SDL - Sundance Resources

[Pythagerous]

Announcement has been made, and the stock opened at 13.5c

Interesting to see what happens with the share price today.

 

[RP_Automotive]

IMo this is yet another example of how the Sundance management are working extremely well, always moving in the right direction and 'ticking the boxes' for the shareholder. I really look forward to the years to come...and I'll see the rest of you faithful shareholders on the beach in the Bahamas in a few years.

 

[prawn_86]

IMo this is yet another example of how the Sundance management are working extremely well, always moving in the right direction and 'ticking the boxes' for the shareholder. I really look forward to the years to come...and I'll see the rest of you faithful shareholders on the beach in the Bahamas in a few years.

I think this company will reward it's long term shareholders very well in the future.
I just hope you are right RP_Automotive I would love to retire at a young age.

Guys,

If you have a read of the site guidelines, you will see that you MUST provide details/evidence of why you think the share price will do well. Simply saying so will not suffice and your posts will be removed in the future.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[Jewels]

Back down to 13.5 cents at close today. I think that short of any major announcements we are likely to see the share price decline over the comming weeks, the question is will we see sub 9 cents again?
Okay experts, what's your guess? I need to buy some more what price do you think I will be able to get them at?

 

[CarbonSteel]

Back down to 13.5 cents at close today. I think that short of any major announcements we are likely to see the share price decline over the comming weeks, the question is will we see sub 9 cents again?

My view is that it should not be forgotten that the drop to 13.5 cents is possibly related to market sentiment today, rather than investors punishing SDL for whatever reason. XMJ down 6.5% today. That's a large one-day fall. Maybe it is just SDL following the market in general?

 

[The Muffin Man]

If announcements dry up and some of the attention moves away from Sundance, I think we could see a gradual retrace. This isn't all bad news though, as it will provide further buying opportunities.

I also think Carbon Steel's assessment of today's heavy drop is spot on, it was based around general market sentiment.

 

[DowJones]

My view is that it should not be forgotten that the drop to 13.5 cents is possibly related to market sentiment today, rather than investors punishing SDL for whatever reason. XMJ down 6.5% today. That's a large one-day fall. Maybe it is just SDL following the market in general?

Sundance has had a torrid run lately from 7.x cents to 15.5 cents recently. People are sitting on profits and want to lock it in, include those that participated in the Share Purchase Plan at 8 cents. It was a carnage in the market today to say the least, unnerving investors.

The stock price has shown to respond to news then recede later on as if it never occurred. It suffers from a ebb and flow effect which I feel some people range trading it.

I believe it is best to think of Sundance as a long term stock.

As Buffet says - the market is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

 

[CarbonSteel]

As Buffet says - the market is a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

I haven't read this particular Buffet quote before, and although it looks and sounds like a simplistic way to describe this phenomenon, I think it is very accurate.

 

[CarbonSteel]

From "Seeking Alpha" Website

The Baltic Dry Index is setting new highs for the year. This measure of freight shipping costs has often been used as an early indicator in the economy. Because of the global nature of shipping, this index may give a broad take on global economic health but is a less reliable indicator of any specific nation’s economy, particularly a service economy like the U.S. It is thought that much of the rebound in the index is related to Chinese demand for iron ore, and has less direct bearing on our markets.

Go here to read the full article....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/137819-baltic-dry-index-signals-commodity-inflation

 

[fureien]

shareprice dipped to 0.11 today
its a bit unnerving cause i already suffered a 40% loss on BBI>< i hope sdl doesnt follow cause i actually planned to hold long term with this one

 

[Singapore_Sling]

* China to receive 200,000 barrels per day of oil
* Petrobras needs funds to develop costly sub-sea reserves
* Similar deal previously signed between China and Russia

BEIJING, May 19 (Reuters) - China agreed to lend $10 billion to Brazil's Petrobras (PETR4.SA)(PBR.N) in return for guaranteed oil supply over the next decade, in a deal cemented on Tuesday as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ended a state visit.

--------------

I know, not really related to SDL - but I love these news...keeps me dreaming of better days to come...

 

[The Muffin Man]

Hi all. I just wanted to make the comment that it is encouraging to see the share price hold comfortably above 10c after the run to 14c. I expected a retrace, but to be honest it's holding better than I thought, which is even more positive considering the low volume of shares traded in the past few weeks. I would have thought that the lower volume traded would have meant sellers pushing down the price further, but so far this hasn't occured. The next week or two will be interesting to see whether the 11.5-12c mark stays in tact.

 

[fureien]

yeh you're right. several times i considered selling out at 13 cents which has been the resistance the past few days and trading it back in at 10.5
but i decided to hold and its held out well. definitely a long term hold for me

 

[talktome]

Subject - Future Dividend

I know the topic of this thread may not be addressed for quite some time to come, but has anybody come across any talk of a future dividend? I haven't been able to find anything to insinuate that.

The reason I ask is that a dividend would be highly attractive to investors as opposed to just share price growth. I know I would want that and am sure that others would too.

It makes good investment sense as an investor to invest in a company that will share its future earnings instead of just capital appreciation of its share price.

Any thoughts among the wiser heads amongst us?

talktome

PS. Before someone jumps the gun here, please note that I am well aware what a dividend is and that SDL will probably not be in the position to offer some of its earnings untill years after the first shipment.

 

[prawn_86]

PS. Before someone jumps the gun here, please note that I am well aware what a dividend is and that SDL will probably not be in the position to offer some of its earnings untill years after the first shipment.

So why ask if you know its impossible to predict Depends on the resource, the costs, the IO price etc etc etc

 

[jonojpsg]

So why ask if you know its impossible to predict Depends on the resource, the costs, the IO price etc etc etc

Don't be silly Prawn, I've got a contact on the inside who assures me that a 20c a share dividend will be paid as of 2010/11

 

[Singapore_Sling]

Hello,

I am definetly not among the "wiser heads" here, but I know how to use the internet - and am a kind person in general; therefore one can find the results of my quick&dirty websearch. We can't predict, but at least we can check what their competitors payout...

Annual dividends 2008 of the companies that are mentioned in the Sundance PPT, Slide 8 (Latests Presentation under http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/ )

Rio Tinto 136 US Cent
Anglo 80 US Cent
MMX 0 US Cent
Vale 68 US Cent
BHP Billiton 70 US

 

[stocksontheblock]

Hi all, I have quite a few shares in SDL, thinking that in 3 to 5 yrs they will be worth a fortune, ha! Yet I wanted to ask, and it might have been addressed somewhere way back in this thread, yet does SDL have the resources, and hopefully soon the means, to be a BIG company?

I am thinking of stocks like FMG, traded at next to nothing for years then hit the big time with big stock prices, does it look like SDL has the same potential? I think it does from the little research I have done, yet then again I am wondering if they ever get to $1 bail out and take a lot of money and run, or do you think that these guys will be in the $5 to $8 range?

Thanks

 

[fureien]

thats hard to say at this early stage in the game stocksontheblock
it all depends on business of course. ive seen alot of similar companys still below $1

but then again SDL looks great, prob can hit $1 easily. but ud have to wait a coupla years at least.
i mean if it was that certain u will 10X ur money in 3-5 years. id sell my house, car and my sister and invest it in sdl nahwatimsayin?

The reason I ask is that a dividend would be highly attractive to investors as opposed to just share price growth. I know I would want that and am sure that others would too.

in regards to the dividend question. this is actually a highly academically debated issue, regarding dividends, basically some argue that paying out dividends is good as opposed to capital growth. i wont go into detail, but in regards to capital growth. if you take companies liek microsoft. they didnt pay dividends for ages, and SHers had faith in them and relied on capital growth, and the company did very well cause no dividends means more money to use.

but take companies like telstra, who pay huge dividends, the sp is low and the company is a mess.


that being said theres of course the issue of, having too much money in the bank for the directors to play with to the extent to which they dont spend it wisely. as opposed to having limited cash where they have to carefully decide how to spend it

 

[Pythagerous]

G'day Sundancers

I am a bit out of my depth here, but I thought I would have a go at trying to do some analysis and financial forecasting based on the figures that Sundance have reported, in order to try and work out what sums potential Chinese Investors might be crunching.


CAPEX

Back in 2008, SDL reported that CAPEX was going to be US$3,277m. This was made up of:

$375m - Mining & Plant
$1,423 - Rail
$529m - Port
$442 - Indirects
$508 - Contingency

This was reported back in January 2008, so surely there would be some changes from the amounts reported back then. It has been suggested that the CAPEX is going to be lower then what was originally reported, due to cost sharing. Can anyone provide any evidence about the CAPEX being lower, and what reductions there may be?



OPEX

The latest presentation States that the latest FOB price (60%) is $US63.83/t and the estimated production cost was $US19.65 per tonne, so the operating margin would be $44.18/t

FOB Price: US$63.83/t
Production Cost: US$19.65/t
Operation Margin: US$44.18/t

These are estimated figures from 2008. Does anyone have an idea whether production costs are likely to be up or down on these figures, and whether the FOB price is likely to be up or down?



RESOURCE

The latest presentation suggest the following:

- Prodcution of 35 - 50 tonnes
- A total of 2540MT (215@60% and 2,325@38%)
- A minimum mine life of 20 years.

Is anyone able to confirm whether the maximum production rate will be 50 tonnes per year, or could it be higher. Also, is 2540MT the maximum, or does SDL have the potential to have a lot more then that.

Just a quick point, if you divide 2540MT by 50MTPA, that equates to over 50 years. If you divide 2540 by 20 years, that gives you 127MTPA.

Looking a bit deeper, if we assume they produce 50MTPA at an operating margin of $44.18, in their first year of operation, they are going to recoup $2,209m of their projected CAPEX which is $3,277m, which is nealry 70% of the CAPEX.

If we look at the $44.18pt operating margin against the 2540mt that have got, that is total of $112Billion, which makes the $3.2B look like Chicken Feed.



As i said before, I am a bit out of my depth, so if anyone is able to confirm, correct or add too any of my workings, it would be much appreciated.