XAO Technical Analysis

[wintermute]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well I'm pretty new at this trend line drawing stuff but here is what I came up with this morning....



I'm making a big assumption here that we are going to follow a similar pattern to May last year...

Tony.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just mucking around drawing some lines on the 5min XJO...

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well I'm pretty new at this trend line drawing stuff but here is what I came up with this morning....



I'm making a big assumption here that we are going to follow a similar pattern to May last year...

Tony.

Hey Tony,

What points value is the right Apex of the triangle you have drawn?

 

[wintermute]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Nizar, I didn't save the project... grumble grumble.. But on reloading it kinda put some of the stuff back... I believe it is at 5632 strange number but that was based on me duplicating the slope of the line further down for May last year, and it coincidentally lined up perfectly with the low point so far...

Tony.

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

2mrw i think its important whether or not the XAO will burst through 5800 or whether it will face resistance there.

Good recovery from the lows 2day.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

2mrw i think its important whether or not the XAO will burst through 5800 or whether it will face resistance there.

Good recovery from the lows 2day.

Yes, very good recovery this afternoon. But only back where it started really. This could go on for days before we get clear direction.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

XJO finishes at 5822, only due to the phantom bull surge this arvo on little selling pressure?.

A question for Fibonacci experts - what does it mean if the chart bounces between 2 fib levels eg between 50% & 38.2%?.

From from the 10 min XJO chart, what conclusions could be had, given, as I think, that the surge this afternoon was without substance, and the data from the US over the next 2 nights could be fairly ordinary?.

 

[lamborghini]

Re: XAO Analysis

All the trend lines drawn here for the XAO are good and point to the uptrend being still well in place.

BUT, trends reverse some time!

There is no point trying to pick it, best to be ready for it and plan how you trade it.

In uncertain times, physcology is even more important.

I believe last 40 minutes of Friday trading will tell the short term story!

Physcologically traders don't like leaving open positions over the weekend because if any news comes out it is usually bad news.

Is this upward movement a "Dead Cat Bounce"? Time will tell.

I'll trade it short if it is and long if it isn't.

For the record, I predict it is a dead cat bounce and next week we will see another small fall. In the weeks and months ahead I also predict fall through supports leading to a plunge bigger than last week. Maybe .... around MAY 2007.

There it is! Right or wrong it is in writing and only time will tell.

NOTE: I've detected some institutional money heading to BIO Techs and away from resources. I still like many resource stocks though.

 

[Kipp]

Re: XAO Analysis

For the record, I predict it is a dead cat bounce and next week we will see another small fall. In the weeks and months ahead I also predict fall through supports leading to a plunge bigger than last week. Maybe .... around MAY 2007.

There it is! Right or wrong it is in writing and only time will tell.

NOTE: I've detected some institutional money heading to BIO Techs and away from resources. I still like many resource stocks though.

I am curious as to why you picked MAY 07, any reasoning or are you just playing Nostradamis? From Winterminute's chart (which I quite liked) retracements in the XAO (well, the last 3 anyway...) seem to occur at roughly 7-8 month intervals... Mar 05, Oct 05, May 06 and now Feb 06... so I think we'll see our NEXT correction before May.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

A question for Fibonacci experts - what does it mean if the chart bounces between 2 fib levels eg between 50% & 38.2%?

I think it simply confirms their validity as support and resistance levels and indicates that the index is behaving in a nice, geometric fashion. Should make predicting future direction easy now, right?

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think it simply confirms their validity as support and resistance levels and indicates that the index is behaving in a nice, geometric fashion. Should make predicting future direction easy now, right?

If they coincide with price support and resistance levels then they have even more probability of validity.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

From what i can see on my chart using my analysis.

I am thinking this correction is over and we may start to move up again. so much buying support and yesterday was a real bullish show weak lead and so much buying support at the end of the day.

On the weekly chart the bulls are taking control also i dont belive things move in sync with the calender oct 05 correction oct 06 no correction. April 05 correction April 06 no correction.

I am looking for one more positive bar on the weekly with good volume to give confirmation.

All the people that think i am nuts please yell at me!

Just like what was said in above post only time will tell.

*above is my opinion and nothing more*

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Jobs data out of the US soon could determine things. If they go the way some analysts think then Monday could be choppy. The only thing that is certain at the moment is uncertainty.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???

the only thing missing for me now in voloume on the weekly.

but from what i have learn t need heavy volume on break out, deacressing volume could mean no one is selling and there is only buying.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: XAO Analysis

From what i can see on my chart using my analysis.

I am thinking this correction is over and we may start to move up again. so much buying support and yesterday was a real bullish show weak lead and so much buying support at the end of the day.

On the weekly chart the bulls are taking control also i dont belive things move in sync with the calender oct 05 correction oct 06 no correction. April 05 correction April 06 no correction.

I am looking for one more positive bar on the weekly to give confirmation.

All the people that think i am nuts please yell at me!

Just like what was said in above post only time will tell.

*above is my opinion and nothing more*

Not so much of a criticism here, more of a suggestion- the last couple of weeks have been a dream for anyone trading the index off support and resistance. If you can find any resistance above where we are trading this morning , I'd be careful about opening longs.

But then again, I'm a pretty good fade, so you might wanna stay long, and watch the resistance breakdown

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???

I agree. My thesis is that those that didn't sell last week are seeing where it all ends up, so the market is being driven by low volume buyers, which could evaporate on the first signs that it might be a dead cat bounce. This would then be compounded by those who were indecisive then entering on the sell side. This is where you get the more damaging correction after one's like last week. I could be proven wrong, as is the case most day's . As with kennas, employment figures out tonight in the US may have a big impact, so people may not want to be exposed over the weekend?.

 

[Beethoven]

Re: XAO Analysis

I haven't got a working understanding of volume characteristics yet but I would have thought that if this was a genuine rally it should have increasing volume, not decreasing???

Of course volume is decreasing at the sight of a correction. People who have sold out are waiting for signs that the correction is over and that the bull is back. Obviously people who are long, volume doesn't matter because they are long and it is possible that they are buying a bit more at a cheaper price. People are also indecisive with the movements of the markets and sit out on the sidelines. I believe that the fundamentals are still good in Australia and that this correction wont be a long one and was only driven because of the correction of the chinese markets which are atm recovering.

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

the last couple of weeks have been a dream for anyone trading the index off support and resistance.

Agree

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

Of course volume is decreasing at the sight of a correction. People who have sold out are waiting for signs that the correction is over and that the bull is back. Obviously people who are long, volume doesn't matter because they are long and it is possible that they are buying a bit more at a cheaper price. People are also indecisive with the movements of the markets and sit out on the sidelines. I believe that the fundamentals are still good in Australia and that this correction wont be a long one and was only driven because of the correction of the chinese markets which are atm recovering.

That is what the charts are telling me, this is just a respose to high rises with a freak sell off in China.