Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Your predictions on approaching bear market

Jump to new
Too early to say whether this is the start of a sustainable correction imo.

We had bigger falls back in Oct and the market rebounded soon after.

But buying now on the way down is frought with danger imo because there is a good chance that stocks could be even cheaper next week in spite of any dead cat bounce.

But I see the LPT sector (XPJ) is holding up well today :)

cheers

bullmarket :)
 
Definately more scope to consolidate. Obviously edgy investors out there waiting for an excuse to lock in some profits. If some REAL negative news comes out then hold on to your hats. Stop losses by the pros will see some big falls. Then it'll be a great time to generally invest in this long term commodities bull.
 
bullmarket said:
Too early to say whether this is the start of a sustainable correction imo.

We had bigger falls back in Oct and the market rebounded soon after.

But buying now on the way down is frought with danger imo because there is a good chance that stocks could be even cheaper next week in spite of any dead cat bounce.

But I see the LPT sector (XPJ) is holding up well today :)

cheers

bullmarket :)
Click to expand...
I agree bullmarket, it is too early to call this. Personally however as I stated in this thread some 2 weeks ago, we are in the early stages of a very significant correction that will last much longer than most pundits expect. For short term commodities traders, I beleive there will be a lot of "knife catching" going on.
Personally I see as written in earlier posts, rotation out of the resources and banks into cheaper and better for value issues. After all this is just a big merry go round. Three years ago it was resource stocks that represented great value, and nobody wanted them. Now everyone wants to own them, which is precisely the reason to exit. Maybe jump in again in 2-3 years time, for the next leg of the secular bull market in gold.

For now find undervalued stoxx that nobody wants is my motto.

Cheers
 
ctp6360 said:
Yeah its all doom and gloom from here on out, you guys start selling as low as possible and I will just keep buying!
Click to expand...

Im on your team.
 
The greater and more extensive a man's knowledge of what has gone before, the better will be his ability of knowing and coping, and most of all, what to do now.
 
ctp6360 said:
tech/a, I hope you did as well as I did this morning :)
Click to expand...


HZN has been my accumulator.
Got a bit of PYM.

Its an on going thing.
Emotion can be highly profitable.
 
Wayne

Jose posted an interesting chart sequence on Reef. Within the USA.
This bears (Pun intended) out your and others veiw on the real BEAR at work in what appears to be a bullish market---

It shows the in the top chart the falling value of the US $$.
The middle chart is the rising DOW.
The bottom chart is the REAL value of the DOW relative to the purchasing power of the US $$.

So rising stock market decreasing buying power.
Australia however has rising EVERYTHING.
 

Attachments

  • DJIA jose.gif
    DJIA jose.gif
    11.2 KB · Views: 82
:)

Hi folks,

Here's why, being short on the indices may well
be injurious to you wealth, no matter what the
gurus may say:

"05-08052006 ... should be positive cycle for DOW"

..... DOW up + 138 points ..... and a new high(?)

Quote above was taken from a post in the SPI
thread, on 29042006 ... see post, below.

-----

So, why did the shorts get it wrong this time ...???

Simply, it was not TIME to go short ..... !~!

This means, that despite all their EW analysis,
there was an important factor that was overlooked.

While EW may be a guide to how the market is
unfolding, it has a fundamental flaw ... that is, if we
take 100 EW exponents and compare their analysis,
we will likely come up with almost as many opinions
about the wave count ..... that's because, very few
of them can agree, even about WHERE TO START
their wave count !~!

-----

So, to prove the validity of their analysis, another
INDEPENDENT means of evaluation is needed, to either
provide confirmation or render their findings invalid.

One area that most chartists ignore is the TIME axis
on our charts, yet TIME being constant, it is much
EASIER to evaluate, than the variable PRICE axis .....

..... and believe it, TIME CYCLE analysis thrives on
the KISS principle.

Earlier in this thread, the Fibonacci sequence was mentioned
and it is often associated with EW, as sometimes the
waves fall into line, with the projected Fibo numbers.

Now, Fibo numbers are part of a natural sequence, accredited
to Fibonacci, but known and recognised by the Pythagorean
Jews, with their "Harmony of the Spheres." ie ... they knew
about the relationship between the orbit of Earth and Venus.

A ratio, that has been in existence for millions of years,
circulating right above our heads and a ratio, that not even
GWB can change .....

Just as the Fibo sequence can be used on the PRICE axis,
so too it can be used to analyze the constant TIME, with
projections from previous highs and lows to key dates
ahead, where there may be a breakout, pause or reversal
in the market being evaluated.

-----

Key dates below were NOT derived using the Fibo sequence.
Instead, our TIME cycle analysis is derived by using Gann's
astrotools and an ephemeris. Very SIMPLE stuff, it is too !~!

Skeptix say, "its not possible" ... but so far, as per the post
below, our scoreboard favours the astrotraders ..... :)

... let's see how the rest of it unfolds, over the coming weeks.

We should also invite the skeptix to post their own take on
the DOW and XJO, for the same dates .....

( ..... it just won't happen !~! )

-----

In summary, ignoring the TIME axis on our charts, means
that we are using less than 50% of the information, that
any chart has to offer ..... :)

have a great weekend

yogi

:)

=====

Posted here, in the SPI thread, on:

29th-April-2006, 11:41 PM #1361

Hi folks,

A quick note on our May 2006, DOW/XJO overview .....

05-08052006 ... should be positive cycle for DOW
(posted 138 point gain here, already)

10-12052006 ... particularly strong DOW cycle

17-18052006 ... positive cycle for XJO and
Aussie dollar moves, too ...(???)

26-29052006 ... negative news/moves for XJO

07062006 ... more negativity for XJO .....
alert for a big world event here

12-13062006 ... 2 positive cycles for DOW

happy days

yogi
 
TAX time people. May is always a sheitty month, and to a lesser extent June. Have lots of fun!!
 
Warning: 14 of 19 bear market signals triggered, Bank of America says

Some are saying that the end of the current bull market, the longest in American history, is near. There are suggestions that corporate profit growth will begin to decelerate in the next couple of quarters. Personally, I don't think the next major catalyst is far away and that 2018 is just a prelude for 2019. Hang on tight, we're in for a bumpy ride.
 
Stock markets looking grim around the world. Some analysts are talking of capitulation.

Asia Pacific shares plunge into bear territory amid fears over global economy
Markets fall from Sydney to Shanghai as analyst warns that broad selloff could turn into a ‘capitulation’

Martin Farrer

Thu 25 Oct 2018 16.30 AEDT First published on Thu 25 Oct 2018 13.31 AEDT

Shares
138

Comments
249

Shares in Asia Pacific have plunged into bear market territory and wiped billions off the values of companies as one analyst warned that the losses could be a harbinger of a wholesale “capitulation”.

After the worst day for tech stocks on Wall Street for seven years, markets were in retreat from Sydney to Shanghai as concerns about the global economy and rising borrowing costs were compounded by local factors.

In Australia the benchmark ASX200 closed down 164 points or 2.8% as it suffered its fifth straight day of losses. In Japan the Nikkei was off 3.2% and has now dropped around 13% from a 27-year peak of 24,448.07 touched in early October.

A broad indicator of shares in the region – the MSCI Asia Pacific index – has now fallen 20.3% from the year-to-date high set on 29 January, representing an official bear market. The Vix “fear” index, which measures volatility across the market, has spiked sharply this week and was up 21% overnight.

“We haven’t thought that selling would be this steep. This sell-off makes us think the market may be set for capitulation,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...fears-ftse-markets-global-economy-intensifies
 
How much have Trump's policies got to do with this ?

All indications were that the US economy was in "great shape", falling unemployment, low inflation etc so what is actually wrong and why did the "correction" happen suddenly ? Was it due to algorithmic trading triggering sell orders all at once, and/or are the underlying problems with Trump's policies coming home to roost ?

Or is it the Fed's fault for raising interest rates ?
 

Similar threads

Rosscoe62
18.6 Year Property/Sharemarket Cycle …
Replies
0
Views
346
Rosscoe62
Rosscoe62
ducati916
September 2024 DDD
2 3 4
Replies
66
Views
9K
qldfrog
qldfrog
ducati916
November 2024 DDD
2 3
Replies
53
Views
4K
ducati916
ducati916
R
SSAC - iShares MSCI ACWI UCITS ETF
Replies
2
Views
854
Sean K
Sean K
A
Long term plan to invest in a few ETFs
Replies
13
Views
2K
Value Collector
Value Collector
Top