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ZFX - Zinifex Limited

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OK, Nokia, none here will waste more time trying to explain that to you. If you are happy to believe that, good on you.

WBII
 
nioka,
Your lack of basic understanding of company announcements is quite frightening really. Frightening in the sense you obviously have your money in the equity markets but have no real idea about what you're buying or selling.
I suggest a read of some basic money management books for a start.
 
Having been on company boards I KNOW what goes on behind the scene. As I have said before "all will be revealed in the fullness of time". You can apologise then if you like.

(I also have a diploma in business management if that is any help. It took 4 years to complete. I must have learnt something. What are your credentials.)
 
Looks like Zinc, Nickel and Lead are not going to be real exciting on the Metals Futures:

Source: Thomson One Analytics.

Recent and Forecast Commodity Prices



Bill Matlack is associated with Scarsdale Equities LLC, a registered broker/dealer and member FINRA, SIPC.

William Matlack
 

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Then again, short term could be a little brighter. This is the Metals Report from MF Global - courtesy of Kitco.

I am not much of a chartist, but it looks like it's found a bottom, thoughts?
 

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We have more Zinc:

HIGH GRADE ZINC CONFIRMED IN DRILLING AT NEFZA PROJECT, TUNISIA
HIGHLIGHTS
• An initial drilling program intersected 8.1m @ 11.7% Zn at Khatkhadha within the historic Bou
Aouane mining district, confirming the prospectivity of the region for high grade zinc deposits.
• A second hole drilled 800m to the southeast of Khatkhadaha intersected 21.4m @ 2.4% Zn and
1.7% Pb, confirming that zinc-lead mineralisation at Bou Aouane is laterally extensive.
• Assays are awaited for five additional drill holes at Bou Aouane, and drilling has also
commenced at the El Haouaria zinc prospect.
Background
The Nefza project is part of a joint venture agreement signed in December 2006 by Albidon and Zinifex
Limited for exploration and development of the Company’s Nefza and Haffouz zinc projects in Tunisia.
Further details of the JV are provided below, and refer to Diagram 1 below for a location map.
LEVEL 1
 
roland said:
Then again, short term could be a little brighter. This is the Metals Report from MF Global - courtesy of Kitco.

I am not much of a chartist, but it looks like it's found a bottom, thoughts?
Click to expand...

Not so much a bottom; but rather resistance. It's struggling to breach that level substantially ... but, as the article mentions - should it break out of that resistance it should go relatively stronger.

Does seem to be struggling to break it though!

I guess, maybe there is support about 2200?
 
Yet Zinifex seems to be copping a flogging on the market later today, wiping out the gains from yesterday. Any thoughts on whether the recent uptrend since 22 Jan is likely to continue, or whether this is a sucker-rally and the overall downtrend which started in July is likely to continue lower?

Considering that the price has declined from over $21 to below $11, it would have to suggest to me that the stock has perhaps been oversold and will recover to a more balanced level??

If someone has some thoughts based on technical analysis, I would like to hear about (and learn from) your analysis.
I recently bought an April CALL option on the stock, but am wondering whether to close out and take a small profit, or if it is realistic to expect the stock to advance further over the next few weeks.


Thanks,
Kruegs
 

Since ZFX is not diversified and is zinc only (At the moment) then they will track the price of zinc very closely. Zinc has been hammered over past few months and hence so have zinc miners.

I think this is why ZFX are trying to take AGM, they need to diversify to boost profits again as the outlook for zinc is not as rosy as it once was. However on the flip side, if ZFX can maintain a low cash operating cost it means that other companies will be forced to abandon production due to making losses on spot price of zinc which means less supply and leads to an increase in spot prices again.

So it just depend on your outlook for zinc, personally I would not be touching any zinc miners now, they are oversold for good reason. Just look at zinc spot 1-1.20 and companies cash operating costs and that explains the selloff in these companies.

IMO a technical rebound would need to be supported fundamentally.
 
The depth ratio between buyers and sellers has been good over the past fews days - something I haven't seen for quite a long time. Short term Zinc prices have picked up, but long term expectations are not so rosey.

Additional resource announcements give little rallies here and there, but they don't seem to remain sustained.

The AGM offfer seems be stalemating the situation a little as well, in my opinion.

SP is low with expectations of high dividend yield still in the mix which should give us a little more volume in a few weeks as we get closer to ex-div. I'm preparing for another big sell off on ex-div day. For me now I'll be trying to get my average down and have some cash ready for the ex div crash - I'm long term on Zinifex.
 
roland said:
Then again, short term could be a little brighter. This is the Metals Report from MF Global - courtesy of Kitco.

I am not much of a chartist, but it looks like it's found a bottom, thoughts?
Click to expand...

You may find that the bottom has been found in that at these prices it is not financially viable for production for additional production, so as prices drop production will also slump then leading to a support in prices.

But it could just trend inside this channel for a long time now. Historically above old prices, but it seems to me to be a point where the price is supported by production cash costs, ie drop in price = reduced production = rise in spot prices = increased production, and cycle starts over.
 
DJ420 & Roland,

Thanks for your explanations. What date does ZFX go ex-Dividend?

Regards,
Kruegs
 

I wonder as the value of zinc drops, then that would also affect the recycling business which got all excited with higher prices. As I understand, recycling is quite an expensive process which will become less attractive with zinc in surplus - supporting your cyclic comments.
 
Kruegs said:
DJ420 & Roland,

Thanks for your explanations. What date does ZFX go ex-Dividend?

Regards,
Kruegs
Click to expand...

Record date is expected 30th of March, and we are anticipating the usual $0.70 for the 6 months. Which at these levels gives us a yield of around 11% pre tax and 8% tax adjusted.
 

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roland said:
Record date is expected 30th of March, and we are anticipating the usual $0.70 for the 6 months. Which at these levels gives us a yield of around 11% pre tax and 8% tax adjusted.
Click to expand...

Just remember that the market knows ZFX will pay a dividend and just like any other company is likely fall by the dividend amount after it goes ex-div. The market factors in dividends
 
Is this another false direction change for ZFX, with rising interest rates the higher yeilders are always hit the hardest, porkpie
 
jet328 said:
Just remember that the market knows ZFX will pay a dividend and just like any other company is likely fall by the dividend amount after it goes ex-div. The market factors in dividends
Click to expand...

Yes, and often more than the dividend value - just like the last one

Under normal circumstances the SP usually recovers quite quickly, which you can add to the mix of getting more value from your holdings. (note that I said UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES). Zinifex and many other stocks are not behaving normally....
 
Looks like the announcement has lifted Zinifex a little, we are trending away and upwards from the All Ords just now - hope it continues.
 
roland said:
Record date is expected 30th of March, and we are anticipating the usual $0.70 for the 6 months. Which at these levels gives us a yield of around 11% pre tax and 8% tax adjusted.
Click to expand...

Hi, according to my broker's website, if ZFX continue to pay a 70c dividend each 6 months and at the current ZFX price of $10.48, then

Quote

Dividends Per Share 140.00c
Dividend Yield 13.36%
Gross Dividend Amount 200.00c
Current Dividend Amount 70.00c
Franked Percent 100.00%

Unquote

ie. dividend yield is 13.36% per annum fully franked, after 30% company tax.

Hope I've got this right.
 

Yes, that looks correct, the example I posted was with an SP a little higher. If the dividend dollar value is maintained, then obviously as the SP falls the percentage yield increases.

Hence in long term value, the lower you can get your average down, the better the yield in the future if you hold for long term. I haven't worked it out, but imagine holders that have stock that they only payed $2.00 for - now that's a yield with a $1.40 return each year
 
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