Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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waterbottle said:
What about India though? It was supposed to replace China
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it might be replacing China as we speak , but due to data reliability , would me know yet ( it might be being withheld for 75 years , to give plenty time for revision as needed )

after all the US is trying to use all it's discrete levers to coerce India ( into being a puppet state )
 
over9k said:
They're much more self-reliant in, well, basically everything (compared to china at least).

Not to say it isn't a wise pivot, but they're not equivalents.
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different entities ( and mentalities ) for absolutely sure , India for example would be very hard to physically blockade several trading partners are relatively close, ( Africa , Middle-East , and South East Asia even China )

i see China and India working in parallel ( friends where mutually convenient , rivals or separate paths at other times

i am tilting my international investment cash towards India , because that is where i see the best potential growth , currently ( next year Brazil or Africa might attract my new cash ) , i see China as 'consolidating ' and ironing out the bottle-necks ( because my India exposure features several LICs/ETFs naturally my China exposure will also increase as a consequence , but maybe not as much as the India focus )
 
divs4ever said:
different entities ( and mentalities ) for absolutely sure , India for example would be very hard to physically blockade several trading partners are relatively close, ( Africa , Middle-East , and South East Asia even China )

i see China and India working in parallel ( friends where mutually convenient , rivals or separate paths at other times
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I would tend to disagree with that last statement.
India and China have had more than their share of Border Skirmishes.
In 1962 there was an Indian China war over the Himalayan borders, that has been simmering along since then with occasional outbreaks of hostility. ( see India China Crisis ).
China's takeover of a Sri lankan port on India's doorstep has also been a serious point of conflict. (see Chinese ship docks at hambantota ).
India has been wary of Chinese foreign influence operating out of Singapore (Fake Singapore profiles ).
However, India does not dispute China's claim to sovereignity over Honk Kong, Macau and Taiwan, so there is some leeway here.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
I would tend to disagree with that last statement.
India and China have had more than their share of Border Skirmishes.
In 1962 there was an Indian China war over the Himalayan borders, that has been simmering along since then with occasional outbreaks of hostility. ( see India China Crisis ).
China's takeover of a Sri lankan port on India's doorstep has also been a serious point of conflict. (see Chinese ship docks at hambantota ).
India has been wary of Chinese foreign influence operating out of Singapore (Fake Singapore profiles ).
However, India does not dispute China's claim to sovereignity over Honk Kong, Macau and Taiwan, so there is some leeway here.
Mick
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having ( now both deceased ) an Australian mother and a New Zealand-born and raised father , there were plenty of skirmishes in my extended family , however when mutually beneficial , the family members would work together ( whether related by blood-line or not )

i suspect India and China ( and other neighbours ) will do the same ,

regarding Sri Lanka , i was surprised India didn't throw out a lifeline much quicker , surely closer Indian-Sri Lankan relations is a good thing , despite the painful past . ( almost anything is better than an ' IMF bailout' )

i don't see Sri Lanka turning into a version of Singapore as a totally bad thing either ( with both China and Indian support would be my hope )

now maybe China might restructure Sri Lankan tea industry to offer more products to suit the Chinese ( and other global ) markets

to my mind that would be a better outcome than leaving Sri Lanka to become a power vacuum/poverty trap
 
We're almost 2 weeks out from the next Fed meeting. CME Fed watch tool giving an 85% of a 25bps hike. Interesting the US 6 month bond is at 5.05, 3 months at 5.09.

What happens to the bond market if the Fed signals its going to keep going higher?
 
waterbottle said:
We're almost 2 weeks out from the next Fed meeting. CME Fed watch tool giving an 85% of a 25bps hike. Interesting the US 6 month bond is at 5.05, 3 months at 5.09.

What happens to the bond market if the Fed signals its going to keep going higher?
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We end up back where we were before all the bank collapse carryon.
 
RBA minutes are out.

Interesting to note that they were considering a 25bps hike but decided not to go ahead due to the 'need for more data'.
Looks the RBA staffers will have updated forecasts ready by next month. I imagine this would be similar to what the Fed has already released - persistently high inflation for the next 1-2 years, albeit lower than what it peaked at but nevertheless higher than the target band.
The other interesting point is the discussion regarding migration. Members noted that net positive migration is likely to have a short-term inflationary impact which would have an impact on housing, before making an impact on labour.

Interesting to see what gets done next month. My gut tells me they'll have to hike again, but let's see what data gets printed.
 
waterbottle said:
Depends on the CPI print. Canadian headline inflation is falling off a cliff, now 4.3% with the expectation that its going to have a 3 handle this year...
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Well I'm going to quote myself here and post the latest UK data... CPI of 10.1%, above 10 for the 7th month in a row!!!!!! With a peak at 11. There hasn't been much of a drop there despite the fall in crude prices...
 
What do we all think of inflation at the ground level? To be honest I'm not seeing any accelerating inflation in the last few weeks and my area of the economy.

... Notwithstanding the totally ridiculous inflation in home building costs.

I've put prices up because I can and I can tell you it is well above the rate of inflation... But it is pretty much catch up.
 
wayneL said:
What do we all think of inflation at the ground level? To be honest I'm not seeing any accelerating inflation in the last few weeks and my area of the economy.

... Notwithstanding the totally ridiculous inflation in home building costs.

I've put prices up because I can and I can tell you it is well above the rate of inflation... But it is pretty much catch up.
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can't tell , i haven't bought much ( except prescription medicines so far this month )
 
wayneL said:
What do we all think of inflation at the ground level? To be honest I'm not seeing any accelerating inflation in the last few weeks and my area of the economy.

... Notwithstanding the totally ridiculous inflation in home building costs.

I've put prices up because I can and I can tell you it is well above the rate of inflation... But it is pretty much catch up.
Click to expand...
Petrol high. Food stable but high. Internet slightly cheaper. Electricity about to rocket. Mortgage fixed but I'd be fuming if I were a renter.
 
wayneL said:
What do we all think of inflation at the ground level? To be honest I'm not seeing any accelerating inflation in the last few weeks and my area of the economy.
Click to expand...
Haven't personally encountered any nasty price surprises lately, the pace of it does seem to have greatly slowed down.

Did spot petrol (91) over $2 the other day though but that's not widespread.
 

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