2010 Federal Election

[Calliope]

Very, very good work Comrade Gav. Vith dis excellent brief Ve should be able to send Comrade Gillard to Ziberia az quickly as Comrades Noco, wayne, calliope et al put ze pen to ze paper.

Vell done. It is truly hiumbling to see how de great minds of our time can create zuch a beautiful piece of legal vork..

Pathetic :silly::silly::silly:

 

[noco]

As I understand what I've been reading on this, she has guaranteed not to even leave open the option of a double dissolution election in her commitment to go the full three years. If the results of a Green/Labor/Independent parliament are as we anticipate, this could be horrible beyond belief.

With such a close result and outcome of this election, I doubt Ms. Gillard would be game to go to a double dissolution during her term if she is successful in her quest for power.

I really cannot see her lasting the full term and Tony Abbott would be in similar cicumstances should he be the new Prime Minister.

With the history of Wayne Swan and Treasury, it would not surprise me in the least if Treasury were instructed to discredit the coalitions costings if it were possible. There is some 'IFS and BUTS' about how or what model Treasury used to determine the outcome. How can anyone trust Treasury when they stated the income from the Miners Super Profir tax (40%) would be $12 billion. Then when Gillard renegotiated the Miners Rent Tax (28%) to some 300 miners and not some 2500, they stated there would only be a reduction of $1.5 billion in income. When challenged on this point, treasury stated they made a mistake and the original figure of the MSPT was $24 billion. Not a very good record I would suggest.

I reiterate, this will be a good election for Abbott to lose.

 

[bellenuit]

Then when Gillard renegotiated the Miners Rent Tax (28%) to some 300 miners and not some 2500, they stated there would only be a reduction of $1.5 billion in income. When challenged on this point, treasury stated they made a mistake and the original figure of the MSPT was $24 billion.

I don't recall Treasury saying they made a mistake. From what I recall, they said that the forecast price of iron ore used in calculating the tax revenue had been revised upwards between the initial calculation used for the original super profits tax and the subsequent calculation used for the newer agreement. Whether that revision was part of the normal data analysis made by Treasury or was at the behest of the government, we will never know. But for sure, Wayne Swan was quite dishonest to hide from the public that the reason the expected tax take was not very much less than before was largely due to a revision in the assumptions used in the calculations.

 

[basilio]

Entitled "Aussie democracy, a tale of Perversion", this from David Penberthy in today's "Sunday Mail" is pretty funny. He's suggested readers can choose their own ending.

Quote:
Ending One: On Monday September 6, Julia Gillard announces the formation of a Labor Green minority government with the support of Independents Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor.

Gillard dispatches Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese to Tasmania to turn the sod on the construction phase for the very fast train linking Hobart, Tamworth and that little town outside Port Macquarie where they sell tasty mangoes in boxes. At his first weekly fireside meeting with Ms Gillard, deputy prime minister Bob Brown wins approval to turn Kirribilli House into a safe injection room for heroin users.

The national broadband network opens, but only in Tamworth, prompting several members of the NSW government to relocate immediately, declaring they've had an 'absolute gutful' of the slow downloads on pr0n sites at Macquarie Street.

Troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan and redeployed at the front of homes on bin night to make sure everyone rinses the milk cartons before putting them in the recycling. The first gay marriage is conducted on the steps of Parliament House, the national flag replaced with a rainbow coloured ensign as Peter Allen's I Go to Rio blares out on the forecort, with Tim Mathieson giving the happy grooms a complimentary haircut before they tie the knot.


Ending Two: On Monday September 6, Tony Abbott announces the formation of a Coalition minority government with the support of Independents Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor. Despite failing in his bid to offer Andrew Wilkie $1 billion for a new Hobart hospital, Mr Abbott forms government after offering Bob Katter $1B for the banana industry, Rob Oakeshott $1B for the Pacific Highway and Tony Windsor $1B to nip down the shop for a toasted ham sandwich.

The price of sugar reaches $148 kg as Katter demands the reintroduction of tariffs for cane farmers. Unemployment among dentists hits a staggering 87%. The Katter sponsored Quaint Rural Existence Bill 2010 is introduced, forcing all Australians to boil the billy, rstle a jumbuck, hump their swag and do some whittlin' on the front porch at least once a week.



Ending Three: On Monday September 6 Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott announce the formation of a Government of National Unity under the guidance of Independent MP Rob Oakeshott. Under a complex week around time sharing arrangement, Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott will be prime minister for 25 weeks of the year, with Bob Brown looking after the fortnight over Christmas.

Workchoices is reintroduced and then repealed and then brought in again and then scrapped, with agreement ultimately being reached so that workers receive a 17.5 % loading for being kind enough to clock on in the weeks Ms Gillard is prime minister, and then sacked for being low bludgers a week later when Mr Abbott is back in charge.

The boats are turned back, then turned around, then turned back, then welcomed with open arms, prompting frustrated people smugglers to declare that Australia has become so confusing they will take their business elsewhere. Question Time goes for seven hours, is held every day and ends with Rob Oakeshott, in chinos and bare feet, playing "I am, You are, We are Australian" on his guitar.


Ending Four: On Tuesday September 7, the 85% of Australian people who didn't vote for any of the above rubbish join me poolside at the swim-up bar at the Club del Sol, Acapulco, where the stability provided by the Mexican government provides a safe haven for Aussies on the run from this perversion of democracy.

Ay caramba.

Just brilliant!! Well spotted.

 

[IFocus]

Opposition leader is the hardest job in town bar none if Abbott loses Malcolm will be looking closely at the numbers the smell of power will drive him crazy (quote from a article cant remember which)

If Gillard loses leader ship-wise suspect the NSW right will get a real kicking but Gillard will still have the numbers I would'nt expect a change. Forget Rudd in opposition for leader ship and Shorten is way to inexperience the numbers people wouldn't consider him.

If either side get up expect 3 years the independents will not force an early election and encumbered will not go early.

As for the independents they are far more reliable / smarter (including Katter) than 75% of the MPs from either side. They know what the jungle is really like they don't have a party machine behind them but yet get elected.

 

[Julia]

I don't recall Treasury saying they made a mistake. From what I recall, they said that the forecast price of iron ore used in calculating the tax revenue had been revised upwards between the initial calculation used for the original super profits tax and the subsequent calculation used for the newer agreement.

Yes, that's exactly as I recall their explanation also.

Christopher Pyne was questioned on TV today about their dodgy costings.
An example given by the interviewer was: "How can you claim the dollar asset of the sale of Medibank Private, and at the same time include the income from this organisation?" Mr Pyne was briefly flustered and then quickly moved to change the subject.


Pretty fair question if that's actually what the Libs did.
I find it hard to believe they would be so stupid as to do this in the first place.

 

[Calliope]

Pretty fair question if that's actually what the Libs did.
I find it hard to believe they would be so stupid as to do this in the first place.

Don't underestimate their ineptness. I can think of quite a few stupid things they have done. Probably the worst was not to realise that they had no chance of swinging the Independents.

Even blind Freddy could see it was a lost cause Agreeing to their demands has now put them in a weaker position in opposition, and ensures Parliament runs its full term.

Gillard has outwitted Abbott at every turn.

 

[wayneL]

If either side get up expect 3 years the independents will not force an early election and encumbered will not go early.

Interesting malapropism there Ifocus.

I think you mean incumbent.

 

[sails]

Not sure if this article has been posted previously, but it doesn't give much confidence for Treasury's maths skills:


If the big miners are right on mining tax revenue, Labor has dug itself into a financial hole

THERE is a huge gap between what Labor expects its minerals resource rent tax to raise and what the big three miners expect to pay.

The new mining tax, according to Treasury, will raise $10.5 billion in its first two years of operation. ...BHP, Rio Tinto and Xstrata.... don't believe it will cost them more than a few hundred million dollars extra each year.

That only adds up to around $1bn a year in total from them in contrast to the $5bn-$6bn a year extra predicted by Treasury and promised by Labor.

But then what's a few billion if labor is out on it's costings. If the Coalition had made the same mistakes with their calculations as labor, they would have been hung and quartered. And this isn't the first time labor has got this mining tax muddled.

 

[Logique]

Speaks for itself. Neat summary of where they are at today.

http://bigpondnews.com/articles/TopStories/2010/09/06/Oakeshott_prepared_to_compromise_509577.html
Monday, September 06, 2010 » 08:47am

Independent MP Rob Oakeshott says he is prepared to compromise on which party to back if there is a tie....
Mr Oakeshott told reporters in Canberra he expected to meet with both party leaders more than once on Monday.
'We'll just see how today unfolds and see what sort of final folders are made by both parties,' he said....

Like Mr Windsor, he said he would consider changing his vote to avoid a stalemate....

The three men had a 'full spread' of political and policy views but were willing to put them aside in the nation's interest, Mr Oakeshott said.

 

[noco]

Not sure if this article has been posted previously, but it doesn't give much confidence for Treasury's maths skills:


If the big miners are right on mining tax revenue, Labor has dug itself into a financial hole



But then what's a few billion if labor is out on it's costings. If the Coalition had made the same mistakes with their calculations as labor, they would have been hung and quartered. And this isn't the first time labor has got this mining tax muddled.

Thanks for this post sails and the link on the mining tax.

This reinforces my previous post whereby treasury can't be trusted to be honest and acurate. Treasury was obviously instructed to discredit the coalitons economic credentials as much as possible to give Labor something to glout about the reported $11 billion black hole in the coalitions costing.
It was deliberately done to sway the independants.

 

[Calliope]

The three men had a 'full spread' of political and policy views but were willing to put them aside in the nation's interest, Mr Oakeshott said.

Logique,
These are three wise and unselfish men who are willing to put the interests of the nation ahead of what may be in their best interests.

So when they plump for Labor it may be with heavy heart, but they don't mind being martyrs for a great cause, steering Australia toward a progressive society, where everybody cares for everybody else.

 

[chrisalex]

NOCOS' words "this will be a good election for Abbott to lose." Spot on
With the power brokers of the ALP, The Greens, The Independents, all this lot with their own agenda. I can see poor old Julia going grey rapidly. Cannot see this lasting 3 years, too many Captains.

 

[Mofra]

With the history of Wayne Swan and Treasury, it would not surprise me in the least if Treasury were instructed to discredit the coalitions costings if it were possible. There is some 'IFS and BUTS' about how or what model Treasury used to determine the outcome.

If the tin-foil brigade are correct (which I doubt) then surely this means Abbott should never govern this country whilst he is so unpopular with Treasury?

How on Earth could such a toxic relationship be in the national interest?

 

[Calliope]

NOCOS' words "this will be a good election for Abbott to lose." Spot on
With the power brokers of the ALP, The Greens, The Independents, all this lot with their own agenda. I can see poor old Julia going grey rapidly. Cannot see this lasting 3 years, too many Captains.

The three independents are doing everything in their power to ensure it does last three years. Another election and their power base would disappear. That's why they keep harping about stability, and trying to change the rules to entrench Labor.

If Abbott signs up to Oakeshott's parliamentary reforms it would confirm my belief that he is not up to the job, and never will be.

 

[Julia]

But then what's a few billion if labor is out on it's costings. If the Coalition had made the same mistakes with their calculations as labor, they would have been hung and quartered. And this isn't the first time labor has got this mining tax muddled.

And it isn't by any means the first time Treasury's projections have been hopelessly wrong. viz the constant adjustments to surplus/deficit forecasts.

The three independents are doing everything in their power to ensure it does last three years. Another election and their power base would disappear. That's why they keep harping about stability, and trying to change the rules to entrench Labor.

.

The Independents are smart enough to realise any alliance with the coalition will mean the Nationals are out to discredit and dislodge them, on the basis that the Nats feel the Independents have taken seats which rightfully belong to the Nats. The Independents are no different from any other politicians, and will have primarily in mind their own political well being.

 

[noco]

NOCOS' words "this will be a good election for Abbott to lose." Spot on
With the power brokers of the ALP, The Greens, The Independents, all this lot with their own agenda. I can see poor old Julia going grey rapidly. Cannot see this lasting 3 years, too many Captains.

With grey hair, that would be the new look Joolya ACT 3. Sure would be a change from the RED. Although the the RED depicts her political beliefs with her Green comrades.

 

[noco]

NOCOS' words "this will be a good election for Abbott to lose." Spot on
With the power brokers of the ALP, The Greens, The Independents, all this lot with their own agenda. I can see poor old Julia going grey rapidly. Cannot see this lasting 3 years, too many Captains.

chrisalex, I believe another 12 -18 months of Labor pains is worth the sacrifice of pleasure for the next 20 years.

 

[IFocus]

Interesting malapropism there Ifocus.

I think you mean incumbent.

Thanks Wayne thanks for helping out with my illiteracy

 

[noco]

If the tin-foil brigade are correct (which I doubt) then surely this means Abbott should never govern this country whilst he is so unpopular with Treasury?

How on Earth could such a toxic relationship be in the national interest?

No Mofra, you've got it wrong. Treasury and Ken Henry are very biased towards Labor and you will never convince me otherwise. It's wheels within wheels.