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Zinc the metal for 2006
- Thread starter YOUNG_TRADER
- Start date
sam76 said:
Your inventory chart is not up-to-date. Zinc inventory rises 2550mt today. But zinc price still rise. I think zinc is undervalued now.
I had written in my blog that when we access metals, we have to look at fundamental, technical, and funds' intention. Fundamental is only one of them.
brerwallabi
The Oracle
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Right now the miners and the smelters are doing a fair bit of negotiating for treatment charges,so with zinc prices recently at incredible highs there would certainly be a benefit to the miners to bring the price down.
I think I would want to be seeing $1.40 right now and LME inventories holding steady.
I think I would want to be seeing $1.40 right now and LME inventories holding steady.
michael_selway
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brerwallabi said:
its a good case scenario for zinc, like maybe that the big fall in zinc price is a good thing, i.e. for LME supplies to fall further first, before zinc price rises later?
thx
MS
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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imajica said:
yeah the fall in zinc price is actulally a good thing, it will make LME stocks drop
thx
MS
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Zinc April 09,21:56
Bid/Ask 1.6369 - 1.6505
Change +0.0975 +6.34%
Low/High 1.5393 - 1.6505
ROFL, 6%, CAPPED @ DAILY LIMIT
Zinfiex is a win!
Bid/Ask 1.6369 - 1.6505
Change +0.0975 +6.34%
Low/High 1.5393 - 1.6505
ROFL, 6%, CAPPED @ DAILY LIMIT
Zinfiex is a win!
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ok guys zinc looks like its on the move again
it seems china was unable to stop the inevitable and zinc stocks continue to plunge. CBH, ZFX, KZL and now soon to be producing JML looking great. JML have held up very well and are 10% or so off their highs. but i now see large upside in KZL.
China's Zinc Exports May Plunge, Boosting World Price (Update4)
By Xiao Yu
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of zinc, may slash exports of the metal this quarter, supporting near-record prices, traders and analysts, including Feng Juncong of Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., said.
Net exports of refined zinc may drop as much as 45 percent to between 50,000 and 60,000 metric tons in the three months ending in June, as domestic demand is growing and the government is discouraging overseas sales, Feng said by phone today. Net zinc exports were 90,260 tons in the first quarter.
A decline in record overseas sales by China, which consumes a third of the world's zinc, may drive global prices toward last November's record of $4,580 a ton or even higher, said Yang Yinghui, a trader at Cofco Futures Co. from Beijing. China is trying to curb metal exports to reduce its trade surplus and rein in capacity growth in energy-intensive and polluting industries.
``The sharp increase in zinc exports is a concern, and the government will probably remove the tax rebate to slow export growth,'' Zhou Guobao, head of the zinc and lead department of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said by phone May 8. He didn't say when the tax rebate might be scrapped.
China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, became a net exporter of zinc in 2006 for the first time in three years, reducing global supply concern that pushed prices to records. Zinc is used to galvanize steel, helping to prevent rusting of products such as nails, house frames and car parts.
Exports Surged
China's exports of zinc rose more than fourfold in the first quarter from a year ago to 153,507 tons, while imports fell 51 percent to 63,247 tons, customs data showed. Singapore, Italy and the U.S. were the biggest buyers, according to the data.
Exports soared after prices in London rose to a record, making shipments profitable for Chinese producers such as Hunan Zhuye Torch Metals Co., China's biggest zinc producer. Production growth in China also contributed the surge in exports.
China is now in the peak demand period for construction and prices of the metal are rising. The benchmark London Metal Exchange zinc price, which rose 31 percent in the past three months on dwindling global stockpiles, reached $4,170 on May 4, the highest since Jan. 3.
The contract for delivery in three months fell $25, or 0.6 percent, to $4,065 a ton at 4:30 p.m. Shanghai time today.
Zinc for July delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which has risen 19 percent since the contract was introduced on March 27, closed 0.5 percent higher at 34,710 yuan ($4,511) a ton.
Prices Rise
Global prices may ``be surprisingly good'' this month driven by increased investment by funds and slowing Chinese exports, said Cofco's Yang, who forecasts zinc rising above $4,600 a ton. Some other traders, including Li Ling of Star Futures Co., echoed such price estimates.
``We expect to see Chinese export orders drop significantly from May,'' said Shen Haihua, vice president at Maike Futures Co. by phone from Shanghai. Zinc prices may hover around $4,300 to $4,500 this month, he said.
The government, which wants to ensure that domestic supplies are sufficient to meet rising demand, may reduce or cancel rebates on the 17 percent value-added tax for some metal exports.
It may remove the 5 percent tax rebate on exports of zinc of 99.995 percent purity, which can be delivered on the London Metal Exchange, in the first half of this year, Antaike's Feng said at a seminar in Shanghai April 5. Tax rebates for some steel products were removed last month.
``Fundamentals don't seem to support zinc rising to a record, but other metals such as copper, have risen significantly, and the investment funds' enthusiasm hasn't weakened, so I couldn't rule out the possibility that zinc will rise to a record this quarter,'' Feng said.
``Net exports of refined metal from China have slowed and we remain unconvinced that there are substantial inventories of metal that could be used to boost exports,'' Robin Bhar, an analyst at UBS AG, said in a research note on May 4.
Global stockpiles of zinc in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have fallen to 86,700 tons, the lowest since Dec. 15, the exchange said today.
it seems china was unable to stop the inevitable and zinc stocks continue to plunge. CBH, ZFX, KZL and now soon to be producing JML looking great. JML have held up very well and are 10% or so off their highs. but i now see large upside in KZL.
China's Zinc Exports May Plunge, Boosting World Price (Update4)
By Xiao Yu
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of zinc, may slash exports of the metal this quarter, supporting near-record prices, traders and analysts, including Feng Juncong of Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., said.
Net exports of refined zinc may drop as much as 45 percent to between 50,000 and 60,000 metric tons in the three months ending in June, as domestic demand is growing and the government is discouraging overseas sales, Feng said by phone today. Net zinc exports were 90,260 tons in the first quarter.
A decline in record overseas sales by China, which consumes a third of the world's zinc, may drive global prices toward last November's record of $4,580 a ton or even higher, said Yang Yinghui, a trader at Cofco Futures Co. from Beijing. China is trying to curb metal exports to reduce its trade surplus and rein in capacity growth in energy-intensive and polluting industries.
``The sharp increase in zinc exports is a concern, and the government will probably remove the tax rebate to slow export growth,'' Zhou Guobao, head of the zinc and lead department of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said by phone May 8. He didn't say when the tax rebate might be scrapped.
China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, became a net exporter of zinc in 2006 for the first time in three years, reducing global supply concern that pushed prices to records. Zinc is used to galvanize steel, helping to prevent rusting of products such as nails, house frames and car parts.
Exports Surged
China's exports of zinc rose more than fourfold in the first quarter from a year ago to 153,507 tons, while imports fell 51 percent to 63,247 tons, customs data showed. Singapore, Italy and the U.S. were the biggest buyers, according to the data.
Exports soared after prices in London rose to a record, making shipments profitable for Chinese producers such as Hunan Zhuye Torch Metals Co., China's biggest zinc producer. Production growth in China also contributed the surge in exports.
China is now in the peak demand period for construction and prices of the metal are rising. The benchmark London Metal Exchange zinc price, which rose 31 percent in the past three months on dwindling global stockpiles, reached $4,170 on May 4, the highest since Jan. 3.
The contract for delivery in three months fell $25, or 0.6 percent, to $4,065 a ton at 4:30 p.m. Shanghai time today.
Zinc for July delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which has risen 19 percent since the contract was introduced on March 27, closed 0.5 percent higher at 34,710 yuan ($4,511) a ton.
Prices Rise
Global prices may ``be surprisingly good'' this month driven by increased investment by funds and slowing Chinese exports, said Cofco's Yang, who forecasts zinc rising above $4,600 a ton. Some other traders, including Li Ling of Star Futures Co., echoed such price estimates.
``We expect to see Chinese export orders drop significantly from May,'' said Shen Haihua, vice president at Maike Futures Co. by phone from Shanghai. Zinc prices may hover around $4,300 to $4,500 this month, he said.
The government, which wants to ensure that domestic supplies are sufficient to meet rising demand, may reduce or cancel rebates on the 17 percent value-added tax for some metal exports.
It may remove the 5 percent tax rebate on exports of zinc of 99.995 percent purity, which can be delivered on the London Metal Exchange, in the first half of this year, Antaike's Feng said at a seminar in Shanghai April 5. Tax rebates for some steel products were removed last month.
``Fundamentals don't seem to support zinc rising to a record, but other metals such as copper, have risen significantly, and the investment funds' enthusiasm hasn't weakened, so I couldn't rule out the possibility that zinc will rise to a record this quarter,'' Feng said.
``Net exports of refined metal from China have slowed and we remain unconvinced that there are substantial inventories of metal that could be used to boost exports,'' Robin Bhar, an analyst at UBS AG, said in a research note on May 4.
Global stockpiles of zinc in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have fallen to 86,700 tons, the lowest since Dec. 15, the exchange said today.
UMike
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Zinc stocks down about 3% today
Zinc 83725 -2025
hopefully the price will go up abit.
Zinc 83725 -2025
hopefully the price will go up abit.
Funny, I make the LME movement in Zinc currently up 20 points to 3955 (up 0.50%), but had moved down as far as 3890 (-1.14%).
This looks (currently before close) like a reversal to me, and could signal a resumption of the bullish drive.
There is support in time and price as indicated in the attached chart. If this is a reversal as I suspect it is (or near to this level and time), this should yield a strong bullish drive into the 21 May (or beyond – hence have to see how Zinc moves into this date).
Attachments
UMike
Klutzing in Thai
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I'd say there is a difference between stock levels and price.
Anyway I'm gonna ignore the 2006 thread and post in the 2007 thread from now on.
(That is If a mod doesn't merge it in the meantime)
Anyway I'm gonna ignore the 2006 thread and post in the 2007 thread from now on.
(That is If a mod doesn't merge it in the meantime)
