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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

willow said:
My post was mainly for those who are not interested in being involved on any pullback or correction whatsoever. If someone wants to wait for a series of lower lows and highs on the weekly chart before taking action then that's ok with me too. I trade more shorter term than that so I often hold off on trading when things are starting to look iffy. Even a pullback on a weekly chart to me is trouble.
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That is my point. Why would you look at a weekly chart and read something into it on a lower time frame. Why wait for a seris of weekly periods to trade on a daily basis. A weekly chart could take months to turn and if it does then and you are trading on a daily basis, like most, surely the daily chart would of signal trouble ahead much sooner.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Gooday Nikki, I'ts good to have more insight on Dow theory. I've been following that website for a while now and I find them very thorough in the evidence they produce, but granted it doesn't surprise me you have found evidence to the contrary or a different way someone looks at it. Another website I follow and respect says this will be a good year for stocks and gives their reasons why. I am listening to these fellows because my technicals are also giving a warning to be cautious, nothing else, not to jump on shorts yet, or longs, just stand aside and watch.
I am glad you will be doing what you believe and going long, I have found it is better to do your own thing than follow what others say and usually more profitable. Good luck.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand, of course I look at the dailies and I see difficult trading since mid October. The reason for the weekly chart apart from what the chart itself is showing, is because that is what I decided to post. To me it shows a better picture of what we could be in for and I will revert back to the dailies to take action. Did you find it interesting how a pullback happened on the Xjo after the rsi pulled back to it's trendline on those few occasions?. Of course things may change and these rsi pullbacks fail. Just check out what I posted then do what you want, I'm not that interested in spending too much time defending my position. Cheers.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

224 points? What the heck is that :banghead:
Even by Dow standards, that's a pretty heavy drop.

I honestly thought we'd avoid a drop today - considering we already dropped last week rather considerably :confused:

Has anyone had any success in taking a market vacation - as in just not looking at the market for a month or 2, & hoping for the best? :(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Time to hit the bottom of the channel again?

Around 6115 by my chart.

GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Some P&F studies using the S&P 300

( There is a lot of noise in the broader market and the 300 contains what matters anyway )

Bullish % is bear confirmed ( but not from an overly overbought position )

45% of stocks in the 300 are still on a P&F 3box reversal double top buy signal..........

The bullish% is posted as a P&F chart and as a line chart superimposed on the bar chart ( note the long standing divergence . Signs of a maturing bull market )

IF we designate the top as a top ( distribution ) and identify preliminary supply... climax and a last point of supply.......Then the count , (which carries with it an implication--> Distribution means lower prices , and an objective------> a stop look and listen point.) Would have this back to the bottom of the trend channel.

If the same themes can carry forward..Then there could be very good buying at that level...If not.. then new themes will be needed to carry the market forward ( rotation.. watch the relative strengths )

What does not happen is as important as what does ( The Bullish% could go to bull confirmed....... downside implications negated etc )

OF those stocks still on P&F buy signals .. There are a lot of high pole warnings ( so a little lower and there will substantial fall in the bullish%
The oversold level reached on the last correction as noted at the time was extreme... hence there was a powerful rally without a cause ( rally from oversold position )

Posted material on the bullish% before
Google should throw up a few links.

for discussion

also note the ease of movement on the bar chart atm

motorway
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
224 points? What the heck is that :banghead:
Even by Dow standards, that's a pretty heavy drop.

I honestly thought we'd avoid a drop today - considering we already dropped last week rather considerably :confused:

Has anyone had any success in taking a market vacation - as in just not looking at the market for a month or 2, & hoping for the best? :(
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Cheer up Nyden, tomorrow will be a better day. I promise. :cool:

The US seems to be relatively calm, might finish less than .5% down for Dow and S&P, Nasdag maybe less than 1%. Cu, Zn & Ni have taken a bit of a hit, but $US gaining a bit against the $A, and gold holding up.

I think we over estimated or mistimed the US reaction to the subprime rescue plan. I'm going to get a bit of shut eye and wake up to a better start here :D

Oh gaud just as I speak gold came back a couple.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Cheer up Nyden, tomorrow will be a better day. I promise. :cool:

The US seems to be relatively calm, might finish less than .5% down for Dow and S&P, Nasdag maybe less than 1%. Cu, Zn & Ni have taken a bit of a hit, but $US gaining a bit against the $A, and gold holding up.

I think we over estimated or mistimed the US reaction to the subprime rescue plan. I'm going to get a bit of shut eye and wake up to a better start here :D

Oh gaud just as I speak gold came back a couple.
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.5, eh? :( One more day like this, & I'm turning off the computer for 2 weeks! :D

I seem to have developed a cold or the likes, & I'm not thinking clearly - so, perhaps the vacation is the best thing right now :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Cheer up Nyden, tomorrow will be a better day. I promise. :cool:

The US seems to be relatively calm, might finish less than .5% down for Dow and S&P, Nasdag maybe less than 1%. Cu, Zn & Ni have taken a bit of a hit, but $US gaining a bit against the $A, and gold holding up.

I think we over estimated or mistimed the US reaction to the subprime rescue plan. I'm going to get a bit of shut eye and wake up to a better start here :D

Oh gaud just as I speak gold came back a couple.
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I hope you didn't bet the house on that promise there, mate :(

I've been thinking - is there anything that could truly save us this time, like the last? Last time we obviously had the US rate cut, which obviously set us up for huge gains, but - rate cuts just don't seem to help anymore? My question is, what possible trick could any government have up their sleeves to help this time?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I hope you didn't bet the house on that promise there, mate :(

I've been thinking - is there anything that could truly save us this time, like the last? Last time we obviously had the US rate cut, which obviously set us up for huge gains, but - rate cuts just don't seem to help anymore? My question is, what possible trick could any government have up their sleeves to help this time?
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There are no rabbits in the hat. Cutting interest rates takes 6-9mths to flow through into the economy despite any short-term rally it might produce. The problem is the greed and stupidity of the American banks and hedge funds and brokerages who created all sorts of financial instruments to on-sell, instruments that are backed by high-risk debt ie sub-prime mortgages. Think about it...bundle up a billion dollars worth of sub-prime mortgages and sell it. The next insto borrows $9b, puts in a $1b of their own money and then buys $10b of these products. The underlying mortgages are people who couldn't normally afford loans getting into the market through honeymoon deals and when the loan resets to a higher interest rate they are in trouble. Get 1000s of people in the same boat and the defaults hit and the onsold mortgages are worth nothing. It's like the mother of all margin-calls on the instos holding leveraged parcels of these products. The same greed and stupidity underwrites the whole American economy and the west in general where saving and investing was replaced by buying on credit and living beyond one's means. The resets on these loans peak around April next year so I believe the worst is yet to come.

I feel for all the responsible people who are hurting because of this debacle but I don't see any way any government can prevent the consequences of the mess we're in.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I hope you didn't bet the house on that promise there, mate :(

I've been thinking - is there anything that could truly save us this time, like the last? Last time we obviously had the US rate cut, which obviously set us up for huge gains, but - rate cuts just don't seem to help anymore? My question is, what possible trick could any government have up their sleeves to help this time?
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No Nyden. I'm not hurting too much yet. :eek:

As soon as I turned my back and went to bed, the bludy yanks started jumping over cliffs again.

One consellation is we got the bath over early then started to refloat a bit as the day went on.

I do concur with MS+Tradesim. The yanks are unbelievably greedy, cunning and deceitful in their commercial dealings and exporting their troubles.

I think the US needed to address the $ as a prerequesate of the yanke superiority complex as a factor of their Consumer Confidence. It looks to me like base metals might have been oversold a bit by traders along with stocks to get cash back into a firming $US and it also helps to lessen the need for further interest rate cuts.

So long as our economy stays sound I think we will bounce back better that the yanks, once they settle down and figure out where they're at.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Bullish interpretation anyone...

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Re: XAO Analysis

Actually, looking a bit closer at that chart, one could almost say that we are due for a technical rebound? We've had 5 days of excessive losses (on pretty much the same things that have been happening since August), and we finished near a day high after recouping some 2% today. If the bulls get their way, we could go up another 4-5% with a given a Santa rally (maybe somewhere around the 6500 region again), but if the US goes down again tonight, we will probably retest the 6100 level again or possibly lower. Will be interesting times ahead.

I'm tipping a rebound myself, probably through to Christmas, then a drop back after everyone recovers from their hangovers :D

Just my :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
Actually, looking a bit closer at that chart, one could almost say that we are due for a technical rebound? We've had 5 days of excessive losses (on pretty much the same things that have been happening since August), and we finished near a day high after recouping some 2% today. If the bulls get their way, we could go up another 4-5% with a given a Santa rally (maybe somewhere around the 6500 region again), but if the US goes down again tonight, we will probably retest the 6100 level again or possibly lower. Will be interesting times ahead.

I'm tipping a rebound myself, probably through to Christmas, then a drop back after everyone recovers from their hangovers :D

Just my :2twocents
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Later in the week is when the direction will come imo.

Bear and Stearns and Morgan Stanley report and if these are bad, i think santa will be well and truly buried.
 
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