AED - AED Oil

[resourceboom]

aosleung, investing in any company involves some degree of speculation on its future, obviously there is higher risk in companies not yet making money.

However I believe that AED is one of the best risk - rewards prospects available on the market at the moment.

Management have publicly announced they expect (the main risk) based on flow testing the two producing wells at at least 30,000 bopd (10M per year, do the math). Now I think there is a fair chance of the P/E on success (Eg after 1 years production) should be at least 5-8, considering that they still have 3 other zones including the large SW. They have the newly purchased field and massive exploration targets.

The exploration drilling, which will be started in the 2nd half of this year will reduce PRRT which will be large.

Its also wise to look at the downside. Even if there was massive problems (ala HDR in Mauritania), which I think is a much lower risk, as the Puffin field is in a very productive and established area, then after the initial fall I believe the share price would be unlikely to slide to under the current price, as there should be a further runup before production.

I agree with your comments, just noting why some people are so keen on the company, esp at the current price. If you could list a company which you believe should at least comfortably double in the next year, with relatively low risk, then I would be very interested.

 

[dj_420]

now on board this one guys, future forecast PE of 3 is something unbelievable.

just wish i picked these guys up earlier. im in this one for long term, my first gas and oiler and i like it a lot. got around half my order so will fill the rest on any weakness in sp.

 

[nizar]

now on board this one guys, future forecast PE of 3 is something unbelievable.

just wish i picked these guys up earlier. im in this one for long term, my first gas and oiler and i like it a lot. got around half my order so will fill the rest on any weakness in sp.

Good man.

Welcome aboard.

Check out NWE as well, they are getting Royalties from AED for any production on puffin field.

 

[dj_420]

yeah have had another look at NWE nizar, they do look very good for future cash flow.

expect AED to be a major cash cow very soon!

 

[imajica]

appears to have broken out of recent consolidation in the low 7's

currently at $7.46 looking promising

 

[Sprinter79]

This may seem like a n00b question, but I found the following interesting when I looked at the market depth of AED just after close.

The seller has put his/her price much lower than the last trade, and the buyer has put theirs in much higher than the last trade. Is this just to ensure that their trade goes through, or is there something else to it?

 

[dj_420]

thought this was an interesting pattern on AED long term chart, typically shows large increase between 30-50% followed by a consolidation period of 3-4 months.

last increase saw a rise from $5 up to $7.75 now trading between $7 and $7.50. tested short term support around 7 ish and held. downside support i would put at $7 with medium term support at $5.

 

[questionall_42]

For all those AED sharehholders out there, thought you'd be happy to know that your company is receiving publlicity in the least likely places.

I walked the "Run to the G" in Melbourne on Sunday, and there were about 10people wearing AED tshirts with the puffin logo. Very cute.

 

[laurie]

$5!!!! not at this stage when production is close until the FSPO turns up $7.20 - $7.40 will be the base resistance line if POO holds up at their levels now it only takes one strike or a large oil refinery to go off line then it's anyone guess

cheers laurie

 

[dj_420]

$5!!!! not at this stage when production is close until the FSPO turns up $7.20 - $7.40 will be the base resistance line if POO holds up at their levels now it only takes one strike or a large oil refinery to go off line then it's anyone guess

cheers laurie

lol im only telling what the chart says laurie!

IMO it wont fall back down to these prices, and i expect to see this one get picked up on any weakness from here on in

im just stating from tech point of view SHORT term support at the moment at around the $7 mark and longer term support at $5

yes with production imminent we will begin to see another rally IMO

 

[Areo]

Sprinter79,

The quick answer is yes, the overlap in prices will ensure the buy and seller transact.

The market was in pre-open at the time of your snapshot. This is an auction period, where bids and asks may be placed in the market without trading. At a random time between 4.10 and 4.11 the market is effectively locked down, all bids/asks are matched, and a closing price is determined.

A professional trading system (you appear to be using E*Trade, so such a system would be E*Trade Pro) can calculate the match price for you which can be quite handy when trying to achieve a specific price. The algorithm may be found on the ASX website.

BTW, it can be dangerous to bid too high / sell too low. I recall Deutsche Bank taking a huge hit on the AMP IPO in the 90s - I think a significant number of sellers pulled out their asks at the last second which resulted in a much higher match price. Heads rolled that day.

Regarding AED, if it all comes together without too many hiccups... it will be trading at such a low PE.... there is so much potential here.

Questioning the Talbot purchase... don't really understand it just yet. Didn't Hardman Resources hold it, sunk a well or two and subsequently abandoned it?

Areo

 

[Sprinter79]

Sprinter79,

The quick answer is yes, the overlap in prices will ensure the buy and seller transact.

The market was in pre-open at the time of your snapshot. This is an auction period, where bids and asks may be placed in the market without trading. At a random time between 4.10 and 4.11 the market is effectively locked down, all bids/asks are matched, and a closing price is determined.

A professional trading system (you appear to be using E*Trade, so such a system would be E*Trade Pro) can calculate the match price for you which can be quite handy when trying to achieve a specific price. The algorithm may be found on the ASX website.


Areo

Thanks for that. I'm not really that worried, i just found it interesting. I'm sure that there have been some unintentional outcomes in the past doing this hahaha, and both trades were for a piddly amount of shares too!

 

[nizar]

lol im only telling what the chart says laurie!

IMO it wont fall back down to these prices, and i expect to see this one get picked up on any weakness from here on in

im just stating from tech point of view SHORT term support at the moment at around the $7 mark and longer term support at $5

yes with production imminent we will begin to see another rally IMO

I beg to differ.
The previous trading range was $4.75-5.25.
Support at $4.75.
Hence my initial stop was set to $4.70.

Still in the current trading range since mid-May $7.00-$7.70.
Hasnt broken out of this trading range yet.
Today was bullish though nice volume,

When it breaks above $7.70 on some vo

 

[laurie]

lol im only telling what the chart says laurie!

lol no worries dj_420 charts look like a drawing of steps to me one of these days I may understand how to read them would love to know if the FPSO is on it's way to fill up

cheers laurie

 

[Robert_Q]

I was reading through the prospectus from a couple of years ago and was interested in the royalties payable on Puffin. I know about the 1.25% payable to NWE but there was mention of 20% of production upto 10.3 million barrels then a sliding scale of 10% and 15% for above that level. I didn't really understand it but i was hoping that someone here could briefly explain that for me.

Also, royalties are paid on gross revenue rather than profits, right?

 

[imajica]

I thought it might be time for another chart post

could someone with T/A wizardry please interpret this graph

thanks in advance

to me it looks like its ready for the next leg up

 

[chops_a_must]

I thought it might be time for another chart post

could someone with T/A wizardry please interpret this graph

thanks in advance

to me it looks like its ready for the next leg up

I agree. Although, with delays expected to the production start up, it could drift back down.

Horizontal trading in an uptrend indicates an unwillingness of holders to sell at this point in time, and at this price. There has been a slight drop in volume over this period, with any weakness swiftly bought up, and any volume pushing the price higher. Once again indicating further upward pressure and momentum.

Whether or not it has an outstanding break from here this time, a new floor and support level has been set. I will be looking to trade the breakout again, although only looking to freehold these profits, rather than adding to the now large holding. I've said previously where I think this will go technically, perhaps just shy of $10 on commencement of production or just before, and a mid term target of between $12-14.

But a close above 7.75 will see this one go again IMO.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[imajica]

dow up 90 points and crude oil nearing $70 a barrel

the only thing that will stop AED is the end of financial year - I feel that July and August will be good for AED holders

 

[bigdog]

SP is up first today:

AED $7.40 +$0.17 +2.35% 7,972 shares $58,779 28-Jun 10:11:00

ASX ann today
28-06-2007 09:46 AM AED AED enters into Crude Oil Marketing Agreement with Total
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070628/pdf/31355qyx14z2cf.pdf

AED Enters into Crude Oil Marketing Agreement with Total
AED Oil Limited (AED) announces that it has entered into an agreement with Totsa, Total Oil Trading SA (“Totsa”), a subsidiary of Total SA (“Total”), for the marketing of the Puffin North East Crude Oil.

AED has undertaken an extensive selection process for its crude oil marketer and is pleased with the natural alignment of marketing strategies achieved under this agreement. AED is pleased with the extensive market opportunities within the region and globally that Total offers.

Puffin is a premium quality light sweet crude with an API Gravity of approximately 44° and sulphur content of 0.05 wt%. The crude produces high yields of excellent quality gasoline and middle distillates making it an ideal feedstock and, in particular, for Australian and Asian refineries which should result in valuation at the high end of world crude prices. The agreement with Totsa is based on a FOB (Free On Board) contract.

Total is one of the world’s major oil and gas groups, with activities in more than 130 countries. Its 95,000 employees put their expertise to work in every part of the industry – exploration and production of oil and natural gas, refining and marketing, oil and gas and electricity trading.

 

[dj_420]

yes it is starting to come together nicely. does anyone realise that at end of july they will be producing 30 000 barrels of sweet crude per day?

cant wait for re-rating on this one