Dump it Here

[Belli]

I am 4th quartile for both income and assets...but I work, so you appear to be in a very favourable position Belli.

Nothing special. I prefer to live a more simple lifestyle and always have. My late wife and I didn't care what others had or wanted. It resulted in having a higher savings rate than most which went into investing for over four decades. I still invest funds but also distribute money to my children. They are going to get it eventually but I see no reason not to have some of it now.

 

[Skate]

I still invest funds but also distribute money to my children. They are going to get it eventually but I see no reason not to have some of it now.

@Belli, I picked you as one of the good guys and now your post confirms it.

Skate.

 

[Belli]

I cannot see the reason to gather funds and assets unless there is a purpose to it. To do otherwise is shallow to me. I figure where there are available funds which are surplus to my needs, the rational decision is to help my family if possible in order to make their lives easier so why not do it?

Others have different motives and drivers.

 

[ducati916]

I so want to disagree that investing in gambling. TA or trend trading definitely is. Maybe even my Bottom picking.
However, You lose on red.... Go bust trying to get to 21....... It's all gone. Generally trading you still have a percentage in the game.
Importantly Trading and gambling require a strategy and risk mitigation to be successful.

I also want more WDS but probably too stubborn. Under $30 or i'll stick with the amount I got. Still can't come to terms with almost selling out aiming for around $40 about a month ago.

Ok, I have time.

You disagree that investing is gambling. On what basis?

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

I cannot see the reason to gather funds and assets unless there is a purpose to it. To do otherwise is shallow to me. I figure where there are available funds which are surplus to my needs, the rational decision is to help my family if possible in order to make their lives easier so why not do it?

Others have different motives and drivers.

Hey @Belli, we are on the same page.

Skate.

 

[UMike]

Ok, I have time.

You disagree that investing is gambling. On what basis?

jog on
duc

I don't have time.

• #9,884 - We essentially agree anyway.

Life is gambling to a large degree. (probably why losers want everything controlled and SAFE)

 

[dyna]

At $288,311 in 2021-22, average equivalised gross disposable income per household for the top quintile was 5.3 times as high as that for the lowest income quintile ($54,134). Net worth (wealth) per household at $3.2 million for the highest quintile was 5.9 times as high as that for the lowest quintile ($551,460)."

Can't see the other 4 gross disposable income quintiles ( Does " disposable " mean , AFTER tax ? I don't know ... )
Had to look them up on the ABS , here they are : Financial year 2021-22 .
First Quintile $ 54,134
Second $ 86,689
Third $ 117,495
Fourth $ 154,434
Fifth $ 288,311

 

[Skate]

Life is gambling to a large degree. Importantly Trading and gambling require a strategy and risk mitigation to be successful.

Building wealth versus entertainment
Investing and gambling have different definitions and involve different levels of risk, uncertainty, and control. Investing typically involves a long-term strategy and requires careful research, and analysis, to make informed decisions. Gambling, on the other hand, is the act of placing bets with uncertain outcomes as a form of entertainment. Gambling is certainly not a reliable way to build wealth for most people. @rcw1 may disagree.

The two main differences between investing and gambling
Investors can manage risk whereas gambling, on the other hand, involves a much higher level of risk, as the outcome is highly uncertain and often beyond anyone's control. Investors may hold onto their investments for years, while gambling typically involves short-term bets with an instant adrenalin rush.

Professional punters play a different game
However, it's important to note that professional punters play a different game. They have the knowledge, experience, and resources to make informed decisions and manage risk effectively. With first-hand experience, I can assure you that professional punters operate in a different realm than the average person.

Skate.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

I look at Gambling vs Investment in quite a different way

I believe that If you are a Fundamentalist and know very little about FA you are a GAMBLER
I believe that If you are a Technical Analyst and know very little about TA you are also a GAMBLER

In Summary I don't think there is a Know-It- All in either Discapline

But then there is always the Fantasists who believe " She'll be right in the Long Term if we can only live a long life
They call themselves INVESTORS

I'm Sorry, but I call them GAMBLERS also

Salute and Stay Well

 

[Skate]

I look at Gambling vs Investment in quite a different way

I believe that If you are a Fundamentalist and know very little about FA you are a GAMBLER
I believe that If you are a Technical Analyst and know very little about TA you are also a GAMBLER

In Summary I don't think there is a Know-It- All in either Discapline

But then there is always the Fantasists who believe " She'll be right in the Long Term if we can only live a long life
They call themselves INVESTORS

I'm Sorry, but I call them GAMBLERS also

@Captain_Chaza, the distinction between gambling and investing is not always clear-cut and can be subjective. The line between gambling and investing can often be blurred, and it often hinges on the individual’s level of knowledge and risk tolerance. While some may argue that investing is a calculated endeavour with the potential for long-term returns, others may perceive it as a form of gambling due to the inherent risks involved.

Your perspective is thought-provoking as usual and invites further reflection. It's intriguing to consider how individual perspectives shape this evaluation, fostering a different understanding of the complexities inherent in financial decision-making.

Skate.

 

[farmerge]

@Belli, I picked you as one of the good guys and now your post confirms it.

Skate.

Mr Skate, Sir I have been watching and reading your words of wisdom since i joined ASF.
As of now I would like you to end your posts with "Professor Skate".
A title I feel you justly deserve.
ps I can'r bestow Lord or Sir because that was given to my old mate Mahail in the Commsec days.

 

[ducati916]

1. Building wealth versus entertainment
Investing and gambling have different definitions and involve different levels of risk, uncertainty, and control. Investing typically involves a long-term strategy and requires careful research, and analysis, to make informed decisions. Gambling, on the other hand, is the act of placing bets with uncertain outcomes as a form of entertainment. Gambling is certainly not a reliable way to build wealth for most people. @rcw1 may disagree.

2. The two main differences between investing and gambling
Investors can manage risk whereas gambling, on the other hand, involves a much higher level of risk, as the outcome is highly uncertain and often beyond anyone's control. Investors may hold onto their investments for years, while gambling typically involves short-term bets with an instant adrenalin rush.

3. Professional punters play a different game
However, it's important to note that professional punters play a different game. They have the knowledge, experience, and resources to make informed decisions and manage risk effectively. With first-hand experience, I can assure you that professional punters operate in a different realm than the average person.

Skate.

If we are going to discuss this rationally, an apples to apples comparison is required. We are not comparing participants. We are comparing the game itself.

So let's look at some of the major components of both games.

1. Uncertainty. Both contain uncertain outcomes because both a reliant on the future, which is unknown.

2. Probabilities. Gambling is more certain here as there are clearly defined outcomes. A die has 6 sides, 52 cards in a pack, the roulette wheel has X numbers, etc. Investing has far more potential outcomes or risks.

3. Participants. Both will have their professional and amateur participants. You are more likely to be able to find a sucker in gambling than in investing/trading.

4. Control. Both are equivalent. Place your bet and wait on the outcome.

5. Edge. This is the key variable in both. If you have a true edge, that is the game you should play. I have through the years heard (and given) many arguments on an edge for investing/trading. Most are spurious. Diligent analysis has more relevance in what not to do/buy than what to do/buy, particularly when discussing fundamentals. A mathematical edge is best. Card counting in blackjack being a good example.

5. Emotional control. Which game provides the most intense challenge to character and discipline?

6. Extrinsic influences. For gambling, there are few if any (hot tips). For investing/trading, you are bombarded daily with reports, tips, news stories, TV, etc. Some are helpful some of the time. Some not so much. Noise. Noise is far more of an issue in trading/investing than in gambling.

7. Money at risk. A bit of a generalisation here, but 'most' will risk less gambling than in the market. There will be degenerates that bet their house on the turn of a card, but on average, more is risked in markets than gambling. This is to do with perception. Gambling is frowned upon as irresponsible and should only be entertainment. Markets are considered an 'investment' a positive undertaking, a career choice. Markets are degenerate casinos posing as bastions of capitalism.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

If we are going to discuss this rationally, an apples to apples comparison is required. We are not comparing participants. We are comparing the game itself.

So let's look at some of the major components of both games.

1. Uncertainty. Both contain uncertain outcomes because both a reliant on the future, which is unknown.

2. Probabilities. Gambling is more certain here as there are clearly defined outcomes. A die has 6 sides, 52 cards in a pack, the roulette wheel has X numbers, etc. Investing has far more potential outcomes or risks.

3. Participants. Both will have their professional and amateur participants. You are more likely to be able to find a sucker in gambling than in investing/trading.

4. Control. Both are equivalent. Place your bet and wait on the outcome.

5. Edge. This is the key variable in both. If you have a true edge, that is the game you should play. I have through the years heard (and given) many arguments on an edge for investing/trading. Most are spurious. Diligent analysis has more relevance in what not to do/buy than what to do/buy, particularly when discussing fundamentals. A mathematical edge is best. Card counting in blackjack being a good example.

6. Emotional control. Which game provides the most intense challenge to character and discipline?

7. Extrinsic influences. For gambling, there are few if any (hot tips). For investing/trading, you are bombarded daily with reports, tips, news stories, TV, etc. Some are helpful some of the time. Some not so much. Noise. Noise is far more of an issue in trading/investing than in gambling.

8. Money at risk. A bit of a generalisation here, but 'most' will risk less gambling than in the market. There will be degenerates that bet their house on the turn of a card, but on average, more is risked in markets than gambling. This is to do with perception. Gambling is frowned upon as irresponsible and should only be entertainment. Markets are considered an 'investment' a positive undertaking, a career choice. Markets are degenerate casinos posing as bastions of capitalism.

jog on
duc

@ducati916, I appreciate your attempt to compare gambling and investing/trading in a rational manner. However, I would like to offer some counterpoints to your arguments, playing the "Devil's Advocate"

1. Uncertainty
While it's true that both gambling and investing/trading involve uncertain outcomes, the nature of uncertainty is different in each activity. In gambling, the outcomes are inherently uncertain due to the randomness of events, whereas in investing/trading, uncertainty arises from the complexities of the market and the difficulty of predicting future events.

2. Probabilities
You argue that gambling has more certain probabilities due to the clearly defined outcomes. However, I would argue that investing/trading has more predictable outcomes in the long run, as historical data and trends can provide valuable insights into future performance. In contrast, gambling outcomes are largely independent of past events.

3. Participants
While both activities have professional and amateur participants, I would argue that investing/trading has a higher proportion of informed and skilled participants compared to gambling. This is because investing/trading requires a deeper understanding of finance, economics, and market dynamics, which tends to attract more sophisticated participants.

4. Control
You argue that both activities have equivalent control, as participants simply place their bets and wait for the outcome. However, I would argue that investing/trading requires more active management, as participants need to constantly monitor their portfolios and adjust their strategies in response to changing market conditions.

5. Edge
You argue that a mathematical edge is best in both activities. However, I would argue that a mathematical edge is more easily achievable in investing/trading due to the availability of historical data and the ability to analyse market trends. In contrast, gambling outcomes are largely independent of past events, making it more difficult to develop a reliable mathematical edge.

6. Emotional control
You argue that gambling provides a greater challenge to character and discipline. However, I would argue that investing/trading requires greater emotional control, as participants need to navigate market volatility and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations.

7. Extrinsic influences
You argue that gambling has fewer extrinsic influences compared to investing/trading. However, I would argue that both activities are subject to external influences, such as market trends, economic conditions, and regulatory changes.

8. Money at risk
You argue that gambling typically involves less money at risk compared to investing/trading. However, I would argue that the amount of money at risk is a personal choice and can vary greatly in both activities.

In conclusion, while there are some valid points in your comparison of gambling and investing/trading, I believe that there are also some important differences to consider. Both activities involve uncertain outcomes and require skill and strategy, but the nature of uncertainty, the availability of data, and the level of emotional control required differ in each activity.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

As we welcome the New Year
I've taken a moment to reflect on my trading journey over the past 26 weeks. I'm proud to say that my trading days have been halted for now, and I'm excited to share some key takeaways and insights from this period.

Firstly, my portfolio has seen a significant increase in value over the past 26 weeks compared to the previous financial year, with a tidy sum returned. Adapting to changing market conditions has been a key factor in my success. With ongoing geopolitical and political tensions, the markets have been incredibly volatile, and it's been crucial to stay responsive. Risk management has also been my focus.

November and December 2023 were particularly strong months for me, with both delivering impressive returns. My portfolio surged higher in November, and December saw even stronger growth. As we move into the New Year, I'm saddened that I won't be able to build on the progress I've made over the past 26 weeks. However, I'll continue to stay focused on my investment objectives and gradually build my portfolio over time.

My trading has closed for 2023-2024
The 2023-2024 trading year started a little bumpy but found its legs from November on.




Comparisons 2022-2023 results
Last year was a fantastic result but I had to endure some pain to get to the 30th of June 2023.




Interest
I've been working hard to develop a long-term investment strategy and after the market closes for the year, I'll share a progress report on my transition from active trading to investing. While some might find it dull, I'm hoping there is some interest.

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

@ducati916, I appreciate your attempt to compare gambling and investing/trading in a rational manner. However, I would like to offer some counterpoints to your arguments, playing the "Devil's Advocate"

1. Uncertainty
While it's true that both gambling and investing/trading involve uncertain outcomes, the nature of uncertainty is different in each activity. In gambling, the outcomes are inherently uncertain due to the randomness of events, whereas in investing/trading, uncertainty arises from the complexities of the market and the difficulty of predicting future events.

2. Probabilities
You argue that gambling has more certain probabilities due to the clearly defined outcomes. However, I would argue that investing/trading has more predictable outcomes in the long run, as historical data and trends can provide valuable insights into future performance. In contrast, gambling outcomes are largely independent of past events.

3. Participants
While both activities have professional and amateur participants, I would argue that investing/trading has a higher proportion of informed and skilled participants compared to gambling. This is because investing/trading requires a deeper understanding of finance, economics, and market dynamics, which tends to attract more sophisticated participants.

4. Control
You argue that both activities have equivalent control, as participants simply place their bets and wait for the outcome. However, I would argue that investing/trading requires more active management, as participants need to constantly monitor their portfolios and adjust their strategies in response to changing market conditions.

5. Edge
You argue that a mathematical edge is best in both activities. However, I would argue that a mathematical edge is more easily achievable in investing/trading due to the availability of historical data and the ability to analyse market trends. In contrast, gambling outcomes are largely independent of past events, making it more difficult to develop a reliable mathematical edge.

6. Emotional control
You argue that gambling provides a greater challenge to character and discipline. However, I would argue that investing/trading requires greater emotional control, as participants need to navigate market volatility and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations.

7. Extrinsic influences
You argue that gambling has fewer extrinsic influences compared to investing/trading. However, I would argue that both activities are subject to external influences, such as market trends, economic conditions, and regulatory changes.

8. Money at risk
You argue that gambling typically involves less money at risk compared to investing/trading. However, I would argue that the amount of money at risk is a personal choice and can vary greatly in both activities.

In conclusion, while there are some valid points in your comparison of gambling and investing/trading, I believe that there are also some important differences to consider. Both activities involve uncertain outcomes and require skill and strategy, but the nature of uncertainty, the availability of data, and the level of emotional control required differ in each activity.

Skate.

1. Uncertainty is uncertainty. The future is unknowable.

2. Which is exactly the same as saying red has come up 20 times in a row it will/will not come up this time. Traders extrapolate trends etc where there is no right to do so. Is there momentum in markets? Of course there is. Until there isn't.

And because gambling truly has independent outcomes in most games, that actually allows a much better assessment of the probabilities. Then we have those that have 'momentum', horse racing, greyhound racing, high stakes poker...

3. Yes we do. Which makes it harder, not easier. A sucker is soon parted from his money.

4. Gambling requires active money management. Both the same.

5. LOL. How many times and systems have attempted to demonstrate a mathematical edge? When all is said and done 9/10 it is 'discipline and money management' that are the edge. Character.

6. Emotional control was a question, not a statement. But I would agree, markets require far more emotional control. Hence they are 'harder' than gambling.

7. Gambling far less than investing/trading. The degenerate can always bet on which raindrop will roll down the window the fastest.

8. Yes it can vary. However 'investing' is socially acceptable, promoted even as sensible and responsible. Gambling on the other hand is considered in polite circles as boorish and ungentlemanly.

Investing/trading and gambling are more alike than different. If your starting point is that one is radically different from t'other, your money will soon be in my pocket.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

As we welcome the New Year
I've taken a moment to reflect on my trading journey over the past 26 weeks. I'm proud to say that my trading days have been halted for now, and I'm excited to share some key takeaways and insights from this period.

Firstly, my portfolio has seen a significant increase in value over the past 26 weeks compared to the previous financial year, with a tidy sum returned.

1. Adapting to changing market conditions has been a key factor in my success. With ongoing geopolitical and political tensions, the markets have been incredibly volatile, and it's been crucial to stay responsive.

2. Risk management has also been my focus.
Interest

3. I've been working hard to develop a long-term investment strategy and after the market closes for the year, I'll share a progress report on my transition from active trading to investing. While some might find it dull, I'm hoping there is some interest.

Skate.

Mr Skate,

1. Adaptability. With a long term 'set and forget' strategy, you have just thrown away adaptability. Certainly the ability to adapt quickly in the short term.

2. Risk management. Now I may be wrong, but you have inferred that your portfolio will be managed on the fundamentals. Now excuse me for being blunt, but you are clueless on the fundamentals. The fundamentals as an analysis tool are far more difficult than the technicals.

Is there an increased reward for that extra layer of complexity? Probably not. Buffett is often trotted out as an example of success using the fundamentals. Yes he is.

How about Eddie Lampert? Often touted (previously) as the next/new Buffett.

‘It’s done, it’s over’: Eddie Lampert’s Sears case won’t go to Supreme Court

Three courts had already rejected an attempt from Lampert and other lenders to wring millions more from what’s left of the former retail giant.

www.retaildive.com

Blew himself up. This was a very smart and sophisticated fundamentals chap. It is a tough gig.

3. I will be fascinated and following this very closely.

Now you may/may not remember this thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/the-education-of-an-investor.34402/

jog on
duc

 

[TimeISmoney]

My mate's father growing up was a professional horse punter, never seen his wallet empty.

Asked for a tip on the Melbourne cup one day and said "son, any one of those horses can win, they're the best of the best, worst race to ever gamble on".

 

[Skate]

Mr Skate,

1. Adaptability. With a long term 'set and forget' strategy, you have just thrown away adaptability. Certainly the ability to adapt quickly in the short term.

2. Risk management. Now I may be wrong, but you have inferred that your portfolio will be managed on the fundamentals. Now excuse me for being blunt, but you are clueless on the fundamentals. The fundamentals as an analysis tool are far more difficult than the technicals.

Is there an increased reward for that extra layer of complexity? Probably not. Buffett is often trotted out as an example of success using the fundamentals. Yes he is.

How about Eddie Lampert? Often touted (previously) as the next/new Buffett.

View attachment 167973

‘It’s done, it’s over’: Eddie Lampert’s Sears case won’t go to Supreme Court

Three courts had already rejected an attempt from Lampert and other lenders to wring millions more from what’s left of the former retail giant.

www.retaildive.com

Blew himself up. This was a very smart and sophisticated fundamentals chap. It is a tough gig.

3. I will be fascinated and following this very closely.

Now you may/may not remember this thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/the-education-of-an-investor.34402/

jog on
duc

@ducati916, I apologise for any confusion caused by my previous responses. To clarify, my comments about adapting to changing market conditions and risk management were in the context of my trading experience, and not related to my new endeavour of investing.

I may be wrong, but you have inferred that your portfolio will be managed on the fundamentals.

You may also be confused about the point you raised (highlighted above)
Firstly, I'd like to confirm that I won't be actively managing the investment portfolio beyond adding to the original position. My selection of the six companies was based on a thorough evaluation of their fundamentals, with a strong emphasis on dividends and franking credits.

Projected capital gains were not a consideration in my original brief, and I apologise if my previous responses may have caused any confusion on this point.

To provide further context, I'd like to direct you to the six individual posts I made on my reasoning for each selection and my methodology of evaluation. These posts "outline the key factors" that led me to choose each company for my investment portfolio.

Now excuse me for being blunt, but you are clueless on the fundamentals. The fundamentals as an analysis tool are far more difficult than the technical.

Hey @ducati916, check out this throwback post from 5 years ago
It gives a brief history of transiting from a debt collector to being a Financial Judge in the N.S.W. court system. I know, I know - it's a pretty unusual career path, but let me tell you, the best part was helping people find financial solutions that work for everyone involved. It wasn't always easy, but it was always worth it. I don't accept being clueless as one of my attributes.

Dump it Here

Skate a lot of investment boils back to personality, a friend of mine is a great believer in the market and has been all in for 10 years. I'm much more conservative and always carry enough cash, to be able to afford to lose everything in the market. ATM he is braking out in hives, I'm enjoying...

www.aussiestockforums.com

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

@ducati916,

1. I apologise for any confusion caused by my previous responses. To clarify, my comments about adapting to changing market conditions and risk management were in the context of my trading experience, and not related to my new endeavour of investing.



2. You may also be confused about the point you raised (highlighted above)
Firstly, I'd like to confirm that I won't be actively managing the investment portfolio beyond adding to the original position. My selection of the six companies was based on a thorough evaluation of their fundamentals, with a strong emphasis on dividends and franking credits.

3. Projected capital gains were not a consideration in my original brief, and I apologise if my previous responses may have caused any confusion on this point.

4. To provide further context, I'd like to direct you to the six individual posts I made on my reasoning for each selection and my methodology of evaluation. These posts "outline the key factors" that led me to choose each company for my investment portfolio.



5. Hey @ducati916, check out this throwback post from 5 years ago
It gives a brief history of transiting from a debt collector to being a Financial Judge in the N.S.W. court system. I know, I know - it's a pretty unusual career path, but let me tell you, the best part was helping people find financial solutions that work for everyone involved. It wasn't always easy, but it was always worth it. I don't accept being clueless as one of my attributes.

Dump it Here

Skate a lot of investment boils back to personality, a friend of mine is a great believer in the market and has been all in for 10 years. I'm much more conservative and always carry enough cash, to be able to afford to lose everything in the market. ATM he is braking out in hives, I'm enjoying...

www.aussiestockforums.com

Skate.

1. Understood. Which is to say you are moving from active risk management to none.

2. Again, which is what I took you to mean. An analysis of dividends and franking credits is not a fundamental analysis of the company.

3. True. But capital losses take a while to be made up via dividends, assuming they don't fall or even increase.

4. I saw them. They have been undertaken by somebody else. Unless you understand the numbers and cross check them, you have just handed your risk management to a third party. What is their incentive?

5. So two points: (i) dealing with a company that is already busted is very different to seeing in real time, one that is deteriorating and (ii) up to $25K. So your companies are capitalised in the BILLIONS. Two of them are banks, the most opaque difficult financial statements to analyse/understand. Slight difference n'est pas?

You have gone from a paranoid trader (good thing) having several exit strategies on your positions, to, zero exit strategy. Zero risk management. You have gone from thoroughly researching mechanical trading, to fundamental trading with close to zero research/expertise.

The contrast has me scratching my head.

Possibly you have something completely new/brilliant to unveil.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

I will be fascinated and following this very closely.

End of year - Investment Update
As we conclude the third week since the inception of my investment portfolio, it's essential to acknowledge the role that luck has played in its initial success. While I've taken care in selecting my investments, the unpredictability of the market and the inherent volatility of the stocks themselves have undoubtedly contributed to the favourable outcome.

As the weeks and months go by, I expect the value of my investments to fluctuate. While market shifts and unforeseen events may pose challenges, dividends and franking credits should remain somewhat steady even in times of market uncertainty.

Ultimately, my investment strategy is designed to withstand market volatility and capitalise on the long-term growth potential of my portfolio. By adopting a patient, hands-off approach, I'm confident that my investments will continue to generate a sustainable and liveable income stream, helping me achieve my financial goals.












Skate.