You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit

[WaySolid]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

My last share trade was selling out of an oiler (THK) several days before it doubled it's share price.

I wish I had Tech/A's trading record over the last 3 or so years!!

I'm not sure what this might imply about about the veracity of your other statements Money-Tree, I'm guessing it isn't positive however.

At the risk of continuing the off-thread guff that is now happening here I shall continue just briefly.

"Play the ball not the man!!" This was my interpretation of what Joe said and what should be considered standard etiquette. If it was easy to make money over the last 3 years and Tech has just been lucky then post how YOU MADE MONEY and lets benefit from your wisdom, if not then I really don't see how attacking someone personally helps anyone. And personal flaming is a trademark of a TROLL.

I wouldn't have commented further except for my name being dragged into this rubbish.

I am not Tech/A. Ask Joe for IP confirmation.

Now stop TROLLING and start CONTRIBUTING (or don't post at all)!

BYE!

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

oh and waysolid is another tech/a nick

just look at the avatars, they are from the same nature series of screensavers!

money tree,

As administrator, I have access to the IP's used by every member. I can assure you that tech/a and waysolid have never used the same internet connection. The avatars you mention are some of the default avatars you can find in the 'edit avatar' section of your UserCP.

However, you seem to be sharing an internet connection with crashy. So you either are him or you have access to the same internet connection he does.

I have been trying to avoid getting involved in this dispute but with accusations being thrown around left, right and centre I have been forced into becoming involved. I have gone to great lengths to make my position as administrator a non-political one but this little dispute is getting out of hand and I'd like to see it resolved.

Please understand that I am not taking anyone's side. I'm not interested in taking sides, I am interested in enforcing the rules of Aussie Stock Forums and trying to make this place run smoothly. That is my priority.

If you are crashy, as I suspect, I hope you and tech/a can work out your differences or perhaps just agree to disagree as you are both valued contributors to this site. Either way, I am rapidly tiring of all this mudslinging.

 

[money tree]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

its ok, I am using my wifes login IP

rofl!

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

its ok, I am using my wifes login IP

rofl!

What my wife login's IP? I do not think you can do that that easy.

Joe Blow as you are checking some IP addresses, I will recommend you to check for IP ranges instead of a particular IP address. I can change my IP address as many times as I want but I can not change my ISP as easy as that.

 

[idribble]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

hi tech/a. is your system profitable in a bear market, can you backtest it or lead me to a site where you have already provided this information.

 

[tech/a]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Dribbles.

Thanks for asking.

Yes actually it tested profitable.Infact the 20000 Montecarlo tests we did on the method (Thats like giving 20000 people $100000 each giving them the method and then asking them to trade it and report back in 8 yrs(the test period) with the results).

There are around 400 pages on Reefcap and its one hell of a job wading through pages of discussion.About a year ago I placed all the discussion on a disk for ease of reference.Im happy to send you a disk so you can follow the full developement and testing and discussions.

Just let me know your postal address and Ill send one out.
Dont take my word for it!

Also remember that the average trade length is around 1 yr and equity curves only record closed trades.
Open profit isnt considered in testing until its inclusion at the very end of a test period.

Infact if you looked at the results of TechTraders closed Trades to date the result is pretty average.However open equity is massive.UTB for instance has been open for 2.5 yrs and bought at $3 odd. its now $11 or so.
TOL
QBE are a few others off the top of my head.
Antway more to evaluation than meets the eye.
Im not here or about to convince anyone about anything to do with the method it is and was presented as an example.

 

[RichKid]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

There are around 400 pages on Reefcap and its one hell of a job wading through pages of discussion.About a year ago I placed all the discussion on a disk for ease of reference.Im happy to send you a disk so you can follow the full developement and testing and discussions.

Wow TechA! You must have learnt a lot just by testing it! Do you plan to market it at some stage as a package with instructions or is it just there for people to learn in a do it yourself package (ie go through 400pgs)?
I'm going to have to find some long hours to wade through the pages you mentioned to learn what I can. BTW, what's to stop some blackbox promoter copying your system and selling it? Just a thought as most traders aren't as open as you since they don't want others to take their system. Hope I haven't misunderstood anything here, still learning.

 

[tech/a]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Just to add a little more.
This method is a nett long /long term trading methodology.
It has done very well over the last 2.5 yrs and you would expect it to as thats what its designed for!!

The question is often asked about performance in less than idealic times.
The definative answer and what I personally will be doing is simply following the method,and if at anytime its Peak To Valley Maximum Drawdown recorded during Montecarlo analysis is greater than that found during testing (21% I think from memory) Then I will exit all positions.(Peak to Valley is from the highest peak of equity to lowest low of equity before a new high is made.) So if I had $100K in open and close equity and iy=t dropped to 80k then Id exit all positions.

Im also looking at another methodology addition with Jose Silva at the moment---always room to improve.

Personally I feel that even in downtimes there are some stocks which out perform the index some by vast amounts.It is these we all try to find and ride as long as we can.So far the method has been successful in flagging some wonderful trades and time will tell if this continues.
We can only trade the market as it is and make plans for times which are not as favorable,and each will have different ideas as to what those plans should be.

In the meantime enjoy the great run we are having.

tech

 

[tech/a]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Rich.

I have no intention of selling it.Never had.Its there for all to use as a template, as a conversation piece,motivational tool whatever.
I know of 16 traders who are using it as it is or with twists that they have included.All are enjoying the goodtimes.As you would expect.

I guess there is nothing stopping anyone copying and selling it as a B/B method.I couldnt be bothered policing it.Anyway its available for anyone for free and there are pages of developement text that would make it impossible for a B/B seller to protect.

It took 6-8 mths I think to eventually settle on the current method traded,hence the massive amounts of discussion.

As for leaning a lot sure did and thats what I pass on here---at no fee, gratis,without charge and no strings attached----to feed my ego ofcourse!!

 

[RichKid]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Rich.

I have no intention of selling it.Never had.Its there for all to use as a template, as a conversation piece,motivational tool whatever.
I know of 16 traders who are using it as it is or with twists that they have included.All are enjoying the goodtimes.As you would expect.

Would you say that you have to have Metastock or a similar programme to trade the TechTrader system, my guess is you would and the 16 traders you mention probably do(?), I don't have Metastock but does it come with tools for calculating positive expectancy etc or do you have to use excel for that? ie is the money money mgmgt software independant of the trading software? Would be great if they were intergrated.

I don't have any software (other than what Comsec provides) so I'm wondering if is workable without the software, even Van Tharp refers to software for his method but that may just be to sell his products (I think he does mention students of his who sell integrated software).

As for leaning a lot sure did and thats what I pass on here---at no fee, gratis,without charge and no strings attached----to feed my ego ofcourse!!

Ha, ha, glad you have a sense of humour too! You can munch on these posts...

 

[tech/a]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Yes you need software.

M/S gives the capability to search the market for prospects and TRADESIM the texting capacity and all the Positive expectancy drawdown type reports.
The Operations Manual for Tradesim is a fantastic tool for learning what evry function does.and its place in the scheme of developing a trading method.

There are some traders who have formulated it for AMIBROKER and if I was starting out Id use that!
Infact Im seriously looking at it due to its superior performance(can do more).

 

[RichKid]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Thanks Tech, looks like this is going to take me awhile, had quick look at the TRADESIM site, so many versions:
http://www.compuvision.com.au/

Amibroker looks great too (and seems cheaper and more flexible too- open API):
http://www.amibroker.com/

As I understand it Tradesim (portfolio analysis/simulation tool?) is an add on to Metastock (charting software) whereas Amibroker incorporates both charting and portfolio analysis/simulation.
In which case is it a no-brainer to get Amibroker? My only aim in purchasing the software is to implement the money mgmt/positive expectancy approach via TA so I guess Amibroker would be the best for our puposes.

Am I correct Tech about my observations above re the software for implementing positive expectancy? Thought you'd know much more as you use it and I've only spent a few minutes reading the ads on the websites. I know there's a thread on software but this is more about what's best for positive expectancy calculations/mgmt.

 

[RodC]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Rich,

I've got the techtrader code for amibroker if you want (it will save you searching for it).

Rod.

 

[RichKid]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Rich,

I've got the techtrader code for amibroker if you want (it will save you searching for it).

Rod.

I'm a bit out of my depth atm trying to get around this software stuff but if you could send it via private msg (if that is possible) I'd be much obliged.
Thanks!

 

[idribble]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Yes actually it tested profitable.Infact the 20000 Montecarlo tests we did on the method (Thats like giving 20000 people $100000 each giving them the method and then asking them to trade it and report back in 8 yrs(the test period) with the results).

that doesn’t actually answer the question whether this system is proven in a bear market.

The question is often asked about performance in less than idealic times.
The definative answer and what I personally will be doing is simply following the method,and if at anytime its Peak To Valley Maximum Drawdown recorded during Montecarlo analysis is greater than that found during testing (21% I think from memory) Then I will exit all positions.(Peak to Valley is from the highest peak of equity to lowest low of equity before a new high is made.) So if I had $100K in open and close equity and iy=t dropped to 80k then Id exit all positions.

this statement confirms your strategy for exiting positions in a bear market but contradicts your platform of knowing what to expect because the test conditions do not cover a bear market.

you've obviously got a system that has shown good results over a short period of time, but go back to the late eighties and see how well it performs. you seem to be very reluctant to disclose that you have not backtested this system. i don't understand why.

 

[tech/a]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Dribbles.

Not at all.again there are 400 pages of information on the design and testing available on disk.

To test a system on stocks back as far as the 80s is practically impossible due to survivorship.The system is designed having the BT margin list as its universe of stocks.The test period selected was and is 8 yrs in which there was a period of downward movement in the ORDS index.The BT margin list now and then were and are different but not a great deal we did select the list in the year of testing,but back in the 80s particularly early 80s are vastly different.
In answer to your question it has been tested over the 8 yr period stated and over many variants,5,6,7, etc

Dont know what all the fuss is about your under no obligation to do anything with the method its offered to people for their own use.You dont have to trade it---agree with its results or the way its tested.

The fact is its being traded and so far has performed as it has.I havent traded it in a bearish period but if one comes along then Ill trade it as stated.

As for what to expect----- the system in testing made a profit in the bearish period which was less than bullish years and that to would be expected.

I just scrolled thru some of the pages to find something that may help.This is an equity curve of the method at the time of testing look at the dates to see how it performed in the periods your interested in.This is from 97 to 2002 we ran 100s of tests.

Anyway what exactly are you looking for?
If you cant find it in whats here or presented discard it Ive not said its the Holy Grail of methods!Infact I trade another one as well as this which is weekly and superior.Each have their day so thats why I keep them both.

Finally as much as I would like to test the method back 30 yrs I just dont have the data and I dont know where to get clean data that would include all delisted stocks.Even then it wouldnt be the BT margin list.
Ive also tried it on the Full ASX and its returns are average but on par with any Fund.I tested it for a guy in Hong Kong and the results were better than in AUST.


Can you explain to me why the necessity to prove XYZ on something which is offered as a free methodology from which people can work from.

If having a necessity for YOUR method to be proven to perform to X in a bear market then fine you can do that.We were and are happy with the results and started trading it----- the results are posted each week.

Why would you expect a long/long term method to go gang busters in a market its not designed for.Its results are ofcourse averaged over time.

Anyway if you or someone CAN get me clean data back to X then I really would love to test it over that time on the full index.Ill gladly pay for the data and gladly post the results---- Im as curious as you are!

If it was a method tested against an index then data is available as it is for futures.

Let me know if there is anything specific I can find for you.Youll note that some years performed worse than others.

Before you ask the flat and negative period for the first 2 yrs is common due to it being a longterm method.Trades are held for over a year so there would be only those that were stopped or exited well under the average hold period.
In the method shown on REEF UTB has been held since inception so its 400% gain isnt shown on any equty curve as its still open.It is however shown on Darrels continuous equity graph,which he composes from Excell.

Anyway its what I trade and I havent asked or invited anyone else to trade it!If you find it useful fine if not ignore it!

tech

 

[RichKid]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

That graph tells me what discipline is all about, imagine the strain of watching long flat periods if you didn't have confidence in your system! And here's me panicking when I'm down a bit in a month!

 

[tech/a]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Rich.

These graphs are constructed from closed trades as only when they are closed can the software record the results of the trade.
Win/Lose or Draw.

In reality we would only have a couple closing every few months with this long term method,and of a portfolio of 10 it would be fully invested in 99.9% of the time.So we would have open equity to follow as to how well we were travelling.

The chart below is one of the open profit week to week in the method as its being traded.Its equity curve(Join the tops of the bars) is much smoother than that of any closed trades equity curve of any long term method.

 

[dutchie]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

I was wondering, whether you were a professional/amateur/experienced/beginner and irrespective of what method/strategy is used, if the first FILTER to be used is GUT FEELING.

I think in my short experience that it is (conciously or unconsciously).

Would be interested to hear from more experienced traders whether they pulled back from entering a position (even though all their signals/ research etc was positive) because they just did not feel good about it.

Is having good gut feeling instincts what is needed to be in the 3% ??

 

[tech/a]

Re: You can be in the 3% that make a consistant profit.

Dutchie.

Speaking for myself emotion isnt in the equation,the whole idea of trading mechanically is to rid yourself of these emotions.

Then it becomes purely a numbers game which is exactly what I trade.
Its also what Im attempting to get across here-----that it doesnt matter HOW you trade---even GUT feel----if you have positive expectancy and you KNOW what YOUR NUMBERS are then you will be in the 3% if the NUMBERS arent right then youll end up in the 97%.

In answer to your question in my case I wouldnt advise it your guessing the market and it will do what it does inspite of your gut feelings Just look at the MUL thread.

Let Price action be your determinate.