Your predictions on approaching bear market

[MalteseBull]

ok this bull market will not last ! there's going to be corrections, so when do you think the next bear market will be (eg next good time to buy?)

 

[michael_selway]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

ok this bull market will not last ! there's going to be corrections, so when do you think the next bear market will be (eg next good time to buy?)

are u talking about corrections or market crash/bear market?

thx

MS

 

[Prospector]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

And have we agreed a bear market is approaching, or are you just saying that some time in the future things will cycle?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

This bull market will last for a lot longer @ the earliest it won't slow down until late 2007 (Oil prices, terrorism and natural disasters ie Bird Flu are some dark horses however)

Unlike any other boom before this one is being driven by 2 billion people buying everyday items such as fridges, cars, tv's mobile phones and so on,

I am not just repeating what I have read, I was in China last year and all I can say is OMG!

Until you go there you cannot appreciate what its like, buildings/skyscrapers/apartment complexes going up everywhere and I mean everywhere!!!!!!! And it still isn't enough, not by a long shot, its crazy but it will take China 2 more years to till they can meet this demand

I was in India Early Last year as well and it was the same scenario, although not at an advanced stage like China, I'm told now though that there property development/ buildings are rivalling the sprawl in China,

Its Crazy never before has the world experienced 2 billlion people creating organic consumption demand like this before,


Sure the mkts run very hot, sure the heat will come out, sure it has to have a little breather like it did in Oct last year, but it will pick up again.


Throw out your text books and embrace (like most analysts finally have) that we are in a new era!

To make my point clear, we will definately have another breather, I don't know when, but am guessing June/July, but the market will keep on keeping on for a few more years to come.

 

[bullmarket]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

well I've consulted my tea leaves, crystal ball and astrologist and they don't agree .........so I'm leaving the final word to my gut

I think oil is starting to get to the point where it most likely will start affecting consumer confidence significantly and then everything snow-balls down hill from there, especially in the US where consumer spending is the main driver of their economy.

I posted recently that I thought if oil goes past and stays $75-80+ then it's going to start hurting confidence and hence consumer spending imo, not to mention the inflation pressures it will exert.....we're getting close now imo the next 6 months consumer confidence and inflation numbers will give a better idea of what is likely to happen in H2 2006 and next year.

So finally, my gut says that if oil goes to and stays $75-80+ for the next 6-12 months then next year markets generally will be struggling imo.

cheers

bullmarket

ps...on a more serious note, over the last few months I've noticed on Nightly Business Report on SBS that the general consensus amongst US forcasters is that they expect a slow down in US GDP growth in H2 2006.

 

[kgee]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

I'm a speculator and I think june / july will be interesting ... mainly due to oil prices ...the middle east is a mess and I can't see any significant resolutions by then.Couple this with the US driving and hurricane season,s beginning in June/July...I've posted this b4 that I don't believe we will have another Katrina ...but there will be disruptions from supply as you can't work on a rig when a cyclone is heading your way...and they are predicting a higher than average season
Now if there is an escalation in the middle east I hate to imagine...but it wouldn't be good

 

[Strw23]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

I am not an investor, I trade using mechanical systems so I dont care if it comes or when it comes. I think if you make 3 or 4 systems that complement each other you should be making money no matter which way the market goes. I see a crash/correction as another chance to make a lot of money shorting. I have tried predicting things before and have been wrong, so I find it always helps to remember the saying "Would you rather be profitable or right". Dont get me wrong I am not knocking Investing just giving my point of view. My plan is to have a short system and run it all the time so when the market finally does change direction I wont be caught out.

My

Scott

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET



Hi folks,

Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:

XJO ..... would still like to see a high in this market,
around 5386 (possibly spiking to 5404 intraday???).

As strong as this market has been, we will likely
see a pullback soon, so we will be shooting for
a high on 20042006, with the slide starting on
Friday, 21042006 ..... ???

-----

So today, we are still 100 points shy of our target
and running out of time .....

Whilst tonight (Thurs 20042006) should see us
with a positive DOW, Friday should see XJO test
the highs, ready for a slide .....

Time cycles between world events are the reasons
for our concern ..... for example, terrorists can count
too - it was exactly 1000 days from the bombings
in Spain to the attacks in London.

Similarly, 24042006 should also be added to our
key dates to watch, as it is also on a critical cycle
from the Bali bombing, on 12 October 2002.

Other key dates, to watch for major world events,
that may be reflected in the markets, on:

24052006 ... minor

08062006 ... 2nd anniversary - Venus Transit
and Reagan's death and also related to the
2002 Bali bombing.

07 November 2006 ... relates to March 2003 lows
..... another low ??? Also a huge stellium here.

FWIW ..... XJO should be BOOMING in early 2007,
especially around 15-21 February 2007 ...

On the subject of oil, we figure that oil prices will
probably rally through to early July 2006, then
moderate into the end of September 2006, with
the lows expectd around 22-28092006 ???

From September 2006, we will probably see a steady
increase in oil prices, until around 19042007, then
flat-to-down until 08082007, then sharp rises later
in 2007, particularly about 31 October 2007.

Anyway, let's see how all this unfolds,
in the months ahead .....

happy days

yogi

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm hoping (with fingers crossed four the sake of the world and markets) that the Iran situation is defused by China if need be.

That the major supply disruptions in Nigeria or stopped (ie kill the rebels!)

And that rising inventory levels ease the Oil price around $65, I'm happy with $65, the world can cope with $65, but if anything goes wrong it could be $100 very quickly!



Also scott who is that scary mind controlling chap as your picture?

 

[bullmarket]

Hi yogi

sounds like you go to the same astrologist as I do

cheers

bullmarket

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

..... should add, that turns at market extremes
are often triggered by external events, that have
little or nothing to do with market internals.

It could easily be a natural catastrophe, that triggers a
market slide, but given this is the US reporting season,
the volatility will be higher anyway, as the markets
swings between positive and negative numbers from
the big players, in particular.

happy trading

yogi

 

[Strw23]

Also scott who is that scary mind controlling chap as your picture?

Its Professor X off of the X-men. I wanted a picture of the Silver Surfer for surfing the trends or something like that but the ones I found didnt reduce down in size that well so I used this one instead. If I find a decent Silver Surfer one later on I might swap it over.

Scott

 

[wavepicker]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

This bull market will last for a lot longer @ the earliest it won't slow down until late 2007 (Oil prices, terrorism and natural disasters ie Bird Flu are some dark horses however)

Unlike any other boom before this one is being driven by 2 billion people buying everyday items such as fridges, cars, tv's mobile phones and so on,

I am not just repeating what I have read, I was in China last year and all I can say is OMG!

Until you go there you cannot appreciate what its like, buildings/skyscrapers/apartment complexes going up everywhere and I mean everywhere!!!!!!! And it still isn't enough, not by a long shot, its crazy but it will take China 2 more years to till they can meet this demand

I was in India Early Last year as well and it was the same scenario, although not at an advanced stage like China, I'm told now though that there property development/ buildings are rivalling the sprawl in China,

Its Crazy never before has the world experienced 2 billlion people creating organic consumption demand like this before,


Sure the mkts run very hot, sure the heat will come out, sure it has to have a little breather like it did in Oct last year, but it will pick up again.


Throw out your text books and embrace (like most analysts finally have) that we are in a new era!

To make my point clear, we will definately have another breather, I don't know when, but am guessing June/July, but the market will keep on keeping on for a few more years to come.

Young Trader,
In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and prove them wrong, over and over again.

No it is not different this time, the market is as always charged with emotion, both when it goes up and when it comes down. People are people and they will make the same mistakes that their predecessors have made in the markets.

Bull and Bear markets always seem to last a lot longer than most people expect. People then reach a point and say well "this is just going to keep going and going and going.

That is the time to go against the crowd. This is difficult to do but if you look at the greatest investors such as John Templeton for example, that is what sets them apart from the crowd.

Cheers

 

[crackaton]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

Young Trader,
In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and prove them wrong, over and over again.

No it is not different this time, the market is as always charged with emotion, both when it goes and when it comes down. People are people and they will make the same mistakes that their predecessors have made in the markets.

Bull and Bear markets always seem to last a lot longer than most people expect. People then reach a point and say well "this is just going to keep going and going and going.

That is the time to go against the crowd. This is difficult to do but if you look at the greatest investors such as John Templeton for example, that is what sets them apart from the crowd.

Cheers

This is true but have we reached that point? I think there is more kick left and perhaps you can say I told you so in 6 months or a year, but I reckon there's a bit of steam left in the ol boiler yet.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

This is true but have we reached that point? I think there is more kick left and perhaps you can say I told you so in 6 months or a year, but I reckon there's a bit of steam left in the ol boiler yet.

Yes Crackaton, of course there maybe more steam left in the boiler. However that steam could also be becoming "superheated" and the old boiler she could blow at any time. Who knows? You just gotta make your play and hope for the best if you have no exit strategy. If you do have an exit strategy then in my opinion taking some good old profits at the moment wouldn't be a bad idea.

Good Trading

 

[money tree]

baby boomers are now turning 60. Right now, a lot of them are in high paying jobs and sending a lot of money into retirements plans. When they get to 65, they will retire, ie STOP adding to retirement plans and START drawing on them. This means, markets are likely to rise for the next few years, followed by the worst recession ever seen, starting around 2010.

I predict the Dow will be 20,000 by 2010.
I predict the Nikkei will be 40,000 by 2010.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET

Young Trader,
In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and prove them wrong, over and over again.

No it is not different this time, the market is as always charged with emotion, both when it goes up and when it comes down. People are people and they will make the same mistakes that their predecessors have made in the markets.

Bull and Bear markets always seem to last a lot longer than most people expect. People then reach a point and say well "this is just going to keep going and going and going.

That is the time to go against the crowd. This is difficult to do but if you look at the greatest investors such as John Templeton for example, that is what sets them apart from the crowd.

Cheers

I agree with what you say, I'm not blindly saying the markets will roar on forever, however I think the fundamentals are there to support the stronger for longer proposition, if you read my post you will see that I said late 2007 may see some slowing, the demand is not just going to dry up overnight but eventually the demand will be met,

Any way time will tell, but I thinks 2006 should be another good year for resources mainly OIL, GOLD, ZINC, URANIUM as should 2007, and perhaps Silver and Copper

 

[crackaton]

baby boomers are now turning 60. Right now, a lot of them are in high paying jobs and sending a lot of money into retirements plans. When they get to 65, they will retire, ie STOP adding to retirement plans and START drawing on them. This means, markets are likely to rise for the next few years, followed by the worst recession ever seen, starting around 2010.

I predict the Dow will be 20,000 by 2010.
I predict the Nikkei will be 40,000 by 2010.

Agree. A few years to go yet. So make the most of it or you'll be kicking yourself for the rest of your mortal life!!

 

[tech/a]

In just about every boom/bubble I have had the pleasure of either participating or witnessing(the last being the dot com bubble) people and analysts said " Throw out the your textbooks, we are in new era, this time it's different blah blah blah". You know what? Shortly after the markets tank it and prove them wrong, over and over again.

At the time yes but pretty quickly in the scheme of things-----
AUST IS different to the US.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/gold-to-set-course-for-us1000/2006/04/19/1145344154024.html

More Bull ammo!!!

 

[bullmarket]

Well, this boom is good for super funds

I don't want to wish my life away any faster than time is already passing nowadays (scarey ) but I'm looking forward to my 55th birthday in a few years

I hope that the inevitable correction is done and dusted off by then.

bullmarket