Inflation

[divs4ever]

remember Central Bank rates of around 5% has been considered 'normal ' in previous (pre-GFC ) times

 

[over9k]

Still going.

 

[waterbottle]

Australian and US Philadelphia PMIs continuing to head lower. Well into contractionary territory....

 

[over9k]

Australian and US Philadelphia PMIs continuing to head lower. Well into contractionary territory....

Yep - demand side.

 

[frugal.rock]

Diesel fuel has been spotted matching E10 or a bit cheaper in sidknee

 

[rcw1]

Diesel $1.98 in Cairns. E10 $1.85
Rubber Bands a dollar ha ha ha ha ha

Diesel fuel has been spotted matching E10 or a bit cheaper in sidknee

kind regards
rcw1

 

[over9k]

PMI's come in hot, bonds all pump, markets drop, surprise surprise (not).

 

[farmerge]

Diesel $1.98 in Cairns. E10 $1.85
Rubber Bands a dollar ha ha ha ha ha




kind regards
rcw1

$1.815 with the discount I get at Gidge

 

[qldfrog]

Diesel fuel has been spotted matching E10 or a bit cheaper in sidknee

Parity here in Aus is a clear sign of recession indeed

 

[over9k]

Metals are getting pummeled across the board. The demand side is gone.

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 156159

Metals are getting pummeled across the board. The demand side is gone.

might be buying in currencies outside the US Dollar , plenty of lower grade iron ore available from less developed nations

if the discount is steep enough even 40% ore is viable ( and some , like say India , might be happy to supply bar-stock or ingots at competitive prices )

 

[over9k]

Etc etc. You get the idea.

I'm not bullish on aus going forward. Aside from coal miners there's basically nothing I'd touch in this country. I'll get to why in a moment.

 

[over9k]

Our friend Tracy Shuchart (@chiglr) shared this article highlighting the reality of the “green transition.”

The coal fleet grew by 19.5 gigawatts last year, enough to light up around 15 million homes, with nearly all newly commissioned coal projects in China, according to a report by Global Energy Monitor, an organization that tracks a variety of energy projects around the globe.

The article goes on to explain:

New coal plants were added in 14 countries and eight countries announced new coal projects. China, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Zimbabwe were the only countries that both added new coal plants and announced new projects. China accounted for 92% of all new coal project announcements.
China added 26.8 gigawatts and India added about 3.5 gigawatts of new coal power capacity to their electricity grids. China also gave clearance for nearly 100 gigawatts of new coal power projects with construction likely to begin this year.

Oh, and there’s also also this (emphasis ours):

To meet climate goals set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, coal plants in rich countries need to be retired by 2030 and coal plants in developing countries need to be shut down by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. That means around 117 gigawatts of coal needs to be retired every year, but only 26 gigawatts was retired in 2022.

As we’ve been warning for years now, the whole “green transition” is a pipedream.

 

[divs4ever]

Our friend Tracy Shuchart (@chiglr) shared this article highlighting the reality of the “green transition.”


View attachment 156164




The article goes on to explain:




Oh, and there’s also also this (emphasis ours):




As we’ve been warning for years now, the whole “green transition” is a pipedream.

only the NZ power generators seen to be making a meaningful move towards profitable , renewable energy , but they had hydro and geothermal to help get serious

my various dabbles in 'renewable technology ' have been train-wrecks or R&D black-holes , however my exposure to coal ( mostly but not exclusively in Australia ) was made in previous years , so am in a very comfortable position in most ( except WEC ) so am unlikely to add in the near future ( except maybe BHP )

 

[over9k]

Our friend Tracy Shuchart (@chiglr) shared this article highlighting the reality of the “green transition.”


View attachment 156164




The article goes on to explain:




Oh, and there’s also also this (emphasis ours):




As we’ve been warning for years now, the whole “green transition” is a pipedream.

Follow-up:

 

[waterbottle]

Earnings week for big tech. MSFT and GOOG numbers ok. I noted UBS still has poor expectations for future revenue. First Republic bank reporting that it lost 40% of deposits wow.

BTC and ETH down about 10% compared to last week too.
Inflation figures this week

Time to buckle up. Things might start to get interesting.

 

[waterbottle]

Oz CPI at 7%, expected 6.9%. Hike inbound IMO.
Let's see what markets say.

 

[mullokintyre]

From the data release atABS website , some interesting data being released with the Quarterly results out as well.
As in last release, the increase in services shows no stopping as seen in the monthly figures graphed below.


The slowdown in price of goods offset by increases in services at both the monthly and quarterly level.
" .. annual inflation for services was 6.1 per cent, up from 5.5 per cent in the December quarter and is the highest since 2001," Ms Marquardt said.
We are a services led economy.
Interest rates have to go up gain, otherwise the RBA will have less than zero credibility.

Food prices (+1.6 per cent) continued to rise, driven by fruit and vegetables (+2.4 per cent) and snacks and confectionary (+4.1 per cent). "Potato shortages due to wet weather in key growing regions late last year led to price rises for both potato crisps and frozen potato products, while higher edible oil and packaging prices also contributed to the rise for a range of snack products," said Ms Marquardt.

The most significant contributors to this quarter's rise were medical and hospital services (+4.2 per cent), tertiary education (+9.7 per cent), gas and other household fuels (+14.3 per cent) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+4.7 per cent).

The things that went down, International travel and accomodation probably of no great relevance to the majority of the population.
They are more worried about the things that went up.
Mick

 

[waterbottle]

How do you cure demand side inflation?

 

[divs4ever]

How do you cure demand side inflation?

have a plentiful supply , is the obvious answer , however an alternate answer is crank up prices ( and rates ) so many cannot afford to buy ( but then they might steal , instead )

other solutions like rationing , or subsidies trigger different consequences

now cranking up supply involves increased productivity ( which often triggers extra problems ) or removing supply chain bottlenecks if logistics is the issue