2010 Federal Election

[Mofra]

She certainly speaks more spin than Rudd - but she has met her match in Oakshott.

She speaks in about as much spin as the majority of them do - sadly, I think Oakshott's legacy will be his 16 minute speech which isn't a true reflection of him.

Normally, he is actually one of the fewer straight talking politicians - a position shared almost solely by those not beholden to either of the major parties.

 

[Julia]

Does this mean Gillard still has not been voted in by the Australian people?

Effectively, yes. The Coalition received the highest primary vote and the highest 2PP, so it's pretty hard to see anyone able to claim the wishes of the people have been respected.

Well looks like we will see a price on carbon at some stage going by the interviews with no impact on climate just another tax to help drive living costs up, what happens with boats cant see any solution there either, budget in surplus by 2013 no don't think so, this will probably turn into a bigger circus at some stage, Tony Windsor I can put up with Rob Oakeshott the biggest tosser I seen don't get me started on the Greens totally scary what ideas they will throw around especially come middle of next year and to think Wayne Swan a man with a IQ in single digits stays as Treasurer for another 3 years is a complete joke.

Agree in particular about Wayne Swan, though the comment about his IQ might be a bit of an exaggeration. I have no idea how he can remain as Deputy PM or Treasurer. Every time he's interviewed, his responses are quasi hysterical, repetitive spin, giving little heed to the actual question asked.
I'd prefer to see Chris Bowen as Treasurer. He has credibility.
Would there be any support for Swan to be demoted and even Kevin Rudd replacing him?

17 days for the independents to dawdle to a decision. Which for all the open-mindedness and depth of analysis displayed, might have been reached over a coffee on day 2.

I agree. I don't believe they didn't have their minds made up at the outset, but felt they had to go through the motions of appearing to consider both sides, plus, of course, the negotiation process has allowed them to ramp up what they get for their own electorates. I suspect their sense of triumph may be short lived.

So it's to be 3 more years of wealth re-distribution more than it's creation, of the public sector more than the private. And electricity prices on potential breakout alert. The golden children of middle-class welfare, upon whom government handouts will continue rain like confetti, will of course be cocooned from the slightest inconvenience.

That's about right, too.

 

[namrog]

Effectively, yes. The Coalition received the highest primary vote and the highest 2PP, so it's pretty hard to see anyone able to claim the wishes of the people have been respected.

Such was the closeness of the election result, that had the independents gone the other way, it could also be argued that the wishes of the people had not been respected...but this is the system we've got, maybe it needs to be changed...

This other thing about 2PP is a bit of a grey area for mine, because it isn't really between 2 partys, its between labor and a coalition of 2 seperate parties, libs and nationals....

So in reality labor received the highest primary vote, and the highest 3PP............yeah I know.......!!

 

[Timmy]

The Coalition received the ... highest 2PP,

I have queried this assertion of yours on another thread too Julia.

The 2PP calculation is not yet complete, until it is we will not know which side received the highest 2PP.

The latest update on the AEC website is (my bolding to highlight the info relevant to the 2PP):

* Across Australia 14,088,260 electors enrolled to vote.
* Currently 92.90% of the primary vote has been counted.
* The two party preferred count is 88.27% complete.
* The election results on this website were last updated at 8/09/2010 2:12:43 PM.
* This website was last published at 8/09/2010 2:29:04 PM.

Information and projections on this website are based on the votes counted to date. Calculations such as the turnout figure, level of informal votes, swings, Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) and Two Party Preferred (TPP) vote counts will change as the counting progresses. Figures and calculations on this website should not be considered final until notified as such - until then all results are indicative only.

Further explanation is available on the AEC website.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm

 

[Knobby22]

Everyone is taliking about Labor being number one for middle class welfare.

Tony Abbotts child support plan where the more you earn the more you get doesn't qualify as middle class welfare??
And Howard imtroduced heaps of middle class welfare. They took it with one hand and gave it out as election sweeteners.

 

[explod]

I have queried this assertion of yours on another thread too Julia.

The 2PP calculation is not yet complete, until it is we will not know which side received the highest 2PP.

The latest update on the AEC website is (my bolding to highlight the info relevant to the 2PP):


http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm

And aside from that, the Labor Government is now in a coalition. Gillard's position is as legitimate as Howard's was when he was part of a coalition with the Nationals.

We can all adjust our speak and sentences to suit our wishes but the reality is, the Libs and Nats have lost this one as at this time. Next week or in a month it could be a different story, when parliament gets cracking again it is going to be chaos and we may have to revamp this thread for another count down; IMVHO

 

[-Bevo-]

Would there be any support for Swan to be demoted and even Kevin Rudd replacing him?

Bit like replacing one Lemon with another, after the election when in fighting began, I remember reading that alot of Labor insiders are about as happy with Swan as they were with Rudd, trouble is wouldn't look good if Labors shadow men went and knifed both PM and his Deputy.

 

[wayneL]

Everyone is taliking about Labor being number one for middle class welfare.

Tony Abbotts child support plan where the more you earn the more you get doesn't qualify as middle class welfare??
And Howard imtroduced heaps of middle class welfare. They took it with one hand and gave it out as election sweeteners.

Agree, if you remember, wayneL was most irritated with the Howard gu'mint on this point (excuse the third person self reference). This type of electoral bribery must be eradicated from politics summum bonum IMO.

 

[wayneL]

And aside from that, the Labor Government is now in a coalition. Gillard's position is as legitimate as Howard's was when he was part of a coalition with the Nationals.

Is this an official "coalition" though? In effect it is, but there is no binding ideology which might stay the distance like the Lib/Nat coalition.

This is coalition by pork barrel (i.e. bribery).

 

[nulla nulla]

HUH

I'm under the impression she was born in wales and migrated to south australia. Went to mitcham school then unley high school. Started uni in adelaided then went finished in melbourne?

Has she taken Australian Citizenship yet or does she travel on a United Kingdom Passport?

 

[nioka]

Has she taken Australian Citizenship yet or does she travel on a United Kingdom Passport?

During a previous election campaign I remember a candidate was disqualified because they were not an Australian citizen. She was British and had lived here most of her life. So I guess the answer is yes. Abbott would not have missed something like that.

 

[Julia]

Such was the closeness of the election result, that had the independents gone the other way, it could also be argued that the wishes of the people had not been respected...but this is the system we've got, maybe it needs to be changed...

I'd prefer to see a simple first past the post system.

I have queried this assertion of yours on another thread too Julia.

The 2PP calculation is not yet complete, until it is we will not know which side received the highest 2PP.

The latest update on the AEC website is (my bolding to highlight the info relevant to the 2PP):


http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm

OK, Timmy. Whatever you say. I was going by unchallenged comments by all involved politicians today, plus the most recent comments by Antony Green, the ABC's political analyst which were that it was most unlikely Labor would come out on top in the 2PP.

If Labor thought there was still some doubt about the outcome of the 2PP, why wouldn't they have challenged this amongst the multiple references to it by the Coalition today?

Still, obviously if the vote is not completely counted, you are justified in chastising me for inaccuracy.


Do you consider the final result reflects the 'will of the people'?
Do you believe the independents acted in the best interests of the nation, or in primarily self interest?
Because that's essentially what we're discussing.

Everyone is taliking about Labor being number one for middle class welfare.

Tony Abbotts child support plan where the more you earn the more you get doesn't qualify as middle class welfare??
And Howard imtroduced heaps of middle class welfare. They took it with one hand and gave it out as election sweeteners.

Not to mention the extraordinary parental leave scheme proposed in this campaign, for which business was to be levied.

 

[trainspotter]

40.99 per cent LABOR
50.01 COALITION

(numbers are recognised as accurate by mainstream media) Not neccesarily by the AEC who have given up in disgust at the end of the day. LOL

Hmmmmmmmmmmm .... first past the post indeed !

 

[Timmy]

Still, obviously if the vote is not completely counted, you are justified in chastising me for inaccuracy.

No chastising, just the facts. Like you say this particular distortion of the facts has gone unchallenged and you would not be alone in believing it. I was lucky I stumbled across a discussion of it today and subsequently did the investigation myself, otherwise I might have just accepted it too.

I find it heartening that misinformation like this can be corrected on ASF.

 

[trainspotter]

I am currently watching "Carnivale" on Foxtel and the bearded lady said "Sometimes you just don't have to believe in management" .. sounded strange coming from a "beard" LOLOL

 

[Timmy]

comments by Antony Green, the ABC's political analyst which were that it was most unlikely Labor would come out on top in the 2PP.

Here is an interesting tidbit from Antony Green:

In 1998 the Howard Coalition government was re-elected in majority with only 49.0% of the 2-party preferred vote.

Source: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/who-won-the-national-2-party-preferred-vote.html (I urge anyone with an unbiased interest in the 2PP to read this whole article from Antony Green. You might find something to post to offset my carefully selected quote).

 

[namrog]

On the 2PP issue.

In the 1998 election , Beazleys labor ended up with 50.98 % of the votes on a 2pp basis, while Howards coalition achieved 49.02%.

Despite this , the coalition won with many seats to spare, can't remember exactly, around 7 or 8 maybe more.. what this shows is that the two party preffered percentages don't really matter that much...

Just got in before me, we must be thinking alike Timmy

 

[Whiskers]

On the 2PP issue.

In the 1998 election , Beazleys labor ended up with 50.98 % of the votes on a 2pp basis, while Howards coalition achieved 49.02%.

Despite this , the coalition won with many seats to spare, can't remember exactly, around 7 or 8 maybe more.. what this shows is that the two party preffered percentages don't really matter that much...

Just got in before me, we must be thinking alike Timmy

I think the two party preferred percentage did matter to Howard, it's just that he and Robb threw more resources at winable seats and issues, or rather didn't waste too much time and resources on unwinable seats and issues... except for the last one, that he got badly wrong.

Things like the Baby Bonus and starting off the Tax Cuts adgenda gave Howard an edge. Whereas I think Abbott, while beating the Economic Management drum quite effectively, didn't effectively counter the Labor fear of the return to WorkChoices. Because that issue trancends and adversely affected such a wide cross section of the voting public, he really needed to counter the ALP fear, probably by spelling out early in the campaign exactly what changes he was considering, rather than leaving people guessing how little ot lots he was considering. That may well have been the differance for enough swinging voters to cost him government.

 

[sails]

....
Despite this , the coalition won with many seats to spare, can't remember exactly, around 7 or 8 maybe more.. what this shows is that the two party preffered percentages don't really matter that much...

I think the fact that the coalition won with seats to spare is where the difference lies.

In this current situation when there was no clear seat majority on either side, of course people are going to look at which party had the highest number of votes.

Very different to Howard's win with a low 2PP.

 

[explod]

Is this an official "coalition" though? In effect it is, but there is no binding ideology which might stay the distance like the Lib/Nat coalition.

This is coalition by pork barrel (i.e. bribery).

A new order has to start somewhere. "Bribery" to some, negotiation to others;

or readjustment.

Still tip fresh election soon.