Fake News - Global Warming Consensus

[rederob]

Can someone pls post a reputable link to a good analysis of all the facts concerning CO2. Kahuna1's video did it well, but its a 20 minute vid, text is more likely to be read.

A lot of these "deniers" listen to "cash for comment Alan Jones and co" who preach that CO2 is not a problem and CC is a hoax.

There might be one simple site - I don't know.
As climate covers so many fields of science you need to look at specific sources/sites to find the latest state of play.
Dr Google seems to work ok for that.

 

[Darc Knight]

"The greenhouse effect: natural and enhanced
The ‘natural’ greenhouse effect makes life as we know it possible on Earth. Without this effect, the average temperature would be about – 18°C (well below the freezing point of water), rather than its current 14°C.

Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the radiative balance, the net difference between the energy gained from incoming sunlight and the amount lost into space as infrared radiation. The Earth’s atmosphere acts like a transparent blanket, letting in light but trapping some of the heat it generates. Without an atmosphere, all of this energy would be lost to space.

This natural effect relies on ‘greenhouse’ gases in our atmosphere allowing sunlight to pass through, and trapping some of the resulting heat energy that radiates back up from the Earth’s surface.

The greenhouse effect describes how certain gases in our atmosphere increase the temperature on Earth’s surface by preventing some of the energy radiating from the planet’s surface from being lost into space (UNEP/GRID-Arendal).
The human-induced build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is known as the 'enhanced' greenhouse effect or 'anthropogenic climate change'.

Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in about 1750, human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, including coal and oil, have dramatically increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. As a result, the rate of heat-loss from the Earth has slowed, creating a warming effect. More than 85 per cent of the additional heat in our atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans.

The enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to change many of the basic weather patterns that make up our climate, including wind and rainfall patterns and the incidence and intensity of storms.

Every aspect of our lives is in some way influenced by the climate. For example, we depend on water supplies that exist only under certain climatic conditions, and our agriculture requires particular ranges of temperature and rainfall.

Greenhouse gases
The most important greenhouse gases are water vapour and carbon dioxide (CO2). Both are present at very small concentrations in the atmosphere. Water vapour varies considerably in space and time because it has a short ‘lifetime’ in the atmosphere. Because of this variation, it is difficult to measure globally averaged water vapour concentration. Carbon dioxide has a much longer lifetime and is well mixed throughout the atmosphere. The current concentration is about 0.04 per cent. Other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere include methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons.

Water vapour accounts for about half the present-day greenhouse effect, but its concentration in the atmosphere is not influenced directly by human activities. The amount of water in the atmosphere is related mainly to changes in the Earth’s temperature. For example, as the atmosphere warms it is able to hold more water. Although water vapour absorbs heat, it does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as other greenhouse gases; it tends to act as part of a feedback loop rather than being a direct cause of climate change. (Read more about feedback in Climate systems).

Carbon dioxide is the largest single contributor to human-induced climate change. NASA describes it as 'the principal control knob that governs the temperature of Earth'. Although other factors (such as other long-lived greenhouse gases, water vapour and clouds) contribute to Earth's greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas that humans can control in the atmosphere.

The two most abundant gases in the atmosphere are nitrogen (comprising 78 per cent of the dry atmosphere) and oxygen (21 per cent), but they have almost no greenhouse effects.

Carbon dioxide and the carbon cycle
All living organisms contain carbon, as do gases (such as carbon dioxide) and minerals (such as diamond, peat and coal). The movement of carbon between large natural reservoirs in rocks, the ocean, the atmosphere, plants, soil and fossil fuels is known as the carbon cycle.

The carbon cycle includes the movement of carbon dioxide:

• into and out of our atmosphere
• between the atmosphere, plants and other living organisms through photosynthesis, respiration and decay
• between the atmosphere and the top of the oceans.

The carbon cycle, showing the movement of carbon between land, the atmosphere and the oceans. Yellow numbers are natural fluxes and red numbers are human contributions in gigatonnes of carbon per year. White numbers indicate stored carbon (The Carbon Cycle , NASA).

On longer time scales, chemical weathering and limestone and fossil fuel formation decrease atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, whereas volcanoes return carbon to the atmosphere. This is the dominant mechanism of control of carbon dioxide on timescales of millions of years.

Because the carbon cycle is essentially a closed system, any decrease in one reservoir of carbon leads to an increase in others. For at least the last several hundred thousand years, up until the Industrial Revolution, natural sources of carbon dioxide were in approximate balance with natural ‘sinks’, producing relatively stable levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. ‘Sinks’ are oceans, plants and soils, which absorb more carbon dioxide than they emit (in contrast, carbon sources emit more than they absorb).

Increases in greenhouse gases due to human activities
Carbon dioxide is being added to the atmosphere faster than it can be removed by other parts of the carbon cycle.

Since the Industrial Revolution there has been a large increase in human activities such as fossil fuel burning, land clearing and agriculture, which affect the release and uptake of carbon dioxide.

According to the most recent Emissions Overview, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are produced in NSW by the following activities or sources:

• stationary energy sources, such as coal-fired power stations (47 per cent)
• transport (18 per cent)
• coal mines (12 per cent)
• agriculture (11 per cent)
• land use (7 per cent)
• land change (3 per cent)
• waste (2 per cent).

Carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels carries a different chemical fingerprint from that released by natural sources such as respiration and volcanoes. This makes it possible to identify the contribution of human activity to greenhouse gas production.

Data collected by CSIROshow that the concentration of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere in 2018 was approximately 404 parts per million. The level of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere is now higher than at any time over the past 800,000—and possibly 20 million—years.

Global atmospheric concentrations of the other greenhouse gases (methane and nitrous oxide) also now exceed pre-industrial values. For the latest measurements, visit CSIRO’s Cape Grim Greenhouse Gas Data.

https://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/About-climate-change-in-NSW/Causes-of-climate-change

 

[basilio]

NASA's website seems good to use as an explainer for CC and the role of greenhouse gases.
https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

In fact the whole website has managed to turn the issues around CC into accessible bite sized chunks. Excellent value.

 

[Darc Knight]

Another thing 2GB likes to promote is "global cooling". They have had Ian Plimer on there, I just checked he claims cooling not warming has occurred, so to NASA's site we go:

"Global temperature rise

• 
  
  The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere.4 Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months that make up the year — from January through September, with the exception of June — were the warmest on record for those respective months. "

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/


This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures. Seventeen of the 18 warmest years in the 136-year record all have occurred since 2001, with the exception of 1998. The year 2016 ranks as the warmest on record. (Source: NASA/GISS). This research is broadly consistent with similar constructions prepared by the Climatic Research Unit and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

 

[Darc Knight]

December 13, 2018
Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise was mitigated by snowfall

A new NASA-led study has determined that an increase in snowfall accumulation over Antarctica during the 20th century mitigated sea level rise by 0.4 inches. However, Antarctica’s additional ice mass gained from snowfall makes up for just about a third of its current ice loss.

“Our findings don’t mean that Antarctica is growing; it’s still losing mass, even with the extra snowfall,” said Brooke Medley, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published in Nature Climate Change on Dec. 10. “What it means, however, is that without these gains, we would have experienced even more sea level rise in the 20th century.”

The polar ice sheets grow via snow accumulation and shrink through melting and the production of icebergs. Presently, both ice sheets are imbalanced –losing more ice annually than they are gaining– and their ice loss is estimated to be currently causing about a half of the observed sea level rise. Sea level adjusts to changes in snowfall, which modulates how much water is locked into the ice sheets.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2836/...-to-sea-level-rise-was-mitigated-by-snowfall/

 

[qldfrog]

Unpleasant truth
Until you reduce population, we are doomed..and probably already are as population is already too high and still increasing
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-2018-thermal-coal-imports-173632125.html
Btw Basilio, interesting science around the gravitational effect of the iceberg mass

 

[basilio]

Unpleasant truth
Until you reduce population, we are doomed..and probably already are as population is already too high and still increasing
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-2018-thermal-coal-imports-173632125.html
Btw Basilio, interesting science around the gravitational effect of the iceberg mass

It was wasn't it ! Actually of course the gravitational pull is coming from the entire 3000 metres of ice on the Antarctic continent. Lot of mass there...

 

[Darc Knight]

Just to keep a track of this: I had Alan Joans on this morning. I heard him claiming the concenus on CC was BS. He also made a remark about Chicago freezing atm as being some proof CC is a hoax.

I think it's a good idea to keep a list of these people and their claims.

 

[SirRumpole]

Just to keep a track of this: I had Alan Joans on this morning. I heard him claiming the concenus on CC was BS. He also made a remark about Chicago freezing atm as being some proof CC is a hoax.

I think it's a good idea to keep a list of these people and their claims.

Most people with intelligence realise Groans is a fool and a fraud. He got the Qld floods as wrong as he could get and had to pay for it.

Credibility zero.

 

[Darc Knight]

Most people with intelligence realise Groans is a fool and a fraud. He got the Qld floods as wrong as he could get and had to pay for it.

Credibility zero.

I don't believe it's a lack of intelligence making him say these things.

 

[basilio]

Most people with intelligence realise Groans is a fool and a fraud. He got the Qld floods as wrong as he could get and had to pay for it.

Credibility zero.

Sure. But the fact is many millions of people believe what he and Andrew Bolt and others say. These include a core of politicians who have resisted all efforts to take action on GW because they say it is a hoax.
And of course there are still plenty of posters on ASF who echo these beliefs and repeat because Alan or Andrew say something it has to right..

 

[Joules MM1]

The Ice Age‏ @Jamie_Woodward_ 16h16 hours ago
Retreating ice exposes Arctic landscape unseen for 120,000 years

https://www.livescience.com/64605-arctic-glaciers-melt-hidden-landscape.html

 

[qldfrog]

Would be an amazing fossicking ground

 

[Ann]

Amidst Global Warming Hysteria, NASA Expects Global Cooling


Those promoting CO2 as the reason for global warming are hucksters and those taken in by hucksters.


Please consider NASA Sees Climate Cooling Trend Thanks to Low Sun Activity.


“We see a cooling trend,” said Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.” MORE>>>>

 

[Darc Knight]

Geez, even I know it's the mid atmosphere that heats (creating CC) and the outer atmosphere that cools due to CO2. But I'll let one of the more learned posters explain it.


Wait, does that make me a Hucksteree?

 

[rederob]

Amidst Global Warming Hysteria, NASA Expects Global Cooling
Those promoting CO2 as the reason for global warming are hucksters and those taken in by hucksters.
Please consider NASA Sees Climate Cooling Trend Thanks to Low Sun Activity.
“We see a cooling trend,” said Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.” MORE>>>>

Ann, that's gross ignorance of climate science at it's very best.
Nobody lives at the top of the planet's atmosphere - we live at the surface.
The top of the atmosphere must cool because more heat is being trapped below it.
That's what science forecasts under AGW theory.

 

[Ann]

...and a little light relief from Dilbert's creator.....

He is talking about Michael Mann, the hockey stick man!

 

[rederob]

He is talking about Michael Mann, the hockey stick man!

It was a clever cartoon, but is now so overdone and soooooo dated.
The thing is, Mann's original data remains largely unchanged, with that of many others who have presented similar reconstructions..
Paleoclimate widens probabilities as we delve further into the past, and that information is provided with "best fit".
As is always the case with those trying to debunk climate change, they are best at their work when digging into the past, and seem clueless about what the future portends.

 

[Ann]

What the 17th century’s “Little Ice Age” teaches us about climate change

Once upon a time in Europe, the winters got very very cold and the summers got unbearably hot. “The spring of this year was like winter, cold and wet, the wine blossom terrible, and the harvest bad,” wrote the Swiss theologian Heinrich Bullinger in 1570.

Initially, this seemed like a temporary problem, just one bad year. So across the continent, cultivators shrugged off their poor harvests, and vintners sold wine made of sour grapes which consumers drank angrily as they contemplated rising grain pric
But the extreme weather continued, season after season after season, until abnormal became the new normal. As William Shakespeare put it in the 1593 play Richard III, “Now is the winter of our discontent.”

In his book Nature’s Mutiny, to be published in March by WW Norton & Company, German journalist Philipp Blom posits that Shakespeare wrote those words as a literal description of the string of difficult winters he’d just endured. This period of extreme weather, which would continue for more than 100 years, is now known as the “Little Ice Age,” and Blom argues that if we look back at its effects in Europe—where they were best documented—we’ll better understand how we got to where we are today and anticipate what’s ahead as climate change increasingly affects our lives.
.....more

 

[Ann]

Perhaps the Global Warmer promoters need a little soft drink to offer to the Children as they are organized to march....

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