AAR - Astral Resources

[chimp]

But Hengseng, I appreciate the analysis you have done re AAR and the faith in it is even more inspiring. On the other hand, does 2-3 years refer to the time it takes to develop into a sizeable mining company?

I'm concerned that the conservative style of AAR will be very hard to get the attention of investment banks hence difficult to get finance. If purely relying on the cash flow generated by its current operation, then the waiting period is going to be very long.

Comments?

 

[alankew]

Sorry to be off thread but couldnt resist it,Chimp are you related to Old Monkey by any chance

 

[chimp]

hahahah, old monkey clearly has been living on the earth much longer than we Chimps! But we are all dear friends to you humans!

 

[hangseng]

But Hengseng, I appreciate the analysis you have done re AAR and the faith in it is even more inspiring. On the other hand, does 2-3 years refer to the time it takes to develop into a sizeable mining company?

I'm concerned that the conservative style of AAR will be very hard to get the attention of investment banks hence difficult to get finance. If purely relying on the cash flow generated by its current operation, then the waiting period is going to be very long.

Comments?

The very conservative and controlled manner this company goes about their business will prove to be an asset when they seek financial backing.

Also as I pointed out they will have the potential of internal growth without the added risk of hedging, cap raisings or finance for early development. This will minimise the funding required and make them an even more attractive investment proposition. Make no mistake, investment bankers like to loan funds but to do so with minimal leverage and decreased risk is the favoured form of investment. Where did I learn this? From none other than one of the most respected high profile company directors in WA who was once the head of business investment banking with the ANZ and thereafter out on his own. He taught me well about financing some years ago (when I was busy making mistakes as a brash young man ). The biggest lesson of which was companies and individuals with cash, no debt and excellent prospects are the most attractive investment prospect of all to financiers and other investors.

What does AAR have? cash, no debt and excellent and improving prospects. It also has company directors buying shares regularly and recently.

For me, AAR has progressively become a positive long term investment decision of which risk is lowering. By the time they are set and the market wakes up I will have already accumulated my long term position.

edit: sorry chimp I didn't answer your question fully.

2-3 years would be quite normal, I have been involved with some that have taken longer and others shorter.
The stages once the resource is identified are PFS > DFS/BFS (dependent of financing) > Construction > Commissioning > Operation with the last two being almost simultaneous aspects.

 

[Old monkey]

The very conservative and controlled manner this company goes about their business will prove to be an asset when they seek financial backing.

Also as I pointed out they will have the potential of internal growth without the added risk of hedging, cap raisings or finance for early development. This will minimise the funding required and make them an even more attractive investment proposition. Make no mistake, investment bankers like to loan funds but to do so with minimal leverage and decreased risk is the favoured form of investment. Where did I learn this? From none other than one of the most respected high profile company directors in WA who was once the head of business investment banking with the ANZ and thereafter out on his own. He taught me well about financing some years ago (when I was busy making mistakes as a brash young man ). The biggest lesson of which was companies and individuals with cash, no debt and excellent prospects are the most attractive investment prospect of all to financiers and other investors.

What does AAR have? cash, no debt and excellent and improving prospects. It also has company directors buying shares regularly and recently.

For me, AAR has progressively become a positive long term investment decision of which risk is lowering. By the time they are set and the market wakes up I will have already accumulated my long term position.

edit: sorry chimp I didn't answer your question fully.

2-3 years would be quite normal, I have been involved with some that have taken longer and others shorter.
The stages once the resource is identified are PFS > DFS/BFS (dependent of financing) > Construction > Commissioning > Operation with the last two being almost simultaneous aspects.

I do agree that being conservative and going about the business is a virtue. But this is not the real world. Take when you first started in this working world you have to show what you have to your prospective employer. Being quietly going about your business and no one will bother with you. Think of it this way, at the moment the demand comes from China and India for the minerals. With the rising prices and recessionary environment the US may not be able to buy as much as they would have liked from China or India. What would happen at the same time that China may start exploring their vast regions in the West, Sinkiang, Tibet or Mongolia for the minerals that they need. This would save them alot of foreign exchange and it would be cheaper to produce closer to home. They therefore would not have to encounter the likes of BHP or Rio Tinto. So the demand most likely will be lower for Australian minerals. And when AAR decides to wake up and start crowing about their mines. It will be too late. If I think I know the Chinese well they are most likely already have contemplated this plan. They have a knack of conserving their foreign reserves.

Therefore I don't think we should be placid with AAR and let them run the slow coach journey. Someone should point out (or us on this thread) to them that there maybe a nasty drop in demand for their products when it is time for them to mine it. In my opinion what they need now is to find a opposite partner by talking to the Chinese who are willing to be like a mentor to sound out what the Chinese are doing and what is the value that the Chinese are placing on their mine. This is what happened to MTN. Through the 2006 there was one of these und company putting several take over offers to MTN
but all the time MTN kept spunning them off as the offer is not enough. But in the mean time the sp of MTN kept climbing. And investor started to pile in.
We shareholders like to feel that our shares are wanted and in demand. DONTYOU THINK SO?
cheers

 

[hangseng]

Old Monkey, I am a patient man. I will leave the lobbying to you.

Interest in AAR again today I see. I also noticed a very small parcel of 20k shares sold down into close when the sp was being bought up. Why do that when obviously all you have to do is sit and you would be taken out, hhhhmmmm?

May be nothing, but I saw exactly the same activity last year with AAR as the sp rose from ~5c through to about 7c then it just ran hard. Not stating it will occur again, just a observation. Either a very inexperienced trader, or quite a deliberate ploy to keep the VWAP down IMO.

 

[Old monkey]

Old Monkey, I am a patient man. I will leave the lobbying to you.

Interest in AAR again today I see. I also noticed a very small parcel of 20k shares sold down into close when the sp was being bought up. Why do that when obviously all you have to do is sit and you would be taken out, hhhhmmmm?

May be nothing, but I saw exactly the same activity last year with AAR as the sp rose from ~5c through to about 7c then it just ran hard. Not stating it will occur again, just a observation. Either a very inexperienced trader, or quite a deliberate ploy to keep the VWAP down IMO.

Hang Seng,
Please let me have the contact details, telephne number, fax , e-mail and the person who is able and willing to answer questions in AAR. I will lobby them direct.

cheers

 

[hangseng]

Hang Seng,
Please let me have the contact details, telephne number, fax , e-mail and the person who is able and willing to answer questions in AAR. I will lobby them direct.

cheers

Depending on the questions you have I would suggest any of the following could assist you.

http://www.anglo.com.au/contact.asp

Directors
John Load Cecil Jones (Chairman)

Denis Edmund Clarke
Christopher Hugh Fyson
Angus Claymore Pilmer

General Manager - Exploration
Peter Komyshan
pkomyshan@anglo.com.au


Company Secretary
Angus Claymore Pilmer
angus@acpco.com.au


Operations Office
Level 1, 46 Ord Street
West Perth WA 6005
Telephone (08) 9322 5811
Facsimile (08) 9322 5301

Registered Office
C/- A C Pilmer & Co
150 Hay Street
Subiaco WA 6006
Telephone (08) 9388 9545
Facsimile (08) 9388 9546

 

[Old monkey]

Well, I have e-mail Angus Pilmer my concerns. Waiting for reply. Will let you guys know once there is a reply.

cheers

 

[TheAbyss]

Hope you included a telephone number OM. Angus is not big on email.

Might pay to place a call rather than email.

 

[adobee]

the time it takes these guys to do anything you might need John Edwards to get intouch with them..

 

[adobee]

I note on the website the broker reports link to fat prophets

"We met recently with the two executives of Anglo Australian Resources in our Sydney office, Angus Pilmer and Peter Komyshan. What impresses us about the company is the very achievable growth path that AAR has in place and the fact the company is very modestly valued. We believe the upside is enormous and it should certainly be on the radar screen of those Members wanting base metal exposure. "

"From our meeting with AAR management, they expect the Mandilla Project to generate $8 - $10 million in net cash after all costs this year. AAR management intends to spend these funds wisely. AAR will apply its earnings towards appraisal work on its second project, its flagship Koongie Park base metal project in Western Australia. While the project has been around a long time, we believe its prospects for development are now better than ever."

This was in February 2007, could the boys not jump back on a plane to Sydney give the guys at Fats a call shoot down to Makavelli shout some lunch and give them a quick update on where the project is up to, whats changed since there last meeting, that the 8-10 mill came to fruition how they have been spending it and what the expect in the next 12 months ..

 

[Piggy Bank]

Well, I have e-mail Angus Pilmer my concerns. Waiting for reply. Will let you guys know once there is a reply.

cheers

Hey Old[er] Monkey,

Any update or reply from Angus Pilmer? It appears he is slow to reply to shareholder concerns as well.

Maybe you should try calling him to see if he is still alive? We don't want to hear one of those sad stories of neighbours reporting a foul stench and then authorities finding a decayed corpse.

I think this company has significant future upside and resources. I have invested a significant amount in AAR over the last 6 months and will be patient medium to long term holder. Although, it would be nice to have some good PR to support their underlying value!?

 

[rub92me]

I don't think it is AAR management's job to provide a hole by hole account of their progress. Why are people suggesting AAR is not moving fast enough? As Hangseng has stated, the process to develop a mine is a lengthy one. There's plenty of nearology penny hopefuls around with weekly updates and pie in the sky predictions. You get what you pay for.

 

[SGB]

I don't think it is AAR management's job to provide a hole by hole account of their progress. Why are people suggesting AAR is not moving fast enough? As Hangseng has stated, the process to develop a mine is a lengthy one. There's plenty of nearology penny hopefuls around with weekly updates and pie in the sky predictions. You get what you pay for.

And just to add to that rub,

there are some out there dumping their penny losers for tax reasons, perfect time to do.

SGB

 

[hangseng]

I don't think it is AAR management's job to provide a hole by hole account of their progress. Why are people suggesting AAR is not moving fast enough? As Hangseng has stated, the process to develop a mine is a lengthy one. There's plenty of nearology penny hopefuls around with weekly updates and pie in the sky predictions. You get what you pay for.

Very well said rub92me!

This is a common quotation, however it remains relevant today and in particular with AAR about the psychology of the market.

"Transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient"

 

[Old monkey]

Hey Old[er] Monkey,

Any update or reply from Angus Pilmer? It appears he is slow to reply to shareholder concerns as well.

Maybe you should try calling him to see if he is still alive? We don't want to hear one of those sad stories of neighbours reporting a foul stench and then authorities finding a decayed corpse.

I think this company has significant future upside and resources. I have invested a significant amount in AAR over the last 6 months and will be patient medium to long term holder. Although, it would be nice to have some good PR to support their underlying value!?

Hello Piggy, I have e-mailed Angus. Since AAR is such a slow coach I thought I had better let him absorb the contents of my e-mail which is quite a lengthy one. I figure by now he must have read it but do not have time to think on how to react to it. So I will allow for a few more days then I will call him up sometime next week. In the mean time if there is anyone out there who has any more idea to take this company to the next level as far as SP is concerned please respond and share your ideas.

 

[Old monkey]

I don't think it is AAR management's job to provide a hole by hole account of their progress. Why are people suggesting AAR is not moving fast enough? As Hangseng has stated, the process to develop a mine is a lengthy one. There's plenty of nearology penny hopefuls around with weekly updates and pie in the sky predictions. You get what you pay for.

The reason that we are saying that AAR is not moving fast enough is this: AAR has been around for 25 years and its share price is only around 5cts. The average time I think for a miner to become a medium company from scratch is about 15 years imo. By the looks of things AAR is going to take 10 years to even get to 2 digits in cts. Take a look at 5 cts. In order to get to 50 cts it has to be multiply by 10 times. If the history of AAR is anything to go by it is caught in a rut of up and down in a narrow band of 5 to 6 cts. Every time it goes up the sellers would come out. If it is going to thread water like that I am at a lost to know when would it even go up to 20cts let alone the the hopeful $1 which will be an insurmountable hurdle not withstanding the is a hugh amount of reserves under ground.

 

[rub92me]

The reason that we are saying that AAR is not moving fast enough is this: AAR has been around for 25 years and its share price is only around 5cts. The average time I think for a miner to become a medium company from scratch is about 15 years imo. By the looks of things AAR is going to take 10 years to even get to 2 digits in cts. Take a look at 5 cts. In order to get to 50 cts it has to be multiply by 10 times. If the history of AAR is anything to go by it is caught in a rut of up and down in a narrow band of 5 to 6 cts. Every time it goes up the sellers would come out. If it is going to thread water like that I am at a lost to know when would it even go up to 20cts let alone the the hopeful $1 which will be an insurmountable hurdle not withstanding the is a hugh amount of reserves under ground.

A few other thoughts to consider would be:
1) How many small companies in the mining business are still around after 25 years? I bet you a dollar it's less than 5%. What does that tell you about how this company is managed?
2) How many small companies in the mining business have achieved 10-20x shareprice appreciation in a couple of years. I bet you another dollar that it's less than 0.03%.
3) How long have they actually worked on the main projects that are in their pipeline now? I bet you a third dollar that it's less than 25 years.
4) What progress have they made in the past 2-3 years? I'd say about as good as you can expect without going into significant debt or shareprice dilution.

 

[SGB]

The reason that we are saying that AAR is not moving fast enough is this: AAR has been around for 25 years and its share price is only around 5cts. The average time I think for a miner to become a medium company from scratch is about 15 years imo. By the looks of things AAR is going to take 10 years to even get to 2 digits in cts. Take a look at 5 cts. In order to get to 50 cts it has to be multiply by 10 times. If the history of AAR is anything to go by it is caught in a rut of up and down in a narrow band of 5 to 6 cts. Every time it goes up the sellers would come out. If it is going to thread water like that I am at a lost to know when would it even go up to 20cts let alone the the hopeful $1 which will be an insurmountable hurdle not withstanding the is a hugh amount of reserves under ground.

Dear OM

Your missing one of the main ingredience to trading/investing:
Patience.

My mandarin tree has just given our family its full bloom this year and they are delicious.
Its been in the making for over 6 years.. it was worth the wait,watering,pruning,feeding.

SGB