Whiskers. I think Rudd played a smart hand yesterday.

 

[dutchie]

Lots of comment and speculation about todays, or more particularly the last week or so's events, but I'll comment here where I think it's all going to end.................


Stage two... wait for a few weeks of more bad polls, despite some new attempted vote winning lures.

Good analysis Whiskers. I think Rudd played a smart hand yesterday.

I think Rudd has now finally put himself out of the picture. He is finished.

He might as well go and see if Therese will give him a job.

Gillard is not tough just incompetent.

Bring on an early vote - "its the right thing to do"

 

[noco]

Good analysis Whiskers. I think Rudd played a smart hand yesterday.

+1. I agree. He did not challenge as he was waiting for the faceless men to tell Gillard to go and in doing so would have made it easy for Rudd.

I am sure Rudd is enjoying watching Gillard self destruct and is looking for revenge.

 

[MrBurns]

+1. I agree. He did not challenge as he was waiting for the faceless men to tell Gillard to go and in doing so would have made it easy for Rudd.

I am sure Rudd is enjoying watching Gillard self destruct and is looking for revenge.

He didn't have to challenge the position was open to nominate for, he wimped it, but you just have to look at him, how would anyone expect anything else. He's finished.

 

[sptrawler]

Even if Rudd does take over the leadership, it will be an absolute joke.
With Rudd followers currently stepping down and Gillard followers being promoted.
How do you think it will look if Rudd takes over and the musical chairs starts up yet again.
The whole ministry is looking looking like the 'magic roundabout'. Just shows the public how any idiot can be in charge of a portfolio.
Then again Swan has held the treasurers position for awhile.
Moral must be at an all time low with Gillard, Swan and Conroy, whipping them into a conga line.

 

[Whiskers]

He didn't have to challenge the position was open to nominate for, he wimped it, but you just have to look at him, how would anyone expect anything else. He's finished.

Take a look at this from the disenfranchised labor and swing voter perspective. Has he not stood for what they are looking for in a leader? Secondly, by not nominating when Gillard threw down the gauntlet, before he had the ' overwhelming support of the party he has honored his word not to challenge... at the expense of the Gillard camp who panicked into damage mitigation mode.

Even if Rudd does take over the leadership, it will be an absolute joke.
With Rudd followers currently stepping down and Gillard followers being promoted.
How do you think it will look if Rudd takes over and the musical chairs starts up yet again.

What are the key words Rudd used that will determine when he nominates for leader again? The answer is very poignant to his strategy and the sentiment behind his voter support.

...

Why does Rudd have so much general voter support for PM compared to Gillard, Abbot and any other prospective leader?

I suspect the main reason is he is not, or at least far less, influenced by unions, factions, lobby groups etc.

He has many flaws, but I'm thinking the voting public believes they will have better representation with an 'own man' like Rudd, who they think will now be more responsive to change his mind on a matter under public pressure, than faction/lobby sponsered leaders who have their own adgenda and selfrightiously dictate what is best for us.

While Abbot has enjoyed a pretty stable time as opposition leader, I think the public is mindefull that despite developing into quite a strong leader he still sufferes from the legacy of chief head kicker for Howard and while experiencing good loyalty atm, he also is far from an overwhelming first choice by his party with a degree of factionalism and lobby support at play there also.

Bottom line... my analysis suggests the Australian voters are expressing a desire for a PM and government with higher integrity and not appointed by or maliable by factions, corruption and lobby pressure. Rudd stands out against that criteria.

There are a lot of marginal labor members who still toe the line for Gillard and the faction, corruption status quo. The question is come closer to election day, will they take a pragmatic position to stay in government or go down with a sinking corrupt, selfrightious ship like the states and their support base to spite Rudd and the overwhelming wishes of the voting public!?

One of two things will happen... Gillard will be tapped on the shoulder and decide to go before the election. That's possible, but unlikely without some other catalyst... and no doubt one will come.

Gillard dogedly stays put and Labor is decimated and or there is another hung parliament in September with insufficient greens and independents to give Labor the numbers. That will be the ultimate foundation for Rudd to get what he demands... the annihilation of the 'faceless men'.

 

[dutchie]

We can safely say that Rudd started as a dud and is finished as a dud.

In six months time we will be able to say the same thing about Gillard.





Bring on an early election - "its the right thing to do"

 

[Whiskers]

We can safely say that Rudd started as a dud and is finished as a dud.

In six months time we will be able to say the same thing about Gillard.

The customer is always right, as they say... or in this case, the voter.

The Rudd. Gillard government 'amalgam' was certainly a toxic dud, but the voting public doesn't seem to extend that judgement to Rudd personally as leader.

Bring on an early election - "its the right thing to do"

No arguement there... but sometimes you just have to accept 'whatever will be will be' regardless of your own personal wishes or judgement, and make the most of what you can change or affect in the meantime. That is something Abbott and Rudd are both doing quite well atm.

It is somewhat ironic that that both their efforts at undermining Gillard are benefiting each other to a large extent atm. The test will be who can make the most of it all by September. I suspect Rudd or at least his supporters have another catalyst to fire off soon.

Btw, I wouldn't read the resignation of Rudd supporters so much as disenchantment with Rudd, but more disenchantment with Gillard. It's a nice guise to further distabalise the Gillard leadership after the panicked spill. Note, they may have resigned their portfolios, but I suspect still favor Rudd over Gillard and will come back into the fold with accolades once Rudds grand plan materalises.

 

[Julia]

UPDATE 12.42 More Kevin Rudd backer tipped to go after the former PM announced he would never again lead the Labor party.

Mental Health minister Mark Butler and Human Services Minister Kim Carr - both strong Rudd backers - have reportedly been told they cannot be 'servant of two masters', News Ltd reports.

11.30 Kevin Rudd says there are now "no circumstances" under which he would return to the Labor leadership.

Mr Rudd says he had been consistent that he would not challenge for the leadership and that he would contest the next election as a local member of parliament.

"That position hasn't changed," a spokesman told AAP.

"Furthermore, Mr Rudd wishes to make 100 per cent clear to all members of the parliamentary Labor Party, including his own supporters, that there are no circumstances under which he will return to the Labor Party leadership in the future."

It will be interesting to see how Rudd's numbers come up in the next poll (assuming the polling companies continue to ask the question despite the above).
I can't see his popularity as anything other than a reflection of the extreme public distaste for Ms Gillard, plus the sympathy factor for how he was knifed.

I acknowledge my bias against him (just can't stand the bloke) but would be surprised if too many people really believe his most recent action of not standing was really born out of the moral highground of keeping his word not to challenge, rather than the reality that he didn't actually have the numbers.
Plus why on earth would anyone want the current leadership of such a dysfunctional party? The poisoned chalice of being in charge when they lose? Of course he wouldn't put himself in such a position.

 

[Whiskers]

... why on earth would anyone want the current leadership of such a dysfunctional party? The poisoned chalice of being in charge when they lose? Of course he wouldn't put himself in such a position.

Just seen Rudds speech on the heels of the others today. Interestingly, no great sadness in any of the resignations, no anger or bitterness... actually they all seemed to be very cool, even smiling with their decision and comments. Quite orchestrated even in their request for the electorate to be kind to each other and look after Bowen as a future leader.

Rudds statement that " there are now no circumstances under which he would return to the Labor leadership", would necessairly turn more voters off voting for labor and plunge the polls further... assuming a few hung in for labor hoping he will return. Strategically, a strong move to depose Gillard, despite his followers combined plea to stand behind their leader.

What if other Rudd supporters (or at least non Gillard activasts) refuse promotion to cabinet or worse still, aren't invited? Catastropic disaster for Labor surely!

I'm sure Rudd would be forgiven for not forseeing a Gillard resignation from the leadership and her seat in parliament as the situation worsens, (cough, cough) to be invited to stand again, unopposed .

 

[drsmith]

It's a long shot for Rudd, but I believe he has figured this is the only way he and Labor can win the next election... to demonstrate to the public that he is no ones puppet and he can beat the 'faceless men'.

Stage one accumplished... he has come up shiney (despite some short sighted commentry) and Gillard is further dented. She is tough as old boots, but an old boot none the less.

Stage two... wait for a few weeks of more bad polls, despite some new attempted vote winning lures.

Rudd's message in this is that he can stick by his word, an interesting comparison in relation Gillard. If a vast majority come to him begging, a Jon Howard with the GST type of reversal is not out of the question.

I think though that he's delusional though if he thinks he can lead Labor to electoral victory. There's way to much damage for that.

Labor itself would be far better off without both Rudd and Gillard and the union hacks behind the latter. That's what the party as a whole needs to recognise.

 

[Julia]

If we look forward to the wash up after the election, do we perhaps have the makings of a decent Labor Party with Chris Bowen, Martin Ferguson, Kim Carr, Richard Marles, Joel Fitzgibbon, all of whom seem to be pretty conscientious and genuine people, and a serious alternative to the Coalition, especially considering the unpopularity of Mr Abbott?

If Gillard loses, as almost certainly she will, I wouldn't have thought she has the personality to retire to the back bench, and will rather exit politics. Ditto Wayne Swan, and the dreaded Conroy.

What Rudd will do is anyone's guess.