Your predictions on approaching bear market
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Well if you invest for capital appreciation rather than yield then in a few years time when its still coming you wont have to worry about crashes or corrections. It will still be coming.
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Hi tech/a 
I received a redundancy package back in 2001, which is why I am no longer in the workforce, and the super fund I referred to in my previous post is the rollover fund my employer super was rolled over into in 2001 until I reach the age of 55.
You also might recall that recently in another thread I mentioned that the assets we have in mrs bullmarket's name are far more orientated to growth than income and so imo we have all bases covered atm
cheers
bullmarket
tech/a said:
I received a redundancy package back in 2001, which is why I am no longer in the workforce, and the super fund I referred to in my previous post is the rollover fund my employer super was rolled over into in 2001 until I reach the age of 55.
You also might recall that recently in another thread I mentioned that the assets we have in mrs bullmarket's name are far more orientated to growth than income and so imo we have all bases covered atm
cheers
bullmarket
First of all, I'm not a big poster but have followed a few forums for about ten years. Many of the posters I read on a regular basis and thanks all, you have been a great source of learning. Tech/a amongst many of the better posters.
That chart looks almost parabolic Tech/a. Time to be on red alert for a breakdown IMHO.
That chart looks almost parabolic Tech/a. Time to be on red alert for a breakdown IMHO.
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Commodities like oil and gas are not like those laughably overvalued technology stocks of 1999-2000 -- let's get that straight.
Tech stocks rode a wave of hype and gullibility, whereas commodity prices and the share prices of the companies that produce them, are built on supply and demand considerations that in turn reflect verifiable economic and political factors.
So why try and fight the laws of demand and supply fundamentals?
It is a battle you will not win, I don't care how many investors there are selling down a commodity, if the supply isn't there to meet actual demand from 2billion people the price of that Commodity will remain strong.
Take Zinc last night
Metals get volatile, copper drops 5.7%, but silver dropped 15%
BaseMetals.com Report
Having put in stellar performances in recent weeks, Thursday’s sell-off should have been no surprise. Although silver may have started the wobble and at one stage was off 15% from recent highs, the base metals got off relatively lightly with copper dropping 5.7% to a low around $6170/mt before once again running into strong underlying buying, which saw prices bounce all the way back to $6300/mt by the 5pm close. The sell-off, however, has damaged some of the chart pictures, especially aluminium’s as prices once again fell back below previous highs at $2678. If it holds down here then it will look like another failed attempt to break higher. In addition, today’s sell-off may well have reminded some investors about how scary the market can become when more than a few traders head for the exit at the same time. It may also have been an eye-opener to those who are new to the world of metals Had copper fallen as much as silver did on Thursday then the low would have been around $5565 – so things certainly could get more volatile.
Now that the market has had a shake out all eyes will be on whether there is follow through selling. The sell-off was followed by a good bounce, but some of that was no doubt just short-covering on the day as the close approached. Given the extent of the rise that has seen copper prices up 40% since March 10, it would not be surprising to see more selling emerge, but given the characteristics of this market over the past few years, this is by no means certain. The arguments for a deeper correction in copper are:
Prices had started to accelerate to the upside from an already steep climb which can be part of an ending pattern in technical analysis
On April 13, ICSG reported a supply surplus in January of 60,000mt
Substitution is having an impact in some applications – which is likely to reduce demand. China’s usage in January was down 10% yoy.
High oil prices and potential for a much weaker dollar may damage global growth and hence metal demand
Interesting to note that while Gold, Silver, Aluminium, Copper etc all fell Zinc marched on,
Why? Zinc has the Strongest Demand Supply Fundamentals!
Tech stocks rode a wave of hype and gullibility, whereas commodity prices and the share prices of the companies that produce them, are built on supply and demand considerations that in turn reflect verifiable economic and political factors.
So why try and fight the laws of demand and supply fundamentals?
It is a battle you will not win, I don't care how many investors there are selling down a commodity, if the supply isn't there to meet actual demand from 2billion people the price of that Commodity will remain strong.
Take Zinc last night
Metals get volatile, copper drops 5.7%, but silver dropped 15%
BaseMetals.com Report
Having put in stellar performances in recent weeks, Thursday’s sell-off should have been no surprise. Although silver may have started the wobble and at one stage was off 15% from recent highs, the base metals got off relatively lightly with copper dropping 5.7% to a low around $6170/mt before once again running into strong underlying buying, which saw prices bounce all the way back to $6300/mt by the 5pm close. The sell-off, however, has damaged some of the chart pictures, especially aluminium’s as prices once again fell back below previous highs at $2678. If it holds down here then it will look like another failed attempt to break higher. In addition, today’s sell-off may well have reminded some investors about how scary the market can become when more than a few traders head for the exit at the same time. It may also have been an eye-opener to those who are new to the world of metals Had copper fallen as much as silver did on Thursday then the low would have been around $5565 – so things certainly could get more volatile.
Now that the market has had a shake out all eyes will be on whether there is follow through selling. The sell-off was followed by a good bounce, but some of that was no doubt just short-covering on the day as the close approached. Given the extent of the rise that has seen copper prices up 40% since March 10, it would not be surprising to see more selling emerge, but given the characteristics of this market over the past few years, this is by no means certain. The arguments for a deeper correction in copper are:
Prices had started to accelerate to the upside from an already steep climb which can be part of an ending pattern in technical analysis
On April 13, ICSG reported a supply surplus in January of 60,000mt
Substitution is having an impact in some applications – which is likely to reduce demand. China’s usage in January was down 10% yoy.
High oil prices and potential for a much weaker dollar may damage global growth and hence metal demand
Interesting to note that while Gold, Silver, Aluminium, Copper etc all fell Zinc marched on,
Why? Zinc has the Strongest Demand Supply Fundamentals!
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Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET
Hi folks,
..... it looks like we nailed the right day for the slide,
but set our sights too high for the price ..... lol .....
happy days
yogi
yogi-in-oz said:
Hi folks,
Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:
XJO ..... would still like to see a high in this market,
around 5386 (possibly spiking to 5404 intraday???).
As strong as this market has been, we will likely
see a pullback soon, so we will be shooting for
a high on 20042006, with the slide starting on
Friday, 21042006 ..... ???
-----
So today, we are still 100 points shy of our target
and running out of time .....
Whilst tonight (Thurs 20042006) should see us
with a positive DOW, Friday should see XJO test
the highs, ready for a slide .....
Hi folks,
..... it looks like we nailed the right day for the slide,
but set our sights too high for the price ..... lol .....
happy days
yogi
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With all of the commodities making up for Thursdays Loses and pushing to new record highs on friday (US)lets see what Monday Brings on the ASX SHALL WE?
Copper, Zinc, Silver Soar (JML anyone?), Leading Rebound in Demand for Metals
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and zinc soared to records, gold rallied and silver rebounded from its biggest drop in 23 years as investment funds returned to buying commodities.
The gains capped a week of speculation that the three-year commodity rally may have peaked, sparking a sell-off of industrial and precious metals. Investors resumed purchases today, sending copper and zinc to their sixth straight weekly gains. Gold traded near its highest in 25 years and silver, down 14 percent yesterday, jumped the most in eight years.
``There are still good times to be had in these markets,'' said Paul Netherwood, who co-manages Beach Horizon LLP's $70 million commodity fund in London. ``Commodities have a long way to go.''
Copper for delivery in three months climbed as much as $534, or 8.5 percent, to a record $6,830 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, which would be the biggest gain since at least 1986. Zinc jumped as much as $285, or 9.3 percent, to an all-time high of $3,360 a ton. Nickel rose as much as $1,045, or 5.7 percent, to $19,500, the highest since at least 1987.
Rising demand from China, the world's fastest-growing major economy and biggest consumer of most metals, is luring investors to commodities from sugar to gold. Fund investments in commodities will rise 38 percent this year to $110 billion, according to Barclays Capital.
China's economy expanded 9.9 percent last year. Growth in the first quarter was 10.2 percent, President Hu Jintao said April 16. Industrial production expanded 17.8 percent last month after gaining 20.1 percent in February.
Gold's Gains
Copper prices are up 10.6 percent this week, the most since July 1999. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for delivery in May rose 5.2 percent to $3.115 a pound. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.
Gold headed for the sixth straight weekly gain, rebounding from a 2 percent drop yesterday, on renewed speculation that it will fetch better returns than stocks and bonds.
Bullion is up 45 percent in the past year, and reached a 25-year high yesterday of $649 an ounce before investors began a sell-off in precious metals that included silver. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has gained 13 percent and holders of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury have lost 3.2 percent in the past year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
Held Its Ground
``The gold market held its ground,'' said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``That it stayed well above $600 in the face of the silver sell-off convinced investors that it's still involved in a bull market.''
Gold futures for June delivery rose $8.90, or 1.4 percent, to $632 an ounce 12:02 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have climbed 5.4 percent this week.
Silver for immediate delivery rose 92.5 cents, or 7.7 percent, to $12.91 an ounce in London. A close at that price would be the biggest one-day gain since February 1998. Silver yesterday reached $14.74, matching the highest since February 1983, before joining a sell-off in metals including gold and copper. Silver is down 0.3 percent for the week.
``Prices would not be where they are if not for the huge, unprecedented amount of money coming into the market,'' Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London, said in a phone interview.
Fund Investment
Silver has risen this year on expectations that Barclays Plc would soon receive approval for an exchange-traded fund linked for the metal, boosting demand.
Copper prices have been fueled by a drop in production at Grupo Mexico, owner of the country's two largest copper mines, and at sites owned by New Orleans-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.
Freeport said April 18 that variations in the richness of metal deposits in different parts of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, led to a 34 percent drop in first-quarter production to 100,400 tons.
Grupo Mexico may have to suspend May deliveries of zinc after a two-week strike at its San Martin underground mine, spokesman Juan Rebolledo said this week. It's also losing daily production of about 1,100 tons of copper and won't be able to ship to customers next month because of a labor dispute at La Caridad mine, Rebolledo said April 16.
Europe, the world's second-largest copper-consuming region after Asia, also has seen expanding demand for the metal. Cumerio, the copper producer spun off by Belgian metals producer Umicore SA, said today first-quarter product deliveries, including wire rods, rose by as much as 15 percent.
Falling Stockpiles
``Real demand for copper semi-products in Europe could improve by 8 percent to 10 percent during the first half of the year,'' Thierry Centner, Cumerio's vice president for copper products, said today in an interview from Brussels.
Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME declined for a second straight day, dropping 425 tons, or 0.4 percent, to 118,000 tons. That equates to less than three days of global consumption. Zinc inventory has plummeted 32 percent this year to 267,250 tons, according to the LME data, an amount that can be consumed within less than 10 days.
First-quarter nickel output from Australia's Murin Murin mine fell 15 percent to 7,302 tons because of maintenance, Minara Resources Ltd., the country's second-largest producer of the metal, said today. Minara, based in Perth, accounts for about 60 percent of the mine's production.
Inco Ltd., the world's No. 2 nickel producer, said yesterday demand for the metal will outpace production this year because of increased use by stainless steel producers, which consume about two-thirds of global supply.
Among other metals traded on the LME, aluminum rose $135, or 5.1 percent, to $2,780 a ton. Tin added $275 to $9,250 a ton and lead gained $58, or 4.9 percent, to $1,243 a ton.
Copper, Zinc, Silver Soar (JML anyone?), Leading Rebound in Demand for Metals
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and zinc soared to records, gold rallied and silver rebounded from its biggest drop in 23 years as investment funds returned to buying commodities.
The gains capped a week of speculation that the three-year commodity rally may have peaked, sparking a sell-off of industrial and precious metals. Investors resumed purchases today, sending copper and zinc to their sixth straight weekly gains. Gold traded near its highest in 25 years and silver, down 14 percent yesterday, jumped the most in eight years.
``There are still good times to be had in these markets,'' said Paul Netherwood, who co-manages Beach Horizon LLP's $70 million commodity fund in London. ``Commodities have a long way to go.''
Copper for delivery in three months climbed as much as $534, or 8.5 percent, to a record $6,830 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, which would be the biggest gain since at least 1986. Zinc jumped as much as $285, or 9.3 percent, to an all-time high of $3,360 a ton. Nickel rose as much as $1,045, or 5.7 percent, to $19,500, the highest since at least 1987.
Rising demand from China, the world's fastest-growing major economy and biggest consumer of most metals, is luring investors to commodities from sugar to gold. Fund investments in commodities will rise 38 percent this year to $110 billion, according to Barclays Capital.
China's economy expanded 9.9 percent last year. Growth in the first quarter was 10.2 percent, President Hu Jintao said April 16. Industrial production expanded 17.8 percent last month after gaining 20.1 percent in February.
Gold's Gains
Copper prices are up 10.6 percent this week, the most since July 1999. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for delivery in May rose 5.2 percent to $3.115 a pound. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.
Gold headed for the sixth straight weekly gain, rebounding from a 2 percent drop yesterday, on renewed speculation that it will fetch better returns than stocks and bonds.
Bullion is up 45 percent in the past year, and reached a 25-year high yesterday of $649 an ounce before investors began a sell-off in precious metals that included silver. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has gained 13 percent and holders of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury have lost 3.2 percent in the past year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
Held Its Ground
``The gold market held its ground,'' said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``That it stayed well above $600 in the face of the silver sell-off convinced investors that it's still involved in a bull market.''
Gold futures for June delivery rose $8.90, or 1.4 percent, to $632 an ounce 12:02 p.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have climbed 5.4 percent this week.
Silver for immediate delivery rose 92.5 cents, or 7.7 percent, to $12.91 an ounce in London. A close at that price would be the biggest one-day gain since February 1998. Silver yesterday reached $14.74, matching the highest since February 1983, before joining a sell-off in metals including gold and copper. Silver is down 0.3 percent for the week.
``Prices would not be where they are if not for the huge, unprecedented amount of money coming into the market,'' Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London, said in a phone interview.
Fund Investment
Silver has risen this year on expectations that Barclays Plc would soon receive approval for an exchange-traded fund linked for the metal, boosting demand.
Copper prices have been fueled by a drop in production at Grupo Mexico, owner of the country's two largest copper mines, and at sites owned by New Orleans-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.
Freeport said April 18 that variations in the richness of metal deposits in different parts of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, led to a 34 percent drop in first-quarter production to 100,400 tons.
Grupo Mexico may have to suspend May deliveries of zinc after a two-week strike at its San Martin underground mine, spokesman Juan Rebolledo said this week. It's also losing daily production of about 1,100 tons of copper and won't be able to ship to customers next month because of a labor dispute at La Caridad mine, Rebolledo said April 16.
Europe, the world's second-largest copper-consuming region after Asia, also has seen expanding demand for the metal. Cumerio, the copper producer spun off by Belgian metals producer Umicore SA, said today first-quarter product deliveries, including wire rods, rose by as much as 15 percent.
Falling Stockpiles
``Real demand for copper semi-products in Europe could improve by 8 percent to 10 percent during the first half of the year,'' Thierry Centner, Cumerio's vice president for copper products, said today in an interview from Brussels.
Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME declined for a second straight day, dropping 425 tons, or 0.4 percent, to 118,000 tons. That equates to less than three days of global consumption. Zinc inventory has plummeted 32 percent this year to 267,250 tons, according to the LME data, an amount that can be consumed within less than 10 days.
First-quarter nickel output from Australia's Murin Murin mine fell 15 percent to 7,302 tons because of maintenance, Minara Resources Ltd., the country's second-largest producer of the metal, said today. Minara, based in Perth, accounts for about 60 percent of the mine's production.
Inco Ltd., the world's No. 2 nickel producer, said yesterday demand for the metal will outpace production this year because of increased use by stainless steel producers, which consume about two-thirds of global supply.
Among other metals traded on the LME, aluminum rose $135, or 5.1 percent, to $2,780 a ton. Tin added $275 to $9,250 a ton and lead gained $58, or 4.9 percent, to $1,243 a ton.
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Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET
Hi,
as I have said in an earlier post in another thread, my opinion is that this market has either put in a very historic top last week or is about to in the next 2-5 trading days.
Gold, Silver as well as the CRB Index have put in classic 5th wave extension blowoffs under my interpretation of elliott wave theory and other analysis tools that I use. I beleive we are in for a great correction.
I have liquidated all my positions last week and kickin back
PS- I am not a licensed advisor, my comments are based on my own work and are entirely my opinion.
Good trading too all.
yogi-in-oz said:
Hi folks,
..... it looks like we nailed the right day for the slide,
but set our sights too high for the price ..... lol .....
happy days
yogi
Hi,
as I have said in an earlier post in another thread, my opinion is that this market has either put in a very historic top last week or is about to in the next 2-5 trading days.
Gold, Silver as well as the CRB Index have put in classic 5th wave extension blowoffs under my interpretation of elliott wave theory and other analysis tools that I use. I beleive we are in for a great correction.
I have liquidated all my positions last week and kickin back
PS- I am not a licensed advisor, my comments are based on my own work and are entirely my opinion.
Good trading too all.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Elliot practitioners have been calling around 5300 for a while now.
This "slide" is that likely to be .38 off the highs?---less---more?
The "Great Correction" is this likely to be a 100% retracement---more?
Is this High the highest high it will ever get to?
Is it the high within an incompleted larger wave pattern?
This "slide" is that likely to be .38 off the highs?---less---more?
The "Great Correction" is this likely to be a 100% retracement---more?
Is this High the highest high it will ever get to?
Is it the high within an incompleted larger wave pattern?
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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tech/a said:
No, unless nuclear armageddon or something equally outrageous happens.
tech/a said:
Always! Qualified of course by the above apocalypse.
You will find fanatical bears will become fanatical bulls after a nice textbook 3 wave down.
MalteseBull said:
I've seen some pointless questions and pointless discussions on forums, but this one just about takes the cake!
Two facts.......
1. None of us can predict the future with regard to the financial markets. We can try, but we'll be wrong more times than right.
2. We don't need to predict the future in order to make money from the markets. We simply need to react to what the market is doing right now, rather than waste our time and effort in pointless speculation about what it might do in the future.
Those who can read charts and identify trends will know when the next bear market arrives. And they'll profit from it just as they've profited from the current bull market.
Those who can't recognise trends will try to be bulls in a bear market, and will quite likely cop a mauling.
MalteseBull.....No offence intended, but to come on a forum and ask all and sundry when the next bear market will arrive, is an exercise in futility.
Bunyip
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Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET
Hi folks,
As per post above:
"24042006 should also be added to our key dates
to watch, as it is also on a critical cycle from
the Bali bombing, on 12 October 2002."
..... today, OBL issued a declaration of war, between
Muslims and Western cultures ... !~!
Let's hope they can eliminate him, first ... before
some radical cell decides to make an attack on
our own soil.
happy days
yogi
yogi-in-oz said:
Hi folks,
Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:
Time cycles between world events are the reasons
for our concern ..... for example, terrorists can count
too - it was exactly 1000 days from the bombings
in Spain to the attacks in London.
Similarly, 24042006 should also be added to our
key dates to watch, as it is also on a critical cycle
from the Bali bombing, on 12 October 2002.
happy days
yogi
Hi folks,
As per post above:
"24042006 should also be added to our key dates
to watch, as it is also on a critical cycle from
the Bali bombing, on 12 October 2002."
..... today, OBL issued a declaration of war, between
Muslims and Western cultures ... !~!
Let's hope they can eliminate him, first ... before
some radical cell decides to make an attack on
our own soil.
happy days
yogi
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: YOUR PREDICTIONS ON APPROCHING BEAR MARKET
So Downer is going to pull on some fatigues and grab an armalite and he's off to Iraq eh? What a *&^#ing tosser!
It's all BS to keep the plebs frightened folks. Do your own research!
yogi-in-oz said:
..... today, OBL issued a declaration of war, between
Muslims and Western cultures ... !~!
Alexander Downer said:
So Downer is going to pull on some fatigues and grab an armalite and he's off to Iraq eh? What a *&^#ing tosser!
It's all BS to keep the plebs frightened folks. Do your own research!
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yogi-in-oz said:
Posted this elsewhere on 07042006:
Time cycles between world events are the reasons
for our concern ..... for example, terrorists can count
too - it was exactly 1000 days from the bombings
in Spain to the attacks in London.
Similarly, 24042006 should also be added to our
key dates to watch, as it is also on a critical cycle
from the Bali bombing, on 12 October 2002.
yogi
Hi folks,
First, OBL make his latest declaration of war against
the West, now this .....
..... as per post above, the terrorists can count as well,
as evidenced by last night's bombings in Egypt ... !~!
..... next major date to monitor will be 08 June 2006.
happy trading
yogi
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Dr Marc Faber is arguably one of the best predictor of markets in recent times:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/faber041306.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/faber041306.html
Posting this here because not sure where else to post it... but why is today (4th May) down so much... especially resource stocks. Gold hasnt changed overnight, and the only commodity really down overnight is Lead. Looking at Kitco, most commodities arte no change or up slightly. Am I missing something.
Sorry but I am new to the investment game and just trying to learn.
Cheers.
Sorry but I am new to the investment game and just trying to learn.
Cheers.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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RickG said:
Rick,
Technically, the metals markets look a bit toppy. Oil double topped and sold off viciously. Also Nick Radge pointed out quite some time ago, there is a confluense of fib levels at 5300 which may serve as strong resistance.
....and we about due a correction anyway
Sean K
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1451 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 73 points or 1.4% at 5200.0. Could end down 100 points, says Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken. "The 300-400 point index correction has started. Everyone knows it but no one wants to believe it. Look how easily it's lost 70 points today. There's no volume because everyone's fully invested." Notes most stocks are down. Cites "sell in May, go away." (DWR)
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Yeah its all doom and gloom from here on out, you guys start selling as low as possible and I will just keep buying!
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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ctp6360 said:
Is it just stocks you wanna keep buying? 'Cause I've got a bunch of stuff in my shed I want to sell
By the way, you're not a shoe shine boy are you?
:
