Zinc the metal for 2006

[professor_frink]

Do u know what, i think Zinc LME stocks will go down to 0 by Oct 2006

I know that in mid 2007 supply will exceed demand as forecast by many, however its too late!

In which case yes it will go to $4,000 us/t, but not only that, since its so low, it may turn into a huge bubble, looking at $10,000+ us/t which may last a few months before it crashes back to normal levels like maybe $4,000 us/t?

Time to put your house on zinc stocks u think? or wait a bit longer first and see if the LME supplies can reach closer to 0?

Just a thought

thx

MS

Hey MS, seen as though your a fundie you could probably answer this- what would be fair value on ZFX at 10,00 us/t?

 

[michael_selway]

Hey MS, seen as though your a fundie you could probably answer this- what would be fair value on ZFX at 10,00 us/t?

hm if assuming $10,000+ is only a shorterm thing (a few months)...ZFX can probabaly reach a peak of $25-30. However if it is a longer term (6-12months) thing $35-40. It really depends on the supply increase response in 2007 as analysts have forecasted

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 35.9 149.5 185.0 141.6
DPS 4.0 32.5 44.0 29.0

thx

MS

 

[professor_frink]

hm if assuming $10,000+ is only a shorterm thing (a few months)...ZFX can probabaly reach a peak of $25-30. However if it is a longer term (6-12months) thing $35-40. It really depends on the supply increase response in 2007 as analysts have forecasted

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 35.9 149.5 185.0 141.6
DPS 4.0 32.5 44.0 29.0

thx

MS

cheers mate- will try not to let that influence my T/A too much!

 

[tech/a]

INL

Been on this a week,may slip under the zinc radar.

 

[michael_selway]

INL

Been on this a week,may slip under the zinc radar.

Hi is INL producing/selling zinc currently?

professor_frink how do you see ZFX techically?

Also the above assumes no external factors affecting All Ords in general

thx

MS

 

[tech/a]

Michael.

yes.
they also have a way of extracting from tailings as well as a mine.

I'm no fundie but thats all I know plus they are technically strong,I traded a breakout on volume.Nothing magical.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Intec CLAIMS to have found a solution to recovering huge amounts of zinc from tailing dam stock piles, yet it hasn't been proven on a fully operational basis,


Worley Parsons are doing the BFS for them, I'm pretty sure the pilot plant worked but still there is risk, ie recovery, floatation, if the chemicals don't work properly etc, if it works though it would be worth well over $1 BILLION from memory, but thats if it works,



My opinion, buy companies that are in production or will be very soon,

My favourites are CBH, TZN, JML, I don't hold CBH yet, will wait a bit as a lot of issues @ 26c recently should put lid, I hold JML and TZN

 

[nizar]

My favourites are KZL and CBH

 

[Kipp]

Heya Folks,
could someone explain the LME stockpiling system or direct em to a link that does. Obviously from the Zinc and Nickel charts it is intimately (and inversely) linked to prices. But surely the LME only controls stockpiles for the for the U.K. so it doesn't have control over GLOBAL commodity prices?

And Michael- I enjoy your posts but aren't you getting a bit carried away with commsec and their forecasts? How accurate are they really? I mean the MAp EPS forecast was something pathetic like 15c for 2006... Are they any other brokers/websites offering free forecast services?

 

[michael_selway]

Heya Folks,
could someone explain the LME stockpiling system or direct em to a link that does. Obviously from the Zinc and Nickel charts it is intimately (and inversely) linked to prices. But surely the LME only controls stockpiles for the for the U.K. so it doesn't have control over GLOBAL commodity prices?

And Michael- I enjoy your posts but aren't you getting a bit carried away with commsec and their forecasts? How accurate are they really? I mean the MAp EPS forecast was something pathetic like 15c for 2006... Are they any other brokers/websites offering free forecast services?

LME is kind of like a warehouse for global base metal storage, usualy excess supply over demand will be added and when demand exceeds supply, it will be shipped out ("cancelled" first). The other places where they store basemetals is Nymex (Comex) and Shanghai although they only hold Copper and Aluminium below are the links

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lmewarehouse.html
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nymexwarehouse.html
http://www.shfe.com.cn/estatements/secondpage.jsp?subjectpid=905&subjectid=9053&startpage=1

Btw what do u mean when u say LME stocks being inversely linked to prices for Nickel? For Zinc I understand your point





Well in regards to MAP, MIG, BBI having decreasing EPS (high forward PEs), i think someone mentioned to me before that its due to "devaluations" of their assets rather decreasing cashflows problems for these infrastruture stocks.

MAP - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 68.8 46.3 53.4 18.5
DPS 20.0 25.0 27.5 30.0

MIG - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 43.8 34.4 15.5 9.4
DPS 77.5 21.0 23.0 25.0

BBI - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS -0.8 5.4 3.4 4.5
DPS 10.6 13.0 13.5 14.3

Comsec forecasts are just consensus forecasts of the many brokers out there. Whether they evenuate is another story but they are legitamite forecasts. Just have to make sure they are updated.

You can read free broker news below (broker news archive), which have foreacasts and target prices yes.

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/quote.asp

thx

MS

Thermal Coal

 

[Kipp]

LME is kind of like a warehouse for global base metal storage, usualy excess supply over demand will be added and when demand exceeds supply, it will be shipped out ("cancelled" first). The other places where they store basemetals is Nymex (Comex) and Shanghai although they only hold Copper and Aluminium below are the links

Thanks for that, and the links.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

As requested Michael, we started on a long analysis
on zinc prices, but not having any recent historical
data, it proved too complex .....

..... suffice to say, we expect more of the same from
zinc prices, until about the December 2007 solstice
18-24122007.

-----

For most traders, it is more PRACTICAL to analyze the
individual zinc stocks. While the zinc price may be
the fundamental driver for the industry as a whole,
not all those stocks will participate at the same time,
due to a wide variation in their own natural cycles.

-----

In fact, we can line up all the zinc stocks mentioned in
this thread, around the 360 degree dial and come up
with a likely sequence, WHEN they will react to the
same cycle one-by-one, as each aspect progresses,
around the dial.

For example, right now, we can see that JML should be
triggered on 12-13072006, with ZFX a few days later,
on 17072006 .....

Then, for the same cycle, the order goes AIM, INL, KZL,
TZN, CBH and UCL, all on different dates .....

-----

..... and on ZFX ..... so, you think it's high now???

Come back in December 2006 for another look,
but more importantly will be the run up into
December 2007 ..... should be HUGE !~!

If we get time on this end, this could be a good
project ..... "tag-the-zinc-stock" ..... lol

have a great weekend all

yogi

 

[professor_frink]

Hi folks,

As requested Michael, we started on a long analysis
on zinc prices, but not having any recent historical
data, it proved too complex .....

..... suffice to say, we expect more of the same from
zinc prices, until about the December 2007 solstice
18-24122007.

-----

For most traders, it is more PRACTICAL to analyze the
individual zinc stocks. While the zinc price may be
the fundamental driver for the industry as a whole,
not all those stocks will participate at the same time,
due to a wide variation in their own natural cycles.

-----

In fact, we can line up all the zinc stocks mentioned in
this thread, around the 360 degree dial and come up
with a likely sequence, WHEN they will react to the
same cycle one-by-one, as each aspect progresses,
around the dial.

For example, right now, we can see that JML should be
triggered on 12-13072006, with ZFX a few days later,
on 17072006 .....

Then, for the same cycle, the order goes AIM, INL, KZL,
TZN, CBH and UCL, all on different dates .....

-----

..... and on ZFX ..... so, you think it's high now???

Come back in December 2006 for another look,
but more importantly will be the run up into
December 2007 ..... should be HUGE !~!

If we get time on this end, this could be a good
project ..... "tag-the-zinc-stock" ..... lol

have a great weekend all

yogi

Hi yogi, when you say that a stock should be "triggered" on a certain date, what exactly do you mean?

 

[michael_selway]

Hi folks,

As requested Michael, we started on a long analysis
on zinc prices, but not having any recent historical
data, it proved too complex .....

..... suffice to say, we expect more of the same from
zinc prices, until about the December 2007 solstice
18-24122007.

..... and on ZFX ..... so, you think it's high now???

Come back in December 2006 for another look,
but more importantly will be the run up into
December 2007 ..... should be HUGE !~!

If we get time on this end, this could be a good
project ..... "tag-the-zinc-stock" ..... lol

have a great weekend all

yogi

Hi Yogi thanks for that

Just wondering when you say "should be HUGE" is that according to the "stars", your own personal view, or just the view based on LME supplies are decreasing in general. Thanks

Also does it say about PEM and KZL?

MS

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi Frinkle,

Gann got into Sepharial's head, about a century ago and
came up with the theory, that every market has its own
individual time cycle signature or "natural vibration" ...

Being a very clever pom, our astrologer Sepharial also
obliged us, by writing extensively about his observations.

Such vibrations are really points on the 360 degree dial,
where a particular market (or stock) will see a change in
traders' sentiment, as a planet transits such points OR
makes a common geometric aspect to those point(s).

Very simple stuff, but also quite effective in confirming
our technical analysis, in most markets.

have a great weekend

yogi

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi MS,

..... no consideration given to LME stockpiles, at all.

That "HUGE" was referring to ZFX astroanalysis, as not only
will it be enjoying some very favourable sentiment, in its
own right ..... but, we also see one ruler of zinc making a
rendezvous with the ruler of all things underground, at late
degrees in the sign, so there will likely be a significant
"expansion" in zinc, including the price .....

..... that may end quite abruptly, after the December 2007
solstice .....

-----

On KZL example ..... that same time cycle should be positive
around, 28072006 and PEM very soon after, on 28-31072006
and should also show positive sentiment ... ???

Given the positive outlook for zinc stocks, we will probably
work slowly through each zinc stock, posting key dates and
supporting analysis, as we go .....

happy days

yogi

 

[michael_selway]

Hi MS,

..... no consideration given to LME stockpiles, at all.

That "HUGE" was referring to ZFX astroanalysis, as not only
will it be enjoying some very favourable sentiment, in its
own right ..... but, we also see one ruler of zinc making a
rendezvous with the ruler of all things underground, at late
degrees in the sign, so there will likely be a significant
"expansion" in zinc, including the price .....

..... that may end quite abruptly, after the December 2007
solstice .....

-----

On KZL example ..... that same time cycle should be positive
around, 28072006 and PEM very soon after, on 28-31072006
and should also show positive sentiment ... ???

Given the positive outlook for zinc stocks, we will probably
work slowly through each zinc stock, posting key dates and
supporting analysis, as we go .....

happy days

yogi

wow amazing thanks, i see soemthing huge in ZFX also by year end (mainly to do with zinc prices, and also all that cashflow possible M&A)

thx

MS

 

[professor_frink]

zinc made a big move overnight. Should be interesting to see what the zinc stocks get up to on monday

 

[rederob]

Pro FrinK
Toss up a chart of nickel and compare the 2 over the last month.
Money ebbs and flows, and while zinc will get a fair share, the new kid on the block is also looking good.

 

[professor_frink]

no worries mate. I've put the 5 year for both up as well. Enjoy your weekend.