SDL - Sundance Resources

[LRG]

SDL is in the league of FMG - 8 cents to $10+ then down again.

or MCC $3-4 2 years ago up to $20 when Talbot sold, then down to $4 again.

IMO when they sign up funding the sp will eclipse $1. Remember 18 mths ago it was in the 80 cents.

My long term view is $10-15 by 2013/14 - another FMG, then get out as it will pull back.

Unless there is significant dilution when funding partner is found.

 

[quinn123]

With a mining share of this nature, when do you think the share price will reach its peak? (if assuming all future targets go to plan e.g. finance, construction & production) Will the share price reach its peak when financing is approved? Or when constuction of mine occurs? Or do you believe a couple of years after production? Are there any similar shares that you could compare Sundance Resources to in terms of share price history? Thanks!

 

[Miner]

SDL is in the league of FMG - 8 cents to $10+ then down again.

or MCC $3-4 2 years ago up to $20 when Talbot sold, then down to $4 again.

IMO when they sign up funding the sp will eclipse $1. Remember 18 mths ago it was in the 80 cents.

My long term view is $10-15 by 2013/14 - another FMG, then get out as it will pull back.

Unless there is significant dilution when funding partner is found.

Hi LRG

THanks for your foresightness comments.

Could you please provide some meat on your commentary how you SDL equated to FMG and the predictive value ? It is important also to disclose your interest on holding (Yes I do hold FMG and SDL)

Otherwise please give me six numbers commencing from 1 to 45

Seriously friend as I have noticed earlier the modertors flaked people for similar evaluation without any sound basis.My

Regards

 

[sw3]

So I found this article this morning and thought it wa relevant to SDL's operations in Cameroon. I note they say Rio is looking at northern Congo (near the border with Cameroon perhaps?).

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25585018-5005200,00.html

 

[quinn123]

Just thought I would post the possible reason for today’s increase in share price and volume.

Taken from BHP forum

Kennas:
Press release

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton announce West Australian Iron Ore Production Joint Venture
5 June 2009

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton today signed a non-binding agreement to establish a production joint venture covering the entirety of both companies’ Western Australian iron ore assets. The joint venture will encompass all current and future Western Australian iron ore assets and liabilities and will be owned 50:50 by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

The joint venture is expected to unlock significant value from the companies’ overlapping, world-class resources. Both companies believe the net present value of these unique production and development synergies will be in excess of US$10 billion (100 per cent basis). These substantial synergies are anticipated to come from:

• Combining adjacent mines into single operations;
• Reducing costs through shorter rail hauls and more efficient allocations of port capacity;
• Blending opportunities which will maximise product recovery and provide further operating efficiencies;
• Optimising future growth opportunities through the development of consolidated, larger and more capital efficient expansion projects;
• Combining the management, procurement and general overhead activities into a single entity.
Bad news for the juniors maybe. Or, maybe not.

Absolutely:
Gotta be good for juniors. Chinese will want to invest in startups to create new competition ASAP.

I hope anyway.

Do you think this is good news for SDL?

 

[Lucky_Country]

I would say this deal gives SDL the upper hand in any JV deal that maybe on the cards.

WA IO is world class resourses and the Chinese or any other interested party will now have to develop their own and SDL is a company that owns some world class ground.

 

[LRG]

So as a comparison FMG went from around 8 cents in July-Sep 2005 up to a high over $12 in June-Jul 2008 then dropped like a school case to $2 in Dec/Jan 2008 early 09. Note the high was just before or just at commencement of production.

SDL has I belive a better ratio of Share No.'s to estimated IO Qty's (unless there is significant dilution when a funding partner is found). Remember funding partner is due by end of this month according to the presentations???

So, the precedent is there 8c to $12 in 3 years.

My calcs are $10-15 by 2013/14 - I may be wrong or right - but it is possible and it could be more or less - obviously.

What does it matter how many I have? Lots in mu mind, in someone elses maybe little? Evertime i get spare cah I buy more. Wish they hadn't moved so quickly from 7c to 15c in the last few months (can only get half as many with same $'s.

IMO SDL holders are sitting on a gold mine - be patient - the deal will come off - I doubt by end of month, but likely by end of year. I predict this will create a jump in SP to around $1, then there should we whipsawing as the infrastructure is built - but in an upward trend. If it hits $10 just before actual first shipment, I will sell most off, cause like FMG it may have a significant pull back at that point. But until we get there, gauge the economy etc - can't really predict that replication of FMG.

PS hope i am correct - only history will tell, i don't have a crystal ball.

 

[CarbonSteel]

SDL has I belive a better ratio of Share No.'s to estimated IO Qty's (unless there is significant dilution when a funding partner is found). Remember funding partner is due by end of this month according to the presentations???

Quarterly Report given April '09 says...

"Discussions are continuing with selected international parties......Work will continue to focus on these discussions in the June 2009 quarter."

Nowhere does it say, nor is the implication given, that an announcement (regarding a funding partner) will be made by the end of June. Indeed, the Chairman states that funds raised recently will help the company further progress development into 2010.

I seem to recall George Jones being quoted somewhere as being "very confident" of making an announcement "mid-year". However, this is not a promise or committment and he can't be held to it as far as I'm aware.

Todays Rio/BHP deal could benefit us if end-users don't want to be subjected to oligopoly market conditions. The BIG THREE (if you include Vale) have now become the BIG PRICE-DETERMINING TWO.

I won't argue with your SP forecasts, I just hope your are on the money!

 

[happytown]

So as a comparison FMG went from around 8 cents in July-Sep 2005 up to a high over $12 in June-Jul 2008 then dropped like a school case to $2 in Dec/Jan 2008 early 09. Note the high was just before or just at commencement of production.

...

So, the precedent is there 8c to $12 in 3 years.

...

notwithstanding your valuation, some other things that occured during those 3 years

a roaring bull market,
a phenomenal resources boom, and
ever-increasing and historically high fe prices

cheers

 

[Pythagerous]

Here are some patterns between high trade days prior to announcements:

Today - 85,044,553

7th May - 76,908,220
7th May - Trading Halt issued at 5pm pending resource Ann.

30th April - 86,495,671
30th April - Quaterly Report issued at 2.40pm

6th April - 152,699,882
7th April - Nabeba Exploration Target Increased

In the past year, this is the 4th highest trading day on record.

Can you smell what the rock is cooking!!!

 

[fureien]

the other beauty is, there is so much support. so many buyers want in now lol. its turning into another CVN style stock.


..actually i just had a look at SDL's chart, 15 cents seems to be a resistance point. not a bad time to buy in with all this support and volume

its falsely broken nearly 4 times. combine everything together, and we might see some spectacular sp movements tuesday. that is hoping that day traders aren't stupid enuf to try and take profits so early on. im so glad i held SDL, just wish i bought more.

 

[CarbonSteel]

notwithstanding your valuation, some other things that occured during those 3 years

a roaring bull market,
a phenomenal resources boom, and
ever-increasing and historically high fe prices

cheers

... and there is no evidence to suggest that there will not be another roaring bull market to surpass the last one, or another resources boom to surpass the last one, or that Fe prices will not recover and soar past the last highs. Conversely, the antipathy is also possible.

 

[fureien]

quite correct. it might not happen immediately, but i believe a boom will be inevitable again. basic economics.

plus resources can only get scarcer not more abundant, which would only drive prices up. (and yes i know we arent talking about oil)

 

[Pythagerous]

There appears to be some heavy accumulation, with strong support at the 17.5c mark, on the back of last weeks BHP/RIO news.

 

[jay2000]

So as a comparison FMG went from around 8 cents in July-Sep 2005 up to a high over $12 in June-Jul 2008 then dropped like a school case to $2 in Dec/Jan 2008 early 09. Note the high was just before or just at commencement of production.

SDL has I belive a better ratio of Share No.'s to estimated IO Qty's (unless there is significant dilution when a funding partner is found). Remember funding partner is due by end of this month according to the presentations???

So, the precedent is there 8c to $12 in 3 years.

My calcs are $10-15 by 2013/14 - I may be wrong or right - but it is possible and it could be more or less - obviously.

What does it matter how many I have? Lots in mu mind, in someone elses maybe little? Evertime i get spare cah I buy more. Wish they hadn't moved so quickly from 7c to 15c in the last few months (can only get half as many with same $'s.

IMO SDL holders are sitting on a gold mine - be patient - the deal will come off - I doubt by end of month, but likely by end of year. I predict this will create a jump in SP to around $1, then there should we whipsawing as the infrastructure is built - but in an upward trend. If it hits $10 just before actual first shipment, I will sell most off, cause like FMG it may have a significant pull back at that point. But until we get there, gauge the economy etc - can't really predict that replication of FMG.

PS hope i am correct - only history will tell, i don't have a crystal ball.

Remember Fortescue had a 10 for 1 split so that would have made their SP over $120.00 for original share holders in June, July 2008. At todays price over $40.00 but would also agree with your prediction!

 

[Bigben101]

The recent comparison of SDL to FMG IMO, is but a faint dream. This is for a number of reasons outlined below.

1) FMG has 4.5 Billion tonnes of DSO. (60% fe)
2) It's in the heart of the pillbara.
3) It was up until last year going to produce 160 MT Per year.

SDL on the other hand has a number of disadvantages:

1) It's in Africa, a higher perceived risk.
2) It has 2.5 billion tonnes, where only 500 MT is DSO.
3) It may end up with only a 50% stake in CamIron after the financing deal.
4) It's only going to do produce 35 MT a year, with the potential to produce 50MT per year.

I am hoping that SDL will reach xxxxxx, and do agree that SDL is a gold mine. Lets hope this financing deal gets done already.

 

[talktome]

Very true Bigben101,

There's promise for more resources though. I think.... Some posters believe the resource size could increase 3-5 times by the looks of things on those geology maps.

I'm hoping SDL gets to xxxxx or so but there are many factors that need to come into play to get to that price - resource increase is merely one of them.

Any thoughts out there.....

talktome

 

[prawn_86]

To all the new members on this thread:

If you are going to post price targets, they must be realistic and supported by some form of analysis, not 'hope'.

Detailed fundamentals or technicals are needed if you are suggesting prices many times that of the current price.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[Singapore_Sling]

Iron Project 150 km from Mbalam / African Aura

http://www.african-aura.com/s/NewsR...r-Encouraging-Results-from-Nkout-Iron-Project

I find it quite positive to see that more and more articels report about the Mbalam/SDL Project and the need for a transport system.
Shared interests = shared costs???

"Furthermore, all these areas are located close to the potential rail route between the 2.4 billion tonne Mbalam iron deposit to the southeast, and the proposed deep water port at Kribi on the Atlantic coast."

"The sub-region hosts a number of significant iron deposits which are currently under exploration and development including the 2.4 billion tonne Mbalam deposit which is under development by Sundance Resources Limited and located approximately 150km southeast of Nkout. "

 

[jonojpsg]

To all the new members on this thread:

If you are going to post price targets, they must be realistic and supported by some form of analysis, not 'hope'.

Detailed fundamentals or technicals are needed if you are suggesting prices many times that of the current price.

Thanks

Prawn

I'm assuming since my last post asking the question whether $x is a price target was deleted that $x is regarded as a price target and that we should justify our target of $x as being made up of $y revenue generated from z Mt pa production at $q per tonne cash cost and $r overheads