XAO Technical Analysis

[Buffettology]

Re: XAO Analysis

WOW! They are predicting 3 recessions in 1! Is that a super recession?

I guess you would call it a "great depression", if all their recession predictions eventuated

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Does make sense.....

A question, does anyone think here there is anything in the following volumes to sellers and buyers?


WOW totals (Buyers 650) (Sellers 390) but the volumes units are about the same.

RIO totals (Buyers 1040) (Sellers 480) but the volumes units are about the same.

Similar for many others eg: BHP, CBA, NAB. there are twice the about of buyers as sellers for the same units and it has been like this for days!

My un-educated guess:
- The educated are unloading to the unsuspecting?
or
- The educated are buying small amonts adding to their holdings from panicking sellers.

Does it depend on which side of the tree you sit on for an answer?
comments:

I am not sure you can always read to much into the big caps depth it can be an indication and it can be manipulation, big buyers and sellers are loath to show their hand as others can take advantage.

Some time you can see the foot print in the course of sales on the size of the buy sells but in the end price is king.

 

[Buffettology]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some of the possible drivers of the US market which may affect the colour of our day.. or the way we squeeze our fresh brekky oranges...
Some stock reports attributing afternoon gains on stocks on the conference call from MBIA who does not see its rating in trouble and who actually offered AMBAC $5 bln in reinsurance.
Bad news from ratings agencies has been mostly ignored today in this stock rally with S&P reporting that a rise of a downgrade is at a two-year high and with Moody"s raising expectations of subprime losses to 14-18% earlier this morning from current actual losses of only 1.5%. Earlier today, Fitch downgraded US Auto ABS bonds and also reported that losses on Prime US auto ABS surged 60% in December on a year-over-year basis. The FDIC warned today that hundreds of thousands of foreclosures are looming and also noted today were a number of job layoff announcements.
S&P has cut FGIC ratings and put MBIA and XLCA on ratings watch negative. The move was announced only 8 minutes before the market close, fuelling the sharp fall in the stock market off the highs.

Some good analysis Kauri, thx.

 

[Buffettology]

Re: XAO Analysis

The "news", or more accurately rumours, I post are what is actually floating around the floors...

Absolutely the most important thing to me also. I have a live feed to the floor on Wall Street which I usually try to watch also at least for the opening hour or so to get the feeling for the day.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

When I read posts like this I get vision of a child with his hands over his ears repeating "I can't hear you, I can't hear you", which is fine as long as you keep your hands over your ears. However sooner or later you have to take them away and face reality.

All this talk of a market crash is truely mad. The market hasnt been this cheap in 18 years. The PE 's are below the long term average and if im not mistaken through out history sharemarket crashes occur when PEs are in their high 20's to 30's.

I assume your talking about forward PE's, which are practically useless around economic turning points. It's baffling why investors continue to put so much faith in forward earnings estimates of analysts. Just 6 months ago, S&P500 earnings growth was forecast at 10%+.Latest figures show about a -20% decline.

World markets seem to have fallen more than the US markets where all the problems are coming from. People should just get over it, so what if the US slows down. The 97 asian financial crisis had a bigger impact to Australia and yet we were able to pull through.

Again the false expectation that global markets should move in sync. Of course we'll pull through, we always do. However, the 97 asian financial crisis is going to pale in comparison to the unwinding of the largest credit bubble in history and thus its effects will be much deeper and long lasting.

 

[cordelia]

Re: XAO Analysis

Absolutely the most important thing to me also. I have a live feed to the floor on Wall Street which I usually try to watch also at least for the opening hour or so to get the feeling for the day.

how do you get live feed

 

[kengaikl]

Re: XAO Analysis

When I read posts like this I get vision of a child with his hands over his ears repeating "I can't hear you, I can't hear you", which is fine as long as you keep your hands over your ears. However sooner or later you have to take them away and face reality.



I assume your talking about forward PE's, which are practically useless around economic turning points. It's baffling why investors continue to put so much faith in forward earnings estimates of analysts. Just 6 months ago, S&P500 earnings growth was forecast at 10%+.Latest figures show about a -20% decline.


Again the false expectation that global markets should move in sync. Of course we'll pull through, we always do. However, the 97 asian financial crisis is going to pale in comparison to the unwinding of the largest credit bubble in history and thus its effects will be much deeper and long lasting.

Time will tell....BHP, RIO, BNB, CBA, ANZ, forward PE's are still inline with expectations just to name a few. BNB infact has upgraded their profit guidence for the year. I donno why you say the forward PE's are practically useless. With Iron ore to remain tight this year its hard to imagine BHP of RIO to not meet expectations. Btw these companies that i have mentioned make up nearly 20%+ of the ASX200 and their forward earnings for this year and next are absolutely solid. Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies and as long as they continue to grow is hard to see that the demand for our resources to drop.

 

[Buffettology]

Re: XAO Analysis

Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies and as long as they continue to grow is hard to see that the demand for our resources to drop.

Remember, this slowdown is JUST showing up in US figures now. It will take time before it hits China.

Remember time lags are extremelly important and can make a MASSIVE difference to economic data.

 

[Buffettology]

Re: XAO Analysis

how do you get live feed

Cable TV.

 

[Captain G]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just a quick question to all the wise & experiencved. I keep getting caught in these type of rally days thinking it's bottoming, but logic says there is not much to be positive about down the track. But, is a lot of this type of buying we're having and market uplift based on people buying in order to short the market? What are peoples thoughts ?? Cheers

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

I donno why you say the forward PE's are practically useless.

I didn't say they are practically useless. I said they are practically useless around economic turning points. Big difference. Hence analysts completely stuffed up 4Q07 US earnings forecasts because the US now finds itself at such an inflection point. Australia is not .....yet.

With Iron ore to remain tight this year its hard to imagine BHP of RIO to not meet expectations.

I agree, Australian company profits to June this year should reflect a strong Australian economy and strong demand for commodities.

Btw these companies that i have mentioned make up nearly 20%+ of the ASX200

20% of earnings, or 20% of market cap? Are you implying that this statistic is somehow a positive?

and their forward earnings for this year and next are absolutely solid.

Most analysts would be afraid to attach such certainty to forecasts 18 months out. This will be an interesting prediction to revisit in 18 months time.

Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies

Of course it hasn't, there is always a lag. I wouldn't expect to see any discernible slowdown in Chinese growth until at least the second half of this calendar year. Even then, the slowdown will probably not be major. My views are predicated on a US recession that will be deeper and longer than 2001 or 1991-2.

and as long as they continue to grow is hard to see that the demand for our resources to drop.

Continue to grow at what rate? If they continue to grow at 11%, sure I agree. How about 8% or 6%? The IMF recently cut its global growth forecasts, and that is predicated on no US recession.

 

[MR.]

Re: XAO Analysis

Chinese GPD figures out yesterday show that the slow down in the US has yet to effect their economies

I like the "yet" but I would say that.

If I cry wolf long enough it will come. I do very little day trading and I'm not about to increase my volume. So what's left for me?

 

[kengaikl]

Re: XAO Analysis

You guys are absolutely right WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

A bit of a reversal developing on Asian markets.

Will be interesting to see if it continues and if it does, how hard it will hit us.

 

[Bushman]

Re: XAO Analysis

You guys are absolutely right WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!

Oh no the bear pack claims another victim... sell into the rally now. Abandon hope all ye of the predominant faith.

BHP, RIO and BNB are speculative buys at the most.

PS: jaded bulls and bears are not very good with sarcasm.

 

[MR.]

Re: XAO Analysis

You guys are absolutely right WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!

I hope you prove us wrong!

Thanks for your posts. Perhaps in a month or so the numbers here will be the other way round. ie Bulls/Bears

Either way I'm not going to lose.

 

[kengaikl]

Re: XAO Analysis

BHP really punched the bears right in the face today. Thats what you get for shorting fundamentally sound stocks.

Long run the bulls always win.

 

[josjes]

Re: XAO Analysis

No. I'm wrong if we break up through 6100. The higher this bounce goes the less likely we'll see 4800 in the near term and more likely we'll see 4800 as the larger wave pattern unfolds.

So far the zig-zag pattern you predict has been following the script, with the exception on the magnitude of the bounce. Do you still see 6100 as the magic number ? i.e if we break 6100 we will shoot up to bullish view, and if 6100 failed then we'll see 4800 sometime in the middle of the year ?
Do you think you can update your EW analysis ? (which I think is one of the best )

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

So far going to script volume spike (sellers washed out), buying bounce (shorts getting squeezed?), price rising on falling volume (lack of selling pressure) and of course then the next step is.......

 

[MR.]

Re: XAO Analysis

BHP really punched the bears right in the face today. Thats what you get for shorting fundamentally sound stocks.

Long run the bulls always win.

Sorry I must be misundertanding this post Kengaikl.
Are you attempting to have ago at some of us?

I also have a vision of a child with his hands over his ears and a mouth that doesn't know when to shut up!