Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Dump it Here

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Believe it or not - this story is 100% true
Picture this: I find myself a thousand kilometres away from home on Christmas Eve when I meet a man named Andrew who sits down next to me with a beer in hand. We start chatting, and it becomes clear we have a shared passion.

Andrew, is a charismatic individual with a deep love for gambling, Cards and Casinos are his passion. He talks about Cards and how certain people consistently make it to the final table, where the big money is at stake. Curious, I ask him why he thinks this happens. His answer is simple and profound: “Those are the people who know what they’re doing.”

Andrew delves into his life as a semi-professional gambler and his aspirations to venture into trading. He said he had been reading online articles and had noticed striking parallels between his passion for gambling and the world of trading.

To my surprise, Andrew begins quoting one of my articles "word for word". He's been following the “Dump it here” thread, even though he's not a member. He goes on to mention "but the guy has gone to the dark side recently," which he didn't understand.

I share my own experiences as a former bookmaker and discuss my brother’s success as a professional gambler. As our conversation unfolds, I reveal that I am the author of the articles he has been reading. I gladly spend the next three hours answering his insightful questions.

It's incredible how quickly a bond can form when you discover a shared interest. This encounter is a powerful reminder that the world is teeming with fascinating and knowledgeable individuals.

In conclusion, when you find a “common interest,” forging a friendship comes naturally.

Skate.
 
Skate said:
Believe it or not - this story is 100% true
Picture this: I find myself a thousand kilometres away from home on Christmas Eve when I meet a man named Andrew who sits down next to me with a beer in hand. We start chatting, and it becomes clear we have a shared passion.

Andrew, is a charismatic individual with a deep love for gambling, Cards and Casinos are his passion. He talks about Cards and how certain people consistently make it to the final table, where the big money is at stake. Curious, I ask him why he thinks this happens. His answer is simple and profound: “Those are the people who know what they’re doing.”

Andrew delves into his life as a semi-professional gambler and his aspirations to venture into trading. He said he had been reading online articles and had noticed striking parallels between his passion for gambling and the world of trading.

To my surprise, Andrew begins quoting one of my articles "word for word". He's been following the “Dump it here” thread, even though he's not a member. He goes on to mention "but the guy has gone to the dark side recently," which he didn't understand.

I share my own experiences as a former bookmaker and discuss my brother’s success as a professional gambler. As our conversation unfolds, I reveal that I am the author of the articles he has been reading. I gladly spend the next three hours answering his insightful questions.

It's incredible how quickly a bond can form when you discover a shared interest. This encounter is a powerful reminder that the world is teeming with fascinating and knowledgeable individuals.

In conclusion, when you find a “common interest,” forging a friendship comes naturally.

Skate.
Click to expand...


So a couple of observations:

(i) trading and gambling are essentially the same thing.

(ii) fundamental analysis is different.

(iii) they do share one thing in common.

For both it is necessary to undertake study to obtain knowledge so that a specific form of analysis can be undertaken. This however is not sufficient to guarantee success.

The additional element of luck is required for both forms of engagement with the market to be successful. Same with gambling of course.

It is the factor of time that is profoundly different between the two forms of analysis. Technical engagement (assuming discipline) will tell you very quickly in some instances when your luck is not sufficient. Fundamentals will not.

Why did LEH go under and GS and MS survive? Basically just luck. LEH was first to collapse and few politicians understood the problem. Result, LEH gone, bailouts for GS & MS (Citi, BAC and all the rest) once they understood what was at stake.

Within the financial markets there exists: (i) equity capital and (ii) debt capital.

In a problem, which form of capital receives the bailout? Debt capital 100% everytime. Equity capital can be wiped out. Not so debt. Governments sit on debt capital. Not equity capital.

Chasing this equity bull market is of course profitable until it is not. The trader's ability to leave is a very valuable option. The B&H equity player will in a market break, incur acute distress. Luck will determine whether, in time, that resolves into profits.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
So a couple of observations:

(i) trading and gambling are essentially the same thing.

(ii) fundamental analysis is different.

(iii) they do share one thing in common.

For both it is necessary to undertake study to obtain knowledge so that a specific form of analysis can be undertaken. This however is not sufficient to guarantee success.

The additional element of luck is required for both forms of engagement with the market to be successful. Same with gambling of course.

It is the factor of time that is profoundly different between the two forms of analysis. Technical engagement (assuming discipline) will tell you very quickly in some instances when your luck is not sufficient. Fundamentals will not.

Why did LEH go under and GS and MS survive? Basically just luck. LEH was first to collapse and few politicians understood the problem. Result, LEH gone, bailouts for GS & MS (Citi, BAC and all the rest) once they understood what was at stake.

Within the financial markets there exists: (i) equity capital and (ii) debt capital.

In a problem, which form of capital receives the bailout? Debt capital 100% everytime. Equity capital can be wiped out. Not so debt. Governments sit on debt capital. Not equity capital.

Chasing this equity bull market is of course profitable until it is not. The trader's ability to leave is a very valuable option. The B&H equity player will in a market break, incur acute distress. Luck will determine whether, in time, that resolves into profits.

jog on
duc
Click to expand...

@ducati916, once again you've raised several interesting points. Firstly, you're correct in saying that trading and gambling share some similarities. Both involve risk-taking, and both require a certain level of knowledge and skill to be successful. However, there are also some key differences between the two. However, luck also plays a significant role in both, as there are always factors beyond our control that can affect the outcome.

Regarding the difference between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. I'm still in the camp of technical analysis because it can provide quicker feedback on the success or failure of a trade, whereas fundamental analysis can take longer to yield results.

Skate.
 
I hope it is OK for me to Dump this here?
I found it Brilliant but a huge challenge on my Brain Cells

Be prepared to be shocked, amazed and bewildered


XYZ Yacht.GIF
 
UMike said:
over $150,000 (tax free) per year without depreciating the value of your investment.

To retire on I think this is more than most need.
Click to expand...

Ha , someone had to do it ! So .... I'm not the only stickybeak on this forum, Mr. Skate . My first guess was 200 big ones but was too embarrassed , to ask what your " living wage " might be.
 
dyna said:
Ha , someone had to do it ! So .... I'm not the only stickybeak on this forum, Mr. Skate . My first guess was 200 big ones but was too embarrassed , to ask what your " living wage " might be.
Click to expand...
well i am the frugal type and approaching 70

i reckon for a standalone retirement nest egg you will need at least $2 million because inflation will continue to eat you up , and that is if you stay relatively healthy ( or fall into a disability pension )



'living wage' is the issue some have cheap rates/rent , some have a small efficient car , etc etc , some billionaires are doing it hard because they live the 'rich life-style '
 
dyna said:
Ha , someone had to do it ! So .... I'm not the only stickybeak on this forum, Mr. Skate . My first guess was 200 big ones but was too embarrassed , to ask what your " living wage " might be.
Click to expand...

The concept of a living wage is intriguing, and the amount is highly subjective. @UMike ’s comment about “over $150,000 (tax-free) per year without depreciating the value of your investment” appears reasonable initially, but it’s crucial to delve into the details.

This sum is indeed significant, and it exceeds what most people require for a comfortable retirement. However, it's essential to consider the variability in the cost of living, as @divs4ever pointed out. A living wage is relative to one’s circumstances, and the amount needed for a comfortable retirement can vary dramatically based on location, lifestyle choices, and many other factors.

@dyna, while I initially used “living wage” as a universal term that everyone could relate to, it’s crucial to remember that the cost of living can vary significantly. Therefore, it’s essential to define more precisely what constitutes a living wage, particularly in the context of retirement. While $150,000 per year may be adequate for some, it may not be for others, especially those with higher living expenses.

To ensure everyone has the opportunity for a comfortable retirement, regardless of their financial circumstances, it's important to consider various factors and tailor a living wage to individual needs.

Skate.
 
Instead of relating how bad things are according to one's own (relatively small) personal world, mull over this data and determine where you sit on a comparative basis.

From investment income plus my retirement pension from Australian Super, it appears I sit in the 5th quintile.

"At $288,311 in 2021-22, average equivalised gross disposable income per household for the top quintile was 5.3 times as high as that for the lowest income quintile ($54,134). Net worth (wealth) per household at $3.2 million for the highest quintile was 5.9 times as high as that for the lowest quintile ($551,460)."

www.aihw.gov.au

Income and income support

A range of Centrelink payments, administered through the Department of Human Services, are available to support families with their work and family responsibilities. Family Assistance payments...
www.aihw.gov.au www.aihw.gov.au
 
Belli said:
At $288,311 in 2021-22, average equivalised gross disposable income per household for the top quintile was 5.3 times as high as that for the lowest income quintile ($54,134). Net worth (wealth) per household at $3.2 million for the highest quintile was 5.9 times as high as that for the lowest quintile ($551,460).
Click to expand...

@Belli, I've arrived at a crossroads in my financial journey, making a clean break from my passion for trading last week. The primary catalyst for this shift was an overactive mind, leading me to pivot towards investing as a way to scale back my involvement.

The $150k in dividends and franking credits mentioned by @UMike serve as a pleasant reminder that there is an income stream with little effort. With the addition of Capital Gains along the way, it offers an additional benefit. However, I'm grappling with two primary concerns: (1) The sufficiency of this yearly amount of $150k and (2) My ability to cope with my change in focus.

The weekly average @UMike projected equates to $2,884, while welcomed, it falls well short of my trading goals. I have aimed to achieve a weekly average between $10k and $15k. With 26 weeks of trading "done and dusted" this financial year, I'm pleased to see that my trading average comfortably exceeds the upper limit.

I'm weighing the pros and cons of both options (Trading versus Investing). Having made a clean break from trading has allowed me to step back and recharge, but it's difficult to forego the thrill of the market and the potential for greater profits.

Ultimately, my decision will depend on my priorities and how I wish to allocate my time. I'm taking the time to carefully deliberate and weigh my options, ensuring that my choice aligns with my long-term personal aspirations.

Skate.
 
Yup. I get it. I know of people who have the same dilemma. From what they have informed me, the majority of their capital (90% or whatever) are in passive, mainly index funds and/or LICs, with the remainder allocated towards trading. However, I think for them trading is close to being a hobby in order to to scratch an itch.
 
Skate said:
@Belli, I've arrived at a crossroads in my financial journey, making a clean break from my passion for trading last week. The primary catalyst for this shift was an overactive mind, leading me to pivot towards investing as a way to scale back my involvement.

The $150k in dividends and franking credits mentioned by @UMike serve as a pleasant reminder that there is an income stream with little effort. With the addition of Capital Gains along the way, it offers an additional benefit. However, I'm grappling with two primary concerns: (1) The sufficiency of this yearly amount of $150k and (2) My ability to cope with my change in focus.

The weekly average @UMike projected equates to $2,884, while welcomed, it falls well short of my trading goals. I have aimed to achieve a weekly average between $10k and $15k. With 26 weeks of trading "done and dusted" this financial year, I'm pleased to see that my trading average comfortably exceeds the upper limit.

I'm weighing the pros and cons of both options (Trading versus Investing). Having made a clean break from trading has allowed me to step back and recharge, but it's difficult to forego the thrill of the market and the potential for greater profits.

Ultimately, my decision will depend on my priorities and how I wish to allocate my time. I'm taking the time to carefully deliberate and weigh my options, ensuring that my choice aligns with my long-term personal aspirations.

Skate.
Click to expand...
Good afternoon Skate
Truth be told rcw1 was shocked, fell off the rcw1 chair .... - investing now ... hmmm the lad has gone over to the darkside; had a complete brain fart ....

The thing is though, it is nobody's business except your own as to what is intended with the Skate hard earned. rcw1 sincerely wishes you all the very best in any future endeavors.

Skate: The primary catalyst for this shift was an overactive mind, leading me to pivot towards investing as a way to scale back my involvement.
rcw1: A couple of rcw1 punting mates have done just that, probably 18 months or so ago. rcw1 don't talk to them no more!!! ha ha ha ha just jokes...

Skate: I'm weighing the pros and cons of both options (Trading versus Investing). Having made a clean break from trading has allowed me to step back and recharge, but it's difficult to forego the thrill of the market and the potential for greater profits.
rcw1: If rcw1 were to be so bold as suggest, there is a 3rd option. Do both, but don't apply as much pressure on yourself with the trading construct. Anyways, you would be successful at whatever methodology you decide upon.

You are a long-time retired bloke.

Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Belli said:
Instead of relating how bad things are according to one's own (relatively small) personal world, mull over this data and determine where you sit on a comparative basis.

From investment income plus my retirement pension from Australian Super, it appears I sit in the 5th quintile.

"At $288,311 in 2021-22, average equivalised gross disposable income per household for the top quintile was 5.3 times as high as that for the lowest income quintile ($54,134). Net worth (wealth) per household at $3.2 million for the highest quintile was 5.9 times as high as that for the lowest quintile ($551,460)."

www.aihw.gov.au

Income and income support

A range of Centrelink payments, administered through the Department of Human Services, are available to support families with their work and family responsibilities. Family Assistance payments...
www.aihw.gov.au www.aihw.gov.au
Click to expand...
now the problem with calculating what will set you up for the future ( in retirement ) is trying to guess your future expenses and your future returns/income ( after any taxes ) ,

as i found out in my investing ( accumulation ) adventure is your health might become a big problem so would be one of the first to suggest every nearly 40 year old to go and get a FULL medical check-up , so you can prepare for any gradual health declines well in advance .. or if in near perfect health prepare a strategy for living to 100 ( and beyond )
 
Belli said:
Yup. I get it. I know of people who have the same dilemma. From what they have informed me, the majority of their capital (90% or whatever) are in passive, mainly index funds and/or LICs, with the remainder allocated towards trading. However, I think for them trading is close to being a hobby in order to to scratch an itch.
Click to expand...
which IMO is not a bad thing , they are keeping an interest ( and being educated ) with their investments ( and Super funds ) i would rather that , than get a phone call ( or text message ) saying your retirement funds have been wiped out/frozen/forced into liquidation , and you had been calmly living out your life in ignorant bliss
 
My view is it's the dumbest thing they can do. Why? Temptation to expand it.

As for the rest of the garbage you post, pencil in for 24 December 2024 a prostate cancer diagnosis, 15 March 2025 gangrene in left leg and 28 August 2025 death.

On freezing of industry super;
 

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Belli said:
My view is it's the dumbest thing they can do. Why? Temptation to expand it.

As for the rest of the garbage you post, pencil in for 24 December 2024 a prostate cancer diagnosis, 15 March 2025 gangrene in left leg and 28 August 2025 death.

On freezing of industry super;
Click to expand...
given the recent trend is 'tin( actually aluminum) -foil hatters ' getting it correct often in the most outrageous places .. like inflation

laugh at your own risk , fate has an interesting sense of humour
 
Skate said:
@ducati916, once again you've raised several interesting points. Firstly, you're correct in saying that trading and gambling share some similarities. Both involve risk-taking, and both require a certain level of knowledge and skill to be successful. However, there are also some key differences between the two. However, luck also plays a significant role in both, as there are always factors beyond our control that can affect the outcome.

Regarding the difference between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. I'm still in the camp of technical analysis because it can provide quicker feedback on the success or failure of a trade, whereas fundamental analysis can take longer to yield results.

Skate.
Click to expand...
I so want to disagree that investing in gambling. TA or trend trading definitely is. Maybe even my Bottom picking.
However, You lose on red.... Go bust trying to get to 21....... It's all gone. Generally trading you still have a percentage in the game.
Importantly Trading and gambling require a strategy and risk mitigation to be successful.

I also want more WDS but probably too stubborn. Under $30 or i'll stick with the amount I got. Still can't come to terms with almost selling out aiming for around $40 about a month ago.
 
Belli said:
Instead of relating how bad things are according to one's own (relatively small) personal world, mull over this data and determine where you sit on a comparative basis.

From investment income plus my retirement pension from Australian Super, it appears I sit in the 5th quintile.

"At $288,311 in 2021-22, average equivalised gross disposable income per household for the top quintile was 5.3 times as high as that for the lowest income quintile ($54,134). Net worth (wealth) per household at $3.2 million for the highest quintile was 5.9 times as high as that for the lowest quintile ($551,460)."

www.aihw.gov.au

Income and income support

A range of Centrelink payments, administered through the Department of Human Services, are available to support families with their work and family responsibilities. Family Assistance payments...
www.aihw.gov.au www.aihw.gov.au
Click to expand...
I am 4th quartile for both income and assets...but I work, so you appear to be in a very favourable position Belli.
 

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