CBH - CBH Resources

[Ken]

Totally agree. BHP and RIO sat for sometime, whilst the banks and other private equities peformed strongly.

Everything in phases. When people start to get the jitters about falling copper prices, or oil.. the money will go into the banks again, and the telcos.

That is the way I have seen it.

I remember BHP at $24 and a lot of people were calling for it to fall to $18....

 

[UMike]

I've made alot of money with CBH. Buy at 56 or below, sell at 60-61 or above.

I've bought 4 times at 61c or above thinking CBH was gonna "skyrocket" and lost abit of money each time.

btw I think CBH is a very good prospect long term and given rising Zinc, Lead and Cooper prices and a long term Aussie dollar around 78-80c should see the SP around back to there previous highs of the mid 80s cents.

 

[Sean K]

I'm keeping an eye on this myself now. This sideways action will turn one way or the other, so looking for a break through the resistance at about 65 cents. Needs to break that first slightly downward line first, before I start getting excited.

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi kennas

We are in for yet another run out of these .... I'm finding my watchlist growing each night now. So many compression triangles all at similar stages that within a few weeks we will all be astounded yet again ... I've turned raging bull

 

[porkpie324]

I agree with Cap'n Klutz, there's money to be made trading CBH buy at about 55c-57c and sell above .60. I had a good trade last week bought mon sold thurs, you can now trade CBH using CFDs. porkpie

 

[UMike]

I agree with Cap'n Klutz, there's money to be made trading CBH buy at about 55c-57c and sell above .60. I had a good trade last week bought mon sold thurs, you can now trade CBH using CFDs. porkpie

Who's a Klutz ffs gdm. ;-)

Bought some again at 57.5c. .....

But knowing my luck it'll touch 55c before getting to 60c.

 

[porkpie324]

I was on the verge of opening on CBH yesterday, but did'nt like the quotes so held off, now today after a small drop in zinc on the LME and a large DJI drop, today could be the day, porkpie

 

[GREENS]

The only thing I dont why is 2009 forecast EPS is only 3.5 and in 2008 its 10.8?

Thx
MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -2.8 6.1 10.8 3.5
DPS 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.5

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 6.1 9.8 --
Year Ending 30-06-08 10.8 5.5 77.0%

MS I ran some numbers on CBH profits and EPS for the full 2009 financial year and I have to agree those 09 numbers definitely seem a little odd, considering:
• Endeavor is expected to ramp up production to around 1.4Mt p.a.
• Rasp Mine (CML-7) will be operational for around 10/12 months for that time period producing around 750,000t p.a.
• & Sulphur Springs is expected to begin production early 09 i.e. for around a quarter of this period producing around 1.5Mt p.a.

When I did this I used metal prices of:
Zn – $1.10/lb
Ld – $0.55/lb
Cu – $2.38/lb
Silver – $10.00

If those EPS numbers are for the full calendar year and not the financial year of 2009, then I would expect the EPS to be considerably higher than my calculated EPS figure and $0.035.

MS it is always good to get a sense for yourself and not rely so much on broker forecasts for EPS figures, Analysts are relatively accurate for the big end of town but fairly inaccurate for the med-smaller end.

 

[ozambersand]

Thanks for all this information. I have been watching zinc closely since getting some Zinifex shares in Febuary. I am also looking at the alternatives (eg JML and CBH). So your discussions have been very helpful.

Back in June, GREENS said:

The latest CBH presentation has just come out, quite an interesting read, But what drew my eye was that the company plans to hedge a quarter of its base metal and foreign exchange exposure over the next year starting from June 2007.

I also checked out the presentation on their site and this is what the MD Bob Besley said:

They have introduced a strategy to hedge 25% of base metal & associated foreign currency at certain prices, we have reached that price in lead prices but not quite reached it yet in zinc, so we are effectively unhedged.

Can someone please explain to me this information. Are they setting a price lower(?) than it is currently getting in anticipation that either a) the $A exchange rate goes up too much and b) the zinc or lead prices goes down.

Is this a good thing?

My next question is about Toho Zinc. Is it a good or bad thing that they are locked into providing zinc only through their smelters.

Finally, I gather they own a port handling presence at Newcastle. Given the problems with the railway line and shipping out of Newcastle, has anyone heard if this will affect its profits this year?

 

[GREENS]

Can someone please explain to me this information. Are they setting a price lower(?) than it is currently getting in anticipation that either a) the $A exchange rate goes up too much and b) the zinc or lead prices goes down.

Is this a good thing?

My next question is about Toho Zinc. Is it a good or bad thing that they are locked into providing zinc only through their smelters.

Finally, I gather they own a port handling presence at Newcastle. Given the problems with the railway line and shipping out of Newcastle, has anyone heard if this will affect its profits this year?

Ozam thanks for clarifying that I took what Bob Beasley said slightly different than what he actually meant, I listened to it again and to me what he was effectively saying is that they have set price targets for Ld and Zn to hedge at; The lead price is at or above what they wanted (for example $1/lb), so therefore by the sounds of it have hedged around 25% of there lead production for the next year. While Zn has not meet there minimal hedge target (for example 1.80/lb maybe) so therefore have not hedged any of there Zn production so far and thus the company remains almost fully leveraged to spot prices.

The company would probably be receiving a slightly lower price than thew current spot prices of $1.365/lb mark. They did say they would hedge in the previous month which would mean they hedged at a price somewhere between $1.06-1.17. There next quarterly report should say what average price and amount of production they have hedged at. But don’t forget 75% of lead production is still exposed to these higher spot prices.

There a bit vague in regards to the currency, not sure whether, when they decide to take a short position to hedge the metal they simultaneously enter into a foreign exchange contract or whether they will enter into the foreign exchange contract regardless of there hedging position in Zn or Ld, (because remember they are only hedging if certain prices are met).

Not 100% sure about the Toho Zn relationship, have wondered that myself? And have my thoughts on the Newcastle port but would only be taking a best guess and do not know enough knowledge about this side of the company. Maybe Rederob would know in regards to the Toho Zn relationship he always seems to have answers for everything!

Greens

 

[countryboy]

have overlooked CBH as an iron ore play:
from the website

CONSTANCE RANGE (IRON)
The Constance Range iron ore deposits are located in the far north west of Queensland, adjacent to the Northern Territory border. More than fifty years ago the iron ore deposits were identified and drilled by BHP who estimated a non JORC compliant resource of approximately 250Mt @ 52% Fe.


any thoughts ?

 

[rico01]

have overlooked CBH as an iron ore play:
from the website

CONSTANCE RANGE (IRON)
The Constance Range iron ore deposits are located in the far north west of Queensland, adjacent to the Northern Territory border. More than fifty years ago the iron ore deposits were identified and drilled by BHP who estimated a non JORC compliant resource of approximately 250Mt @ 52% Fe.


any thoughts ?

Looks like CBH is trying real hard to break up It should be rerated with the increase in base metal prices over the last year and particularly the last few months.

 

[ta2693]

I am always looking for a zn pb company to add into my portfolio. CBH looks good. If it can break 62c I will take a small long position.

If it breaks out, I am in. I hope I have some luck here.

 

[mick2006]

something is certainly going on with CBH with some massive buying going on, not sure if it is institutions adding to their holdings or maybe another miner taking a stake in the company, so if the time comes for consolidation in the zinc/lead sector they have a foot in CBH's door.

 

[hypnotic]

Zinc spot price should be rerated very soon, due to the fallen stock level in the LME. It is been at its lowest level since forever and this is reflected in the increase in spot price zinc today. Given time we should see the spot price of Zinc back in the US$1.80 - US$1.90/lb mark, which is an increase of roughly 10%.
Also there is still plenty of demand for iron (steel) in China so there should be demand for zinc also.

It is possibly the increase in the zinc spot price driving up the zinc miners.

JML - up 4%
CBH - up 5.88%
ZFX - up 1.44%
the only exception is KZL - down 0.3%

Hypnotic

 

[rico01]

This is the point we're all waiting for.
It should break thru today as I type this it has gone to 64.5.

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Hypno

Agreed .... although couldn't quite get there on the close I took a position.

This one has a recent history of accumulation in the compression pattern we have witnessed over the last few months.

Should move on now .... famous last words

 

[ozambersand]

A few posts back, Greens noted:

Their next quarterly report should say what average price and amount of production they have hedged at. But don’t forget 75% of lead production is still exposed to these higher spot prices.

Which made me look up their last quarter report to see when the next one will be. However, from their website, it looks like they didn't post a quarterly report back in April (when they did post one in previous years) and their next quarterly report is due around 27th July (but no announcement that it will happen then).
Someone else commented on the lack of information out of the company, and I will agree to that statement!
So, apart from what can be gleaned from Bob Besley's audio presentation, a lot of the figures are based on pretty raw data.
Last week, I put Bollinger Band indicators on their chart (but didn't post - sorry), and saw it looked due for a breakout - which it did today.
It will be interesting to see how far it goes and whether it is just expectation of a good report (if it ever gets released!).
I gather they needed Toho zinc to help them get up and running, but in some ways it hampers its attraction as a takeover target by other companies which have their own smelters as I couldn't imagine Toho would be happy to see them disappear.
One advantage of having the Newcastle Port Handling facility is that they hopefully gave their own ore priority during the bottleneck!
I noticed that they had an Appendix 3B announcement today:

2 Number of +securities issued or to be issued (if known) or maximum number which may be issued

35,000 ordinary shares on exercise of unlisted employee options

Wonder if that had anything to do with the fact that 10,000,000+ shares traded today when there are usually only around 2 or 3 million on average. Could that explain the jump or did it just remind people that the company exists?!

 

[motion]

Hi Guys,

Now this is just a thought, maybe the movement in the SP is becuase of the results of the remaining 11 holes at Kangaroo Caves is due along with a possible revised resource estimate will be ann as well.

I refer to ann on the 16/06/07

CBH Resources advised that RC drilling at the Kangaroo Caves deposit within the Panorama JV by Sipa Resources has intersected high grade zinc mineralization including 20m @ 13.7% Zn and 0.2% Cu and 15m @ 11.6% Zn and 0.3% Cu. These intersections were recorded in the upper part of the deposit and will be further evaluated for open cut potential as additional feed for CBHs planned Panorama mill. Results from the remaining 11 holes at Kangaroo Caves are expected over the next two to three weeks from which it is anticipated that a revised resource estimate will be calculated and studies on the potential for an open cut completed.

 

[dj_420]

Hi Guys,

Now this is just a thought, maybe the movement in the SP is becuase of the results of the remaining 11 holes at Kangaroo Caves is due along with a possible revised resource estimate will be ann as well.

i would actually suggest the movement in sp is due to zinc stockpile movement on the LME, stocks still dropping lead reaching new heights.

i think market would place more value on current producers rather than potential deposits at the moment

i am jumping back on board this one for another zinc run IMO