AAR - Astral Resources

[spottygoose]

Hangseng - thank you for the great research you share with this forum, you are one of the best posters here. Reichman - sugar coat your request all you like but I think to most you have just come across as ill-mannered and egotistical.

 

[hangseng]

Hangseng - thank you for the great research you share with this forum, you are one of the best posters here. Reichman - sugar coat your request all you like but I think to most you have just come across as ill-mannered and egotistical.

My pleasure, however i twould be far more productive for us all to focus on what we have here. In case it has been missed, Anglo Australian Resources is about to make a lot of people quite well off.

AAR has tested patience I would be the first to admit and along with this people can easily get a little heated. Refocus on why you decided to buy into AAR. This company may be disappointing traders at present, however as an investor in this company I can assure you I am not disappointed, nor heated.

 

[JTLP]

Hi guys,

Long time reader of the AAR thread...but I don't hold.

Hang Seng, what do you see as the possible catalyst for AAR to the valuation you have put forward? Will the company release figures or anything of the like? Is there an important ann. coming?

Your figures look good, do they take into acct costs etc?

I'd be happy to buy in and see 1/2 of your figure!

Thanks for the research

JTLP

 

[ans25]

The question is how much longer do we wait.... that is the true question, how long do you think seng?

 

[hangseng]

The table SP valuation indicates 10% of indicated resource of KP only. The reasoning for only accounting for 10% is that all costs are accounted for (mining, processing, transport, fuel, maintenance etc). It is also an assumption, which is needed to be conservative when basing an investment decision on a speculative stock.

The resource account is not mine, it is as reported by the company. I have merely tabulated into viewable form as per current base metal prices and company supplied information. I believe I have assumed conservatively with future potential. Please someone with an alternate view or estimate/assumptions post otherwise, I welcome it.

Please do not take this as gospel. As I stated it is my view and one of the reasons I have invested in AAR. You need to assess the risks yourself and your own goals/expectations. I have a medium to long term view.

Is AAR a certainty? No nothing in life is, as I have again learnt recently in regard to health. Now there is an investment the younger of you should be focussing on, your health. Life is very short. The battle continues, but I am winning the war

 

[Scuba]

***edited***
I have assumed an AUD/USD rate of $0.90.
***edited***

Hiya hangseng, just logged on and read everything from #817 inclusive and noticed this in #818...
USD____$1,245,540,603
AUD____$1,132,309,639
Have you multiplied by point 9 rather than divided?

Just my traveller's mind coming into play....
Regards,
Scuba

 

[hangseng]

Hiya hangseng, just logged on and read everything from #817 inclusive and noticed this in #818...
USD____$1,245,540,603
AUD____$1,132,309,639
Have you multiplied by point 9 rather than divided?

Just my traveller's mind coming into play....
Regards,
Scuba

Very good Scuba, good to someone actually reads it apart from the estimated IGR value per share. Yes I used a / instead of * which when corrected obviously gives you a few more travellers$$$, like 130m of them (sorry too used to going the other way and getting less for my Aus$ ).

 

[hangseng]

Now let me utilise a little poetic license and include an estimate for the extension into Atlantis. I have been eluding to the value of this for some time as the Zn grades are already indicated over 18% with 12% the lowest grade assayed. You begin to see why I find AAR so exciting when you look at Koongie Park in isolation and then add in Mandilla and the Victoria River Downs project (even if AAR only had 40% of VRD in a JV, VRD being a 50-100Mt project of high grade Copper and Zinc). The mind boggles really.

Entertain me for a moment and ponder what you have here. I have used the lowest Zn value for Atlantis and only used a 1Mt resource (it could be double that). The other grades I have simply used the values of Santiego and Onedin, except for Cu which I used the original lower KP value.

I have also amended the Zn value for the Indicated resource of Koongie Park as my previous table excluded the transition zone, I should have used the 5.2% not 4% value. So we have a few more travelers $ to spend

 

[hangseng]

Now let us dream for a while (this could be reality one day), I am a dreamer. I have added in Victoria River Downs and discounted the value by 50% to allow for a JV. I have merely transposed the Koongie Park values and increased the tonnage to the lower of the estimated 50-100Mt resource estimate of AAR.

 

[TheAbyss]

Great work Hangseng.

First step will be the 2 analysts reports this month followed by the KP PFS in July. Slow mover indeed however there is no doubt in my mind.

 

[hangseng]

Great work Hangseng.

First step will be the 2 analysts reports this month followed by the KP PFS in July. Slow mover indeed however there is no doubt in my mind.

Cheers, Abyss

Reichman actually did me a huge favour as it turns out. I have for so long simply placed AAR in the memory bank as a no brainer. Over the weekend I have pondered the numbers and then the recent upsurge in trading and directors buying.

I constantly come up with the same conclusion, AAR is definately a no brainer and the directors know it. Patience will be required obviously but I simply can't help feeling that we are coming closer to an announcement on KP between now and the annual report. Just thinking out aloud.

With the copper price outlook looking very bright and zinc almost certainly going to go back up due to short supply and world demand. AAR will be perfectly positioned to benefit from both KP and VRD.

Do yourself a favour and look at the McArthur River Zn mine in the NT and you will get an idea of the significant potential of VRD.

http://archive.xstrata.com/mim/www.mim.com.au/mcarthur.html
At a Glance
MIM 75% (MIM increased it's interest from 70% during 2002 financial year)
Total Identified Mineral Resources of 125 million tonnes at 12.9% zinc, 5.6% lead and 59 g/t silver; Ore Reserves of 40 million tonnes grading 12.6% zinc, 5.5% lead and 57 g/t silver (as at 30 June, 2002)

Underground mining - room and pillar
Produces high grade single product - mixed lead-zinc concentrate
Producing 370,000 tonnes a year mixed concentrate containing 173,000 tonnes zinc, 41,000 tonnes lead and 1.7 million ounces silver (as at 30 June, 2002)

A feasability study into producing zinc metal on site at McArthur River mine using MIMs Albion Process technology is underway
Achieved record production levels of 1.4Mt of ore treated. The introduction of bench mining, a bulk mining method contributed to the increased production

 

[alankew]

Hangseng you metioned a Fat Prophets report and elsewhere another meber has mentioned an analysts report,any idea when these are due out.Hoping to top up before.Thanks in advance

 

[Bluesky]

Now let us dream for a while (this could be reality one day), I am a dreamer. I have added in Victoria River Downs and discounted the value by 50% to allow for a JV. I have merely transposed the Koongie Park values and increased the tonnage to the lower of the estimated 50-100Mt resource estimate of AAR.

Ahh Hang Seng, i think i might use that table as my wallpaper.
I lost patience with this 3 times and sold out with a loss each time. Cant trade this one too well, investing long term now.

Love your work mate

 

[hangseng]

Have you ever wondered where all the excitement is? Here is a little nearology, to put into context that AAR have the location well sited. Also interesting to note VRD is closer to Darwin than MacArthur River.

 

[hangseng]

Hangseng you metioned a Fat Prophets report and elsewhere another meber has mentioned an analysts report,any idea when these are due out.Hoping to top up before.Thanks in advance

alankew, Fat Prophets indicated in last years report that AAR was a watch. They will put up another report when AAR announces the PFS, they already stated as much. You can bet that FP will already be in when this report comes out as they have already indicated very positively about AAR.

I wouldn't expect this report until the PFS is affirmed. At this time I am expecting FP to place a buy recommendation on AAR to FP members. You will know when this happens as AAR will be talk of the town, instead of my isolated occasional chat.

 

[Scuba]

Talk of the town

I hope us small folks get to top up before this happens...
Lurking, buying, lurking, buying...
:bandit:

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Hang Seng,

Sorry mate I've been a bit busy,

Like I said the 2nd year of netting a profit is sure to catch a few off guard, but not us hey? lol

I'm gonna wait to see company Koongie PFS as well as further work/guidance on Mandilla before I do an updated write up

Cheers

Hey guys,

Hang Seng nice work there mate, some really good info, I think its safe to say as we've always known production is a matter of when not if,

I realised that a few weeks months back and thus decided to break my holding up into 2 acc's one core bottom draw position which won't be touched, the other is a trading position ie buy dips sell the peaks,


I think in time AAR will turn out to be like JML is just a matter of time and thats why I will hold a core position, the fact that this year will also be a year of PROFIT because of the gold production only helps things along, if they can keep making profits from Mandilla while working on getting Koongie into production then we'll all be laughing all the way to the bank

 

[hangseng]

Hey Hang Seng,

Sorry mate I've been a bit busy,

Like I said the 2nd year of netting a profit is sure to catch a few off guard, but not us hey? lol

I'm gonna wait to see company Koongie PFS as well as further work/guidance on Mandilla before I do an updated write up

Cheers

No problem YT, all in good time. People will have to suffice with my ramblings in the meantime.

I am just a wee bit excited though

 

[enigmatic]

so are we expecting the next bit of good news soon or do you think it will come arround about july this year

 

[juw177]

I got in after seeing a volume bubble build up at 0.055. Today this has broken out on very high volume. Up 13% at the moment.

Next resistance point looks to be 7c.