Speculative Stock Portfolio

[aus_trader]

OK, had a very busy weekend, but here is my reasoning for buying Mortgage Choice Limited (MOC). I've been watching it for a while and didn't pull the trigger till Friday because sometimes buying too early is just as costly as buying too late. I have had quite a few stocks that has gone initially against me and once I have exited, it has soared like there is no tomorrow. So perhaps my initial analysis was good but the timing was awful, and because this is a trading portfolio it's not like I can hope and pray when a position has gone a fair bit against me.

Anyway, I think MOC is at an inflection point where it may be the right time to buy. It's also got multiple triggers that's got me exited, such as:

• Good fundamental reasons and why favourable conditions are just about set for this stock
• On a longer term chart, MOC has hit All-Time-Lows and bounced back
• On a shorter/medium term chart MOC is breaking out to the upside

So let's talk about each of those points. First the fundamentals. Since the pandemic has hit, most of MOC's customers have gone on holidays and they are about to come back in a big way. Yes, the mortgage holidays offered to customers by the banks are about to expire very soon and when they do, home owners and investment loan owners will be scurrying back to companies such as MOC to check, compare and re-finance.

I don't think there is many competitors to MOC on ASX either, so MOC is kind of a monopoly to dominate across the ASX. I could find Aussie Home Loans as a competitor, but they are not listed on the ASX.

On a long term charting perspective, MOC has bounced back from what looks like a false break of the All-Time-Lows:


On a medium term chart, it's made a breakout to the upside, which is encouraging:


I also bought a smaller stake in another stock in an area that I was researching up. I was encouraged by the take over of 3P Learning Ltd (3PL), that was offered a very nice premium to it's share price, so started searching everywhere for similar themes throughout the asx.

Although not exactly in the same online learning space for kids, I found another stock that is in the area of online security for kids. It has run up quite a bit lately and I am not a big fan of chasing stocks. Yes, I realise that might be counter-intuitive to a lot of the momentum traders and other system based trading members on the forum. So anyway I decided to try my luck with a smaller position size than I would normally buy during the closing minutes of Friday's session. The company is Family Zone Cyber Safety Ltd (FZO).

They basically protect children across all devices for schools, home etc:



Although not profitable yet, this company has been growing fast. In fact the pandemic has anything but accelerated that growth it seems:



Open Portfolio:

 

[aus_trader]

I don't have exact rules as to exiting a stock when it has gone "no where" for a long time. I like to give quite a bit of time for a trade to work out: either as a winner and take profit or as a loser and be cut. But at some point in time, it's simply not good enough to keep capital tied up in stocks that has not done either. So I have decided to chop two of the existing stocks in the portfolio and keep that capital for other opportunities as they arise from stock research.

Both BET and 1ST have been sold and therefore exits this portfolio. I even saw rough "Head and Shoulders" chart pattern on those charts, which could be bearish in the short term as well...

Closed Positions:

 

[Skate]

Both BET and 1ST have been sold and therefore exits this portfolio.

@aus_trader my Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy is in agreement.








Skate.

 

[aus_trader]

@aus_trader my Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy is in agreement.

View attachment 112526




View attachment 112527

Skate.

Thank you @Skate great to see the alignment in the sell timing

 

[Telamelo]

Betmakers Technology BET moving up nicely today @ 0.445c +7.23% on very good volume - anyone still holding this one? seems a decent looking chart too.

 

[aus_trader]

Betmakers Technology BET moving up nicely today @ 0.445c +7.23% on very good volume - anyone still holding this one? seems a decent looking chart too.

Yeah, has gapped up today with no news or announcements...
I don't hold.

 

[Telamelo]

Yeah, has gapped up today with no news or announcements...
I don't hold.

Previous open 'gap up' on BET since closed in after market closing auction yesterday (on lowish volume retrace).

Upcoming 4c report due within a week from now anticipated to deliver some promising/exciting news imo dyor cheers tela

 

[aus_trader]

A stock that I have been watching has pulled back a bit for me to take a position on. I have talked about it in the last ASF monthly competition when it was brought to attention after being picked by @Faramir last month. In fact I have expressed my interest in the stock as it is in the online education sector that has performed well due to the current pandemic situation:

OK Faramir, as for your wish this is my take on OLL.

In it's most simplified explanation why I reckon it's getting attention is, two words: Online Education.

To expand the above point, a lot of things including retail are going more and more online and the pandemic situation has put fuel to that fire. Online education is no different. So I think OLL is at the right place at the right time.

I don't hold, but I would definitely be putting OLL to my watchlists of interested stocks to consider. I have made a tidy profit of around 50% on another online education stock 3PL that recently got taken over, all the details are in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.

So if 3PL is the Online Education stock for the School kids, then OLL is the stock that is for the bigger kids like us.

Openlearning Ltd (OLL) is expanding rapidly and the current situation is helping it grow:



But what's more interesting is that it has changed it's service offering from a fixed revenue model to a revenue share model:



Has wide ranging clients that are educational providers right across the Asia-Pacific region:



This small company has big bald plans, to be the leader in it's region and be up against the US/UK giants in the sector:



Open Portfolio:

 

[Telamelo]

BET 4c Quarterly highlights:


• Cash receipts up +63% on previous quarter ($3.9 million versus $2.4 million)
• ~$16 million Annualised Revenue Run Rate based on Q1 FY21 (Unaudited)
• Strong growth driven by Managed Trading Services and Global Racing Network
• BetMakers growing Australian revenues ahead of international expansion
• Closing cash balance of $32.8 million in the bank (no debt)



Todd Buckingham said: “The business has now delivered two consecutive quarters of sustained growth, leveraged from its strong base of recurring revenues, and we believe we are in a strong position to continue to expand our products and services.



“The impressive growth we are seeing over the past two quarters is a result of the successful development, launch and implementation of our products and services in the Australian market over the past few years.



“The Company has a strong technology and leadership team across the business and its innovative B2B wagering technology products have generated strong results since launching into the Australian market, which gives us great confidence for further roll outs both domestically and into new overseas markets.



“In particular, Our Managed Trading Services business has been a success, not only for BetMakers but also for our customers using the service.”



DYOR as always..

 

[Telamelo]

BET 4c Quarterly highlights:


• Cash receipts up +63% on previous quarter ($3.9 million versus $2.4 million)
• ~$16 million Annualised Revenue Run Rate based on Q1 FY21 (Unaudited)
• Strong growth driven by Managed Trading Services and Global Racing Network
• BetMakers growing Australian revenues ahead of international expansion
• Closing cash balance of $32.8 million in the bank (no debt)



Todd Buckingham said: “The business has now delivered two consecutive quarters of sustained growth, leveraged from its strong base of recurring revenues, and we believe we are in a strong position to continue to expand our products and services.



“The impressive growth we are seeing over the past two quarters is a result of the successful development, launch and implementation of our products and services in the Australian market over the past few years.



“The Company has a strong technology and leadership team across the business and its innovative B2B wagering technology products have generated strong results since launching into the Australian market, which gives us great confidence for further roll outs both domestically and into new overseas markets.



“In particular, Our Managed Trading Services business has been a success, not only for BetMakers but also for our customers using the service.”



DYOR as always..

BET taken off now @ 0.47c +10.59% has crossed above 50dma a bullish sign! dyor

 

[aus_trader]

As some of you know, I have been researching the Rare Earth (RE) plays on the ASX for some time and have posted in some of the relevant threads. The research is done and thank you for the members who threw names/asx codes of RE plays at me to do the research on that I didn't even know existed. All have been put through the forensic examination ?

Some are shooting to the moon in terms of share price and I am not chasing it, given my success of latching onto flying objects is pathetic ! For the chasers, who might be interested and why this sector is red hot right now, here are some stocks:

Largest Aussie listed RE play with a multi-billion dollar Market Cap, LYC:


ASM:

Those of you who have been reading this thread know I held ASM shares from the ALK spin out, but sold soon after and in hindsight quite prematurely as they have tripled since then

Anyway, moving on...

ARR:


REE:


VML:


and for the biggest runner of all, PM8:


I've also run my pencil over ARU and HAS. I think that just about covers the ASX RE space. I get obsessed when I start digging...

So after all that did I purchase anything ? Yes but none of the above. Yes, YES some are with some substance with a RE deposit already defined and some are more advanced such as ASM which has a operating pilot plant, but the only commercial level RE production company is LYC. Some stocks have already shot to the moon on the hope of one of their drill holes will hit some of these obscure rare substances someday...

But to my surprise I found a highly strategic, nationally significant RE deposit that has already got a pilot plant up and running flying under the radar from the speculator frenzy. Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU) has a very strategic deposit that is rich in the heaviest of the RE metals that carry higher value. It's of National significance that a Chinese firm that tried to get onto the control of the company from the inside was blocked by the Federal Government:




This is also at a time when US is desperate to find RE suppliers outside of China as trade war continues...





So a parcel of NTU shares were bought for this portfolio. I will update the portfolio later.

 

[aus_trader]

Current Open Portfolio with Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU) that was just bought:

 

[over9k]

Have you looked into DEG? There's talk of $10/share by the end of next year. They just released a big presentation that I linked in the DEG thread.

 

[aus_trader]

Have you looked into DEG? There's talk of $10/share by the end of next year. They just released a big presentation that I linked in the DEG thread.

Well it might be a good Gold and base metal prospect but I don't think it's in the area of Rare metals. So I can't really compare like-for-like.

It's no longer a junior since it has surpassed the 1bn+ market cap, so you'll really have to compare with the other mid-tier Gold and base metal miners on the asx to see if it still has another 10-fold upside ? I am thinking along the lines of comparing to SLR, GOR, SAR etc...

 

[aus_trader]

I don't like to post updates and news about stocks on this thread on a regular basis, this is just a trading portfolio journal. Besides, that would be seen as unnecessary promoting and ramping

But I regularly post in individual stock threads whenever I find relevant information to inform fellow ASF members and also to help Joe who keeps this site/forum open for us.

So I have posted an article in the NTU thread:
NTU - Northern Minerals

and also posted a video presentation in OLL thread:
OLL - OpenLearning Limited

 

[aus_trader]

Openlearning Ltd (OLL) came out of the transformative company announcement and capital raising which was well received by the market.


Further discussions have been posted on the relevant thread:

OLL - OpenLearning Limited

 

[aus_trader]

Hi guys and gals,

I've been so busy lately that I couldn't update a purchase I made yesterday. Got home after mid-night and just didn't have the energy to keep you all informed...

It's a little gem in the small cap space that I've researched up and has an involvement in a global mega trend that is happening. Just saw that it has a dividend yield on it which is the icing on the cake, because I would have bought it to play the mega-trend growth possibility even without the Div ! It's like being paid to hold something you would think would appreciate over time.

I'll try and write up a full update on the company ( Rectifier Technologies Limited - RFT) if I get time over the rest of the week, if not over the weekend.

Also don't have time to do a portfolio update on the existing stocks. So just the purchase:

 

[aus_trader]

FZO has not done well since purchase and looks to be trending down on the short-term on the chart. It was sold onto the late rally at 44c, will update the portfolio positions later on the weekend...

 

[aus_trader]

So a little bit about the Rectifier Technologies Limited (RFT) that was purchased during the week. Well if you look it up, it makes rectifiers and electronic components, so what's the involvement in a Global mega trend ?

EV's or Electric Vehicles, it's tagged on as something that the company provides components for at the end of the company description:



I've also mentioned this small cap pays a dividend which is rare for small cap growth stocks, so also highlighted that above as well. Most small cap stocks don't make a dime and each time they burn through existing cash they keep coming back to the market to ask for more funds to keep them alive.

EV transformation is probably a slow trend and it's not likely to replace all the fossil fuel powered vehicles overnight. But that mega trend is in motion and there are entrepreneurs like Elon Musk who heads Tesla Motors ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) who is accelerating this trend with the recently built giga-factory. So in time it's likely that the fuel guzzlers will slowly get replaced with Electric Vehicles as once upon a time Henry Ford transformed transportation from Horse and Carts into Motor Cars.

Anyway I am not interested in investing in Electric Vehicle makers, but I would like to sell picks and shovels to miners and prospectors during a Gold rush; to use a mining analogy. So I think this little company RFT fits the bill pretty well. You see, along with the rise of EV's there needs to be a rise of Charging Stations and that's where RFT comes in. It is developing and making Home Chargers for EV's and has partnerships in place to supply components to Charging Station manufacturers like Tritium (https://www.tritium.com.au), a private company that is not listed on the asx...



RFT's recent announcements also show that there is a boost to their income coming in from EV components:


Open Portfolio:


Closed Positions:

 

[Skate]

Rectifier Technologies Limited (RFT) - supporting chart
@aus_trader another great find. Your summation adds validity in supporting your ultimate purchase - well done.



Skate.