And it isn't by any means the first time Treasury's projections have been hopelessly wrong. viz the constant adjustments to surplus/deficit forecasts.
The Independents are smart enough to realise any alliance with the coalition will mean the Nationals are out to discredit and dislodge them, on the basis that the Nats feel the Independents have taken seats which rightfully belong to the Nats. The Independents are no different from any other politicians, and will have primarily in mind their own political well being.
Julia, all three have a National back ground with a predominately National Party support. However, if they do support Labor, Katter and Windsor won't be too worried as I believe both will retire before the next election as both are in their mid sixties. As for Oakeshott, I am not so sure.
I may get shot down in flames for suggesting it, but it would not surprise me if Abbott has stitched up a deal for two to back Labor and one to back the Coalition, giving Gillard a one seat majority. He may be desirous of giving Gillard enough 'rope to hang herself' whereby the Government will become disfunctional half way through it's term.
Who would want to govern under these circumstances?