Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Zinc the metal for 2006

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Info got all skewed


Look at it in attached word doc,
 

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michael_selway said:
Hi when u say "December 2007 solstice 18-24122007" do u mean?

- Huge crash of ZFX
- Huge crash for zinc stocks
- Huge crash for All Ords
- Huge crash for all world markets esp DOW?

Can you pleasee see if the "stars' have changed since?

thx

MS
Click to expand...

:)

Hi Michael,

Nothing changes about the planetary cycles, except
our interpretation, sometimes ..... :)

As for ZFX ..... simply, the expected strong rally going
into the December 2007 solstice, should come to an end
and we'll probably see trading go flat, then pullback.

Every year, there's a few positive ZFX annual cycles,
around 14-15 April, 17-18 August and 16-17 December.

..... for 2006 only however, we'll probably see ZFX go flat-
to-down, from around 16122006 - 08012007 ..... that same
negative cycle for ZFX should also repeat, around mid-July 2007.

happy days

yogi

:)
 
yogi-in-oz said:
:)

Hi Michael,

Nothing changes about the planetary cycles, except
our interpretation, sometimes ..... :)

As for ZFX ..... simply, the expected strong rally going
into the December 2007 solstice, should come to an end
and we'll probably see trading go flat, then pullback.

Every year, there's a few positive ZFX annual cycles,
around 14-15 April, 17-18 August and 16-17 December.

..... for 2006 only however, we'll probably see ZFX go flat-
to-down, from around 16122006 - 08012007 ..... that same
negative cycle for ZFX should also repeat, around mid-July 2007.

happy days

yogi

:)
Click to expand...

Thx Yogi and YT

Btw found it

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx (click on magnifying glass)

Now we can track daily movements/breakdown in LME Live Warrants!

lmezinc9vt.jpg


lmezinc7hv.jpg


LME Stocks go "out" from Cancelled Warrants. LME Stocks go "in" to Live Warrants. Live Warrants when "sold" become Cancelled Warrants.

yeah it appears New Orleans 850 tonnes were added to Live Warrants on 22/05/06

thx

MS
 
Crude-oil futures rallied to their highest level in a week, with a forecast of an active 2006 hurricane season acting as a tailwind. Crude for July delivery was last up $1.09 at $71.05 a barrel. See Futures Movers.
Click to expand...

If New Orleans gets hit again, imagine what that would do to the price of zinc?

Zinc should even go up upon speculation of this... most of the supplies are concentrated there....

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...377-4EA5-AD7E-40A45E662053}&siteid=mktw&dist=
 
Zinc stock levels are starting to fall rapidly,


Stocks down to 242k with 'on Warrant' Stocks down to 168k, dropping by 1kt a day so fundamentals still remain very very strong!
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Zinc stock levels are starting to fall rapidly,


Stocks down to 242k with 'on Warrant' Stocks down to 168k, dropping by 1kt a day so fundamentals still remain very very strong!
Click to expand...
YT
Don't get overexcited.
Zinc drawdown rates have actually been reducing at most locations except New Orleans over recent weeks.
Although the picture for zinc is not poor, the recent fundamentals for copper and nickel suggest these metals in the near term will find strong, favourable action.
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Zinc stock levels are starting to fall rapidly,


Stocks down to 242k with 'on Warrant' Stocks down to 168k, dropping by 1kt a day so fundamentals still remain very very strong!
Click to expand...

yeah was wondering why price increased so much. Zinc live warrants below 170k!

zinc5jo.jpg


Besides 'new orleans" looks like quite a few were bought from "leghorm"

thx

MS
 
rederob said:
YT
Don't get overexcited.
Zinc drawdown rates have actually been reducing at most locations except New Orleans over recent weeks.
Although the picture for zinc is not poor, the recent fundamentals for copper and nickel suggest these metals in the near term will find strong, favourable action.
Click to expand...


Zinc Stocks have fallen to their lowest level in 5 years!

Take a look @ the graphs,

The 1yr graph is almost a straight liner decline after stock increase in June 2005,
 

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YOUNG_TRADER said:
Zinc Stocks have fallen to their lowest level in 5 years!

Take a look @ the graphs,

The 1yr graph is almost a straight liner decline after stock increase in June 2005,
Click to expand...
YT
The charts are heartening.
My point is only that most out-side activity is presently at New Orleans whereas we were getting draws across the globe in recent months. It's not a negative thing, just not a strong positive.
A few months ago the ratio of cancelled to total LME zinc inventory was over 40%, while today it's only 30%.
The reduced rate of decline is simply an indication of weakening trend, rather than of weakness per se.
As I have posted elsewhere on nickel, that is a metal which is experiencing a sharp fall in stock levels and an increasing cancellation ratio: For those that trade, the traffic signals for nickel are now "green" while for zinc the green light globe needs replacement.
 
rederob said:
YT

As I have posted elsewhere on nickel, that is a metal which is experiencing a sharp fall in stock levels and an increasing cancellation ratio: For those that trade, the traffic signals for nickel are now "green" while for zinc the green light globe needs replacement.
Click to expand...

Rob, do you find it strange that the Ni producers don't seem to bounce around as much on Nickel spot price as Zinc. I don't follow them all, but if you compare ZFX to Zinc price the too roll hand in hand whereas the movements for SMY do not seem as pronounced(though they are 90% unhedged) do you think maybe the Ni market is skeptical of the $10+/lb mark always suspects a recoil to $8-9 once speculation dries up?

Just a thought.
 
Kipp said:
Rob, do you find it strange that the Ni producers don't seem to bounce around as much on Nickel spot price as Zinc. I don't follow them all, but if you compare ZFX to Zinc price the too roll hand in hand whereas the movements for SMY do not seem as pronounced(though they are 90% unhedged) do you think maybe the Ni market is skeptical of the $10+/lb mark always suspects a recoil to $8-9 once speculation dries up?

Just a thought.
Click to expand...
I do find it strange, but nickel is fickle!
Notice that nickel inventories move up and down comparatively more rapidly than zinc, so perhaps players are a lot more wary of nickel's downside (than are keen to punt on upside).

I just look for long term value and good entry prices: Right now I think SMY is an excellent proposition, not just for their nickel but also their copper/cobalt byproduct credits.
 
rederob said:
YT
The charts are heartening.
My point is only that most out-side activity is presently at New Orleans whereas we were getting draws across the globe in recent months. It's not a negative thing, just not a strong positive.
A few months ago the ratio of cancelled to total LME zinc inventory was over 40%, while today it's only 30%.
The reduced rate of decline is simply an indication of weakening trend, rather than of weakness per se.
As I have posted elsewhere on nickel, that is a metal which is experiencing a sharp fall in stock levels and an increasing cancellation ratio: For those that trade, the traffic signals for nickel are now "green" while for zinc the green light globe needs replacement.
Click to expand...

yeah i guess the main danger is "in" which gets added to live warrants, if that increases rapidly, its a signal that the outside supply is larger than demand

thx

ms
 
Zinc stock levels continue to fall!


Total stocks down to 229,250 t's they were 242,025 2 Weeks ago
Thats a 5% decline in 2 weeks

On warrant stocks are @ 158,275 t's they were @ 168,775 2 weeks ago
Thats a 6% decline in 2 weeks

Supply/Demand fundamentals are still dangerously tight, once volatility settles I expect Zinc to charge towards $5000 t

Be prepared!
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Zinc stock levels continue to fall!


Total stocks down to 229,250 t's they were 242,025 2 Weeks ago
Thats a 5% decline in 2 weeks

On warrant stocks are @ 158,275 t's they were @ 168,775 2 weeks ago
Thats a 6% decline in 2 weeks

Supply/Demand fundamentals are still dangerously tight, once volatility settles I expect Zinc to charge towards $5000 t

Be prepared!
Click to expand...

yeh i agree 5000 tonne/soon

but in the short term; the market focus is on inflation leading to higher interest rates; and slowing economic growth in the US (which is still the largest economy in the world dont forget)

so its either time ur entry/top up well, or be prepared to wait a few months

by end of the year, zinc supplies will be very close to full depletion and spot prices will spike - so make sure ur holding zinc stocks when that happens!
 
nizar said:
yeh i agree 5000 tonne/soon

but in the short term; the market focus is on inflation leading to higher interest rates; and slowing economic growth in the US (which is still the largest economy in the world dont forget)

so its either time ur entry/top up well, or be prepared to wait a few months

by end of the year, zinc supplies will be very close to full depletion and spot prices will spike - so make sure ur holding zinc stocks when that happens!
Click to expand...

Rederob, ZInc Live Warrants went up alot (from singapore), do you knwo why?

lme1fh.jpg


thx

MS
 
was gonna ask the same thing..... 8000 in....

coz if zinc loses its fundamental support (of supply shortage) then its back to the long term average for zinc... oh no.. :banghead:
 

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