LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Hoping it breaks on through to that other side of 8 bucks. Slowly, steady freddy goes it... then ... bang wallop smashing on through that barrier would be really nice and considerate of it....

Anyways ; have a great weekend everybody.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

What's been lifting the Lynas share price?​

Less than two months ago, the Lynas share price was sitting near two-year lows.
However, a number of brokers said that at those levels, the ASX rare earths miner was undervalued.

In early August, Bell Potter maintained its buy rating on the stock with an $8.50 price target. This was more than 40% above the share price at the time, with the broker optimistic about the outlook for the rare earths market. And investors have continued to support the rare earths miner since Lynas released its full-year results (FY 2024) on 28 August.

That came despite a big retrace in some of the company's core metrics.

Revenue of $463.3 million, for instance, was down 41.6% from FY 2023, while net profit after tax (NPAT) of $84.5 million was down 72.8% year on year.

Profits and revenue came under pressure amid what were said to be "stubbornly low" rare earths market prices over the 12 months. And demand from China remained subdued.

With China recently upping its stimulus measures to boost its sluggish economic growth, the Lynas share price may be getting a lift from expectations of stronger demand in the year ahead.

Having received a variation for its Malaysian operating licence in FY 2024, Lynas is now also able to continue cracking and leaching in Malaysia.

And the miner's Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility, in Western Australia, achieved first production over the year, which should bode well for FY 2025.

Addressing the ups and downs in rare earths prices during the results announcement, Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze said, "Lynas has over a decade of experience as a supplier of separated rare earths and this means we are well prepared to weather market price volatility."

The Lynas share price is up 13% over 12 months.

Aforementioned article written by Bernd Struben for the Motley Fool on 26 September 2024.


rcw1: Most of the article was common knowledge for avid LYC followers, but these two lines did remind rcw1 of the actual Chinese impact on REE market, regardless...

With China recently upping its stimulus measures to boost its sluggish economic growth, the Lynas share price may be getting a lift from expectations of stronger demand in the year ahead.

China has banned the export of rare earth extraction and separation technologies protecting its market dominance and has previously threatened to cut off supply. Very soon the heavy REE monopoly will soon be a duopoly ... then the fun will commence across all markets particularly those requiring military grade REE.

Time will confirm or deny this.

rcw1 in boots and all.

Have a very nice Sunday.


Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Rosscoe62]

A very good sign rcw1 …

Yes, LYC like many resource stocks is breaking out with plenty of momentum. The resources/materials are on a tear as many have stated on other threads. Looking very good mid term.

Now over the $8 mark and sprinting,

Held

 

[rcw1]

Good morning

LYC quarterly published... see attached.
Reported declining sales and revenue amid a drop-off in prices for its rare earth materials.
Sales revenue fell to $120.5 million in the September quarter, compared to $128.1 million in last year’s same quarter.

“Rare earths prices continued at low levels during Q1 FY25 … As foreshadowed when we released our FY24 annual results, production levels were managed in line with market demand,” the company said.

Construction of Mt Weld Expansion Project Stage 2 (Balance of Plant) is progressing as planned, with good progress on the grinding and flotation circuits. Stage 2 is forecast to be complete by the end of FY25 and will be progressively commissioned.

The ramp up of the new Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility continued in the September quarter, in line with increased production at Mt Weld and Lynas Malaysia and market demand. Lynas Malaysia processed the first batch of MREC from Kalgoorlie during the quarter, and activity will continue to ramp-up in the December 2024 quarter (Q2 FY25).

United States
As previously advised, a permitting issue has arisen related to wastewater management which affects the Seadrift site. The earthworks which were previously planned to commence in 2024 are on hold while the permitting issue is considered.


$A Millions:

AGM will be held on 27 November 2024 at 10am Sydney time at The Mint, 10 Macquarie St, Sydney. Shareholders will also be able to attend the meeting via a virtual platform. The Notice of Meeting is available at Lynas’ website www.lynasrareearths.com or at our share registry’s website www.boardroomlimited.com.au/agm/lynas.

Chart update:

Not holding
Have traded

Have a great day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon

What analysts are saying:

Lynas Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT A$7.30
Lynas Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT A$7.50

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[finicky]

Australia’s first rare earths processing plant opens​

Australia's first rare earths processing plant opens

Lynas Rare Earths has officially opened its state-of-the-art rare earths processing facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.

www.australianmining.com.au

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
Chart update:
3-minute chart

Daily Chart

 

[rcw1]

Chart update:
3 minute chart

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon

Snapshot of operations in 2019 and present day, cited within CEO AGM Presentation 27/11/24 (quite impressive set up really, so far ahead of competitors, except for China).

Chart update:

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Good afternoon

Snapshot of operations in 2019 and present day, cited within CEO AGM Presentation 27/11/24 (quite impressive set up really, so far ahead of competitors, except for China).

View attachment 188989
Chart update:
View attachment 188988

Kind regards
rcw1

Any idea how closely rare earths companies are tracking the NdPr price?

I've got a pretty big feeling China are playing with it a bit.

I've got my toe in the water with MEI and wondering what's holding it back.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening @Sean K

Any idea how closely rare earths companies are tracking the NdPr price?

A strong benchmark for production levels and what quantity syphoned off into market.

I've got a pretty big feeling China are playing with it a bit.

100% and some bloke, certainly an issue for Western governments.

I've got my toe in the water with MEI and wondering what's holding it back.

Not entirely sure about MEI not one of rcw1's trading stocks ... yet ... and don't know much about it

View attachment 189019

Not real flash but seen worse ....

Have a great week.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
Chart update; some good movement north ....

3 Minute Chart

 

[rcw1]

Good evening

Chart update
Hourly

Holding
Have a very nice night

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
Quarterly published today …

Lynas’s trading update warned investors of challenging market conditions with weak December quarter will continue for the three months to end-March due to continuing subdued inside-China demand and the extended lunar new year holiday period.

“Rare earths market pricing continued at low levels, ” the group told investors in its quarterly update on Friday. “While there was a small improvement in the NdPr market price at the start of the quarter, pricing returned to prior quarter pricing levels in December 2024.” The average NdPr market price was $51/kg excluding VAT during the quarter.
Second quarter gross sales revenues and sales receipts rose to $141.2m and $145.9m, respectively, higher on the previous quarter and the prior corresponding period, reflecting a focus on high value strategic customers and product mix and benefitting from favourable foreign exchange rates,
But second-quarter total rare earth oxide (REO) production at 2617 tonnes and NdPr output of 1292 tonnes was lower than Lynas had planned, especially due to technical issues with impurities in the MREC feedstock that required additional treatment. Preventative 10-year maintenance works were undertaken while Malaysia’s cracking & leaching facilities were shutdown in December.
The update comes as the group ramped up pressure on the Albanese government for a chemical plant in Western Australia – close to its new $800m rare earths cracking and leaching plant at Kalgoorlie.

SP down 5.15% at time of post.

Holding

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Dona Ferentes]

$6.97

.
"Capital expenditure of $267.0m was invested into Major Projects during the half year. Key growth project milestones achieved included successfully commissioning and integrating Stage 1 of the Mt Weld Expansion project into operations, ramping up production at the Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility and the official opening of the Kalgoorlie Facility.

“Significant milestones were also achieved at Lynas Malaysia, including commissioning and operating the new MREC receival facility, operating the new SX flowsheet and installing new equipment in Product Finishing. Substantial progress was made on installation of the new Dyand Tb separation circuit, with commissioning and ramp up expected in mid-CY2025.

“During the period, we were pleased to announce a strong uplift in the Mt Weld mineral resource and ore reserve. The 2024 Mt Weld Mineral Resource and Reserve Update supports a 20+ year life of mine at the target 12,000 tpa NdPr finished product production capacity. This was the outcome of a multi-year exploration program that included over 84,000 metres of drilling and reported significant increases in Mineral Resource, Mineral Reserve and contained Heavy Rare Earth elements. The updated Statement provides confidence to our customers that we can continue to meet their needs for responsibly produced rare earth materials into the future. Our capital programme provides confidence we can process these materials efficiently and sustainably.

“The Rare Earths market continues to be subject to complex influences. Conditions which may support improved market conditions include demand growth which continues in key sectors, proposed changes to the regulatory environment in China, and sustained support for supply chain development from key governments."

 

[Sean K]

Rare earths seemed to be a good trade a couple of years ago. TREO along with graphite, nickel and copper etc were all going to go nuts. They did for a while but then somehow the price of some of these resources miraculously caved in.

We shouldn't underestimate what China's been doing behind the scenes to affect prices and kill some our industries, especially junior developers and explorers.

Grand geostrategic plans at play from China playing the long game.

This will go on until they do something significant enough to be shut off from Western markets. They must know this will occur when they attack Taiwan. Going to be interesting to see it unfold in the next 5 years or so.

China dominates critical minerals production, especially the 17 rare earth elements. The nation accounts not only for 70 per cent of all global rare earths extraction, but 87 per cent of all processing, including 100 per cent of dysprosium and terbium, classed as “heavy” rare earths.

This stranglehold has vexed Lynas and US counterpart MP Materials. A rise in Chinese rare earths production quotas and a deceleration in electric vehicle sales growth have depressed prices.

Lynas on Wednesday posted a net profit of $5.9 million in the first half of 2024-25, down from $39.5 million and undershooting analyst forecasts for $32.2 million. The cost of sales rose 29 per cent and no dividend will be paid.

 

[rcw1]

Rare earths seemed to be a good trade a couple of years ago. TREO along with graphite, nickel and copper etc were all going to go nuts. They did for a while but then somehow the price of some of these resources miraculously caved in.

We shouldn't underestimate what China's been doing behind the scenes to affect prices and kill some our industries, especially junior developers and explorers.

Grand geostrategic plans at play from China playing the long game.

This will go on until they do something significant enough to be shut off from Western markets. They must know this will occur when they attack Taiwan. Going to be interesting to see it unfold in the next 5 years or so.

View attachment 194281

China dominates critical minerals production, especially the 17 rare earth elements. The nation accounts not only for 70 per cent of all global rare earths extraction, but 87 per cent of all processing, including 100 per cent of dysprosium and terbium, classed as “heavy” rare earths.

This stranglehold has vexed Lynas and US counterpart MP Materials. A rise in Chinese rare earths production quotas and a deceleration in electric vehicle sales growth have depressed prices.

Lynas on Wednesday posted a net profit of $5.9 million in the first half of 2024-25, down from $39.5 million and undershooting analyst forecasts for $32.2 million. The cost of sales rose 29 per cent and no dividend will be paid.

Good evening
Note that Gina and Bianca have increased their equity in LYC from 7.14% to 8.21% ... most interesting indeed (see attached).

LYC disclosed sometime back that there would be some quarterly pain till March 2025. Shareholders were also well aware of the 'China factor'.

For mine, just rcw1 opinion:
LYC are attempting to break the stranglehold by China in dominating REE world markets. This will take years and has been on their agenda for least 4 years. It is planned and deliberate. The company got some 'ticker'.

China has already thrown everything at LYC except for the kitchen sink. LYC has been most resilient, and Amanda has done really well in the leading LYC out of the doldrums and into the 21st century, moreover, making sure that there are suitable systems and strategies in place strong enough to weather that Chinese storm.

Amanda and her crew would be well aware of risks in involved.

Paying no dividend was a decision by Amanda and her board to place profit back into the company to assist it becoming more resilient to external / world influences and much stronger to defend itself. There will come a time when shareholders will be rewarded.

Mark's tone in the AFR article is at best an exaggerated assortment of information already widely known which does not reveal the background behind LYC's previous decision making. rcw1 found it most disappointing.

NdPr demand continues to grow, however market prices have weakened:
Supply side pressure resulted in average China Domestic NdPr price (ex-vat) decreasing from US$56/kg in December 2023 to US$49/kg in December 2024 (cited in LYC Announcement 27/02/25 p6) see attached.

Holding

Kind regards
rcw1