Dump it Here

[Skate]

The managed fund industry has a bad wrap, but there are some really good managers in Australia.

@investtrader I couldn't agree more. The managed fund industry has had its fair share of criticism, but there are indeed some exceptional fund managers in Australia who have a proven track record of delivering strong returns for their clients.

Ultimately, it's up to each individual to take control of their financial future and to make informed decisions based on available information.

The screen captures, especially the "Snowflake Analysis" demonstrate my two objectives (1) the "Health" of the company and most importantly (2) the "Dividends" it pays.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

I was reminded once by a valued member
"As you say, there is so many ways to make money in trading and your thread is really showing such variety. No matter which way you trade I feel there is something there to help everyone if needed or wanted".

Skate.

 

[investtrader]

@investtrader I couldn't agree more. The managed fund industry has had its fair share of criticism, but there are indeed some exceptional fund managers in Australia who have a proven track record of delivering strong returns for their clients.

Ultimately, it's up to each individual to take control of their financial future and to make informed decisions based on available information.

The screen captures, especially the "Snowflake Analysis" demonstrate my two objectives (1) the "Health" of the company and most importantly (2) the "Dividends" it pays.

Skate.

@Skate I hadn't looked at Simply Wall St before. Looks pretty good. Reviews on Trust Pilot are good as well.

 

[Skate]

Skate, I have trouble saying nice things, but I would like you to know that you are one of the many members I admire for your kindness, understanding, non judgemental personality and is inclusive of all. You are one who understands that everyone is valuable and contributes in their own ways, no matter what.........so thanks for being flexible and all.

@eskys, thank you so much for your kind words!

Kindness, understanding, and having a non-judgmental approach should be the basis behind every thought leading to every action. I strongly believe in inclusivity and recognising the inherent value that each member brings to the table. I'm grateful for your acknowledgment. Thank you for being so thoughtful and taking the time to express your gratitude.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

To be honest, as I do not invest directly in specific companies, I don't follow them and am usually unaware of who is doing what. If it's no bother can you let me know what that class action is about.

Also the point I was tying to make in a very clumsy way is if it is alleged a company is fudging the books in some way, it should be shown where the company isn't complying with the required accounting standards to which I provided that link. Expressing an opinion the company isn't playing the game properly according a person's view of the world doesn't show that. Hope I am making some sense there.

As an aside, it's funny (almost) when I hear outrage about companies underpaying staff. I have done audits on payrolls and most of the errors are the result of a combination of a multitude of awards together with the lack of on-going training. None were intentional really.

A bit busy but will try to send you links to the few class actions I am involved in just as a share holder.
None were triggered by me, just better informed groups using a no win no pay legal firm and nailing all Ord companies for knowingly misleading shareholders.
In a keep the bastards honest principle, I always participate if given the opportunities.
There is hardly any $ benefit for a small holder, and it takes a lot of effort retrieving trades 10y old in some cases..but I do.
It is IMHO a duty.
-------
All that to say that doing FA is a very tricky game as you base your work on potentially corrupt and misleading data.
I would even argue that the bigger the company, the more hidden and specialised these fraudulent reports are.
Lastly a real world mining example where no figure is falsified, no fraud whatsoever legally done but shareholders are wronged, and Australian taxpayers/Australia too..but than is another story

Existing operational coal mine, accurate and real reserves.
The management decides to have a great quarter( maybe someone want a boost before retiring)0 and extracts the rich 5m seam bulldozing thru the 1m seam located above .
1/6 of existing coal dumped and wasted to suddenly have an amazing first quarter 20xx of productivity and record outputs
The reserves were true and accurate (difficult enough) the overall mine output will be significantly lower..when computed in xxx years if ever, same method frequently done with gold copper mines etc..very easily twisted outcomes.
So yes FA on quarterly or annual reports ..hum..I would look at the history, board people, whatever change and then throw my guess dice.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

4. FMG
Fortescue is a dividend-paying company with a current yield of 6.35% that is well covered by earnings with a payout ratio of 75% (Dividend yield forecast in 3 Years - 4.0%)

View attachment 167143

Skate.

This company actually looks pretty solid.

It collects accounts receivables quickly
It pays accounts payable slowly.
Good credit management.

Turns over its inventory on average 14 days
Holds inventory on average 25 days
The difference is any value add.

Where I think it is capitalising expenses is in Cost of Goods. It is not serious. About +/- 4% of COG.

It is converting cash to profits at a very high rate currently. But it has been consistent in this for the last 3yrs. This will create a slight undervaluation currently.

As we are moving into a commodity super-cycle, solid buy.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Being self-employed and choosing to work seven days a week with only five days off annually was a path I willingly chose. Retirement painted a picture of leisure and respite in my mind, but reality had other plans. Far from slowing down, I find myself immersed in the world of trading, dedicating seven days a week and countless nights to mastering the art.

Yeah skate trading your own money is great.

I get to choose which 14 hours a day I work.

 

[Skate]

Got to give credit to @Skate for buying into the large caps when he did.

@peter2, it appears timing is everything in the game of investing, and I'm grateful that my recent decision to buy into large caps has paid off. But let's be real, I got lucky. It was a snap decision to start investing on Monday, but I had been researching those positions for quite some time.

Buying in the pre-auction demonstrated that I wasn't trying to buy at the lowest price as I was not looking for short-term gains. I intend to hold onto these positions for a liveable wage.

I'm sure dividends, franking credits and capital growth will get me somewhere near the mark. I'm happy to say that my investment portfolio is off to a great start.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

@peter2, it appears timing is everything in the game of investing, and I'm grateful that my recent decision to buy into large caps has paid off. But let's be real, I got lucky. It was a snap decision to start investing on Monday, but I had been researching those positions for quite some time.

Buying in the pre-auction demonstrated that I wasn't trying to buy at the lowest price as I was not looking for short-term gains. I intend to hold onto these positions for a liveable wage.

I'm sure dividends, franking credits and capital growth will get me somewhere near the mark. I'm happy to say that my investment portfolio is off to a great start.

Skate.

buying at a low price , even for that day pays off if you are choosing to participate in the DRP ( every share counts when you are compounding ) and the extra few cents franking credit , well they might mount up later

now i exited FMG ( i had averaged to a fairly sweet price ) because it appeared to me FMG was going for new unproven technology and wondered if FMG was heading for a R&D trap

i would have rather FMG had worked towards better iron ( and nickel ) mines with that surplus cash , so i took the profit and left

but if you are looking for potential growth maybe FMG will tick that box nicely

 

[martyjames]

Re Duc's comment : "As we are moving into a commodity super-cycle, solid buy."

Apologies if i missed the post but what makes you think this (we are moving into a commodity super-cycle)? Thanks

Marty

 

[Skate]

As we are moving into a commodity super-cycle, solid buy.

@martyjames, I'm sure @ducati916 will answer you in due time.

Recently I purchased FMG for two main reasons, one being "the company has a strong potential for growth". FMG is well-positioned to capitalise on the increasing global demand for natural resources, such as iron ore, coal, and copper, which is likely to drive up prices and boost FMG's revenue, "the driver of dividends". As the global economy continues to expand, the need for these resources is expected to rise, positioning FMG as a key player in meeting this demand.

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

Re Duc's comment : "As we are moving into a commodity super-cycle, solid buy."

Apologies if i missed the post but what makes you think this (we are moving into a commodity super-cycle)? Thanks

Marty

The US is onshoring everything that was offshored to China.

China drove a commodity super-cycle. So too will the US.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

Re Duc's comment : "As we are moving into a commodity super-cycle, solid buy."

Apologies if i missed the post but what makes you think this (we are moving into a commodity super-cycle)? Thanks

Marty

i was thinking the commodity super-cycle is a bit long already , and wondering if there is much left , of course a really big war would boost iron and nickel demand ... but our biggest trading partner is China ( the one we keep on calling names ) , so maybe a war won't benefit us as much as some other iron miners ( like Brazil )

 

[DaveTrade]

i was thinking the commodity super-cycle is a bit long already , and wondering if there is much left , of course a really big war would boost iron and nickel demand ... but our biggest trading partner is China ( the one we keep on calling names ) , so maybe a war won't benefit us as much as some other iron miners ( like Brazil )

A lot of metals will be needed for the Tech/Semiconductor/AI boom that is just getting started.

 

[divs4ever]

A lot of metals will be needed for the Tech/Semiconductor/AI boom that is just getting started.

we'll see , we might descend into an economic meltdown , as the credit systems blow a fuse

( somebody has to be still working to pay for this stuff ... and the the taxes to fund the R&D )

i reckon kicking the can , is running out of effectiveness

 

[debtfree]

Well another yearly milestone has passed, 17th Dec 2023 ........

Happy 5th Anniversary @Skate on your "Dump It Here" thread .

An outstanding thread Skate and an outstanding effort on your behalf to keep it going, keep it interesting, keep new information coming and reminding us of what has slipped our minds.

I know I’ve said it before, if you have read this thread and it hasn’t helped you or made you think about things in any way I would be amazed and I’m sure many others would agree.

5 Years – Roughly 100 Pages per Year / 2,000 Posts per Year. I looked up the Dump It Here thread in the ‘Popular Contents’ this morning and I found:

All Times Data – Highest Replies - You are 5th highest with 9,855 posts (replies). All Times Data – Most Views - You are 8th highest with 986,280 views (nearly 1 million).

Sure there are others higher in the lists, but they have been going for a lot of years longer.

Congratulations once again Skate and before I forget, Thank You !

 

[Skate]

@debtfree, I am filled with deep gratitude for your kind words.

This journey has been nothing short of incredible, and I want to express my heartfelt appreciation to every member who has contributed to this thread. Whether they shared valuable insights, asked thought-provoking questions, or simply engaged in the discussion, their contributions have enriched the thread and transformed it into a valuable resource.

I would also like to extend my sincere thanks to @joeblow for providing a platform that brings together like-minded individuals to share knowledge and ideas. Joe's dedication and hard work in maintaining the forum have not gone unnoticed, and I am truly grateful for the opportunity to be part of this community.

Skate.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Congratulations Dear Old friend!!!


However I am having a Carl Marx type Struggle with Your new Direction

According to Marxism, there are two main classes of people: The bourgeoisie controls the capital and means of production, and the proletariat provide the labour. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels say that for most of history, there has been a struggle between those two classes. This struggle is known as class struggle.


When it Comes to Sailing the Global Exchange There is not 2 but 3 Classes of people

1st we have the Technical Analysts

2nd we have the Fundamental Strategists

Matthew 6:24-26 ​

“You can’t worship two gods at once. Loving one god, you’ll end up hating the other. Adoration of one feeds contempt for the other.

The 3rd is Fantasists 'nuf said

 

[ducati916]

3. CBA
Commonwealth Bank of Australia is a dividend-paying company with a current yield of 4.47% that is well covered by earnings with a payout ratio of 75% (Dividend yield forecast in 3 Years - 4.4%)

View attachment 167142

Skate.

Mr Skate,

Horrible.

ROE has been falling for 10yrs. Not a good sign. Slight uptick this year.

Leverage has been increasing at a 7% compounded clip for the last 10yrs. With ROE falling, in the face of higher leverage, dangerous.

Loan loss provisions: Loan loss provisions are measured in basis points for an average of 0.66bp

What does an average recession look like?





You would need (to be safe) to calculate on about 2.5% which is the blow-out number.



Which is interesting because ANZ lends more to corporates than to retail (mortgages). This to me is the most important number.



So you are buying banks at the top of their cycle. The Fed won't cut immediately, probably March 2024. However when they do cut, it will likely be in a panic at 50bps increments, I wouldn't rule out an initial 75bps or in real extremis, 100bps.

jog on
duc