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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Sigh, wish the US would just have it's crash already! It's due for a 1000+ plummet, dammit.

Then I could actually start doing something, re-enter the market a little without fear of losing another 20% in 2 days :p:

Maybe a whole bunch of Aussie funds will sell today, can only hope :)


Edit; Perhaps average joe is too busy with this superbowl thing over there to sell? :p:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
There are certainly times when this is true, and could even be the case in this instance. Just my opinion.

Disregard if appropriate.
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As you know, I'm running through the streets of Pamplona at the moment. :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wow, hands up if you expected that overnight... bad news in US, and the DJI rallies, WTF!! Sounds like the good old days of buy good news, buy bad news are back!!

our aussie SPI has been doing massive swings lately...

by a really rough calculation (i mean really rough), we've done around 3000 points over the last 8 trading session from peaks to dips since the crash on Tuesday 22nd. :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
wow, hands up if you expected that overnight... bad news in US, and the DJI rallies, WTF!! Sounds like the good old days of buy good news, buy bad news are back!!
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The US went up for the same reason the Asian markets went up yesterday.

The sellers have been washed out and its time for the squeeze.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Some of the possible drivers of the US market which may affect the colour of our day.. or the way we squeeze our fresh brekky oranges...
Some stock reports attributing afternoon gains on stocks on the conference call from MBIA who does not see its rating in trouble and who actually offered AMBAC $5 bln in reinsurance.
Bad news from ratings agencies has been mostly ignored today in this stock rally with S&P reporting that a rise of a downgrade is at a two-year high and with Moody"s raising expectations of subprime losses to 14-18% earlier this morning from current actual losses of only 1.5%. Earlier today, Fitch downgraded US Auto ABS bonds and also reported that losses on Prime US auto ABS surged 60% in December on a year-over-year basis. The FDIC warned today that hundreds of thousands of foreclosures are looming and also noted today were a number of job layoff announcements.
S&P has cut FGIC ratings and put MBIA and XLCA on ratings watch negative. The move was announced only 8 minutes before the market close, fuelling the sharp fall in the stock market off the highs.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
Some of the possible drivers of the US market which may affect the colour of our day.. or the way we squeeze our fresh brekky oranges...
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Kauri,

Do you actually trade off all this news you collect or just like reading??
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Kauri,

Do you actually trade off all this news you collect or just like reading??
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Check my posts re my trading... usually.. sorry.. always.. posted in real time... :) I find the "news" laced with my attempts at T/A serve me quite well. However, each to his own I guess.
The "news", or more accurately rumours, I post are what is actually floating around the floors... I strangely enough find it more helpfull than the oft quoted.. profit-takers have moved in... bargain-hunters appeared..... at al.. usually trotted out by "talking heads" to explain away what they can't explain...
Where, or more inportantly which direction, is the aforementioned squeeze going to take us??
Cheers
...........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
As i said yesterday.

UP
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So regardless of what is happening in the world and BB's mind.. yesterday was a wash and squeeze... and when the market goes up today it is still a wash and squeeze??? and if the market goes up on subsequent days we are still washing and squeezing for all we are worth... when do we run out of lemons to squeeze.. when the market turns... when profit-takers step in.. when someone changes the rates.. when a downgrade to a monoline happens... when China starts shutting down refineries.. when a "talking head" tells us... when the PPT says it's time for a break... or maybe when my budgie falls off its perch???
Cheers
..........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
So regardless of what is happening in the world and BB's mind.. yesterday was a wash and squeeze... and when the market goes up today it is still a wash and squeeze??? and if the market goes up on subsequent days we are still washing and squeezing for all we are worth... when do we run out of lemons to squeeze.. when the market turns... when profit-takers step in.. when someone changes the rates.. when a downgrade to a monoline happens... when China starts shutting down refineries.. when a "talking head" tells us... when the PPT says it's time for a break... or maybe when my budgie falls off its perch???
Cheers
..........Kauri
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:confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
So regardless of what is happening in the world and BB's mind.. yesterday was a wash and squeeze... and when the market goes up today it is still a wash and squeeze??? and if the market goes up on subsequent days we are still washing and squeezing for all we are worth... when do we run out of lemons to squeeze.. when the market turns... when profit-takers step in.. when someone changes the rates.. when a downgrade to a monoline happens... when China starts shutting down refineries.. when a "talking head" tells us... when the PPT says it's time for a break... or maybe when my budgie falls off its perch???
Cheers
..........Kauri
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It would be really handy if you could let us know when your bugie takes his next bath....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
:confused:
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sorry.. :)
I take it we are washing out the sellers and it is a short squeeze we are experiencing???

I would have thought if a short squeeze was on the table it would have happened on 23rd..24th..and 25th of Jan.. (along with Tricoms margin call problems).. but I can't really see a mass of shorts being established over the past3 days that are being squeezed that would not have already been through the juicer last week?? (last bar is todays. so far) :)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Another Bearish signal for you all to mull over :eek:

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Australian manufacturing shrank in January for the first time in almost two years after raw- material costs increased and financial markets slumped.

The performance of manufacturing index fell 8.4 points to 49.2 from December, PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Australian Industry Group said in a report released in Canberra today. That's the first reading lower than 50 since May 2006, which indicates manufacturing is contracting.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR9yhfmd9Yp4&refer=home
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
I would have thought if a short squeeze was on the table it would have happened on 23rd..24th..and 25th of Jan.. )
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Does make sense.....

A question, does anyone think here there is anything in the following volumes to sellers and buyers?


WOW totals (Buyers 650) (Sellers 390) but the volumes units are about the same.

RIO totals (Buyers 1040) (Sellers 480) but the volumes units are about the same.

Similar for many others eg: BHP, CBA, NAB. there are twice the about of buyers as sellers for the same units and it has been like this for days!

My un-educated guess:
- The educated are unloading to the unsuspecting?
or
- The educated are buying small amonts adding to their holdings from panicking sellers.

Does it depend on which side of the tree you sit on for an answer?
comments:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thats fence not tree. Blooooooody un-educated................................
 
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