Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Calliope]

We are merely having a discussion, for Goodness sake.

I'm afraid, that in typical plod fashion you are floundering way out of your depth. The same applies to me. I had the presumption to think that I had something to add to the AGW debate, and it turned out that it was only common sense.

Basilio the heavyweight warmist alarmist on these pages, soon disabused me of my pretentions. He pointed out to me that common sense does not stack up against the science. Apparently he doesn't see any irony in this assertion.

As a disciple of Basilio I see that you are wisely avoiding using common sense.

 

[basilio]

For those who are interested.

Hansen and others have written a paper pulling together the current analysis of climate science research and the implications for our climate. It's not as short as one paragraph jottings and it does quote and refer to over 100 peer reviewed research papers

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf

Cheers

 

[explod]

Good link basilio.

For those concerned this is the vibe I mean but find too complex to get across to those who do not understand either.

And I am not being dogged I just say, we may have a problem and that we should be talking about what we can do about it.

And on this subject I will never go away. Fossill fuel use has to be stopped.

And as I have said before "plod" in Noddy simply stands for "goodness".

 

[white_goodman]

And I am not being dogged I just say, we may have a problem and that we should be talking about what we can do about it.

And on this subject I will never go away. Fossill fuel use has to be stopped..

"Mistakes can be corrected by those who pay attention to facts but dogmatism will not be corrected by those who are wedded to a vision"

 

[wayneL]

And on this subject I will never go away. Fossill fuel use has to be stopped.

The power of one Mr Plod - It starts with you. Ditch the car, the electricity etc, no lights, no heating, no air conditioning, no Internet.

Then you can convince Gore, Blanchett, the idiotic Caton et al.

Though I think you might be told that "you're dreamin'". LOL

 

[mexican]

Thats it.....I am going to get in my big block chevy and light it up a round the block getting 1.5km to a lt, put on everything in the house, light the open fire with a dozen bric a bracs on it and then the big one....I am going to crack open a dozen coke bottles at once!
Its the end of the world.............woooooo scary!

 

[wayneL]

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

New Paper: Maue (2011) Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity:

During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at near-historical record lows. According to a new peer-reviewed research paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records.
Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.
In his new paper, "Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity", Dr. Ryan Maue, a meteorologist from Florida State University, examined the last 40-years of global hurricane records and found strikingly large variability in both tropical cyclone frequency and energy from year-to-year. Since 2007, global tropical cyclone activity has decreased dramatically and has continued at near-historical low levels. Indeed, only 64 tropical cyclones were observed globally in the 12-months from June 2010 - May 2011, nearly 23-storms below average obliterating the previous record low set in 1977.

 

[explod]

Oh,

forgot to mention that on our 3AW news this morning they reported a 500 year flood in South Dekota.

 

[wayneL]

Oh,

forgot to mention that on our 3AW news this morning they reported a 500 year flood in South Dekota.

Statistics

Research kurtosis, specifically leptokurtosis.

 

[trainspotter]

Oh,

forgot to mention that on our 3AW news this morning they reported a 500 year flood in South Dekota.

Have you ever considered as man populates the earth and lives closer to the ocean or rivers etc that the devastation of floods, cyclones, fires etc will increase? Man has also changed the course of rivers and blocked natural drainage paths in his ever increasig desire to build houses as well as an attempt to control nature. DOH !

Stands to reason really.

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear or see it ... did it really fall?

 

[explod]

Statistics

Research kurtosis, specifically leptokurtosis.

Waynel, as I have expressed before, you are a beautifull thing but could you please explain what you have just said.

 

[wayneL]

Waynel, as I have expressed before, you are a beautifull thing but could you please explain what you have just said.

It's why only a fool uses normal distribution to calculate probabilities of price movement... and probably weather events.

 

[Ruby]

And I am not being dogged I just say, we may have a problem and that we should be talking about what we can do about it.

And on this subject I will never go away. Fossill fuel use has to be stopped.

Explod, now you are being naive. However, if you are serious you could practise what you are saying, and stop using all fossil fuels.

You will have to live without electricity, telephone, car, heating, most of the clothing you wear and most manufactured goods. You will have to live on food you grow yourself or which you can barter with other like-minded people. You can't use money, because money has to be minted, and that requires energy provided by fossil fuels. You will have to walk everywhere (unless you own a horse or donkey) because even a bicycle requires oil. You won't have any internet of course, so your only form of communication (apart from verbal) will be the written word - on paper you have made yourself, with writing implements you have made yourself.

You won't have any milk or butter (unless you have a cow) or eggs (unless you keep chooks) or meat (unless you or one of your neighbours butchers an animal), and of course no fresh food will keep for long because you won't have any refrigeration - nice in our hot summers! You will have to eat seasonal food, and if crops fail........ well!!

You will soon go out of your mind because you will have no books or newspapers to read; and you will be exhausted from doing backbreaking work from dawn till dark before you cook your meal over a wood fire - with wood you have collected yourself.

the only light you will have in the evening will be from candles made from rendered animal fat - hmmm! Lovely!!

Incidentally, if every single person in Australia did this; if we all reverted to a subsistance lifestyle tomorrow, the effect on the global temperature would be miniscule. Unless you are prepared to do this, you really have no case.

Below is a list of things you can't use, because they are made from petroleum

http://www.ranken-energy.com/Products from Petroleum.htm

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thats it.....I am going to get in my big block chevy and light it up a round the block getting 1.5km to a lt, put on everything in the house, light the open fire with a dozen bric a bracs on it and then the big one....I am going to crack open a dozen coke bottles at once!
Its the end of the world.............woooooo scary!

Wait on a minute ... that's what everyone else in the world is doing. Nah, it'll be alright.

 

[mexican]

Explod, now you are being naive. However, if you are serious you could practise what you are saying, and stop using all fossil fuels.

You will have to live without electricity, telephone, car, heating, most of the clothing you wear and most manufactured goods. You will have to live on food you grow yourself or which you can barter with other like-minded people. You can't use money, because money has to be minted, and that requires energy provided by fossil fuels. You will have to walk everywhere (unless you own a horse or donkey) because even a bicycle requires oil. You won't have any internet of course, so your only form of communication (apart from verbal) will be the written word - on paper you have made yourself, with writing implements you have made yourself.

You won't have any milk or butter (unless you have a cow) or eggs (unless you keep chooks) or meat (unless you or one of your neighbours butchers an animal), and of course no fresh food will keep for long because you won't have any refrigeration - nice in our hot summers! You will have to eat seasonal food, and if crops fail........ well!!

You will soon go out of your mind because you will have no books or newspapers to read; and you will be exhausted from doing backbreaking work from dawn till dark before you cook your meal over a wood fire - with wood you have collected yourself.

the only light you will have in the evening will be from candles made from rendered animal fat - hmmm! Lovely!!

Incidentally, if every single person in Australia did this; if we all reverted to a subsistance lifestyle tomorrow, the effect on the global temperature would be miniscule. Unless you are prepared to do this, you really have no case.

Below is a list of things you can't use, because they are made from petroleum

http://www.ranken-energy.com/Products from Petroleum.htm

You forgot one pretty important material Ruby........STEEL. Without coking coal no steel!!!

 

[noco]

Explod, now you are being naive. However, if you are serious you could practise what you are saying, and stop using all fossil fuels.

You will have to live without electricity, telephone, car, heating, most of the clothing you wear and most manufactured goods. You will have to live on food you grow yourself or which you can barter with other like-minded people. You can't use money, because money has to be minted, and that requires energy provided by fossil fuels. You will have to walk everywhere (unless you own a horse or donkey) because even a bicycle requires oil. You won't have any internet of course, so your only form of communication (apart from verbal) will be the written word - on paper you have made yourself, with writing implements you have made yourself.

You won't have any milk or butter (unless you have a cow) or eggs (unless you keep chooks) or meat (unless you or one of your neighbours butchers an animal), and of course no fresh food will keep for long because you won't have any refrigeration - nice in our hot summers! You will have to eat seasonal food, and if crops fail........ well!!

You will soon go out of your mind because you will have no books or newspapers to read; and you will be exhausted from doing backbreaking work from dawn till dark before you cook your meal over a wood fire - with wood you have collected yourself.

the only light you will have in the evening will be from candles made from rendered animal fat - hmmm! Lovely!!

Incidentally, if every single person in Australia did this; if we all reverted to a subsistance lifestyle tomorrow, the effect on the global temperature would be miniscule. Unless you are prepared to do this, you really have no case.

Below is a list of things you can't use, because they are made from petroleum

http://www.ranken-energy.com/Products from Petroleum.htm

Just love it Ruby. That should be enough to keep explod quiet for a while.

 

[Calliope]

That should be enough to keep explod quiet for a while.

You're dreaming

 

[basilio]

"Fossil fuel use has to be stopped"

Well Explod's comment has certainly brought out every extreme possibility in the book. And the discussion is a bit one sided. So let's consider more closely what is meant by Explod's comments and the alternatives.

Firstly the idea of stopping the use of fossil fuel is largely directly at replacing coal fired powered stations and changing the energy use of transport. If we are to reduce CO2 emissions by what is necessary then we need to bring on line solar thermal, wind power, photovaltaic, perhaps even 4th generation thorium nuclear power stations. And if we want to replace a substantial amount of the petrol powered cars with electric cars or public transport then we probably need to increase total electricity production to meet that need.

But we probably won't be able to reduce CO2 emissions sufficiently by just changing how we generate power. Storing carbon in the soil with extensive tree plantings and pyrolysis and burial of organic mater into carbon will also be required. These and many other processes are part of what would be required to successfully make a drastic reduction in CO2 emissions.

While we are talking about getting off fossil fuel let's recognize that we will have to do this anyway Fossil fuels, particularly oil, are running down. On the International Eneragy Agencies own figures we are facing an irreversible shortage of oil within the next few years. So even if we don't want to go down this path - we have no choice. Does anyone want to reconsider their comments ?

Cheers

 

[Smurf1976]

"Fossil fuel use has to be stopped"

Well Explod's comment has certainly brought out every extreme possibility in the book. And the discussion is a bit one sided. So let's consider more closely what is meant by Explod's comments and the alternatives.

Obviously we can't keep burning fossil fuels forever. It's the timing of a change that's in question.

One of the things that seriously scares me about the whole CO2 thing is the notion that we should use natural gas, the only real alternative to diminishing oil supplies we have for transport, to generate electricity. That's like turning diamonds into lead. If we're going to meddle with the means of producing electricity then banning baseload gas, rather than increasing it, would make more sense...

10 years from now, I doubt you'll hear a word about CO2. The focus then will be on the ongoing liquid fuels problems and we'll be wishing we hadn't either exported or burnt for electricity just about all the gas we have. Import parity pricing for gas seems likely at some point, and with Russia and the Middle East dominating supply it's not going to be cheap.

If we focused on a sensible energy strategy then we'd fix the CO2 issue in due course anyway. But by focusing on CO2 directly, we're going to create a lot of serious headaches for ourselves down the track as far as transport fuels are concerned. It can only be burnt once, and global reserves relative to future consumption aren't exactly large.

The former state electricity authorities understood this very well, and it is why most of them had a conscious and very visible objective to maximise the share of production from coal and hydro, so as to minimise the use of gas and oil.

 

[Ruby]

"Fossil fuel use has to be stopped"

Well Explod's comment has certainly brought out every extreme possibility in the book. And the discussion is a bit one sided. So let's consider more closely what is meant by Explod's comments and the alternatives.........

Basilio, I know my comments were extreme. That was my rather frustrated response to naive comments "something has to be done............ fossil fuel use has to be stopped". It is not that simplistic. We currently have no viable alternative, and I don't see our government building lots of nuclear power stations, wind farms or installing (Australian made) solar panels on every surface that the sun shines on.

Even if we do everything you suggest, our efforts will make little measurable difference to global temperatures (which are not rising anyway).