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ZFX - Zinifex Limited

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rederob said:
Spot zinc price up 6 cents so far tonight.
I think I'm in lerv, again :1luvu:
Click to expand...
Hi Rederob,
Oh! It's so wicked this woman, I keeeep falling in and out of lerv about a hundred times already. But still attached.
Have fun, don't be too serious, it's only $.
 
Zinc may be about to turn here. Working on ZFX itself, but think if Zinc does pull back, so will ZFX in line with Zinc.

The 28th Feb +/- one trading day will be a significant time point, and if we get a high here, should see a continuation of the bear drive along the concept in the chart.

It is conceivable that there is a retest of the high around 12 March, or could see a low here. This is a key increment, and will help to verify the scenario outlined in the existing chart.
 

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Slipstream said:
Magdoran,

There's nothing like having a bet each way!
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Slipstream,


Did you know that this chart is one in a series that have documented Zinc's campaign (and only recently changed over to this 2007 thread now to continue the analysis)?

How exactly is this having a bet each way? I’ve outlined clearly the whole campaign till the 23 May and what I think Zinc will do, and when. The ambiguity for the 12 May is that in this form of analysis I don’t know whether it will be a high or a low into this date. I just know that this date will form either support or resistance in time depending on how the price action plays out from the 28th. Please, tell me if you can do better than this, I’m all ears.

I think you have missed the point of this method of technical analysis completely. It is time based, hence the time points are a critical element in the process. The tolerance is for +/- 1 trading day. There is also wave structure, and there is support and resistance in price incorporated too.

The actual price action is unlikely to exactly follow all the time and price points since the time points in this case are dominant, not the price. However, I’m having my best shot guess as to what price will come up and when, and what the broad wave structure may look like.

How Zinc actually trades into key time and price points, and the way the wave structure pans out will either validate or invalidate the current forecast, and consequently highlight areas that need to be adjusted.

The adjustments which may need to be made are addressed in the post based on the order of probabilities. I can only work in probabilities; this isn’t a crystal ball, but a forecast/projection into the future. With all due respect, Slipstream, Zinc has pretty much followed the forecast I initially posted before I posted the first chart, in line with the time points. What more do you want?

From a trading perspective this approach will highlight entry signals for shorting ZFX near the right time if the right pattern emerges validating the Zinc campaign I have outlined here.

The key target is for Zinc to hit 2744.51 on April 17, if this campaign plays out the way I have forecast it. How I currently think it will trade there is outlined on the chart. I have clearly indicated where the uptrend may recommence if the April 17 low works around 05 May, and that if the downtrend continues, that Zinc could in a capitulation hit 2291.31 on 23 May.


Now, please post up your chart with time price and path for comparison with exact dates and prices. I’m looking forward to learning something from you to improve on this forecast.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I'm essentially saying this baby is blowing off from the 28th Feb down into 17 April if the 28th is a high (+/- 1 trading day).
 

I haven't noticed any of your charts on the relevant value Zinc Stocks or Zinc commodity thread through 06............albeit youre recent musings since Zinc's fall through support after Xmas and subsequent pullback.


As time has proved> what was quite a simple scenario has panned out with decent gains on the relevant stocks achievable by the punters. Youre opinions past tense were a each way bet and non commital at best on the direction of Zinc spot at the time .

I personally like youre specific dates>tommorows Dday for Zinc isn't it .....but not to worry youre bet is each way!.
 
Freeball,

I’m going to demonstrate post this sentence just how much attention you deserve:
 
Mags & Freeball, you both have stated your opinions - now lets get back to Zinifex and leave this here please.

Thanks,
ASF
 
Interesting times....2 or (C) ??... Or a nested 1-2, 1-2,1-2...?
 

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Kauri said:
Sorry, have ammended my post accordingly..
Click to expand...

Hey Kauri, no need to apologize, you have done nothing wrong. Just added a probable pattern on top of yours and others back then. It was rallying quite hard then so it was difficult.
BTW I did not take the short trade. Damn should have though!!

Cheers
 
Here’s my current musings on Zinc.

I have had to make a few adjustments to the original count, and have had to recalibrate the time points since the market has now finally revealed enough for me to get a good lock on the cycle.

Note the new dates, but the price levels currently will stay the same for the present. These may need to be adjusted the closer we get to key time increments.

Here’s my “each way bet” as the peons would say – this baby is going down.

Just let me underline that so everyone can see that I’m unequivocal in what I think is the highest probability. Hence, I’m not going to give my usual heads up on any failure criteria which would invalidate the pattern. I know what it is, but because of the peons, I’ve decided to just limit my comment to the highest probabilities and leave it at that so there is no ambiguity as to what I think is most likely to happen, and just be right or wrong period.

I expect it to chop around with a kind of nesting pattern, then complete the bearish leg down as shown. Post this cycle, it could continue down or reverse the trend. Until this bearish campaign plays out in the weekly chart, I cannot make a high probability forecast (that doesn’t mean I haven’t put the work in and have worked out scenarios, I’m just not going to share these – courtesy of the peon brigade).

Regards


Magdoran
 

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Hi Magdoran,
Maybe there isn't that much difference in Prechter and Miner after all, just the method of getting there? Your ammended zinc chart now pretty much aligns with Nicks chart posted on the 17th of Feb..
 

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Kauri said:
Hi Magdoran,
Maybe there isn't that much difference in Prechter and Miner after all, just the method of getting there? Your ammended zinc chart now pretty much aligns with Nicks chart posted on the 17th of Feb..
Click to expand...
Hello Kauri,


Indeed, and you’d expect this at the basic level, the points of divergence in schools is not on fundamental principles, it is more to do with the minutia and precision, that’s all.

I have never claimed to be an expert EW player; wavepicker is way ahead of me in this field. Like I said in previous posts, give me another 5 years to move from intermediate to something better. But the points of difference is that WP and I look at ending diagonal patterns and nesting patterns in great detail. This is an art. Same with irregular tops for example. Using a time cycle approach helps to clarify the pattern and count – hence hybrid styles can gain an edge in some cases.... Food for thought?

I suppose I see it as being a kind of Sherlock Holmes and evaluating the clues, isn’t it? In the broader field all the good EW players will line up on the core knowledge because it works.

As for Miner, there’s over 500 pages of stuff to wade through. I’ve skimmed it all and noted the key points, but boy there is a lot in his work. It’s going to take some time to work though this to really evaluate it and extract the wisdom from it.

It’s fun, isn’t it Kauri!


Warm Regards


Magdoran
 
The ZFX count in post #1400 remains intact.

The Zinc chart has completed a 5-wave up to wave-a set on Feb 26. We should now see weakness into wave-b. This weakness MUST hold the Feb 2 lows. If it does hold then Zinc will push toward 4000, maybe a little higher, to complete wave-c and the larger degree wave-B or -2.

This last move higher in Zinc will be enough to see ZFX complete its wave-(5) before the larger bearish trend sets in.

So as not to be scorned:

Zinc: the lows of Feb 2 must hold.
ZFX: I think it a high risk trade to the long side into that wave-(5), although under the correct "trading" circumstances it may be viable. See post #1400.




This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information
 
I imagine it's just a blip on the way down to oblivion but ZFX, BSG, OXR, GBG & a whole heap more- correction all ordinaries show green arrows with point on top.
I've already made the mistake of jumping in too soon last thursday.
Comments?
 
The whole market seems a bit too positive at the moment. I would have thought people might 'ease back in' a bit more..not leap back in.
 
silence said:
The whole market seems a bit too positive at the moment. I would have thought people might 'ease back in' a bit more..not leap back in.
Click to expand...
I dont think Mr Market understands! He has a switch that can flip flop, BEAR/BULL/BEAR/BULL

I think it's a sus bounce to, I've made a couple of small purchases today but the DOW etc will decide if they're long term or short term investments.
 
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