AED - AED Oil
- Thread starter lewstherin
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Certainly a very good time to be holding AED, rising oil price, commencement of production on Puffin fields due very shortly, exploration upside.
Will take shape nicely of the next couple of years, one of the better long term holds, will generate massive cashflow from Puffin allowing massive exploration efforts over the next couple of years. And wouldn't be surprised if dividends are possible late next year.
Will take shape nicely of the next couple of years, one of the better long term holds, will generate massive cashflow from Puffin allowing massive exploration efforts over the next couple of years. And wouldn't be surprised if dividends are possible late next year.
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AED is certainly a goer and a long-term hold for anyone who currently holds it. There is enormous upside for this company with their exploration ventures. Could be another Woodside in the making.
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AED managed to get a write up in petroleumnews.net to do with the talbot plans.
AED spreads wings over Timor Sea *UPDATE*
(Friday, 1 June 2007)
FOLLOWING its acquisition of retention lease AC/RL1 yesterday, AED Sea says it plans to bring the Talbot oil discovery in the Timor Sea into production in late 2008.
Just wondering if someone with a subscription could post it up here.
cheers in advance
g
AED spreads wings over Timor Sea *UPDATE*
(Friday, 1 June 2007)
FOLLOWING its acquisition of retention lease AC/RL1 yesterday, AED Sea says it plans to bring the Talbot oil discovery in the Timor Sea into production in late 2008.
Just wondering if someone with a subscription could post it up here.
cheers in advance
g
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FOLLOWING its acquisition of retention lease AC/RL1 yesterday, AED Sea says it plans to bring the Talbot oil discovery in the Timor Sea into production in late 2008.
Map showing AED's Timor Sea assets
The company, which paid $2 million for Apache Energy's 100% stake in the retention lease, said the field is independently estimated to contain 21.8 million barrels of oil initially in place.
Of this figure, a recovery rate of 30-60% is estimated based on other comparable fields in the region, it said.
"The Talbot field was identified by AED as an opportunity to expand its regional operations on a synergistic basis at the time of the original acquisition of the Puffin Field," AED said.
"AED has been in negotiations to acquire this field for some years."
Discovered in 1989, the field will be subject to an appraisal and development program with the aim of bringing it online by late 2008.
Initial development plans include drilling a new production well with dual lateral horizontal well bores and an initial gas cap blow-down, followed by oil production and water production.
"This type of development model has been used successfully in other fields in the Timor Sea region," AED said.
"Additionally, it also has exploration potential and may provide synergies with the Puffin Field development, including the Puffin South West region development, which is presently being considered."
The retention lease is covered by modern 2D seismic lines and a reprocessed 3D seismic survey.
Santos has drilled two wells in the lease to date, Talbot-1 and Talbot-2. Both tested and flowed at rates of up to about 500 barrels of oil per day.
Map showing AED's Timor Sea assets
The company, which paid $2 million for Apache Energy's 100% stake in the retention lease, said the field is independently estimated to contain 21.8 million barrels of oil initially in place.
Of this figure, a recovery rate of 30-60% is estimated based on other comparable fields in the region, it said.
"The Talbot field was identified by AED as an opportunity to expand its regional operations on a synergistic basis at the time of the original acquisition of the Puffin Field," AED said.
"AED has been in negotiations to acquire this field for some years."
Discovered in 1989, the field will be subject to an appraisal and development program with the aim of bringing it online by late 2008.
Initial development plans include drilling a new production well with dual lateral horizontal well bores and an initial gas cap blow-down, followed by oil production and water production.
"This type of development model has been used successfully in other fields in the Timor Sea region," AED said.
"Additionally, it also has exploration potential and may provide synergies with the Puffin Field development, including the Puffin South West region development, which is presently being considered."
The retention lease is covered by modern 2D seismic lines and a reprocessed 3D seismic survey.
Santos has drilled two wells in the lease to date, Talbot-1 and Talbot-2. Both tested and flowed at rates of up to about 500 barrels of oil per day.
Does anyone know what AED's expected production costs will be? I was using USD20 per barrel for my analysis, does that sound reasonable?
I think RRT also applies on this field. Is that still 40% of profit? I'd appreciate some thoughts on this because unless AED does some exploration (hence the Talbot acquisition) to offset RRT, that is going to take a big chunck of it's cash flow.
Anyone have thoughts on this?
I think RRT also applies on this field. Is that still 40% of profit? I'd appreciate some thoughts on this because unless AED does some exploration (hence the Talbot acquisition) to offset RRT, that is going to take a big chunck of it's cash flow.
Anyone have thoughts on this?
I am no expert at share trading but based on logic it seems to me that the recent drop in AED's share price is either related to the new issue announcement or sell-off in the Shanghai. The latter is not unreasonable given there was some effect back in February when the Shanghai fell 9.9% but I am surprised by the number of shares issued - c44m versus c73m previously on issue which equates to c$320m-330m. Even more surprised that there is no information on this whatsoever.
I question what the company will do with this money given the recent acquisition only costs $2m. If it goes to directors then obviously, there is a dilution effect becuase there is no extra value from the issuance. If it stays in the company, then what interest rate will the company earn on the cash or have they run out of cash for puffin (not previously mentioned in their qtrly reports)? If it goes towards a new project then the question is whether the project is npv positive? Due to these uncertainties, despite the strength of the share price to date and the strong management team, unless they come out with an announcement soon to address this issue, it is difficult not to expect the price to drop further.
Based on this reasoning, I am thinking of trading on the short term volatility which I don't often do for AED but it's very disappointing to see such a large issue without any support.
I question what the company will do with this money given the recent acquisition only costs $2m. If it goes to directors then obviously, there is a dilution effect becuase there is no extra value from the issuance. If it stays in the company, then what interest rate will the company earn on the cash or have they run out of cash for puffin (not previously mentioned in their qtrly reports)? If it goes towards a new project then the question is whether the project is npv positive? Due to these uncertainties, despite the strength of the share price to date and the strong management team, unless they come out with an announcement soon to address this issue, it is difficult not to expect the price to drop further.
Based on this reasoning, I am thinking of trading on the short term volatility which I don't often do for AED but it's very disappointing to see such a large issue without any support.
bigdog
Retired many years ago
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Two reports today as BUY
AED - Buy for imminent start to huge cash flows from Puffin oil
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=04AC2DB1-17A4-1130-F5F3BFE18F79CDC0
http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning Note Thursday.pdf
SP finished up today
AED $7.38 +$0.18 +2.50% with high $7.45 292,233 shares $2,130,601 @ 07-Jun 16:10:22
AED - Buy for imminent start to huge cash flows from Puffin oil
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=04AC2DB1-17A4-1130-F5F3BFE18F79CDC0
http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning Note Thursday.pdf
SP finished up today
AED $7.38 +$0.18 +2.50% with high $7.45 292,233 shares $2,130,601 @ 07-Jun 16:10:22
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hey guys i like AED for huge cash flows about to start. im not in yet but only looked at it today.
this will be my first gas and oiler ive bought never really researched them before.
what other gas and oilers are you guys looking at that are production imminent??
thanks
this will be my first gas and oiler ive bought never really researched them before.
what other gas and oilers are you guys looking at that are production imminent??
thanks
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This is not a share issue, it is simply shares which had restrictions imposed as part of the float being released from those restrictions and becoming listed. No real affect on the company at all.
Intersuisse Another Supporter Of AED Oil
FN Arena News - June 07 2007
By Chris Shaw
Until the end of last month when Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to Neutral on valuation grounds AED Oil (AED) had scored a perfect four for four Buy ratings in the FNArena database on the back of its expected production growth from the Puffin oil field.
With the stock having pulled back a little since the Credit Suisse change the valuation scenario is improving, enough for Intersuisse to rate the stock as a Buy at current prices given the upcoming commencement of production.
The broker notes production is forecast to start in the September quarter at a rate of around 30,000 barrels per day, while this should be added to in 2008 via the recent acquisition of the Talbot oil field located just 60km away from Puffin.
This should enable some infrastructure to be shared, so lowering production costs for the company. At the same time there remains exploration potential at Puffin, while the broker also is attracted to the fact the oil produced will be Tapis crude, which attracts a premium given its relatively low sulphur content.
On the brokers estimates the company should generate a net profit in FY08 of $338.4m, compared to a forecast loss this year of $14.5m. Such a result would translate into earnings per share of 226.4c, which equates to a P/E (price to earnings ratio) of just over 3x at current prices.
Shares in AED Oil are stronger today despite the weaker overall market as at 3.30pm the stock was up 17c at $7.37. This compares to a recent high of $7.76, while the average price target in the FNArena database is $7.42.
FN Arena News - June 07 2007
By Chris Shaw
Until the end of last month when Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to Neutral on valuation grounds AED Oil (AED) had scored a perfect four for four Buy ratings in the FNArena database on the back of its expected production growth from the Puffin oil field.
With the stock having pulled back a little since the Credit Suisse change the valuation scenario is improving, enough for Intersuisse to rate the stock as a Buy at current prices given the upcoming commencement of production.
The broker notes production is forecast to start in the September quarter at a rate of around 30,000 barrels per day, while this should be added to in 2008 via the recent acquisition of the Talbot oil field located just 60km away from Puffin.
This should enable some infrastructure to be shared, so lowering production costs for the company. At the same time there remains exploration potential at Puffin, while the broker also is attracted to the fact the oil produced will be Tapis crude, which attracts a premium given its relatively low sulphur content.
On the brokers estimates the company should generate a net profit in FY08 of $338.4m, compared to a forecast loss this year of $14.5m. Such a result would translate into earnings per share of 226.4c, which equates to a P/E (price to earnings ratio) of just over 3x at current prices.
Shares in AED Oil are stronger today despite the weaker overall market as at 3.30pm the stock was up 17c at $7.37. This compares to a recent high of $7.76, while the average price target in the FNArena database is $7.42.
Good response! Given the lack of responses on this issue (prior to your response), I assumed people here didn't understand so I subsequently went back to the previous Appendix 3B and noticed that there were 84m quoted shares and 33m unquoted shares hence no change. Half yearly financials were also showing shares on issue of around 112m so the effect if any should be small. Thanks for clearing this up! Gives me a bit more confidence in reading these threads.
Estimating the first dividends would be speculation since AED has not come out with a dividend forecast. You could however perform an Earnings per share calc $338.4m divide by number of shares on issue 117m which gives you $2.88 and P/E is therefore 2.52x which is very low compared to its peers hence the reason the share price has kept on going up. However as brokers have pointed out, AED has the risk of single asset exposure and unless they can extract more oil or bring on more projects like Puffin, it's difficult to see how share price can keep on going up. Hopefully, talbot might make a difference.
This is pure speculation. The real answer is noted by Olive. The share price has come down today so it's just market volatility. But good on you for having speculated for so long!AED bouncing back today - production imminent - this stock is sound as a pound - compare AED to FMG for example - no profits for ages and a market cap of 11 billion!
AED is a sound investment
