XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isn't the top!

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

MichaelD said:

Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably? I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing. If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours. Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies". Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.

Why?

The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.

I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.

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Great post Michael.
Probably your best so far.

Have you read Trend Followers by Michael Covel? Speaks on the same lines.

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

nizar said:

Have you read Trend Followers by Michael Covel? Speaks on the same lines.

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Not yet. One day I will. (And thanks for the compliments.)

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

When is the evidence coming out tech?

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Snake
Sometime this arvo when I have a few hrs to knock it up.

Is it necessary to know where the market is going to trade profitably?

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No but to MAXIMISE return and to take advantage of OPPORTUNITY ABSOLUTELY

I observe with great interest the sudden explosion in analysis since the market turned at 6000. Before that, there was nary a predictive whisper to be found. Now, all we are hearing about is Elliot A-B-Cs and what China/the DOW/the NIKKEI are doing.

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Id say after the 200 point in one day drop in the ORDS that tends to get attention.As this is a forum for discussion on Australian stocks and their analysis it doesnt suprise me.

If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours.

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Human nature unless your an ostrich

Bull market champions are suddenly becoming bottom drawer long term holders of "good companies".

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Some not all

Systematic traders are suddenly doubting their plans and trading skills. If anyone presents a view, out come the links to analysis or news stories which back up this view. The contrary view gets the exact same treatment.

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Nothing new here.

Why?

The markets are an uncertain place. Humans crave certainty, and will also seek affirmation that their world view is the correct one.

I used to look at charts of the XAO and the XJO every day as part of my trading routine. I haven't looked at them for months. All I know is that none of my long term trend following stops have been hit yet, and that's all I need to know at this precise moment in time. Additional information, whilst intellectually interesting, is superfluous (and possibly detrimental) to trading profitably.

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Possibly to YOUR trading Michael but dont place all in the market in the same boat.

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

If the market goes down, out come the negative stories and fears. If the market goes up, everything's alright with the world again for another 24 hours.

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[tongue in cheek]I am really very insulted by this. Have you ignored the great lengths I have gone to post as much doom and negative stories as I have over the last 2 years as the market has risen? [/tongue in cheek]

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

wayneL said:

Have you ignored the great lengths I have gone to post as much doom and negative stories as I have over the last 2 years as the market has risen?

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Hehehe. Permabears excluded.

Tech/A said:

Possibly to YOUR trading Michael but dont place all in the market in the same boat.

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If you give 1024 people a coin and record their tosses, chances are that 1 of them will come up with 10 heads and one with 10 tails.

Does that make them skillful coin tossers? Or were they fooled by randomness?

There's a lot of that thinking applicable to bull market trading conditions. It takes more than a short run of profitable trading with any methodology to convince me that the methodology has an edge. This continues to apply to my short term methodology - it's had a positive expectancy in every month I've tested and traded it in, but I'm still yet to convince myself that this isn't just blind chance. I'll be convinced by the end of the year if it continues to perform.

To put this another way - I don't think I have very much trading skill, so I am loathe to attribute my current success to this rather than randomness.

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

If you give 1024 people a coin and record their tosses, chances are that 1 of them will come up with 10 heads and one with 10 tails.

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Of course the trick here is to pick WHICH ONES.

In all seriousness Understanding the crowd is more benificial than attempting to find and indeed trade outliers.
But we (well most) have a go at it!

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

To the EVIDENCE.

But firstly some background which gave rise to the evidence.
Over the years Elliot Wave keeps re occuring as a major form of analysis when looking forward---Ive yet to see another presented (perhaps other than Frankee D's work).
There are and can be varying wave counts from practitioners with these counts all obeying the "Rules", this can also--probably more so--happen within Elliot Software.
Its extremely difficult for most to get their head around the way wave counts change and why---Beyond this discussion--but pertinent to the evidence.

If traders can accept the "Prove---disprove---prove---disprove" aspect of ALL analysis, explanation of the above becomes a lot clearer--I think.---not how and why but that it can and will. Only time will prove--or disprove the analysis---any analysis, even fundamental analysis.

The latest Edition of Advanced GET rolled up last week, it was during my investigation of the software that I found the following and "The Evidence".

Firstly GET labels all highest highs with a wave count---if the price moves up next day so does the wave count--retracements or corrective patterns/waves arent labelled until a complete A,B,C is confirmed.
No problems thats the dynamic nature of the Analysis.
GET also only labels 300 bars so some higher degree analysis will not be accurate as they take longer than 300 periods to complete---GET will "Make it fit"

To the XJO.
There is a COMPLETE count on the Weekly XJO chart showing a 5 wave completion in 3 degrees. 5 of 5 of 5
A culmination of many years and important I believe to this.



GET's Daily count has it in a wave 4 corrective phase. With a wave 5 to come.
If The weekly is correct (Yes I know you dont mix time frames) BUT with a 5-5-5 completion you'd expect the daily to confirm.



So what if a wave 5 did occur what would happen to the weekly count.
Basically very little all wave 5s would simply extend---wave count remains the same. Here are the possible projected wave 5 completions:

WEEKLY



DAILY




Back to the daily. Most wave 5s come from triangle patterns--currently we seem to have a triangle pattern emerging in this corrective phase.




For the current 5 wave pattern to fail we would need the wave 4 to extend lower than the top of wave 1 in the same degree---unlikley.

The above is purely a WHAT IF---its hypothetical---it is NOT PROVEN

CURRENT analysis presented by Elliot wave practitioners IS CURRENTLY PROVEN and until price action PROVES the CURRENT analysis to be incorrect it must be presumed to be correct.

Authorised by a Duck! Educational purposes only.

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Thanks Tech/A. Interesting software. Will be interesting to see this unfold. GET might have a few more buyers...

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

What is your peak month Tech? End of March 2007(looks steep)? or later ... April May?

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Kenna's
Has evidently won the best trading software award from Stocks and Commodities mag for many years in a row.Pretty pricy.

Atomic.
Some of the experienced Elliot wavers would be able to place a likely or possible timeframe on it---beyond my capability at this time.

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

If thats a wave 4 then is it right, by EW to say that wave 5 should be complex? If that was case then it would be a longish time frame, yes?

Cheers,

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:

Kenna's
Has evidently won the best trading software award from Stocks and Commodities mag for many years in a row.Pretty pricy.

Atomic.
Some of the experienced Elliot wavers would be able to place a likely or possible timeframe on it---beyond my capability at this time.

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Certainly interesting Tech.

Just look at last May when everybody was predicting the high then, and all the negativity about the US economy etc.The fundamentals are the same now as then, so no reason why we can't make new highs.

However Elliot wave/ fib has nothing to do with fundamentals so going way off track here.

The prove / disprove theory works well. If the triangle breaks to the downside, then we have the zigzag pattern down to a wave 4 as in Techs chart. Even this may not be the full A.B,C down though. If we get 5 waves going down it gets more interesting because then we have something more serious.

5 waves down can only be impulsive therefore the end of that sequence must be down to a larger degree wave a with a big leg down to the wave C.

But now we are getting ahead of ourselves, one step at a time.It is a never ending story using Elliot Wave so maybe best to stick to the shorter time frames.

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Could be worth mentioning then that Wave 5 CAN be the longest and this has a tendency to occur in futures markets and on stock indices.

rule:
"The maximum movement of Wave 5 is six times Wave 3 in both price and time."

guideline:
"Wave 5 will usually move beyond the end of Wave 3."

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Tech,

Been using AGet now for the best part 7 years. It's wave counts are simplistic and not actually to be used as a stand alone. Tom Joseph the creater has openly said this. AGet is a semi mechanical Elliott package and deals specifically with type 1 and type 2 setups such that the computer based wavecounts are to be used in conjuction with displaced MA's, 5-35 oscillator, PT Index and Channeling lines.
These trades are fine, but I found they are few and to far in between. Also AGet falls over in that there is too much emphasis on completing impulses (5 wave termination) and very little in terms of finding potential wave 3's. Tom Joseph created the "breakout bands" function for this but it's lousy.

I quickly discarded the wavecounts and these days I just use AGet as a whiteboard and marker. I prefer to use software that has the flexibility to be able to write code, so that I can create the tools I need to compliment the EW background. Such packagas are Amibroker, Wealthlab, XLAnalyzer, and MS to name a few.

As Magdoran has previously said, the best computer is the one in between your ears.

AGet misses out too many important nuances in my opinion. I beleive if you want to really get a handle on the market, then you have to trade in the 3 dimensions:-

Price
Pattern
Time

Each of these requires much study and reaearch in their own right.

I spent a hell of a lot of time as many others do on the pattern and price aspects but it wasn't enough for the sort of trading I wanted to perform. The timing element is crucial IMO. It's probably the hardest to nut out as well.

For the market to make a new high, it's not impossible as the market will do what it will, but the tools we use and have at our disposal say it's a low probability from here.

Cheers

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Waves.
What your saying makes complete sense.

I can also see that the stups you mention dont require perfect accuracy.
I'm sure Ill find exactly as you have.I dont expect AGET to be "The Answer" and agree with Moggi's statement.
However for me at least I'm hoping it will help me in pattern,time and price
education.

My intention is to use it in conjunction with other analysis VSA and conventional analysis,I'm sure youve been there---any comment?

My feeling is the results would be relative to trader competency,not only in analysis but trade management.

For those who had very little knowledge GET would be like giving a Jumbo jet to a "P" plate driver. There is much they wouldnt or couldnt recognise and could be very dangerous.(To the Wallet).

Its not the way to profit although watching the intro DVD some would believe its time to mortgage the house!------its just another tool.
The Fake bar stochastic for example simply draws a line while the price remains in a trend and forces the trader to use Stochastic AS IT SHOULD be used---with the trend.

All part of the education.
Appreciate your comments.

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:

Waves.

My intention is to use it in conjunction with other analysis VSA and conventional analysis,I'm sure youve been there---any comment?

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Tech,

Never touched VSA. Hopefully will one day when I get time which is rare these days. But have more than enough to get through in the next 2 years. I am sure it can compliment and become an integral part.

The market magnitude fluctuations are going to pick up in the coming months, not good for the buy and holders and they will be pulling their hair out. But will be profitable for the traders who get the timing right.

Cheers

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

dosn't this boil down to the hierarchy of time frame of charts ?

As both Wavepicker and Mag pointed out when i queried this about Aget's recent labeling of the XJO .
Both came back with the standard answer for all T/A -- : Weekly - Daily - Intraday .

But for general overall use of EW for us mere mortals I thought Kauri's post No86 in the Elliott Wave thread hit the nail on the head --- this post whilst not anywhere near the most lavish about EW on this site , for me is by fair the most useful -this I can employ NOW and incorporate into " Pattern Trading " methods


Cheers

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

tech/a said:

Well,Ive got pretty compelling evidence---not conclusive but still compelling that the top which has just been called may infact not be the top.

The evidence is in technical form. Which has been relied upon in this latest analysis of the current top.

I havent the time to post up all that is needed to present the arguement but will over the Weekend.

Seems I'm not alone one other has contacted me with thoughts of his own,You know who you are Steve!

Hey I'm a Duck not a Sheep!!

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So where's the evidence?
Please don't say this hopped up hindsight, change the count after the fact software package is the evidence.

jog on
d998

Re: XJO--What if the majority are wrong?--Maybe this isnt the top!

Duc.

The Evidence is exactly where the evidence is that indicates that my above posts maybe incorrect.

If you cant see either/accept or even wish to attempt to understand------fine.There was a time that my skepticism far outweighed that which you carry.

That which I present is not meant to influence anyone it is purely analysis ( Voodoo) as I see it.

As we seem to currently have 2 polarised views (Other than those who dont have one---or dont care too) A top of significance has been reached and will not be breached for sometime and now --Perhaps it may not be the top of significance.

Frankly I dont care if in your eyes its utter rubbish.

Rubbish is a legitimate form of analysis

Real
Understanding of
Basic
Bull**it
In
Sufficient
Hindsite.

Ive been doing very well over the years trading Absolute Rubbish. Which is of course the more advanced form. Takes years to master.

Stirs up discussion.

Coyotte.
I agree with Kauri.
This is what I have in mind with Elliot.
You have the opportunity to view "Where you are " in the context of the trade.Where its been and where its likely to go.
Traded with other analysis gives greater probability in my view.
When its all boiled down its just numbers again---