Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View

iced earth · 6 March 2010

Hi , Everybody

In this topic I want to share my Technical ideas. I would be thankful if you participate and criticize my analyses.

I've had the same topic in another forum since 2007.

Best Regards
Mohsen

weird · 7 March 2010

What return are u expecting from the trade ? 10 % ? Yeah.

Where is the stop u are placing ?

Ok ... Your BHP trade has now been deleted. Signing off.

iced earth · 7 March 2010

BHP - AX - 5 MARCH 2010

We can see two upward channel . The white one is longer with sharper slope, the other is in shorter time and with slighter slope.we are at the lower line of the white channel which could be a support line.
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from 20 days EMA, Momentum and MACD we would see inter signals.

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TAIO and PARABOLIC SAR show upward trend as well

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the long term look :

iced earth · 7 March 2010

weird said:
What return are u expecting from the trade ? 10 % ? Yeah.

Where is the stop u are placing ?

Ok ... Your BHP trade has now been deleted. Signing off.

thsnks for your comment,

Do you think 10 % is low??? actually I am thinking of 50-51 as the target( upper line of white channel, it must be more than 15%. Important thing is the trend is completely upward and we are at the support line and in accordance with the trend...

I would place an SL at 38.6.

BHP has also strong balance sheet & Income which leave little room for any RISK. the global recovery also would apply demands for Iron ore, base metals...

iced earth · 12 March 2010

GOLD DAILY - 12 MARCH 2010

Possible upward Head & Shoulders in Gold-Daily. First the Right Shoulder should be formed, then the neckline be broken, if these scenarios happen Gold can get 1225 ( as December 2009)

brty · 12 March 2010

Iced Earth,

You have a theory that trend channels work and observation that BHP is in one. Have you back tested your theory that this will be a money maker?? By this I mean looking/finding hundreds of times stocks are in a channel, finding out what happens after they leave the bottom channel, after you have identified it as a channel.

In other words does this type of trading result in consistent profits?? Have you tested a different approach with a lower stop loss, say something like putting the position on when the stock reached the $40 level of the larger channel, rather than waiting a few weeks after the event, and having your stop at the $38.60 level??

brty

iced earth · 12 March 2010

brty said:
Iced Earth,

You have a theory that trend channels work and observation that BHP is in one. Have you back tested your theory that this will be a money maker?? By this I mean looking/finding hundreds of times stocks are in a channel, finding out what happens after they leave the bottom channel, after you have identified it as a channel.

In other words does this type of trading result in consistent profits?? Have you tested a different approach with a lower stop loss, say something like putting the position on when the stock reached the $40 level of the larger channel, rather than waiting a few weeks after the event, and having your stop at the $38.60 level??

brty

Dear brty

I've had benefit from channel patterns many times, of course it is not the only pattern and Technical analysis which I am using but channels are my favorites. no doubt that stop loss should be used in the channels ( and all other technical tools) to prevent a disastrous results. But if we are not careful about where we should put our SL , if it is too close, it might be touched and then price starts to rise up again. I have learnt from experience ( Stock market and Forex) that we sholudnt put SL too tight or we would be sorry later on.

Regards
Mohsen

akkopower · 13 March 2010

iced earth said:
thsnks for your comment,

Do you think 10 % is low??? actually I am thinking of 50-51 as the target( upper line of white channel, it must be more than 15%. Important thing is the trend is completely upward and we are at the support line and in accordance with the trend...

I would place an SL at 38.6.

BHP has also strong balance sheet & Income which leave little room for any RISK. the global recovery also would apply demands for Iron ore, base metals...

hey ice,
just a few of my thoughts.

it seems the stock has risk, dropped almost 12% over 14 trading days or so recently, any sniffles from china/world could do it again and again and..........

19% gain to $51, 8.7% loss to $38.6, getting 2.2:1ish

does look like a good bet if u bought, set sell triggers and sit back for a while. could even be better with a higher stop loss @ 40.4.

50 being an all time high seems to be a bold sell trigger, might give a lot of resistance could consider selling a bit lower.

The trade could take a while: the last time the stock rose 19% to get here was 8 months ago.

Could be a bit of resistance at $43.5-44.5, which it looks like we just hit.
My bet will be to buy at 44.6 ish and sell at 47.5ish with a stop loss around 42.5ish (or where the next/ a future turning point is, or maybe even a trailing stop), getting something like, 1.38:1. nowhere near as good as your 2.2:1. mine should be a quick 1 week to 1 month trade.

Sir Osisofliver · 15 March 2010

Hi Iced,

How much do you know about divergence patterns?

When you are charting channels, it's always good to look at whether there is a bullish or bearish divergence in the stock you are examining.

http://www.aboutcurrency.com/university/fxchartpatterns/bullish_bearish_divergence_pattern.shtml

This is a small piece on divergence from a currency site, but the same principle applies to equity.

Attached is a chart of BHP showing potential divergence.

This doesn't mean that BHP will fall back to $20 overnight, but is indicative to me that the potential for negative news (IE murmurs regarding growth from China), will result in sharp downwards movements.

Cheers

Sir O

iced earth · 20 March 2010

Sir Osisofliver said:
Hi Iced,

How much do you know about divergence patterns?

When you are charting channels, it's always good to look at whether there is a bullish or bearish divergence in the stock you are examining.

http://www.aboutcurrency.com/university/fxchartpatterns/bullish_bearish_divergence_pattern.shtml

This is a small piece on divergence from a currency site, but the same principle applies to equity.

Attached is a chart of BHP showing potential divergence.

This doesn't mean that BHP will fall back to $20 overnight, but is indicative to me that the potential for negative news (IE murmurs regarding growth from China), will result in sharp downwards movements.

Cheers

Sir O

Dear Sir Osisofliver

Thanks for your comment. I know all about divergence between Price and Indicators ( such as RSI , CCI, MOMENTUM,MACD,...)both Normal and Hidden.

And as far as I know in MACD histogram you cant say you have divergence if the histogram has some lows under zero line ( as your example)...

iced earth · 20 March 2010

GOLD- 19 MARCH 2010
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Possible bearish Head & Shoulders: if the neckline breaks completely the target would be around 1050 (fig1)

Today Gold has touched the neck line ( after India’s Central Bank Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rates ) but it is bot broken yet. ( fig2)

iced earth · 20 March 2010

Sir Osisofliver said:
Hi Iced,

How much do you know about divergence patterns?

When you are charting channels, it's always good to look at whether there is a bullish or bearish divergence in the stock you are examining.

http://www.aboutcurrency.com/university/fxchartpatterns/bullish_bearish_divergence_pattern.shtml

This is a small piece on divergence from a currency site, but the same principle applies to equity.

Attached is a chart of BHP showing potential divergence.

This doesn't mean that BHP will fall back to $20 overnight, but is indicative to me that the potential for negative news (IE murmurs regarding growth from China), will result in sharp downwards movements.

Cheers

Sir O

and more importantly your uptrend line should be passed from tops not lows ( as my example at the attachment)

Mohsen

iced earth · 7 April 2010

AUD/USD Is on edge of breaking a very important long term resistance line. If it continues we should see significant jump in AUD/USD

tech/a · 7 April 2010

Rising interest rates wont hurt either.

iced earth · 15 April 2010

oil-WTI, 14 April 2010 :
move in 2 channels and working the white support line
if the blue channel breaks, target around $102
in this case the red channel would be broken as well with target around $120 !!!

iced earth · 20 April 2010

GOLD - 20 APRIL 2010:

After breaking the neckline,Gold has returned and touched the neck line ( pull back) and now ready to rose again. the Target of this Bullish pattern would be considered around $1230

tech/a · 20 April 2010

This is one of the most amusing threads I have seen.

The pattern found and evidently identified as a head and shoulders pattern both Bullish AND bearish morphs on a weekly basis it seems.

The poster has no idea how to trade it.

I'm also interested in his response to Sir O
After asking for opinion and getting it it seems he is expert in all forms of analysis and requires no help.

Happy to oblige.

iced earth · 20 April 2010

I welcome all opinions and help.

I also in buy position for Gold. I dont claim that I know everything but I am eager to learn more but I know definitely all patterns and their usages.

what I answer about definition of Divergence is base on many prominent book ( such as J.Murphy...)

It is not that odd we observe both bearish and bullish H&S in one chart. but the bearish has failed after Gold passed up the neckline once passed down.

at the end , I am glad that this tread is amused some if not useful.

iced earth · 28 April 2010

GOLD-27 April 2010

Bullish Head&Shoulders with goal around $ 1230

iced earth · 7 May 2010

GOLD-7 May 2010

as predicted on 27 April , Bullish Head&Shoulders with goal around $ 1230 is completing

Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View

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