Inflation

[Smurf1976]

If you take a look, you'll see that the "core" inflation number is much worse than the rest.

One I can put some figures on is the electricity distribution industry.

That's the "poles and wires" side of it, not actually generating any electricity at all just distributing it.

SA Power Networks revenue for 2023-24 all inclusive should be $854.425 million, up from $802.728 million in 2022-23. That's an estimate obviously but it's the "official" one not mine personally.

So that's 6.44% inflation of something that's inherently rather stable as a business where the main costs are labour and materials (noting that there's no actual electricity in this budget apart from that used internally in offices etc).

That's a fairly "core" measure in my view, it being the increase in costs for a business that by its very nature is mature, stable and mostly doing the same thing from one year to the next.

 

[over9k]

One I can put some figures on is the electricity distribution industry.

That's the "poles and wires" side of it, not actually generating any electricity at all just distributing it.

SA Power Networks revenue for 2023-24 all inclusive should be $854.425 million, up from $802.728 million in 2022-23. That's an estimate obviously but it's the "official" one not mine personally.

So that's 6.44% inflation of something that's inherently rather stable as a business where the main costs are labour and materials (noting that there's no actual electricity in this budget apart from that used internally in offices etc).

That's a fairly "core" measure in my view, it being the increase in costs for a business that by its very nature is mature, stable and mostly doing the same thing from one year to the next.

I don't know about AU, but I know a lot of USA's electricity grid is practically falling apart/in need of a huge overhaul or outright replacement. Particularly so for california.

 

[over9k]

If you take a look, you'll see that the "core" inflation number is much worse than the rest. It's only the dump(s) in things like tech that's offsetting the increases in, say, energy

Without those offsets, things would look much worse.

The data:

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 155679

Nope.

Fed now forecasting a recession later in the year....

Report Keeps May Rate Increase in Play https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-report-keeps-a-may-interest-rate-increase-in-play-fd105729

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Persistent is a word we'll likely hear more of

 

[divs4ever]

Persistent is a word we'll likely hear more of

i would have thought 'nagging ' or 'niggling' first ... anything to delay calling it entrenched

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Or erupting?

 

[divs4ever]

Or erupting?

maybe not , it might be a little closer to accurate than the panic-quellers would like

 

[over9k]

The $64,000 question is... does this have legs?

 

[over9k]

 

[waterbottle]

PPI and CPI down.

Methinks this must be temporary given crude hit high 60s a few weeks back and is now above 80.

What's the Fed to do if the next print comes in as an increase thanks to crude?

 

[over9k]

PPI and CPI down.

Methinks this must be temporary given crude hit high 60s a few weeks back and is now above 80.

What's the Fed to do if the next print comes in as an increase thanks to crude?

See previous post re: parts of the inflation basket offsetting each other.

Might be time for a growth AND energy play.

 

[frugal.rock]

The devil and Citigroup both beating earning estimates.
Pulling the US banking sector out of the mire.
JP Morgan SP up around 7% currently, Citigroup around 3.9%
Other banks at various levels up, Bank of America up 3.9% also.

Is this the breath of life needed to keep this rally running?

 

[divs4ever]

PPI and CPI down.

Methinks this must be temporary given crude hit high 60s a few weeks back and is now above 80.

What's the Fed to do if the next print comes in as an increase thanks to crude?

release more oil from the strategic reserve or allow more US mainland drilling/exploration ( is my guess )

 

[divs4ever]

The devil and Citigroup both beating earning estimates.
Pulling the US banking sector out of the mire.
JP Morgan SP up around 7% currently, Citigroup around 3.9%
Other banks at various levels up, Bank of America up 3.9% also.

Is this the breath of life needed to keep this rally running?

View attachment 155771

View attachment 155770

not from what i am seeing on Investing.com , looks red to me ( maybe the PPT will rush in at the close )

 

[frugal.rock]

 

[over9k]

Banks the only sector in the green. Even energy is flat for the day.

 

[Knobby22]

Banks the only sector in the green. Even energy is flat for the day.

And I expect that is due to the improving bond rates and therefore lower risks within the banking sector.

 

[over9k]

One of the very few things (along with tech) that's deflating. Both are deflating because of demand collapse and it isn't going to improve.

Twiggy started rotating out of iron ore 5ish years ago for a reason.

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 155887

One of the very few things (along with tech) that's deflating. Both are deflating because of demand collapse and it isn't going to improve.

Twiggy started rotating out of iron ore 5ish years ago for a reason.

What about India though? It was supposed to replace China